Sunday, April30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Horseshoe Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 8:16PM Sunday April 30, 2017 12:49 PM EDT (16:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:50AMMoonset 11:51PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ775 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1016 Am Edt Sun Apr 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm edt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Southeast winds around 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Tonight..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..West winds 10 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 knots. Seas 1 foot building to 2 to 3 feet after midnight. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 1016 Am Edt Sun Apr 30 2017
Synopsis..Moderate to strong southeast to south winds will continue across the coastal waters through Monday ahead of an approaching cold front. Advisory conditions are expected at times with the worst conditions west of apalachicola. This will lead to high surf...strong rip currents...and slightly above-normal tides. Much lower winds and seas are expected by mid-week with some increase expected by the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horseshoe Beach, FL
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location: 29.2, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 301414
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1014 am edt Sun apr 30 2017

Update
Extensive CU field has developed across most of the area ahead of
a squall line located across ms/la. Low level wind fields have
increased substantially with breezy conditions expected today.

Made a few tweaks to sky to increase clouds based on satellite,
increase winds based on current conditions, and add a slight
chance of rain and isolated tstorms across SE al and SW ga.

No changes to temperatures with highs in the mid/upper 80s and
isolated areas around 90 degrees.

Prev discussion [644 am edt]
Near term [through today]
One more quiet weather day is ahead for the region, as deep layer
high pressure continues to have an influence across the region. A
powerful upper level low to the west, currently located over the
tx/ok panhandles, will continue to move east northeastward through
the day and begin to really break down the ridge in place across
the region later this afternoon and this evening. The approaching
system will yield increasing winds across the region later this
morning, with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph and occasional gusts
up to 25 mph expected by this afternoon. Otherwise, partly to
mostly cloudy skies will linger through the day, inhibiting
daytime heating to an extent. Highs will range from the mid to
upper 80s west and upper 80s to low 90s across eastern portions of
the area.

Short term [tonight through Tuesday]
For tonight into early Monday, there still remains a marginal risk
of severe weather, mainly across southeast alabama and the florida
panhandle. A squall line will be approaching the area tonight.

Guidance indicates a small area of unstable air will persist ahead
of it into the far western portions of our area with sufficient
wind shear to maintain the marginal risk of mainly damaging
winds. The squall line is expected to continue gradually weakening
as it moves eastward with the severe weather threat decreasing
farther to the east. Drier and cooler conditions will move into
the area behind the front on Monday night with overnight lows
dipping into the mid to upper 50s across most of the area except
the southeast big bend, although that's just getting back to
average for this time of year. Afternoon highs on Tuesday are
expected to be mostly in the mid 80s.

Long term [Tuesday night through Sunday]
Mainly dry conditions are expected on Wednesday. The GFS and the
ecmwf have come into better agreement on the 00z cycle that
Thursday will be the wet day across the area as another upper
level trough and cold front affect the southeast states. There
will likely be sufficient instability and shear for organized
convection, and a chance of severe weather can't be ruled out.

Both models move the system eastward for Friday and show dry
weather for next weekend, at least for this cycle, although there
has been some flip-flopping from run to run with this system. Near
average temperatures are expected behind the system.

Aviation [through 12z Monday]
Vfr conditions prevail at all TAF sites at this hour, with the
exception of vld. Expect CIGS to lift there over the next few
hours. Gusty southeasterly winds are expected by late morning,
with speeds generally from 15 to 20kts and occasional gusts to
25kts.

Marine
Moderate to strong southeast to south winds will continue across
the coastal waters through Monday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Advisory conditions are expected at times with the worst
conditions west of apalachicola. This will lead to high surf,
strong rip currents, and slightly above-normal tides. Much lower
winds and seas are expected by mid-week with some increase
expected by the end of the week.

Fire weather
Twenty foot winds are expected to exceed 15mph out of the south
across the region by late morning and remain elevated through this
evening. Transport winds will also be elevated, yielding high
dispersion values across much of the region from late morning
through the afternoon hours. However, rh's will remain above
critical thresholds, precluding red flag conditions.

Chances for wetting rains will increase late tonight through Monday.

Dry conditions will resume on Tuesday, with rh's potentially
approaching critically low thresholds once again.

Hydrology
Rainfall amounts will generally be in the 0.50 to 1 inch range
from tallahassee north and westward with lesser amounts to the
south and east. Another system is likely on Thursday with some
heavier totals possible. However, the risk of river flooding is
low given the recent dry conditions and relatively low river
levels.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 86 71 78 57 86 / 0 20 70 20 10
panama city 85 73 74 61 81 / 10 60 80 10 10
dothan 87 69 74 54 85 / 20 70 80 10 0
albany 90 71 77 54 83 / 10 30 80 20 10
valdosta 91 71 82 58 85 / 20 20 60 50 10
cross city 91 71 83 65 84 / 10 10 20 40 20
apalachicola 81 73 76 62 82 / 0 30 50 20 10

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... High rip current risk from Monday morning through Monday
afternoon for coastal franklin-inland gulf.

High rip current risk through Monday afternoon for coastal bay-
coastal gulf-south walton.

High surf advisory until 5 am cdt Monday for south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for apalachee
bay or coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee
river fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from ochlockonee river
to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from
suwannee river to keaton beach out 20 nm-waters from
suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Monday for coastal waters
from apalachicola to destin fl out 20 nm-waters from
apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Update... Scholl
near term... Pullin
short term... Dvd
long term... Dvd
aviation... Pullin
marine... Dvd
fire weather... Scholl
hydrology... Dvd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 47 mi50 min SSE 20 G 25 79°F 1018.7 hPa (+0.9)
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi50 min SSE 15 G 17 79°F 1019.5 hPa (+0.6)70°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 50 mi50 min SE 20 G 22 75°F 1017.7 hPa (+0.5)72°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL54 mi55 minS 11 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy86°F66°F52%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4E9S7SW4W8SW4NW5N3CalmSE3SE3SE6SE7SE5SE5E4SE4SE4SE3SE6S8S11
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1 day agoS10S9SW10
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SW13SW10SW7W5W5NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE5SE4SE4SE4SE5S9S9SE7SE6
2 days agoSW16
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SW8SW8W3W4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3S4SE4SE4S4S5S8SW8S7
G16

Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
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Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:47 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:43 AM EDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:11 PM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:09 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.30.31.11.92.52.72.62.421.71.41.41.62.22.83.33.53.432.41.60.90.3

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:53 AM EDT     2.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:58 AM EDT     1.39 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:32 PM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.5-0.10.61.52.22.72.92.72.31.91.51.41.622.63.23.63.63.32.721.20.5-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.