Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jamaica Beach, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:24PM Saturday November 17, 2018 5:14 AM CST (11:14 UTC) Moonrise 2:19PMMoonset 1:16AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ355 Coastal Waters From Freeport To Matagorda Ship Channel Tx Out 20 Nm-coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 320 Am Cst Sat Nov 17 2018
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. A chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 7 feet. Showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 320 Am Cst Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Light onshore winds will prevail early on today as high pressure drifts away to the east. Southerly/southeasterly winds will increase Saturday afternoon into Sunday ahead of the next cold front. The front should push off the coast early Monday with winds and seas increasing from the northeast.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jamaica Beach, TX
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location: 29.2, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 171007
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
407 am cst Sat nov 17 2018

Discussion
In short, get outside today and enjoy the near normal
temperatures. Below normal temperatures will return behind a cold
front on Sunday and persist through thanksgiving with a return to
near normal temperatures by the end of the holiday week. Rain
chances look highest in the Sunday Monday time frame with the
front and coastal trough development and again Wednesday with
another upper level trough and coastal trough system.

Near term [through today]
Temperatures this morning range from the low 40s to the low 50s
with a solid deck of cirrus. Combination of high clouds and very
light southerly winds will limit radiational cool the rest of the
morning. There may be some patchy fog in the usual rural areas.

Surface analysis has the cold front pushing into the tx ok
panhandle SW kansas. High pressure has moved east so southerly
winds will continue ahead of the front today with some moisture
advection.

Looking aloft at the upper levels of the atmosphere, southern
branch of the jet continues across the southern u.S. With a ridge
out west and broad troughing over the northern tier states. There
was a good shortwave over the inter-mountain west that should
continue to track SE towards the rockies.

Overall there are not really any forecast concerns for today other
than to monitor high temperatures for the low 70s.

Short term [Sunday through Monday]
Main changes to the forecast in the Sunday to Monday time frame
is for better timing of the cold front and then increased rain
chances. Based on upstream sounding analysis and then comparing to
several model sounding data, the airmass coming south should be
fairly shallow when it arrives in SE texas on Sunday. The NAM 3km
nest, WRF arw nmm and texas tech WRF all seem to have a better
handle on the front than the other models. A blend of these models
was used to establish temperature trends for Sunday both ahead of
and behind the front. Ideally I would like to use the higher
resolution models for the temps behind the front and the more
synoptic models for temperatures ahead of the front. There very
well could be a 10 degree temperature gradient across harris
county on Sunday. Temperatures then stay in the 50s for most of
the area on Monday with cloud cover and rain chances expected.

Rain chances increase from west to east on Sunday as the front
slides into the region and meets up with decent moisture advection
ahead of it. Shallow front may also support elevated convection
although most unstable CAPE values are not all that great. Model
sounding still show some decent lapse rates aloft so cannot rule
out some thunderstorms along the coast. Higher rain chances hold
on for Monday as the aforementioned shortwave in the rockies
shears out over the plains and a jet streak with its right
entrance region over the area moves east late Monday. There may
also be a left exit region moving over the NW gulf on Monday with
that southern jet branch. In the end this should support some
coastal trough low development and then isentropic lift over the
frontal surface for higher rain chances mainly along the coast for
Monday. Rain chances decrease from south to north across the
area.

Overall do not see a severe weather threat or heavy rainfall
threat although there could be some areawide 1 inch rainfall
amounts for the two day period. This should not cause any flooding
problems but may see some localized ponding of water on streets
or typical low lying areas.

Overpeck

Long term [Tuesday through Saturday]
Let's be honest the only time frame of the forecast that anyone
cares about is the day before thanksgiving and thanksgiving. And
i'm sure folks are wondering about that severe weather flood
event on a holiday jinx curse that we seem to be stuck in for se
texas. Wednesday into Thursday still looks wet but for the most
part narrowed down to Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thanksgiving
day does not look that bad since that is when the upper level
trough will be moving out of the area. This could have some travel
impacts for the area so you do want to pay attention to the
forecast and plan accordingly how to get to grandma's house.

Upper low west of the current ridge over the pacific looks to
undercut this ridge Tuesday and move into texas on Wednesday.

There is a pretty good jet streak following it that increases nw
flow aloft Wednesday night. Large scale ascent should be at its
peak over the area basically from Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night. The ECMWF seems to be a touch faster with this
system than the GFS and timing issues are to be expected since
this system is coming from the pacific. Overall we still think the
main coastal low that forms should remain offshore but the GFS is
trying to be a pain and brings the warm sector airmass just inland
late Wednesday. The ECMWF keeps the coastal low and warm sector
offshore and thank goodness because that is where the ecmwf
produces a bullseye of 4-5 inches in 6 hours. Overall given the
isentropic lift and meager elevated instability, we still think
the area could get another 1-2 inches of rain with this event on
top of the 1 inch of rain expected earlier in the week. At this
time it is hard to say if any antecedent conditions will play a
role in the flood potential but certainly something to keep in
mind doing the forecast next week. Rain chances should end quickly
Thursday morning and that is even with the slower gfs.

Temperatures for the week should stay below normal given the cold
airmass that moves into the area to start the week. Cloud cover
and rain should keep the airmass from modifying much. Temperatures
do increase for the end of the week closer to normal since the
series of short wave troughs will come to an end with zonal flow.

Overpeck

Marine
Winds are becoming southeasterly over the waters tonight as high
pressure moves off to the east. These winds remain light, and
resulting seas are low. However, as a coastal trough develops by
Sunday morning, look for winds to continue to back more towards
easterly and rain chances will increase.

A cold front moves into the area Sunday, but is expected to slow
down as it approaches the coast, and does not look to push offshore
until Monday. Once the front moves through, winds look to become
more northeasterly, and will become moderate to strong towards the
midweek.

Water temperatures around the area range from the upper 50s to lower
60s. With dewpoints rising to around or above 60 degrees today, then
into the lower half of the 60s Sunday, we may have to keep an eye
out for a low potential for sea fog. A favorable indication though,
is that the galveston bay entrance water temp has risen from 60 to
63 degrees in the past 24 hours. If waters can continue to warm,
this will mitigate any fog threat. Regardless, this stands as a
reminder that sea fog season is upon us - if not now, it won't be
terribly long...

tides will remain around their astronomical norms into the weekend.

As winds become more easterly northeasterly and stronger, it would
be reasonable to expect a drift above those normals into the
midweek, though model guidance does not yet strongly indicate this.

Luchs

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 71 54 55 43 52 0 20 50 40 50
houston (iah) 71 58 65 48 56 0 10 40 40 50
galveston (gls) 69 65 69 56 62 0 10 30 40 60

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... Overpeck
near term... Overpeck
short term... Overpeck
long term... Overpeck
aviation... Luchs
marine... Luchs
fire weather... Luchs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GRRT2 9 mi44 min NE 2.9 G 2.9 55°F 56°F1020.4 hPa
LUIT2 11 mi44 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 64°F 1019.9 hPa
GTOT2 13 mi44 min E 1 G 1.9 58°F 65°F1020.2 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 18 mi50 min E 6 G 6 62°F 64°F1020 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 20 mi44 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 56°F1020.6 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 24 mi44 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 64°F1020.5 hPa
FPST2 24 mi44 min Calm G 1.9 62°F 64°F1019.7 hPa
KXIH 25 mi39 min Calm 63°F 54°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 31 mi34 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 64°F 64°F1021.1 hPa59°F
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 33 mi44 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 52°F 56°F1020.7 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 33 mi44 min E 1.9 G 1.9 52°F 59°F1020.5 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 39 mi44 min SSE 2.9 G 7 58°F 67°F1019.7 hPa
HIST2 42 mi50 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 52°F 54°F1020.9 hPa
SGNT2 45 mi44 min NNE 2.9 G 2.9 52°F 51°F1019.6 hPa

Wind History for Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX8 mi82 minE 310.00 miFair57°F55°F93%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from GLS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4SE4E5SE7SE9SE10SE9SE7SE7SE7SE6SE7SE7SE4SE3CalmCalmE3E3
1 day agoNE6NW4NW333N3N543SE7SE7S5S3SW3CalmSW3SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW11NW13NW11NW11N12NW11NW9NW11
G16
NW7N9NW13NW9NW6NW7NW8NW8NW6NW9NW6N9N7NE4E5NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Jamaica Beach, West Bay, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Sat -- 12:46 AM CST     1.21 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 01:14 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:42 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:44 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:40 AM CST     -1.12 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:05 PM CST     -0.01 knots Min Ebb
Sat -- 02:18 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:23 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:44 PM CST     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:41 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.210.70.3-0.1-0.5-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.9-0.6-0.3-0.1-0-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.