Monday, January21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Daytona Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 5:54PM Monday January 21, 2019 8:28 AM EST (13:28 UTC) Moonrise 6:39PMMoonset 7:40AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ550 Flagler Beach To Volusia-brevard County Line 0-20 Nm- 354 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
.small craft exercise caution...
Today..North winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. A light chop on the intracoastal waters.
Tuesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 5 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of sprinkles.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Choppy on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. A moderate chop on the intracoastal waters. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 feet. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Slight chance of showers.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet.
AMZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm- 354 Am Est Mon Jan 21 2019
Synopsis..Winds will diminish today as a high pressure ridge passes overhead. However, boating conditions will remain poor to hazardous as the local pressure gradient remains tight enough to support a moderate to fresh northerly breeze. Seas will be rough, especially over the gulf stream as the northerly winds blow directly against the southerly current. High pressure will push east from the ohio valley early today to the eastern seaboard Tuesday. In response, winds will become onshore but will remain fresh to strong through midweek. Another cold front will approach the area into Wednesday night and cross east central florida on Thursday.
Gulf stream hazards..Northwest to north winds 15 to 20 knots with frequent gusts. Seas 6 to 7 feet. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Monday january 21st. 43 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 31 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 27 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 19 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 12 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Daytona Beach, FL
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location: 29.19, -81.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Melbourne, FL
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Fxus62 kmlb 210847
afdmlb
area forecast discussion
national weather service melbourne fl
347 am est Mon jan 21 2019

Discussion
Today-tonight...

a full latitude hi pres ridge extending from hudson bay to the lwr
ms valley will dominate the LCL wx pattern as it fills in rapidly
behind a departing frontal trof over the eastern seaboard. Mid upr
lvl flow behind the ridge axis has a strong zonal component that
will push the axis from its current position acrs the appalachian
range by daybreak Tue with the SRN extension of the axis reaching
the fl straits.

The airmass assocd with the ridge is nothing short of arid: pwat
values off the 21 00z raobs hovering btwn 0.25"-0.50"... H100-h70
mean rh btwn 25-30pct overhead and barely reaching the 50pct mark
over the gulf stream... H85-h50 avg dewpoint depressions btwn 25-30c
along and north of the i-4 corridor, and btwn 30-40c to the south.

Furthermore, the h90-h70 lyr is completely stable under a smothering
25-30c subsidence inversion.

N NW winds will continue thru midday before gradually veering to
n NE this aftn as the ridge axis passes overhead, the to the E ne
overnight as the axis pushes offshore. While the dvlpg onshore
component will allow the cold dry air to modify, it is simply too
dry and stable to support anything more than a sct-bkn marine
stratocu deck over the coastal counties at best. Cold air advection
today due to the prevailing nrly wind component... Blo avg MAX temps
with readings in the m50s l60s along and north of i-4... L m60s to
the south. Onshore component will dominate aft sunset, allowing
overnight temps along the coast to warm considerably from this mrng.

Still cool over the interior with mins in the l m40s, coastal temps
recovering into the u40s m50s.

Tue-wed...

a large area of high pressure along the eastern seaboard early tue
will slowly move seaward. Local winds will veer increasingly
onshore and breezy with the possibility of a few sprinkles
developing primarily over the open atlc waters by afternoon.

Considerable clouds will limit temperature recovery and highs
only in the u60s to l70s can be expected. Flow will veer to
primary sly component Wed with temperature and better moisture
recovery area wide. Highs will make it well into the 70s with the
chc of an isolated morning or afternoon shower developing in a
marginally unstable environment.

Wed night-fri... Next system approaching from the lwr ms valley gulf
region late Wed looks to impact the peninsula late Wed night.

Guid suggests primary rain chcs will unfold from w-e along with a
chance of some embedded storms. Rain chcs should become likely
areawide before daybreak thu, however timing differences exist
with global guid, thus higher pops stretch across Wed night and
thu periods at this time. Post frontal drying on Fri will bring
clearing and cooler conds Fri into sat.

Weekend... Med range guidance keeps a rather progressive pattern
over the srn CONUS with a relatively short window between weather
systems; roughly over the upcoming weekend. Confidence will be a
little lower than normal on a completely favorable weather window
for Sunday, as yet another system approaching in the southern
stream is depicted for early next week. A closed and evolving surface
low over the eastern gulf of mex is depicted just upstream early
next week, and the system may bring the chance of stronger storms
around Sunday Monday.

Aviation Thru 22 12z.

Sfc winds: thru 21 13z... Nw 6-10kts... Coastal sites ocnl g18-22kts.

Btwn 21 13z-21 16z... Bcmg N NW 8-12kts. Btwn 21 18z-21 21z... Bcmg
n NE 8 12kts. Btwn 22 00z-22 03z... Bcmg NE 6-10kts. Btwn 22 06z-
22 09z... Bcmg E NE 6-10kts.

Wx vsbys cigs: thru 22 05z...VFR skc. Aft 22 05z... Coastal sites
sct LCL bkn fl040-060.

Marine
Today-tonight... Brief minor respite from the fresh to strong breeze
that prevailed on Sunday as a strong high pres ridge axis passes
overhead en route to the bahama bank. However, the LCL pgrad will
remain tight enough to support a moderate to fresh N NW breeze this
mrng, veering to N NE by sunset, then E NE overnight. Furthermore,
with the nrly winds blowing against the srly current, conditions in
the gulf stream will be very rough with steep wind waves btwn 4-
6ft... Up to 7ft in the gulf stream... Dominant pds btwn 5-7sec.

While conditions may not meet strict SCA criteria, overall boating
conditions will be poor to hazardous, particularly in the gulf
stream. Furthermore, winds are expected to refreshen out of the E se
on Tue as the region gains the backside of the ridge. As such, will
reconfigure the SCA to cover the treasure coast waters out to 60nm
and the brevard waters btwn 20-60nm. Cautionary statements will
remain in place elsewhere.

Tue-fri... Strength of high pressure centered well north of
florida will keep likelihood of headlines in place for hazardous
winds seas into midweek. Combination of winds seas and swell will
produce 5-7 ft seas over the outer waters and gulf stream
segments. Some improvements are likely late week as broader high
pressure transits just north off the waters.

Preliminary point temps pops
Dab 56 48 67 57 0 0 10 10
mco 61 46 72 57 0 0 10 10
mlb 61 52 70 62 0 0 10 10
vrb 63 54 72 62 0 0 10 20
lee 60 44 69 55 0 0 0 10
sfb 59 45 69 57 0 0 10 10
orl 60 47 69 58 0 0 10 10
fpr 64 54 71 63 0 0 10 20

Mlb watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Am... Small craft advisory for winds until 4 am est early this morning
for flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line 0-20 nm-
volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 0-20 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Tuesday for sebastian inlet
to jupiter inlet 0-20 nm-sebastian inlet to jupiter inlet
20-60 nm-volusia-brevard county line to sebastian inlet 20-
60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for
flagler beach to volusia-brevard county line 20-60 nm.

Short term... Bragaw
long term... .Pendergrast


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 34 mi104 min WNW 2.9 36°F 1026 hPa33°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 47 mi89 min NW 7 G 8.9 37°F 57°F1024.8 hPa (+1.6)
TRDF1 - 8721604 - Trident Pier, FL 59 mi59 min NW 13 G 15 43°F 66°F1025.7 hPa

Wind History for Trident Pier, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL1 mi36 minWNW 510.00 miFair37°F34°F89%1024.9 hPa
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL8 mi39 minWNW 510.00 miFair36°F35°F100%1025.1 hPa
New Smyrna Beach Municipal Airport, FL11 mi42 minNW 610.00 miFair37°F32°F81%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from DAB (wind in knots)
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W8W8NW9NW6W6W6W5NW8NW6NW7NW5NW5NW6NW5
1 day agoS4S6S12S9
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2 days agoNW33N45NE6NE6E6NE7E7CalmE3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach (Ocean), Florida
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Daytona Beach (Ocean)
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Mon -- 12:17 AM EST     Full Moon
Mon -- 01:12 AM EST     -1.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:39 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:41 AM EST     5.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:06 PM EST     -0.87 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:39 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:02 PM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.6-1.1-0.901.42.94.35.15.34.73.520.6-0.4-0.9-0.60.31.52.83.74.13.82.91.6

Tide / Current Tables for Daytona Beach Shores, Sunglow Pier, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Melbourne, FL (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Melbourne, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.