Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Daytona Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 5:27PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 3:30 PM EST (20:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:11AMMoonset 8:58PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 304 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east late. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 9 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A light chop on the intracoastal waters. Chance of showers.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 304 Pm Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis..Low pressure is forecast to develop over the eastern gulf of mexico on Thursday and move northeast across the florida peninsula Friday. Numerous showers with isolated embedded storms will accompany the low before a cold front brings drier air this weekend. Poor boating conditions are forecast over the weekend, especially in the gulf stream.
Gulf stream hazards..None. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Wednesday november 22nd. 43 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 33 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 28 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 18 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Daytona Beach, FL
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location: 29.19, -81.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 222006
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
306 pm est Wed nov 22 2017

Discussion
High rain chances for thanksgiving day into Friday...

rest of today tonight... Stable northeast flow behind a weak frontal
boundary will keep the area dry this evening as attention shifts
toward developing low pressure over the central and eastern gulf.

The stationary front currently just south of the treasure coast will
begin to lift north overnight, veering winds to the east and then
southeast. Weak convergence along the boundary will combine with
moisture pushing off the atlantic to support small (20-30%) rain
chances along the coast during the overnight.

Thanksgiving day... All of the ingredients appear to be coming
together for a "turkey" of a weather day in east central florida.

Low pressure consolidating out ahead of a sharpening mid upper level
trough will shift slowly into the eastern gulf of mexico by the end
of the day. Enhanced lift on the ascendant side of the trough and
from the right entrance region of an upper jet will provide the
necessary support aloft, while low level surface convergence
accompanies the front that should stall out near the interstate 4
corridor by late morning. With that in mind, expect the greatest
coverage of precipitation to be across our northern areas. However,
even areas further to the south will likely see precipitation at
some point during the day. Rain chances in association with these
features will start before sunrise over lake county, and then spread
steadily south and east through the remainder of the day.

Considerable cloud cover and weak wind fields suggest the threat for
severe weather is negligible, however, temps aloft remain cool and
will support deep convection capable of producing dangerous cloud to
ground lightning strikes.

Thursday night-Friday... A trough aloft extending well southward
into the gulf of mexico will slowly translate eastward while
gradually filling. At the surface, rather weak low pressure
along a quasi-stationary frontal boundary over the eastern gulf
will eventually push across central fl by Fri night and pull the
frontal boundary through the area. The ECMWF shows the low
pushing to our east about 12 hours earlier though, so some model
differences have shown up on the 12z run.

Low pressure moving out of the gulf and across fl always gets our
attention for severe weather potential. In this case, considerable
clouds will limit heating instability while low level winds shear
will not be particularly strong. Nonetheless, temps aloft will be
cold (-12c to -14c at 500mb) so cannot rule out a few strong
storms.

Mos pops continue high each forecast period, in the categorical
range, and the synoptic setup is certainly supportive. Our
numbers for Fri (60 percent) represent a model blend as the faster
ecmwf movement of low pressure would bring drying earlier. The
highest rain amounts should be across our northern sections, along
and to the north of the low pressure track.

Saturday-Wednesday... A cooler and drier airmass will overspread the
area this weekend behind initial front Fri night early Sat and
probably a reinforcing surge late sun. The models quickly veer
the low level flow to onshore on mon. MAX min temps look to be
only a few degrees from average (which are mid-upper 70s and mid-
upper 50s). The breezy onshore flow may start to push a few
atlantic showers ashore mon. As is typical for these return flow
cases, the early week MOS pops are quite low, but will maintain
some slight shower chances for now.

Aviation ContinuedVFR through early Thursday morning. A warm
front will lift north overnight, providing a chance for shra at
the coastal TAF sites and for low stratus over inland aerodromes.

Have opted to include vcsh along the coast and MVFR CIGS across
the interior for now, however, confidence in the evolution of the
stratus is low. Rain chances increase considerably around sunrise
Thursday as numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms push
inland from the gulf of mexico. Deteriorating CIGS vsbys expected
during the day as the showers spread to the south and east through
the day.

Marine
Rest of today tonight... Northeast winds around 10-15 knots will veer
to the east and then southeast as a stationary frontal boundary over
the treasure coast begins to lift back north as a warm front. Seas 3-
4 feet nearshore and 5 feet offshore.

Thanksgiving day... Low pressure will organize over the eastern gulf
of mexico, generating numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms
that will spread from west to east across the peninsula through the
day. Winds out of the south to southeast between 10-15 knots will
support 3-4 feet seas nearshore and up to 5 feet offshore.

Fri-weekend... Wet weather is forecast Fri as a weak low pressure
center over the eastern gulf of mexico moves across central
florida. Winds should be less than 10 knots, except 10-15 knots in
the gulf stream but they could be strong gusty near numerous
showers and isolated storms.

Low pressure will shift northeast by Fri night and drag a cold
front through the waters. Post frontal winds on Sat out of the
northwest look to be around 15 knots then a reinforcing surge of
northerly winds late Sun is indicated with similar speeds. So
while the weather will improve over the weekend, winds look poor
for small craft operation, especially in the gulf stream, where
seas to 6 feet are expected.

Mon... High pressure building to the carolina coast will generate a
breezy northeast-east wind flow and choppy conditions will occur
on all of the atlantic waters.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 65 73 64 74 30 80 70 60
mco 65 75 65 75 20 80 70 60
mlb 68 78 65 78 20 80 60 60
vrb 67 78 65 78 30 70 60 60
lee 64 73 63 73 30 90 70 60
sfb 64 74 64 75 30 80 70 60
orl 64 74 65 74 20 80 70 60
fpr 67 78 63 79 20 70 60 60

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... None.

Short term... Ulrich
long term... .Lascody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 34 mi105 min NNE 8.9 70°F 1016 hPa63°F
41118 47 mi60 min 73°F3 ft
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 47 mi30 min NNE 13 G 15 67°F 70°F1014.9 hPa (-1.2)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 59 mi48 min N 8 G 12

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL1 mi37 minNE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F64°F74%1014.2 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL8 mi1.7 hrsNNE 1010.00 miClear72°F62°F73%1014.2 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL11 mi40 minNE 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F66°F78%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5CalmCalmSW3E3CalmCalmNW5NE76N8CalmCalmCalmW3CalmNW3CalmN6NE8NE11N10NE11NE10
1 day agoE7E7E10
G16
E4E6E8E7E7E6E8E5E4CalmE3E4E5E46E3E5E7SE6
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2 days agoW10NW9NW8N5N7N7N7N6NW6NW7NW9NW8NW5CalmNW6W4NW4NW5E12E9E11
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Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:39 AM EST     0.72 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:05 AM EST     4.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:31 PM EST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:58 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:25 PM EST     3.70 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.821.30.80.71.11.92.83.74.44.74.53.9321.30.80.81.21.92.73.33.73.6

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Daytona Beach Shores
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:38 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:08 AM EST     4.05 feet High Tide
Wed -- 10:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:25 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:58 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:22 PM EST     3.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.51.70.90.40.40.81.62.53.23.843.93.42.51.60.90.50.61.11.82.53.13.53.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.