Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Jamaica Beach, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:13PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 5:47 PM CST (23:47 UTC) Moonrise 7:40PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ355 Coastal Waters From High Island To Freeport Tx Out 20 Nm- 344 Pm Cst Wed Feb 20 2019
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northeast winds around 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds around 15 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 7 feet. A chance of showers.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet. A chance of showers.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 344 Pm Cst Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Winds will veer to the northeast and east on Thursday as another coastal low develops off the south texas coast. Chances of fog return as early as Thursday evening and will linger on through Saturday afternoon.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jamaica Beach, TX
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location: 29.2, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 202153
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
353 pm cst Wed feb 20 2019

Near term [through tonight]
I see skies of blue and clouds of white which visible satellite
imagery show are moving out of the area off the gulf coast.

Surface analysis has weak high pressure over texas providing light
northerly winds and drier air with dewpoints in the 30s 40s.

Hopefully everyone can get outside for fresh air this evening.

Overnight we are expecting cloud cover to increase after midnight
going into Thursday morning. Once again we will have an isentropic
lift situation over the frontal boundary and the formation of a
coastal trough off the gulf coast by Thursday morning.

Short term [Thursday through Friday night]
Clouds cover increases Thursday and remains in place through the
end of the week as we continue with isentropic lift and warm air
advection. Warm front does push north early Friday with dewpoints
getting up into the 60s. This should support the development of
sea fog as early as Thursday night depending upon the strength of
moisture advection. Forecast will keep some solid rain chances
going with a mention of isolated thunderstorms. Upper level trough
really starts to move across the southern rockies Friday into
Friday night which will only cause pressure to fall in the plains
and continued warm air advection with the LLJ increasing into
Saturday morning. Temperatures due to warm advection could reach
the 70s under cloud cover and not drop much into Saturday morning
due to moisture and cloud cover.

Long term [Saturday through Wednesday]
Upper level trough finally moves into the plains with a negative
tilt. Environment becomes favorable for severe weather Saturday
north of the area but may have to watch madison houston trinity
counties for a small threat. There is at least a marginal threat
for severe at the end of day 3 outlook for Saturday morning over
these northern areas of the forecast area. Main severe threat
should move over the ARKLATEX to the mid-south during the day
Saturday. Pacific cold front should move through the area during
the day and see temperatures falling in the late afternoon behind
it. This will also end any sea fog potential over the bays and
near shore waters.

High pressure builds into the area Sunday which will allow for
quiet weather conditions. The day 6 to 8 forecast has no
consistency whatsoever so sticking closer to ensemble means and
blends for the forecast. GFS shows a upper level disturbance
moving across the plains Tuesday which draws up more moisture and
increased rain chances. ECMWF remains dry and then brings a front
into the area next Thursday maybe. GFS on the other hand is
aggressive with the front bringing it through next Wednesday. I
really have no good clues but the GFS operational run may be a
slight outlier compared to other GEFS members. GEFS members seem
to be clustering in 2 areas with more leaning towards no front.

Overpeck

Aviation [18z TAF issuance]
The back edge of the ovc cloud deck should be exiting the SE cor-
ner of the CWA shortly. This break from lower CIGS vis should be
very brief as most of the short-range models are now calling for
the more rapid return of low-level moisture clouds pops tonight
early thurs morning. And given the slow exit of things today, it
does stand to reason. Tweaked 18z tafs a bit to account for this
trend, which the previous package was already hinting at. 41

Marine
Winds seas will continue to decrease this afternoon as high pressure
builds over the area briefly this evening. As this high lifts off to
the NE overnight, the return of onshore winds low-level moisture and
perhaps some patchy fog spotty light rain and drizzle is expected to
begin in earnest once again tonight. While still not too sure on the
exact starting time of sea fog over the bays nearshore waters, cond-
itions should become quite favorable for its development sooner than
later (especially as previous round of moisture clouds rains has not
moved that far away). We could start see conditions start to go down
tomorrow thurs morning, but the more significant deterioration could
hold off until thurs night and early Fri morning. As with the previ-
ous event, we'll see things improve with the next cold front... Which
is currently progged for Sat afternoon early evening. 41

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 43 56 51 69 61 10 30 40 60 50
houston (iah) 48 58 55 74 67 10 50 50 50 40
galveston (gls) 55 62 60 71 66 30 50 40 30 20

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Overpeck
short term... Overpeck
long term... Overpeck
aviation... 41
marine... 41
fire weather... 41


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GRRT2 9 mi48 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 57°F 56°F1013 hPa (-0.7)
LUIT2 11 mi48 min NE 7 G 8 61°F 1012.5 hPa (-1.0)
GTOT2 13 mi48 min N 5.1 G 7 58°F 56°F1012.5 hPa (-1.1)
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 16 mi108 min NE 14 G 16 60°F1013 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 18 mi54 min N 8.9 G 11 60°F 58°F1012.3 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 20 mi48 min ENE 4.1 G 6 59°F 58°F1013.1 hPa (-0.9)
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 24 mi48 min E 7 G 8.9 60°F 57°F1013 hPa (-0.9)
FPST2 24 mi48 min ENE 7 G 8 58°F 56°F1012.2 hPa (-0.8)
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 31 mi38 min ENE 9.7 G 9.7 58°F 61°F1013.5 hPa54°F
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 33 mi48 min N 8 G 8.9 63°F 59°F1012.9 hPa (-0.8)
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 33 mi48 min NE 5.1 G 7 62°F 58°F1012.8 hPa (-0.8)
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 39 mi48 min NNE 5.1 G 7 64°F 64°F1012.4 hPa (-0.8)
HIST2 42 mi54 min NNE 5.1 G 6 63°F 58°F1013 hPa
SGNT2 45 mi48 min NNE 7 G 11 65°F 56°F1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX8 mi56 minN 710.00 miOvercast59°F46°F62%1013 hPa

Wind History from GLS (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Jamaica Beach, West Bay, Texas
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Jamaica Beach
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Wed -- 01:40 AM CST     0.46 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:58 AM CST     0.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:08 PM CST     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:13 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:39 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:30 PM CST     0.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.50.50.50.60.70.80.70.60.40.2-0-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.200.30.60.70.70.60.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:01 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:16 AM CST     -0.15 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:34 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:52 AM CST     0.17 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:55 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:53 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:48 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:44 AM CST     -2.33 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:48 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:50 PM CST     1.90 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:12 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:38 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:37 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.1-0.10.10.2-0-0.5-1-1.6-2-2.3-2.3-2.1-1.6-0.80.21.21.81.91.71.30.90.50.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.