Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Danbury, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:27PM Saturday December 16, 2017 8:59 AM CST (14:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:35AMMoonset 4:36PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ355 Coastal Waters From Freeport To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Out 20 Nm- 438 Am Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from noon cst today through this evening...
Today..East winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Isolated Thunderstorms late.
Tonight..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet after midnight. Patchy fog. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may be severe in the evening.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Areas of fog. A chance of showers.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Areas of fog. Showers likely.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Areas of fog. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..North winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A chance of showers with possible drizzle and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog. Showers likely with possible drizzle and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 438 Am Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Onshore winds will be developing this morning and then quickly strengthening this afternoon in response to a coastal trough of low pressure moving up from the middle texas coast. This system will bring unsettled weather as it moves through the coastal waters. A small craft advisory has been issued for this afternoon and tonight. This disturbance will push east of the area Sunday bringing an end to the rain, but periods of fog will remain a possibility until the next front pushes through on Tuesday or Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Danbury, TX
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location: 29.16, -95.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 161037
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
437 am cst Sat dec 16 2017

Discussion
The upper level trof currently situated over central mexico will
kick out to the northeast and cross texas tonight. As this occurs,
a surface coastal low is expected to develop just southwest of
matagorda bay and take a path parallel to the upper texas coast.

Look for showers and embedded tstms to expand in areal coverage
from the southwest later this afternoon and evening... Then exit
off to the east northeast after 1 am.

Parameters for a good 0.75-1.5" of rainfall with localized higher
amounts will be in place (high pw's, increased large scale lift,
llvl convergent zone, favorable upper jet position). Instability
will be lacking, so widespread severe wx is not expected - but
we'll need to keep a close eye near the immediate coast. Significant
low level turning & shear is depicted in forecast soundings and the
northward extent of a tornadic severe wx potential will be dependent
upon where the coastal low tracks. A track just off the coast
will keep the warm sector and potential for stronger surface based
storms offshore. A track a 10-20 miles further inland would bring
the risk onshore. Guidance is in a variety of camps... Most keeping
the warm sector at the coast or just offshore. But there have
been some that take 64-68f dewpoints as far north as a matagorda
bay-south harris co-liberty line. I went ahead and inserted the
mention of isolated severe in the forecast south of that line for a
narrow timeframe this evening.

Most areas will see a break in precip Sunday as this system departs.

But a lingering moisture axis offshore will begin moving back
inland Sunday night and Monday bringing increased chances of
precipitation back to the region (and sea fog at the coast). Most
all of the guidance has trended towards last nights ECMWF - continuing
precip Mon night, Tuesday and Tuesday night until the next upper
upper trof now digging southward thru california, eventually moves
across north texas. Have bumped pops up quite a bit in that time
period.

The much talked about cold airmass is still penciled in to arrive
Thursday night and Friday. Overrunning precipitation is looking
like a decent possibility, but it's still too early to pin down
temps, precip type, timing with any degree of confidence this far
out. 47

Marine
The generally light winds this morning will be veering strengthening
this afternoon with the development of a strong coastal low pressure
system approaching from the middle tx coast. This system is expected
to produce scattered numerous showers and thunderstorms later in the
afternoon through tonight, with a few of the stronger storms capable
of producing waterspouts through early Sunday morning. Have issued a
small craft advisory starting this afternoon on into midnight.

A brief period of light offshore flow is expected behind this system
will then become onshore by Sunday night. The warmer moist flow will
be moving across the cooler shelf waters... And should result in res-
ult in periods of sea fog through tues (ahead of the next cold front
progged to move off the coast). Moderate to occasionally strong off-
shore winds will prevail through weds.

Looking ahead, onshore winds are forecast to return to the area thur
and strengthen to scec criteria that afternoon through early fri...

all ahead of a strong cold front that is progged to barrel into the
coastal waters Fri afternoon. 41

Aviation
Not planning on a lot of changes with the 12z tafs... With regard to
timing of the onset of the activity later this afternoon early even-
ing. Short-range guidance appears to be on track with the main trof
approaching from the SW tonight and then sweeping to the E NE after
midnight. One issue for the early Sun morning hours may be MVFR ifr
visibilites and ceilings. 41

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 54 45 65 53 66 80 90 0 20 50
houston (iah) 58 48 68 56 70 20 90 10 30 60
galveston (gls) 60 56 64 60 69 20 80 30 50 70

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from noon today to midnight cst tonight for
the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high
island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high
island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LUIT2 7 mi60 min 54°F
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 16 mi48 min NE 8 G 15 56°F 60°F1022.9 hPa
GRRT2 19 mi48 min ENE 9.9 G 13 53°F 52°F1023.3 hPa
GTOT2 24 mi42 min E 8.9 G 13 55°F 58°F1022.2 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 27 mi48 min E 11 G 12 51°F 53°F1023.3 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 29 mi54 min ENE 15 G 17 56°F1022.7 hPa
SGNT2 35 mi48 min NE 6 G 8.9 52°F 54°F1022 hPa
KXIH 36 mi30 min ESE 18 55°F 41°F
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 38 mi48 min ENE 6 G 8 50°F 56°F1023.2 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 39 mi48 min NE 5.1 G 6 51°F 59°F1022.2 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 42 mi70 min E 16 G 19 55°F 61°F2 ft1022.8 hPa (+0.0)42°F
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 44 mi48 min ENE 8.9 G 11 50°F 51°F1023.1 hPa
EMAT2 49 mi48 min NE 6 G 9.9 51°F 57°F1022.1 hPa

Wind History for USCG Freeport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Angleton / Lake Jackson, Brazoria County Airport, TX15 mi67 minNE 610.00 miOvercast51°F39°F66%1022.8 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX19 mi68 minENE 710.00 miOvercast55°F42°F62%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from LBX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N10NE9NE9NE13N9N6NE5NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmNE4NE6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmN3NW3CalmNE5N6N7N7N8N7N9N14N13N13N11N14N9N9
2 days agoCalmCalmSW4CalmSW4S5SW5SW3CalmS3S3S3CalmSW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Point, West Bay, Texas
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Alligator Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:16 AM CST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:42 AM CST     0.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:34 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:29 AM CST     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:35 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:24 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:35 PM CST     0.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.60.70.70.60.50.40.2-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.1-00.20.40.60.70.80.80.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Christmas Point, Christmas Bay, Texas
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Christmas Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:03 AM CST     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:33 AM CST     0.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:34 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:07 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:24 AM CST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:25 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:27 PM CST     0.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.60.70.70.60.50.30.2-0-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.40.60.70.80.80.70.70.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.