Sunrise 6:46 AM   Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 3:18 PM   Moonset 3:41 AM

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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 956 Am Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Today - Southeast winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots late. Bay waters smooth, becoming slightly choppy late. Patchy fog early this morning. Isolated showers late. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog late. Saturday - Southeast winds around 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy. Patchy fog. Scattered showers. Saturday night - East winds around 15 knots, becoming northeast after midnight, then increasing to 15 to 20 knots late. Bay waters slightly choppy, becoming smooth to slightly choppy after midnight, then becoming choppy late. Scattered Thunderstorms. Showers likely. Sunday - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Sunday night - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to around 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy, becoming slightly choppy after midnight. Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 956 Am Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis for high island to the matagorda ship channel out 60 nm including galveston and matagorda bays
onshore winds will prevail through Saturday night, with periods of patchy fog expected prior to the passage of a cold front that will result in a shift to ne winds. Showers and Thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the front, impacting the bays and coastal waters between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning. As the front departs, moderate to strong offshore winds will develop which will potentially require a small craft advisory. Winds will relax by Monday, with onshore flow redeveloping on Tuesday.

FXUS64 KHGX 191735 AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1235 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Active spring weather pattern expected on SAT: Slight and Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall (levels 2 and 1 of 4)
Marginal Risk of Strong or Severe Storms (level 1 of 5)

Slightly drier/cooler air will be filtering into the northern half of the CWA (mainly north of the I-10 corridor) through this afternoon as the cold front slides into SE TX before stalling. South of this boun- dary, warm/humid conditions will continue. The light WAA showers this morning could give way to isolated activity along/near this line this afternoon. Temperatures this afternoon will depend on the front, with highs around 80 behind this front...to the mid and upper 80s ahead of it. So please continue to be cautious if you are planning on any out- door activities.

By tonight, the cold front will begin retreating north as the onshore flow at the low/mid levels begins to strengthen in response to a weak shortwave trough approaching from the west. This pattern will help to increase PWs (to 1.8-2") through Sat afternoon/evening. Aloft, models are indicating the development of a diffluent jet structure across N/ NE portions of the area. And so, these factors combined with the add- ition of weak impulses aloft and the proximity of the semi-stationary front, do favor the development of training storms as well as showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall heading into Sat after- noon. Guidance is continuing to favor locations north of the US-59/I- 69 corridor for the highest POPs...with areas from Brenham to Trinity as where we could see the more significant rain totals. Activity will persist/regenerate into Sat night across much of SE TX, so the threat of flooding/heavy rains could be compounded. Current thinking has the rain totals averaging from 1-3" north of US-59/I-69...from 0.25-1" to the south. Locally higher amounts will be possible. 41

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

By Sunday morning, the aforementioned surface cold front will approach the coast and depart offshore, with shower and thunderstorm development ceasing as this occurs. As surface high pressure moves into the area behind the boundary along with a steady NE surface flow, we'll see an influx of cooler and drier air that should provide a few days of pleasant conditions heading into the beginning of next week. Highs on Sunday are unlikely to eclipse 70, with lingering cloud cover in the wake of the frontal passage working to inhibit daytime heating while CAA provides a persistent supply of cooler air. Overnight lows should dip into the upper 40s/low 50s for most locations, with clearer skies providing efficient radiative cooling. Pleasant conditions linger into the start of next week with highs on Monday sitting in the 70s, lows dropping into the 50s, and surface dew points in the upper 40s.

The eastward exit of surface high pressure on Tuesday will bring about a return to an onshore flow regime, with southeast winds increasing by mid-week with the development of a lee cyclone over SW Colorado and the resultant tightening of the synoptic pressure gradient. As such, we continue to anticipate steady increases in both temperatures and moisture levels into the end of next week, with highs returning to the upper 70s/low 80s on Tuesday and the mid 80s on Wednesday and Thursday. This will be accompanied by a rise in surface dew points back towards 70. A few shortwaves embedded within the prevailing midlevel flow will provide some nonzero but nonetheless meager precipitation chances beginning on Wednesday.

Cady

AVIATION
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs expected through the remainder of the afternoon. Some SHRA and isolated TS activity possible along the sea breeze boundary this afternoon and evening. Cigs, and in some cases vis, drop overnight to widespread MVFR with areas of IFR.
Any IFR conditions should improve to MVFR by mid/late morning tomorrow.

MARINE
Issued at 323 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds, along with the chances for patchy fog development, will prevail through Saturday as a front remains stalled to the north of the barrier islands. This boundary will eventually push through the area on Saturday night, bringing with it periods of showers and storms that will prevail until Sunday morning. Moderate NE winds are expected behind the departing boundary on Sunday, possibly requiring a Small Craft Advisory. Winds will diminish on Monday with an onshore flow pattern returning on Tuesday. Onshore winds will gradually increase through the middle of next week.

Cady

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
College Station (CLL) 67 78 53 63 / 20 70 90 10 Houston (IAH) 71 82 59 67 / 20 50 80 30 Galveston (GLS) 71 77 62 70 / 20 10 70 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
GM...None.

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Galveston Pier 21, Galveston Channel, Texas, Tide feet

Bolivar Roads
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Fri -- 03:29 AM CDT     -0.20 knots Min Ebb
Fri -- 04:41 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:48 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:41 AM CDT     -1.10 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:01 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:29 PM CDT     1.51 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 04:16 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:27 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:48 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:08 PM CDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
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Bolivar Roads, Texas Current, knots

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