Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Horseshoe Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:41PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:37 PM EST (20:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:46PMMoonset 11:44PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ775 Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 201 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Tonight..Northwest winds 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Rain in the evening, then slight chance of rain after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds.
Friday..North winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Sunday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 201 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis..Northwest winds will remain moderate to strong today and tonight with exercise caution conditions in the nearshore waters and advisory conditions in the offshore waters. Winds will remain elevated through Friday then a decrease in winds and seas heading into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horseshoe Beach, FL
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location: 29.2, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 141943
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
243 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Near term [through tonight]
So far this afternoon, the isentropic lift has been focused across
the northwestern and southwestern thirds of the forecast area, with
mostly dry conditions in between from panama city to tallahassee.

However, this area is still expected to fill in by late afternoon
into the overnight hours as the upper low over arkansas pushes
northeastward and divergence aloft increases.

After midnight, drier air will begin to push in from west to east as
the lift moves out. Low-level cold air advection will push
temperatures well into the 30s across the western portions of the
forecast area by morning. Expect to see mid 30s for portions of the
central panhandle and SE alabama by sunrise.

Short term [Thursday through Friday night]
A small window for light rain will exist early Thursday across the
florida big bend before drier air infiltrates the entire area. The
low pressure system will continue to move northeast and away from
the area with surface high pressure building in from texas.

Clearing skies and light winds will allow temperatures to fall
into the low to mid 30s Thursday night. If winds can become calm
there is a potential for frost but as it stands now the high is
further west for that to happen but will need to be watched.

Plenty of sunshine but cool conditions as we head into Friday with
highs around 60 degrees.

Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]
Surface high pressure will move east and weaken this weekend as a
trough moves into the southern plains. This will support a weak
frontal passage Monday into Tuesday with high pressure moving
across the mid south. Very little moisture available so expect a
dry passage with just an increase in cloudiness. Moderating
temperatures through this period with near 70 for highs by the end
of the weekend and lows in the mid 40s.

Aviation
[through 18z Thursday]
rain and low CIGS will continue to spread across all terminals
through the afternoon and overnight. Conditions have already
deteriorated at kvld, kaby, and kdhn. Low CIGS and rain will move
into ktlh and kecp by mid afternoon. The rain should end from west
to east between midnight and 6am, with low CIGS lingering a couple
hours after the rain ends.

Marine
Northwest winds will remain moderate to strong today and tonight
with exercise caution conditions in the nearshore waters and
advisory conditions in the offshore waters. Winds will remain
elevated through Friday then a decrease in winds and seas heading
into the weekend.

Fire weather
Dry air will move into the region by Friday. Rh values will remain
above the critical red flag threshold. Low dispersion indices below
20 are possible tomorrow afternoon in the eastern big bend.

Hydrology
One to two additional inches of rainfall is possible through
tonight with this low pressure system departing from west to east
tonight into Thursday. Dry weather is expected the rest of this
period.

There are some river basins, especially across the florida
panhandle, that are in action stage with forecasts into flood such
as the chipola, apalachicola, and the choctawhatchee near bruce. The
kinchafoonee creek may also reach flood stage over the next few days
in southern georgia. In the longer range, the flint river is
expected to eventually rise into action stage due to increasing
flows from moderate to heavy rain in central georgia.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 46 55 35 60 38 100 0 0 0 0
panama city 42 55 39 60 44 90 0 0 0 0
dothan 36 49 33 58 38 100 0 0 0 0
albany 46 52 35 59 38 100 10 0 0 0
valdosta 50 56 35 58 38 100 10 0 0 0
cross city 55 62 36 61 38 80 20 0 0 0
apalachicola 46 58 38 61 43 100 0 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Thursday for waters from
suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl
from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Camp
short term... Scholl
long term... Scholl
aviation... Camp
marine... Scholl
fire weather... Mcd
hydrology... Scholl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 47 mi37 min NNE 4.1 G 7 60°F 1018.1 hPa (-2.5)60°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi37 min NE 9.9 G 12 75°F 1016.2 hPa (-3.0)68°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 50 mi37 min NNE 15 G 16 63°F 1018.4 hPa (-2.3)60°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL54 mi62 minNE 810.00 miOvercast66°F63°F91%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW5W3CalmN3N13
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N6N10NE8N4N5NE6NE5NE4NE6NE8--NE7NE7NE9NE11NE7NE8NE7
1 day agoS9
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SW6SW5S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4SE4S4CalmS3S3S5S8S10SW10S9S10S12
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2 days agoNE8NE8NE7NE8NE8NE8NE5NE7NE7NE6NE7NE5NE6E6NE5E4NE5E6E5SE6S11S11S8
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:28 AM EST     2.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:34 PM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:43 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:06 PM EST     2.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.92.22.52.62.62.52.21.91.51.10.90.70.70.81.21.622.32.42.42.221.8

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:22 AM EST     2.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:28 PM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:00 PM EST     2.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.92.22.52.72.62.52.21.81.51.10.80.70.70.91.21.72.12.42.52.42.221.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.