Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:41PM Monday March 27, 2017 10:18 PM EDT (02:18 UTC) Moonrise 6:08AMMoonset 6:25PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Rest of tonight..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Tuesday..South southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south southeast 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 10 seconds. Inland waters smooth.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..South southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 1000 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure centered off the carolina coast will move southward through midweek. Winds will become southerly tonight and southwesterly by Wednesday. A weak cold front will move southward and stall near the georgia waters by late Wednesday. The front will lift back north as a warm front on Thursday evening ahead of an approaching cold front that will cross our waters on Friday night and early Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL
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location: 29.4, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 271914
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
314 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Near term /tonight-Tuesday/
Rest of this afternoon/evening... Weak low level ridge axis at the
surface will support both atlc/gomex sea breeze fronts pushing
inland and diurnal heating & pwats just below an inch ahead of
approaching shortwave aloft may be just enough to trigger a few
isolated showers/storms over inland SE ga and the suwannee valley of
inland north fl but overall any coverage still looks to be 20% or
less and brief in timing/intensity. Activity will fade quickly after
sunset during the evening hours.

Tonight... Expect partly cloudy skies as shortwave aloft weakens
and pushes through some mid/high clouds at times. Min temps to
fall into the upper 50s inland and lower 60s coast. Enough low
level cooling and moisture to support patchy fog around sunrise
with some locally dense but these patches should be very shallow
in nature and the SREF organized dense fog chances are 20% or less
for sunrise Tue morning.

Tuesday... Sfc ridge axis presses further southward and steering
flow becomes more w/swly and this will cause a further warming in
the atmosphere with widespread MAX temps into the middle 80s over
inland areas and the atlc sea breeze front will get pinned closer
to the coast and will allow for MAX temps to reach into the upper
70s at the beaches. Rain chances will remain low with only a
slight chance of showers/possibly a storm across inland SE ga
during peak heating of the afternoon hours but weak forcing aloft
should keep activity to a minimum.

Short term (Tuesday night-Wednesday night)... There will be deep
layer ridging over the area while a cold front washes out near the
altamaha. Conditions look mostly warm and dry except for a few
isolated storms possible near the altamaha in close proximity of the
front. Areas of late night and early morning also a possibility
given deep layer ridging over the area and elevated low level
moisture.

Long term (Thursday-Monday)
Rain chances increase area wide towards the end of the week as a
deep low across the southwest u.S. Moves northeast across the ohio
valley short wave energy from this system will drive a cold front
towards the area on Friday... With the front washing out south of the
area over the weekend. Appears most of the dynamics will lift north
of the area in addition to the deeper moisture splitting both north
and south... But there will be a chance of showers and isolated
storms with the approach of the front on Friday. Best rain chances
still appear to be in the western portion from the suwannee valley
to inland southeast ga. Conditions appear to be dry and warm next
weekend with high pressure building into the area behind the front.

The next disturbance brings a chance of showers to the area early
next week. There are still major discrepancies between the GFS and
ecmwf on the timing and southern extent of the short wave energy.

For now... Have low end rain chances.

Aviation
Vfr forecast on track this afternoon with SE winds around 10
knots.VFR continues tonight with sct high clouds at times. Models
still supporting some chances of MVFR fog at inland TAF sites and
have placed 3sm at gnv/vqq and 5sm jax/crg for some possible
sunrise fog.

Marine
Winds become south tonight at 10-15 knots with seas still 3-4 ft
nearshore and 4-6 ft offshore due to long period swells and will
continue scec headline. S/sw flow will continue Tue & Tue night
before a weak wind shift occurs with weak frontal boundary on wed
and shift back to the e/se Wed night/thu but still below any
headline levels. A more significant southerly increase in winds is
expected ahead of the next front on Thu night/Friday with speeds
pushing into the 15-20 knot range and seas back into the 4-7 ft
range and expect at least scec headlines over the offshore waters
and possibly SCA flags.

Rip currents: moderate risk to continue into Tuesday due to the
longer period swells. Surf/breakers still in the 3-4 ft range.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Amg 60 84 62 86 / 20 10 0 20
ssi 62 75 64 77 / 10 0 0 10
jax 60 85 61 85 / 0 0 0 10
sgj 60 80 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
gnv 57 85 57 87 / 0 0 0 0
ocf 57 84 57 87 / 0 0 0 0

Jax watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Hess/peterson/corless


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 19 mi93 min SE 1.9 69°F 1018 hPa65°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 33 mi78 min SE 6 G 6 69°F 71°F1017.9 hPa (-0.0)
RCYF1 37 mi48 min 71°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL7 mi3.5 hrsE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F60°F65%1017.3 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL15 mi25 minN 010.00 miFair68°F63°F84%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
1 day agoCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmNW6NW6NW6NW6N5W5N5N7W5Calm
2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida
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Smith Creek
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:15 AM EDT     1.00 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:40 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:45 PM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:25 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:04 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.9110.80.60.30-0.2-0.2-00.30.50.8110.90.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida
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Ormond Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 07:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:25 PM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:32 PM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.70.60.40.20-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.40.60.70.70.70.50.30-0.1-0.3-0.2-00.30.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.