Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Welaka, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 5:28PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 4:27 PM EST (21:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 8:11PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 151 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters smooth. Showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening. A slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Thursday..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters choppy. Showers in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night and Friday..North northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters choppy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
Saturday..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Saturday night..West northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..North northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 151 Pm Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure will move east of the carolinas late tonight. Low pressure is forecast to develop over the eastern gulf of mexico tomorrow then move over the florida peninsula tomorrow night and Thursday, resulting in increased rain chances with a few Thunderstorms possible. The low will shift east and north of the waters through the weekend...shifting winds from a northeast direction to a northwest direction. Depending on the intensity of the low...winds and seas could approach advisory criteria at times.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Welaka, FL
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location: 29.39, -81.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 211935
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
235 pm est Tue nov 21 2017

Dense fog potential tonight...

Near term tonight-Wednesday
Rest of this afternoon... Shortwave energy continues to move up the
fl peninsula and trigger scattered numerous showers and embedded
storms across central fl that will push northward into NE fl and
coastal SE ga the remainder of the afternoon and into the early
evening hours. A few brief heavier downpours are possible with
heaviest rainfall still expected south of the i-10 corridor of ne
fl with amounts in the 0.25-0.50" range and lesser amounts further
n across inland SE ga.

Tonight... Showers and any embedded storm activity will fade during
the evening hours as energy pushes NE and offshore of the region.

Skies will only see brief partial clear towards midnight and any
cooling that takes place near the surface will only enhance the
potential for low clouds and dense fog towards morning. Mild
overnight lows generally in the mid-upper 50s inland and near 60
at the coast. The more clearing that takes place during the late
evening and overnight hours will increase the threat of dense fog
and the latest SREF guidance has 60-80% chances of dense fog by
sunrise Wed morning along with strong support by the NAM gfs
guidance.

Wednesday... Region remains in between systems for most of the day
as low clouds dense fog will take most of the morning to dissipate
with some sunny breaks by afternoon allowing temps to push into
the upper 60s near 70 SE ga and lower middle 70s across NE fl.

Next system approaching from the gomex late in the day will
increase rain chances from the SW from the i-75 corridor of north
fl into the rest of the area by sunset with scattered showers and
possibly a thunderstorm.

Short term (thanksgiving and Friday)
Still shaping up to be a rainy thanksgiving day across northeast
florida and portions of southeast georgia. Surface low starts to
develop in the eastern gulf, and high pressure across the mid-
atlantic will keep onshore flow at the surface. In the mid and
upper levels, southwesterly flow remains in place and a shortwave
trough will move into the gulf sometime Thursday night. Scattered
to numerous showers with a few rumbles of thunder will develop by
early Thursday morning across north central florida and spread
northeastward through the day. Pwats will be on the rise through
the end of the week, and widespread rainfall totals of around an
inch to 1.25 through Friday seem reasonable across northeast
florida, with localized areas picking up higher amounts. Across
southeast georgia, rainfall amounts will likely be less other than
right along the coast. Still most areas should see at least
0.25-0.50 inch.

Long term (Saturday through Tuesday)
Surface low moves across florida and up the atlantic coast as
upper level troughing extends across the eastern third of the us.

Rain chances will stick around the coast on Saturday morning
before we start to dry out. Another shortwave trough will break
off the mean flow across the gulf coast states sometime on Sunday,
though models still diverge on how far south the trough digs
before moving eastward, and how strong it will be. Have kept the
remainder of the forecast dry for now

Aviation
StillVFR conds ahead of developing showers isolated storms moving
up the fl peninsula expected to arrive at TAF sites btwn 20-21z
with MVFR CIGS vsbys in rain, and with increased instability have
included vcts for several hours as chances have increased
slightly. Showers end in the 01-02z time frame and will leave
likely reduced vsbys in light MVFR vsbys in mist during the
evening hours and the threat of dense fog late tonight has
increased to 60-80% so have placed lifr conds in the TAF sites
from the 08-14z time frame tomorrow morning.

Marine
Sely flow around 15 knots this evening with seas 3-6 ft with scec
headlines offshore will become NE after the low pressure system
passes offshore and expect NE winds 15-20 knots and seas at least
4-6 ft Wednesday through Friday as series of lows pass just south
of the waters, still will be very close to SCA conds but will hold
off on issuing any advisories with this package. Frontal passage
early in the weekend will shift winds to offshore NW with winds
remaining elevated at 15-20 knots but seas decreasing slightly
over the weekend.

Rip currents: moderate risk continues through the week in the
onshore flow.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 73 55 70 52 20 20 20 50
ssi 71 59 68 59 60 40 10 70
jax 76 59 73 58 50 40 20 70
sgj 76 61 73 60 50 40 30 60
gnv 77 58 75 58 50 40 40 70
ocf 78 58 77 59 60 40 30 60

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Hess elsenheimer corless


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 28 mi102 min SSE 8.9 71°F 1016 hPa67°F
RCYF1 29 mi39 min 67°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 38 mi27 min SSE 18 G 20 69°F 69°F1014.4 hPa (-1.3)

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
1 day agoCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmNW6NW6NW6NW6N5W5N5N7W5Calm
2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Georgetown, St. Johns River, Florida
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Georgetown
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Tue -- 03:21 AM EST     3.91 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:06 AM EST     3.94 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:11 PM EST     3.89 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 09:39 PM EST     3.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.93.9

Tide / Current Tables for Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida
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Welaka
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:18 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:54 AM EST     0.43 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:26 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:25 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:18 PM EST     0.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:34 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:21 PM EST     0.48 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:54 PM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.10.20.40.40.40.30.30.1000.10.10.10.20.40.50.50.40.40.20.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.