Monday, October23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Tiki Island, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:41PM Monday October 23, 2017 7:14 PM CDT (00:14 UTC) Moonrise 9:45AMMoonset 8:39PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 322 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft should exercise caution late tonight and Tuesday...
Tonight..North winds around 5 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming choppy after midnight.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Friday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 322 Pm Cdt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Light winds early are expected to increase tonight as strong offshore winds will develop behind a passing front Tuesday morning. These stronger winds will persist through Tuesday night. Winds will diminish on Wednesday and then become onshore by late Thursday as high pressure moves east of the area. Another cold front should arrive at the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tiki Island, TX
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location: 29.32, -94.8     debug

Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 232324
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
624 pm cdt Mon oct 23 2017

A reinforcing cold front will be moving through the area later
tonight. Look for winds to increase and become quite gusty during
the day Tuesday. Otherwise...VFR conditions will prevail. 47

Prev discussion issued 348 pm cdt Mon oct 23 2017
mainly a wind and temperature forecast for this afternoon's
update. Starting at 06z, short term guidance such as the hrrr and
rap13, bring a wind shift into the northern zones of the forecast
area, shifting the winds out of the north northeast. The coast
should see this wind shift by 10z. The pressure gradient tightens
during this time frame, and as a result winds will pick up to 5 to
9 mph over land between 06 to 12z. A secondary cold front
following the front that passed yesterday, will act to provide an
additional reinforcement of cooler air. Low temps this evening are
still expected to range in the 50s to low 60s along the coast,
while the effects of this secondary cold front will not truly be
felt until Tuesday. Model guidance has also trended cooler Tuesday
and Tuesday night, with radiational cooling anticipated with
these clear night skies, and therefore decided to lower temps by a
few degrees.

As the surface high shifts southeast, Monday night into Tuesday,
this tighter pressure gradient should cause an increase in wind
speeds throughout the afternoon Tuesday, keeping winds between
10-15 mph over land, with gusts to around 20 mph. Additionally,
as cooler air continues to advect in the region Tuesday, high
temperatures will struggle to make it out of the mid 70s. Tuesday
will also be the driest day this week, with min rhs between 20 to
25%. With these rh values and stronger winds over the area,
elevated fire weather conditions will be of concern. Tuesday night
into Wednesday will be the coolest night before the weekend, with
low temperatures plummeting into the low 40s near bryan college
station to upper 50s along the coast near galveston.

Highs again Wednesday will struggle to make it into the mid 70s. The
pressure gradient slackens Tuesday into Wednesday, and a stronger
region of high pressure scoots in from the northeast. Therefore,
fire weather conditions will be less of a threat Wednesday. Onshore
winds will return late Thursday as the area of high pressure
weakens. This will help to increase moisture over the region
Thursday afternoon, and by Friday pws will range between 0.7 to
1.0 inches.

Timing of the frontal passage late in the week amongst the various
global models is still inconsistent. GFS is still a little faster
than the ecwmf, though the solutions of both have come closer
together in time. Progression of the front through SE tx looks to
occur late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Sunny skies
will become partly cloudy as a result of the front Friday
afternoon. The ECMWF also brings in a bit more precipitation out
ahead of the front than the gfs, late Friday into Saturday. In
terms of intensity, the ECMWF is providing the coolest solution in
comparison to the GFS and nam. Remaining conservative in the
forecast for now, though leaning towards the ECMWF solution.

Saturday into Sunday, 850 temperatures range between 2 to 5 degree
celsius, which is a touch on the colder side for this time of
year. Confidence remains low on just how strong this front will
be. Therefore, temperatures could trend cooler this weekend as the
models get a better handle on the airmass in the next few days. Hathaway

winds over the waters are relatively light this afternoon and will
continue so into the evening as high pressure moves east of the
area. Winds should pick up overnight as a front moves through, and
are expected to reach advisory levels over the gulf by morning. The
advisory begins a few hours before the threshold is forecast to be
met to cover the period of scec-level wind. The advisory carries
through Wednesday morning - the 0-20 nm zones may see a bit of a
lull in the afternoon, but with the expectation that winds will
exceed the advisory threshold again tomorrow night, chose to keep
one longer advisory.

Look for winds to diminish Wednesday as another high pressure center
moves across the region. As that high moves off to the east, onshore
flow should return on Thursday. The next front is expected to arrive
Friday, and looks strong enough to bring another period of strong,
gusty winds. Luchs
fire weather...

dry air will be reinforced by another cold front overnight. Unlike
today, winds behind the front will be considerably stronger. As a
result, we'll be looking at an rh and wind combo that is near the
threshold for a red flag warning. Min rhs look to be in the
neighborhood of 25 percent (a touch lower farther inland, a smidge
higher at the coast), with winds also in the 15 mph ballpark and
gusts to around 20 mph. In addition to that, overnight recovery
looks decent, but not outstanding tonight, and even worse Tuesday
night. But, with all that said, we are fortunate to have generally
wetter than normal fuels. Outside of the 10 hour fuels, which are
more receptive to changes in rh, rain from Sunday morning will help
mitigate conditions. Because of that, will decide against going with
any fire weather headlines. However, those with more grassy fuels
should be aware of the dry air and winds expected, and understand
that fire may spread more rapidly than they might expect given the
recent rain.

Low humidity will persist deep into the week, until the return of
onshore winds on Thursday will begin to return moisture back to
southeast texas. Fortunately, high pressure drifting across the area
will keep winds lighter than we'll see tomorrow. This will mitigate
fire weather concerns to some extent for Wednesday and Thursday. Luchs

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 53 73 44 73 46 0 0 0 0 0
houston (iah) 57 74 46 72 49 0 0 0 0 0
galveston (gls) 65 75 56 72 62 0 0 0 0 0

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution from 3 am cdt Tuesday
through Wednesday morning for the following zones:
galveston bay... Matagorda bay.

Small craft advisory from 3 am Tuesday to 7 am cdt Wednesday for
the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high
island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high
island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTOT2 1 mi44 min 72°F 74°F
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 5 mi44 min S 1.9 G 2.9 75°F1017.1 hPa
GRRT2 5 mi44 min 73°F 74°F1017.6 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 13 mi44 min E 2.9 G 2.9 73°F 75°F1017.6 hPa
KXIH 18 mi19 min NW 2.9 72°F 46°F
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 20 mi44 min NW 7 G 8.9 73°F 76°F1017.4 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 21 mi84 min W 3.9 G 5.8 72°F 78°F1 ft1017.7 hPa (-1.3)49°F
LUIT2 24 mi44 min SSE 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 1017.3 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 27 mi44 min ESE 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 76°F1017.5 hPa
HIST2 29 mi44 min S 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 74°F1017.6 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 37 mi44 min E 1.9 G 4.1 77°F 75°F1016.5 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 37 mi44 min E 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 76°F1017.7 hPa
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 48 mi74 min WSW 8 G 9.9 70°F 1018 hPa (-0.8)52°F

Wind History for Galveston Pleasure Pier, TX
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX5 mi82 minN 010.00 miFair77°F44°F31%1017.6 hPa
High Island 179A (Apache Corp), LA18 mi79 minN 010.00 miFair73°F46°F38%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from GLS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN10N7NW4NW6NW14N13N15N14N12N10NE9NE8NE6NE6NE6N7N6N6N5N7N6N6CalmCalm
1 day agoSE9SE9SE8SE9SE10SE10S9S7S4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmN30
2 days agoE15SE12SE16SE14SE11S11S11S12S10SE12SE10S5S5SE7SE9SE12SE10SE13SE11SE10SE10SE12SE11SE11

Tide / Current Tables for Galveston Pier 21, Galveston Channel, Texas
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Galveston Pier 21
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Mon -- 01:05 AM CDT     1.49 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:49 AM CDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:26 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:48 PM CDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:10 PM CDT     1.73 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:39 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Mon -- 12:56 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:11 AM CDT     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:05 AM CDT     -0.37 knots Min Ebb
Mon -- 07:26 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:15 PM CDT     -1.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:32 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:06 PM CDT     1.90 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:39 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.