Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Horseshoe Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:32AMSunset 6:01PM Thursday January 17, 2019 1:08 PM EST (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 2:45PMMoonset 3:41AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ775 Expires:201901172130;;497237 Fzus52 Ktae 171544 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 1044 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-172130- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1044 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..South winds 20 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Protected waters choppy. Rain and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Protected waters rough. Slight chance of rain.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet in the afternoon. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1044 Am Est Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis.. Relatively calm conditions will persist across coastal waters through Friday. The approach of a storm system this weekend will yield an increase in winds and seas through the weekend, with advisory level conditions possible. Showers and Thunderstorms expected Saturday night through Sunday before calmer conditions resume on Monday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Horseshoe Beach, FL
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location: 29.2, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 171803
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
103 pm est Thu jan 17 2019

Aviation
[through 18z Friday]
a period of MVFR CIGS is possible at dhn and aby overnight.

Otherwise,VFR should prevail through the period with light rain
moving in from the northwest by Friday afternoon at dhn and aby.

Winds will be light.

Prev discussion [920 am est]
Near term [through today]
Weak ridge of surface high pressure will remain in place through the
period with zonal flow aloft. As a result, quiet weather is expected
again today, with temperatures warming into the mid 60s across the
area.

Short term [tonight through Sunday]
Upper level pattern begins to shift by the week's end, with slight
chances of showers returning to the wiregrass Friday as a weak mid-
level impulse traverses the region. The noticeable pattern shift
will come on Saturday afternoon and evening, as a potent storm
system approaches the region from the west. Operational guidance
remains consistent regarding the timing of this system, as the
greatest chances for showers and storms are expected late Saturday
evening into the overnight hours. Given the expected progressive
nature of this system, flooding will not be a threat. However, a
strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out at this time. While
instability will be a limiting factor with this system, cape
values of 250-500 j kg is sufficient to support storms capable of
yielding wind damage given 850mb winds of 50 kts+. While there are
still some details that need to pan out for this to occur,
attention is warranted as this system approaches. Expect showers
and storms to clear the region on Sunday, with noticeably cooler
conditions in place. Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 40s
to mid 50s.

Long term [Sunday night through Thursday]
The coldest air of the season will be felt on Sunday night as
temperatures plummet into the upper 20s to low 30s across the
region. Be sure to take care of the 4 ps: people, pets, plants, and
pipes! Quiet weather will resume with temperatures moderating
through mid-week prior to another frontal system approaching the
region by the Wednesday Thursday timeframe.

Marine
Relatively calm conditions will persist across coastal waters
through Friday. The approach of a storm system this weekend will
yield an increase in winds and seas through the weekend, with
advisory level conditions possible. Showers and thunderstorms
expected Saturday night through Sunday before calmer conditions
resume on Monday.

Fire weather
Outside of possible low dispersions across portions of north florida
this afternoon, hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected
through the next several days. Wetting rains will return to the
region late Saturday into Sunday.

Hydrology
Area rivers continue to recede across the region. The next
appreciable chance for accumulating rainfall comes Saturday evening
into Sunday, as another frontal system pushes through the area.

Rainfall totals will generally range from 0.75 to 1.5 inches across
the area, limiting the flood threat.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 48 71 54 71 49 10 10 10 40 90
panama city 56 69 59 69 46 10 20 10 70 80
dothan 50 68 57 70 42 30 30 20 70 80
albany 49 67 55 70 47 20 30 20 50 90
valdosta 47 69 52 72 51 0 10 10 20 90
cross city 45 72 51 74 54 0 0 0 10 90
apalachicola 54 68 59 68 49 0 10 0 40 90

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Pullin
short term... Pullin
long term... Pullin
aviation... Barry
marine... Pullin
fire weather... Pullin
hydrology... Pullin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 47 mi68 min SW 6 G 7 57°F 1025.6 hPa (-0.5)43°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi68 min SSE 4.1 G 4.1 57°F 1025.5 hPa (-0.5)41°F
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 50 mi68 min SE 8 G 8.9 59°F 1025.3 hPa (+0.0)47°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL54 mi33 minESE 410.00 miFair63°F32°F32%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from CTY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW6NW6N3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4SE6SE5
1 day agoN7N7N7N6N6N3N4N4N4N5N5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN5NE6NE5E3
2 days agoN9N6NE10N9N8N4N3NW6N6N6N6NW5NW6NW5NW3N6NW5N6NW5NW5N7N6N6N8

Tide / Current Tables for Pepperfish Keys, Florida
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Pepperfish Keys
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:39 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:06 AM EST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:28 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:43 AM EST     2.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:49 PM EST     1.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:18 PM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.30.70.1-0.3-0.4-0.30.10.71.422.42.52.31.91.61.31.21.41.82.22.52.72.7

Tide / Current Tables for Suwannee River entrance, Florida
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Suwannee River entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:37 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:00 AM EST     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:37 AM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:43 PM EST     1.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:58 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:12 PM EST     2.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.20.60.1-0.3-0.4-0.30.20.81.52.12.52.52.31.91.51.31.31.41.82.22.62.72.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.