Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grand Isle, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 6:24PM Friday October 20, 2017 11:20 AM CDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:44AMMoonset 6:20PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Coastal Waters From Port Fourchon La To Lower Atchafalaya River La Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 949 Am Cdt Fri Oct 20 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..East winds near 10 knots becoming north late in the evening, then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers through the day.
Monday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas to 6 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 949 Am Cdt Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain anchored over the southeast into the weekend. A cold front will move across the coastal waters Sunday night into early Monday. High pressure will then rebuild over the coastal waters next week in the wake of the front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grand Isle, LA
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location: 29.2, -90.05     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 201312
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
812 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017

Sounding discussion...

the sounding is still stable and overall dry this morning. There
is a 10 f radiation inversion in the first 1000 ft and an elevated
inversion above at 800 mb. Stronger easterly flow will result in
more moisture return today and spot showers, mainly near the
south louisiana coast. Winds are at 20 kts already just above the
surface.

Krautmann

Prev discussion issued 333 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017
synopsis...

surface high currently centered over the appalachian mountains.

Low pressure was centered over the canadian rockies with a cold
front down the lee side of the rockies. An inverted surface trough
was located over the western gulf of mexico. Upper ridging was
currently centered over the local area. There was a line of
thunderstorms associated with the trough over the western gulf,
but those are moving toward the texas coast. Temperatures are
quite a bit milder this morning with most locations seeing
temperatures in the 60s at 3 am.

Short term...

upper ridge and surface high will continue to move eastward today
and Saturday, as the frontal system to the west moves out of the
rockies. This will allow surface winds to gain more of a
southeasterly component, increasing moisture across the area.

Current precipitable water values in the 0.7 to 0.8 inch range
will effectively double by Saturday afternoon. An easterly wave
moving around the periphery of the upper ridge will bring chances
for showers to far southern portions of the area today and
tonight. As the cold front and upper trough approach from the west
on Saturday, there will be a better potential for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. Best forcing will remain northwest
of the area. Shear is rather limited, so, while a few storms could
become strong, most should stay below severe limits.

On Sunday, the upper trough and a surface prefrontal trough will
approach the area. Capes around 1500, lifted indices of -6 and
lapse rates around 6.5 should be conducive to some strong storms,
but shear will remain weak and wet bulb zero values of nearly
13,000 feet should indicate a low, but not zero, threat of severe
weather. Will carry likely to categorical pops across the area on
Sunday. The associated cold front looks to move through the local
area overnight Sunday night, possibly as late as after sunrise
Monday along the mississippi coast. Could be some lingering rain
patches behind the frontal passage going into Monday.

Expect much above normal temperatures through the weekend,
especially at night, with lows in the 70s for much of the area
Saturday and Sunday mornings. No major differences in model
guidance numbers prior to Sunday. Will trend a little toward the
cooler guidance for highs on Sunday. 35
long term...

behind the front, a deep upper trough will cover much of the
eastern half of the country for much of the first half of the work
week. Early showers Monday will be the last substantive chance of
rain until at least next weekend. Cold air will get reinforced
Tuesday, making for a fairly cool middle of the week. Temperatures
will return to near normal levels by Thursday or Friday. 35
aviation...

vfr category conditions are generally expected at each of the
terminals through the TAF forecast period. There will be small
chances for convection to impact khum this afternoon and khum, kmsy
and knew tonight. Patchy light fog may also affect the more fog
prone TAF sites late tonight and early Saturday morning. 11
marine...

moderate to occasionally strong easterly flow will continue across
the coastal waters through Saturday. This will result in exercise
caution conditions that may flirt with small craft advisory criteria
at times, at least over the open gulf waters. The winds will ease
and shift to the southeast Sunday in advance of a cold front that
will move through the coastal waters Sunday night into early Monday.

Moderate to strong offshore flow will develop in the wake of this
front that will persist into the middle of the next work week. 11
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 84 65 84 70 0 10 40 30
btr 85 69 85 72 0 10 60 40
asd 84 69 84 73 10 20 50 30
msy 84 72 84 74 10 30 50 30
gpt 83 70 83 73 0 10 30 30
pql 84 68 83 71 0 10 30 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 7 mi122 min ENE 8 G 9.9 76°F 76°F1020.2 hPa
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 22 mi126 min SE 12 G 13 79°F 3 ft1020.1 hPa
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 39 mi140 min ESE 11 G 12 80°F 1020.1 hPa (+0.9)69°F
PILL1 42 mi122 min ESE 8 G 11 79°F 79°F1020.2 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 45 mi122 min ENE 2.9 G 7 72°F 74°F1020.9 hPa

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA20 mi45 minENE 510.00 miFair77°F68°F75%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from XPY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E11NE12E13NE10NE13NE10
G15
NE9NE7NE7E8E10NE8NE7NE8NE10N7N10NE12NE16NE14
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1 day agoNE11
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NE9N6NE8N8N8N7N9NE12NE15NE14NE11NE13E11E9
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2 days agoNE15
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Tide / Current Tables for Caminada Pass (bridge), Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Caminada Pass (bridge)
Click for Map
Fri -- 07:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:43 AM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:20 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.90.90.80.80.70.60.50.40.40.30.30.30.40.40.50.50.50.60.60.70.80.80.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Bayou Rigaud, Grand Isle, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Bayou Rigaud
Click for Map
Fri -- 07:04 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 08:59 AM CDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:20 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 10:59 PM CDT     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.110.90.80.70.60.60.60.60.60.70.70.80.90.911.11.21.21.31.31.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.