Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Daytona, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:29AMSunset 6:47PM Sunday October 22, 2017 6:43 PM EDT (22:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:55AMMoonset 8:01PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 307 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers in the evening.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 307 Pm Edt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis..A high pressure ridge over the eastern u.s. And western atlantic will retreat eastward early this week ahead of a cold front, which will push across the local atlantic waters late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Behind the front on Wednesday, expect a surge of northwest winds and building seas, which will gradually subside through late week.
Gulf stream hazards..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots with seas up to 6 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Thursday october 19th. 40 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 16 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 9 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Daytona, FL
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location: 29.19, -81.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 222000
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
400 pm edt Sun oct 22 2017

Discussion
Thru tonight... Diurnal convection over the interior will diminish
with sunset. Southeast flow has generated a convergence band off
of grand bahama containing isolated showers. Although model
guidance indicated some drier air lifting back into the area, this
is mainly aloft so there should be sufficient low level moisture
and SE flow to support isolated showers crossing the treasure
coast. Mild low temps holding in the upper 70s along the coast and
low to mid 70s elsewhere which is nearly 10 degrees above normal.

Mon... Deep south southwest flow will develop and this will likely
bring considerable debris cloudiness across the area from
convection over the gulf. Model soundings show layer of dry air
slow to moisten in the mid levels so have stayed below MOS pops.

The considerable high clouds should limit MAX temps to the mid
80s areawide. Sufficient low level moisture will produce scattered
showers and isolated storms but do not expect strong storms as
temps aloft actually warm slightly.

Tue-wed... The first significant cold front this season is
forecast to push through the area Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Low level convergence and sfc heating should produce scattered to
numerous showers and isolated storms along and ahead of the front
tue transiting offshore Tue night. With the best dynamics
remaining north of the area, do not expect a severe threat. Rain
chances will range from 40 percent across the north to 60 percent
south of orlando tue. Have removed rain chances for Wed morning
as activity should push off the treasure coast before sunrise.

Max temps in the lower 80s Tuesday, and low-mid 70s on Wednesday.

Mins in the 70s Monday night, falling back into m50s north l60s
south behind the front, with l50s for most of the area Wednesday
night, even some upper 40s north of I 4.

Previous discussion
Thu-sun... Post frontal high pressure will build eastward across
the gomex and over florida through Friday, then slide offshore
into the atlantic Friday night into this weekend. Serious
disparity arises between the global model guidance with regard to
northward moisture return over florida this weekend. The ecmwf
shows high pressure and onshore flow veering to SE by late Sunday,
while the gfs-gem eject a tropical disturbance northward from the
caribbean across florida, which merges with energy in the
northern stream to drag another frontal boundary through central
fl.

The ECMWF solution was closely followed for days 7-8, rather than
any GFS based solution or blend, as it looks more realistic at this
time. This yields a small chance for coastal showers moving onshore
Friday night, with a slight chance for showers continuing through
this weekend. After cooler than normal conditions again on Thursday,
temps should rebound closer to climo Thursday night-Friday with the
onset of return onshore flow, then remain above climo next weekend.

Aviation
MainlyVFR. May need vcsh for vrb fpr sua overnight for onshore
moving showers. On Monday, moist southerly flow will produce a
higher coverage of shra and isold tsra.

Marine
Tonight... Southeast pressure gradient will support 15 knots with
occasional 15-20 knots across the central and southern waters and
seas up to 6 feet offshore. So will maintain caution headline for
all marine zones except nearshore volusia but even there boating
conditions will be less than favorable.

Winds veer out of the south Monday as the atlantic high pressure
ridge retreats eastward and a strong cold front and pre- frontal
trough approach from the west. Local pressure gradient will
support wind speeds 13-18kt with seas 4ft near shore and 5-6ft
well offshore. Winds veer to southwest and then west through
Tuesday evening as pre-frontal trough passes through the local
waters, with seas of 4-5ft. Behind the trailing frontal passage
Tuesday evening night, expect a N NW wind surge of 20-25 knots
through Wednesday. This will push seas 7-8ft offshore, especially
in the gulf stream, before they subside late Wednesday night
through Thursday night.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 75 85 70 83 10 50 50 40
mco 73 86 71 86 10 60 50 50
mlb 78 86 73 85 10 50 50 60
vrb 77 85 72 85 20 40 50 60
lee 74 85 69 84 10 60 50 30
sfb 74 86 70 85 10 60 50 40
orl 73 85 71 86 10 60 50 50
fpr 77 85 71 85 20 40 50 60

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Johnson kelly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 34 mi59 min ESE 6 80°F 1021 hPa77°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 48 mi44 min ESE 12 G 14 78°F 78°F1018.9 hPa (-1.2)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 58 mi44 min SE 8.9 G 12 80°F 81°F1020.4 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E6
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NE8
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G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL2 mi51 minESE 47.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F77°F85%1018.7 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL9 mi54 minESE 87.00 miClear81°F73°F79%1018.6 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL10 mi57 minSE 1210.00 miA Few Clouds82°F73°F74%1019 hPa

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E5E11E9
G20
CalmCalmE6E6E7E7E7E8E5E6E9
G16
E86S6E846SE7E10
G16
E4
1 day agoNE13NE9E10E11E9E7E10
G17
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G17
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2 days agoN10NE11NE11NE13E6E6CalmE3E8E8E5E4NE8E11E10E17NE14E13E15
G20
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G21
NE15NE14
G19
NE14E13

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:57 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:17 AM EDT     5.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:38 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:00 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:35 PM EDT     4.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.52.51.60.90.60.91.72.83.84.75.154.43.42.41.40.90.81.222.93.74.24.3

Tide / Current Tables for Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida
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Ormond Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:08 AM EDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:10 AM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 09:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:35 PM EDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:48 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.10.20.30.50.60.70.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.20.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.