Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Buras, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 7:15PM Friday March 24, 2017 9:09 AM CDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:38AMMoonset 3:57PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ552 Coastal Waters From The Southwest Pass Of The Mississippi River To Port Fourchon Louisiana Out 20 Mile- 346 Am Cdt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect through this evening...
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet with occasional seas to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely until late afternoon, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds near 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 346 Am Cdt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis..A storm system developing in the great plains will produce strong onshore flow through the weekend. Thunderstorms will affect the coastal waters on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Buras, LA
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location: 29.29, -89.66     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 241302
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
802 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017

Sounding discussion...

the sounding has an increase in moisture below an elevated
inversion at 850 mb. It is the return of gulf air with strong
onshore flow and there have been a couple spot showers across the
mississippi coast early this morning. Winds are southeast at 30
kts by 950 mb then become more southerly through 550 mb and switch
to west above. Today will be breezy as winds mix to the sfc with
daytime heating. Above the inversion the airmass is much drier and
overall pw is just above average at 1 inch.

Krautmann

Prev discussion /issued 352 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017/
short term...

the possibility of strong to severe convection later tonight and
Saturday is the main concern during the short term period. Prior
to that, another warm and fairly tranquil day is in store for the
forecast area. More in the way of cloud cover is expected today
when compared to the last dew days. Highs will be in the upper 70s
and lower 80s in most locations. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon.

A much better chance for thunderstorms will be in the offing late
tonight and especially during the day Saturday as an upper level
low/trough pulling out of the southwest CONUS moves across the
southern plains today and into the mid mississippi valley by
Saturday. Convection will increase across the lower mississippi
valley late today and tonight as large scale lift increases
across the region ahead of the approaching system. Although a few
showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the evening, the
main convection will begin to push into the northwest sections of
the forecast after midnight tonight, perhaps even well after
midnight and during the early morning hours Saturday. The
convection will then translate eastward during the day Saturday.

Forecast soundings indicate an unstable atmosphere will be in
place and CAPE values will range from around 800 to 1500 j/kg.

Relatively low forecasted wbz heights suggest the possibility of
large hail with some of the storms. Forecasted SRH values in the
200 to 300 m2/s2 range later tonight and early Saturday along with
fairly low LFC heights indicate some threat of tornadoes will
exist. It would appear that the tornado threat will diminish
somewhat during the day Saturday as low level winds become more
unidirectional. Decent upper level divergence aloft should aid the
convection during the period from late tonight through Saturday.

With this said, it appears the the greatest severe weather threat
will remain north of the forecast where the overall best dynamics
will exist. Locally, the main severe weather threats will be
damaging thunderstorms winds gusts and large hail. An isolated
tornado or two is also possible. SPC has included the western
sections of the forecast area in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms late tonight, and the entire area in a slight risk
for severe weather on Saturday. The convection will diminish
Saturday night as the upper system pulls off to the northeast. The
associated cold front will not push through the area. 11
long term...

a warm period will prevail Sunday and through the work week with
a few bouts of convection. The next chance for showers and
thunderstorms will occur Monday and Monday night as an upper
trough moves east across the mississippi valley. Severe weather is
not expected with this system. Again, an associated cold front
will not make through the forecast area. Another round of
convection is expected Wednesday night and Thursday as a vigorous
upper low/trough moves across the lower/mid mississippi valley.

This system may have a better chance of producing strong to severe
thunderstorms across the area during this time frame. Again it
appears that a cold frontal passage with this system is unlikely.

11
aviation...

terminals reporting MVFR ceilings, except kbtr, where ceilings are
into the ifr range at fl009. Potential for most terminals to fall
into the upper end of the ifr range for an hour or two right around
sunrise. Improvement toVFR is expected at most terminals during the
morning, continuing through the day. Should see MVFR ceilings return
after sunset. One change with the 12z package is likely to be
delaying onset of tsra until after 12z Saturday, as most of the
mesoscale modeling is now showing the expected line of convection to
still be near or west of the atchafalaya river at 12z. 35
marine...

will maintain small craft advisories as currently depicted, and will
extend small craft exercise caution headlines through 00z Saturday
for remainder of coastal waters. Headlines of some sort will be
necessary tonight and Saturday as well. Gradient should relax enough
by late in the day Saturday for headlines to be dropped. Beyond
that, winds should remain below 15 knots for much of the time from
Saturday night into Tuesday or Wednesday. We are looking at a
prolonged period of southerly winds for the next week or so, outside
of convection. This should eventually produce some swell to enhance
wave heights by the end of the forecast period. 35
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: assessing convective threat for late tonight/Saturday.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 80 65 79 61 / 20 50 70 30
btr 82 67 80 62 / 20 50 70 20
asd 81 65 79 62 / 20 30 70 30
msy 81 68 81 66 / 20 30 70 20
gpt 76 65 76 63 / 20 20 70 30
pql 78 62 78 62 / 20 10 70 40

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz536-557-
570-572-575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz557-570-
572-575-577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KDLP 13 mi29 min SSE 8.9 72°F 70°F
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 16 mi51 min SE 14 G 20 72°F 72°F1021.2 hPa
GRBL1 21 mi129 min SE 19 G 22 1020.4 hPa (-0.0)
PILL1 23 mi51 min SE 13 G 18 71°F 54°F1022.1 hPa
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 28 mi51 min SE 15 G 22
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 29 mi69 min SE 22 G 23 71°F 1022.1 hPa (+1.2)67°F
KXPY 31 mi34 min SE 15 73°F 66°F
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 34 mi102 min SSE 22 G 24 72°F 4 ft1021.1 hPa
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 40 mi51 min SE 19 G 22 71°F 74°F1022.3 hPa
KMIS 43 mi34 min SSE 7 G 20 77°F 68°F
KMDJ 45 mi34 min SE 27 73°F 66°F

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boothville, LA14 mi18 minSE 99.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F68°F87%1022.8 hPa

Wind History from BVE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E6E9E9E8NE7E7E8E10E6E5E5E6SE6SE7SE7SE7SE6SE5SE8SE6SE5SE7SE9
1 day agoNW9NW10NW9N8NE53N3NW3SW8W5SW4W7SW7W6W5W4W4W5CalmN4N3N4E4E6
2 days agoSW11SW11SW12SW12SW14SW13SW13SW11SW12SW11SW11W14
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W13W11W8W9W7W8NW5NW4--NW6NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Bastian Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Bastian Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:38 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:18 AM CDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:31 PM CDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.30.10-0-0-000.10.10.20.30.40.40.50.60.70.80.80.90.90.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Quatre Bayous Pass, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Quatre Bayous Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:39 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:23 AM CDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:58 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:08 PM CDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.60.40.30.10-0-0-000.10.20.30.40.40.50.60.70.80.80.9111

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.