Wednesday, April25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Horseshoe Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 8:12PM Wednesday April 25, 2018 7:47 PM EDT (23:47 UTC) Moonrise 3:04PMMoonset 3:24AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ775 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 231 Pm Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Tonight..West winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night and Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of rain Thursday night.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds 10 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 231 Pm Edt Wed Apr 25 2018
Synopsis.. Winds will generally range from 10 to 15 knots through the weekend with resultant seas of 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance for showers Thursday night into early Friday morning.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horseshoe Beach, FL
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location: 29.2, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 251836
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
236 pm edt Wed apr 25 2018

Near term [through tonight]
An upper level low over the central plains will sweep southeast to
the lower mississippi valley by 12z Thursday. The associated cold
front will be pushing across central and southwest alabama at that
time. Ahead of the front, high pressure will remain in control of
our weather through the overnight with partly cloudy skies. After a
pleasant afternoon of temperatures in the upper 70s to around 80
degrees, overnight lows will drop in the mid to upper 50s inland,
with lower 60s near the coast.

Short term [Thursday through Friday night]
The upper level shortwave currently centered over kansas will
continue to quickly move southeastward, bringing a brief end to
quiet weather across portions of the tri-state region on Thursday.

Given the quick movement of this system and the likelihood of the
jet streak rounding the base of the trough and lifting the system
northeastward, rain chances will be confined to mainly our
alabama and georgia counties. Despite this, there will be a period
from mid to late Thursday afternoon where several strong storms
will be possible across southeastern alabama and
southwest southcentral georgia. Moisture will be sufficient, as
pwats are forecast to recover to 1.25 to 1.50" across these areas.

Uninhibited diabatic heating will allow for pockets of cape
ranging from 500 to perhaps as much as 1000 j kg as depicted by
some of the latest model guidance. This combined with 40 to 50 kts
of deep layer shear will support robust convection, with the
strongest storms capable of yielding damaging wind gusts. Given
last weekend's event, it is worth noting that shear profiles
across southeast alabama and southern georgia will likely be
unidirectional, which is not conducive for any rotating storms or
tornadoes.

This system will quickly clear the region late Thursday night early
Friday with another upper level shortwave trough on it's heels. This
feature will traverse the region Friday afternoon evening. However,
with mid level moisture largely being cleared out of the area by the
previous system, this feature will likely only yield cloudy
conditions across the region. Temperature wise, expect highs
ranging from the mid 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid 50s to low
60s.

Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]
A trough centered over the central great lakes will be ejected
eastward late this weekend, opening the door for deep layer ridging
across much of the eastern u.S. Through the end of the period. Dry
conditions are expected with temperatures gradually warming through
the period.

Aviation [through 18z Thursday]
Vfr conditions will prevail through the TAF cycle. Northwest winds
will become gusty this afternoon. Winds will drop off overnight
before becoming even gustier on Thursday. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms, some possibly strong will develop in this northwest
flow on Thursday. Most of this activity will hold off until after
this TAF period, but felt it was prudent to indicate the potential
impacts to the dhn and aby terminals as early as midday tomorrow.

Marine
Winds will generally range from 10 to 15 knots through the weekend
with resultant seas of 2 to 3 feet. Slight chance for showers
Thursday night into early Friday morning.

Fire weather
Aside from high dispersion values Thursday afternoon, there are no
other fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Rainfall amounts with Thursday's system will generally be less
than a half of an inch and remain confined to a small area
northwest of a line from dothan through albany. Thereafter, no
rain is expected through early next week. Thus, flooding is not a
concern at this time.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 57 81 56 77 54 0 20 10 0 0
panama city 62 75 58 73 58 0 20 0 0 0
dothan 57 76 53 74 53 0 50 0 0 0
albany 56 79 54 75 53 0 60 10 0 0
valdosta 56 81 57 77 53 0 20 20 0 0
cross city 58 80 60 78 55 0 0 30 10 0
apalachicola 62 76 60 74 58 0 10 10 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through late tonight for coastal bay-
coastal gulf.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Wool
short term... Pullin
long term... Pullin
aviation... Wool
marine... Pullin
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 47 mi48 min WSW 16 G 17 70°F 1012.3 hPa (-0.4)60°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi48 min W 8.9 G 14 71°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.7)58°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 50 mi48 min WNW 22 G 24 68°F 1012.7 hPa (-1.0)59°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL54 mi53 minWSW 810.00 miFair72°F59°F64%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW5SW5SW4SW4W4W4W3CalmNW4W4NW5NW7NW8W7SW7W6W12SW12W12
G15
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1 day agoSW4S4S5SW5SW5S4SW4SW3W4SW3CalmCalmCalmNW5CalmSW13
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2 days agoE8E7SE7SE7SE5SE3SE3S5S4CalmS7SE4S6S6S6S11S10
G17
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S12SW10SW7
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Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:52 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:10 PM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:14 PM EDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:06 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:56 PM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.31.81.20.70.30.20.40.91.52.12.62.82.72.421.61.211.11.41.92.42.8

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 05:29 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:53 AM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:56 PM EDT     1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:44 PM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.421.510.60.30.30.61.21.82.42.932.82.41.91.51.111.21.522.52.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.