Tuesday, October17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Danbury, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:49PM Tuesday October 17, 2017 6:20 AM CDT (11:20 UTC) Moonrise 4:17AMMoonset 4:54PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ355 Coastal Waters From Freeport To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Out 20 Nm- 434 Am Cdt Tue Oct 17 2017
.small craft should exercise caution this morning...
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 feet.
Wednesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 434 Am Cdt Tue Oct 17 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Winds and seas will be decreasing early this morning as high pressure builds in from the north. Winds will be shifting to the east by Wednesday as high pressure moves off to the east. A long easterly fetch will set up across the gulf of mexico Thursday and will continue into the weekend resulting in elevated seas and tides.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Danbury, TX
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location: 29.16, -95.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 170907
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
407 am cdt Tue oct 17 2017

Discussion
Surface ridging extending from the ohio valley southwest into
texas this morning is promoting light northeasterly winds across
the region. These light winds and clear skies have allowed for 4
am cdt temperatures to fall into the mid 40s to mid 50s inland
this morning, with coastal temperatures in the lower 60s. After a
cool start this morning, little to no clouds and dry air in place
today will allow for temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to
low 80s. With average daily temperatures for all four climate
sites running 3-7 degrees above normal for the month of october so
far, these near to below normal high temperatures are certainly
welcome. A listing of these deviations is provided in the climate
section below.

Another cool night is expected tonight as temperatures fall into
the upper 40s to mid 50s under clear skies, but the approach of a
disturbance now 300 miles west of baja california will result in
shortwave ridging building over the region on Wednesday and high
temperatures warming a few degrees into the low to mid 80s.

Additionally, the departure of the surface ridge on Wednesday will
allow for light southerly to southeasterly winds to resume with
moisture advection Wednesday night keeping low temperatures
almost 10 degrees warmer than tonight in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

Continued moisture advection on Thursday morning will allow for a
few showers to stream across the coastal waters and into the
southwestern counties during the day, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible on Friday as the disturbance near baja
california lifts across texas. Can't rule out a few heavy
downpours on Friday as precipitable water values rise into the 1.5
to 1.75 inch range, but storm motions 15-20 mph should keep that
risk for any one area brief.

Divergence begins to increase across texas on Saturday ahead of a
strong upper trough arriving from the west coast, and combined
with daytime heating, this will encourage another round of
scattered showers and thunderstorms across southeast texas during
the day. Mid-level lapse rates steepen ahead of this trough and
with increasing upper level support, what appears to be a warm
front lifting into the region and some marginal 0-6 km shear
(20-25 knots), could see a strong thunderstorm or two develop on
Saturday. As this upper trough swings across the state Saturday
night into Sunday, medium range guidance continues to advertise a
cold front surging across the state and clearing the region on
Sunday with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms
developing along the front. With the parent trough providing
strong upper level forcing, steep mid-level lapse rates, and
increasing shear along and ahead of the front, the threat for
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may exist on Sunday for
southeast texas.

While most of the 00z medium range deterministic guidance appears
to be converging on a solution that the trough will remain open
and progressively sweep across the region on Sunday, have concerns
that model runs have been inconsistent with their treatment of a
possible cut-off low solution (even as recent as the 16 12z ecmwf
advertising it). As a result of this and continued GFS ensemble
support for a cut-off low to develop, have held on to low rain
chances into Sunday night should the trough move through slower or
possibly pinch off into an upper low late in the weekend. Should
current 00z guidance verify, the front will quickly sweep off the
coast by Sunday night with dry weather and seasonable temperatures
to start next week. However, will need to monitor model solutions
(which will hopefully become more consistent once the upper
trough is sampled by the alaska radiosonde observation network
today and the lower 48 sites by the end of the week) as the cut-
off low solution would provide for possibly a slower-moving front,
warmer temperatures, and rain chances extending into next week
longer than currently advertised by the forecast.

Huffman

Marine
Winds remain strong over galveston bay and the gulf waters early
this morning. Daytime heating should help stabilize the thermal
gradient and the pressure gradient is also decreasing so am
expecting winds to subside quickly this morning. Will need to
extend the SCA and scec through part of the morning. NE winds
expected today into tonight with a ridge of high pressure to the
northeast and a weak area of low pressure near the yucatan. The
ridge of high pressure flattens a bit and surface winds will
become east by Wednesday night and gradually increase in speed. A
moderate to possibly strong onshore flow is expected
Thursday Friday as the gradient tightens in response to lee
cyclogenesis. Tide levels will increase on Friday in response to
the persistent onshore flow and tide levels will likely exceed 3.3
feet on Friday. 43

Fire weather
Min rh values this afternoon will fall to between 27-35 percent
along and nnw of i-69 but winds will be considerably lighter
today. The lighter winds should limit the threat for fire weather
today. Moisture levels increase significantly on Wednesday through
the end of the week. 43

Climate
All four primary climate sites are currently reporting above
normal average daily temperatures for the month of october so
far. These anomalies through october 16 are listed below.

Location degrees above normal
(average daily temperatures)
houston iah 4.6 f
houston hou 6.9 f
college station 5.9 f
galveston 3.9 f

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 79 50 84 58 84 0 0 0 0 10
houston (iah) 79 54 83 62 84 0 0 0 10 10
galveston (gls) 79 65 82 70 83 0 0 10 10 10

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 am cdt early this morning for the
following zones: coastal waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high
island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high
island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft should exercise caution until 4 am cdt early this
morning for the following zones: galveston bay.

Discussion... 14
aviation marine... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LUIT2 7 mi50 min NE 15 G 17 65°F 1022.2 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 16 mi50 min N 9.9 G 13 60°F 79°F1022.7 hPa
GRRT2 19 mi50 min NW 18 G 23 64°F 72°F1022.8 hPa
GTOT2 24 mi50 min 62°F 78°F
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 27 mi50 min ENE 17 G 22 64°F 72°F1023.2 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 29 mi50 min NE 16 G 19 74°F1022.2 hPa
SGNT2 35 mi50 min N 9.9 G 13 58°F 77°F1022.1 hPa
KXIH 36 mi45 min E 19 68°F 54°F
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 38 mi50 min NNE 8 G 9.9 58°F 77°F1023.5 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 39 mi50 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 57°F 78°F1022.9 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 42 mi90 min NE 18 G 21 68°F 80°F5 ft1021.8 hPa (-0.0)56°F
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 44 mi50 min NNE 11 G 15 57°F 70°F1022.9 hPa
EMAT2 49 mi50 min N 6 G 8 53°F 74°F1022.1 hPa

Wind History for USCG Freeport, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Angleton / Lake Jackson, Brazoria County Airport, TX15 mi27 minN 510.00 miFair52°F46°F80%1023.3 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX19 mi28 minNNE 1510.00 miFair62°F48°F62%1023.1 hPa

Wind History from LBX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10N10N15N19
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1 day agoN4N3N6N9N10N4N11NE8N10N8
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2 days agoCalmCalmN3E5E9E9E9SE10S9S9SE8SE7SE6SE3SE3SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Alligator Point, West Bay, Texas
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Alligator Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:14 AM CDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:19 PM CDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:53 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:14 PM CDT     1.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:47 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.60.70.911.1110.90.70.70.60.60.70.80.911.1110.80.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Christmas Point, Christmas Bay, Texas
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Christmas Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:17 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:00 AM CDT     1.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:07 PM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:53 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:01 PM CDT     1.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:48 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.50.60.70.91110.90.80.70.60.60.60.70.80.91110.90.80.60.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.