Friday, September22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 7:21PM Friday September 22, 2017 8:12 PM EDT (00:12 UTC) Moonrise 8:22AMMoonset 8:10PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 317 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night...
Tonight..East northeast winds 15 knots. Seas building to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 15 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 14 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night and Sunday..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 15 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday night and Monday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Tuesday..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Inland waters mostly smooth.
Tuesday night..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 317 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure will remain positioned to the north of our waters as hurricane maria passes more than 500 miles to the east of the northeast florida and southeast georgia coasts late this weekend. Onshore winds will gradually strengthen and seas will build tonight, with small craft advisory level seas expected through at least Tuesday night in the near shore waters and persisting offshore throughout much of next week. Winds will turn to a north northwesterly direction on Tuesday, with gradually decreasing speeds.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ormond-by-the-Sea, FL
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location: 29.4, -81.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 222009
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
409 pm edt Fri sep 22 2017

Building seas with a high rip current risk at area beaches
this weekend and early next week...

Currently
Late afternoon surface analysis depicts high pressure (1023
millibars) centered over the eastern great lakes states and
extending southward down the spine of the appalachians. Major
hurricane maria was located about 785 miles to the southeast of
mayport, fl and is now moving north-northwestward at 9 mph.

Aloft... A trough extending southwestward from weakening tropical
storm jose off new england continues over our region, while a
narrow ridge centered over the eastern great lakes extends
southwestward into eastern texas. Coastal convection generated by
the trough aloft and a weak coastal trough has pushed further
e-se, with outflows from this earlier activity sparking isolated
to widely scattered convection that is progressing quickly
westward across i-75 in the suwannee valley. Breezy northeasterly
winds beginning to create some coastal convergence, with isolated
showers over coastal nassau and duval counties moving quickly
southwestward as of 20z. Temperatures were near 90 well inland,
where dewpoints were falling into the mid to upper 60s, while
breezy onshore winds were keeping coastal locations in the low to
mid 80s, with dewpoints generally in the lower 70s.

Near term (this afternoon through Saturday night)
Despite the presence of cold and unstable air aloft, compliments
of the upper low spinning over inland southeast georgia, a lack of
deep layered moisture is keeping coverage of convection to
isolated to widely scattered over inland northeast and north
central florida, with dry conditions across southeast georgia. As
our local pressure gradient tightens, deepening onshore flow will
bring a surge of atlantic moisture inland later tonight and
Saturday, bringing increasing chances for showers and embedded
thunderstorms to our region. Coastal shower coverage should
increase after midnight, with activity moving inland and towards
the u.S. Highway 301 corridor towards sunrise. A few thunderstorms
may be embedded in this activity, particularly over the coastal
waters and east of i-95. Cloudiness will gradually increase
elsewhere after midnight, with lows ranging from near 70 across
inland southeast georgia and the northern suwannee valley to the
mid upper 70s at area beaches, where onshore winds will likely
remain sustained in the 10-15 mph range overnight.

Mid upper low over inland southeast georgia will begin to
retrograde westward along the i-10 corridor on Saturday morning,
reaching the western fl panhandle late in the day. Breezy onshore
winds will push waves of showers and thunderstorms onshore during
the morning hours on Saturday, with likely pops used in the
forecast grids for locations south of a st. Augustine to ocala
line, where locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Scattered
convection will be possible nearly region-wide by Saturday
afternoon, and a few strong thunderstorms containing downburst
winds of 40-50 mph, frequent lightning strikes and perhaps some
small hail possible inland during the afternoon hours. Any breaks
in the cloud cover during the morning hours inland would likely
increase the threat for a few strong storms. Sustained wind speeds
will likely approach 20 mph in coastal locations as our local
pressure gradient continues to gradually tighten, with the threat
for coastal showers decreasing late in the afternoon as the surge
of enhanced pwats pushes inland. Heaviest rainfall amounts of one
quarter to one half inch are expected along the st. Johns and
flagler coasts, with lighter amounts elsewhere outside of any
training convective activity. Highs will climb into the mid upper
80s well inland, with low to mid 80s elsewhere due to increasing
rain chances during the morning hours accompanied by plenty of
cloud cover. Winds will decouple inland on Saturday night, with
lows falling to the upper 60s to near 70, while breezy onshore
winds keep coastal lows in the mid 70s.

Short term (Sunday through Monday)
Sun & Sun night... Mid upper level trough retrogrades farther west
across al fl panhandle as hurricane maria tracks north, east of
the bahamas. Breezy onshore ene flow will bring a chance of
coastal showers, shifting inland toward the suwannee river valley
into the afternoon where isolated storms will be possible due to
low level convergence interacting with daytime heating and under
modest mid level lapse rates with 500 mb temps of -7 to -9 deg c
and indications of an upper level jet streak on the east side of
the upper level trough. Main convective hazards would be hail and
gusty winds. Mostly dry conditions will continue across SE ga
where low level ridge axis will bring stronger subsidence. Precip
will fade inland in the early evening, with mostly dry conditions
sun night less a coastal shower along the NE florida atlantic
coast. High temperatures will warm to near climo values in the
mid upper 80s inland to low 80s coast, with overnight lows sun
night falling into the mid upper 60s over inland SE ga and the
suwannee river valley, while onshore flow keeps the coast more
mild with lows in the low mid 70s.

Mon & Mon night... Hurricane maria is forecast to track between
500-600 nm east of jacksonville Monday as surface high pressure
dominates north of the region, with a ridge axis nosing south over
ga. This pattern will continue a breezy low level ene flow along
the coast where beachfront hazards including rough surf, rip
currents and beach erosion flooding will continue. Only a low
chance of showers was advertised from flagler beach toward citra
southward where some low level convergence associated with a weak
trough pivoting southward around hurricane maria could enhance
some lift along with daytime heating. Elsewhere, drier air will
filter over the region from the north as mid level subsidence
strengthens over the area. Temperatures will moderate into the
upper 80s to near 90 well inland toward i-75 corridor, while
onshore flow and a dominant east coast sea breeze keeps the coast
slighter cooler with highs in the mid 80s. Monday night, dry
conditions expected as as dry northerly drainage flow lowers min
temperatures into the mid upper 60s inland to low 70s coast.

Long term (Tuesday through Friday)
Synopsis... A taste of early fall for the local area next week with
drier conditions, cooler nights and warm days. Latest 12z gfs
advertised a back-door cold front, which is the wake trough axis
trailing maria, sliding southward down the SE atlantic bight fri,
bringing with it the next chance of rain Fri to mainly coastal
areas and potentially SE ga. Some inland areas could see more late
night early morning fog development, especially across SE ga and
the suwannee river valley.

Tue-thu... Mostly dry conditions expected during this period as the
forecast area will be between deep layer high pressure centered
over the gulf coast region and hurricane maria offshore of the us
mid-atlantic coast, tracking northward. Subsidence and a dry
northerly flow will bring very little chance of rainfall, except
possibly over the adjacent coastal waters where some weak troughs
pivoting sse around maria could spark some showers. A dry
northerly wind will become onshore in the afternoon near the coast
with the atlantic sea breeze as inland temperatures moderate to
near to above normal highs due to dry airmass and rising
thicknesses just west of the region. Daytime highs will range in
the upper 80s to lower 90s with mild and cooler region-wide lows
in the mid upper 60s inland to low 70s toward the atlantic coast.

Aviation
Periods of MVFR ceilings around 2000 feet will be possible at the
duval county terminals and sgj after midnight, with showers
possible after 08z. Otherwise,VFR conditions will prevail. East-
northeasterly surface winds will be sustained at 10-15 knots at
the regional terminals through 00z, with occasional gusts to 20
knots. Surface winds will remain sustained around 10 knots after
00z at sgj and ssi, with surface speeds increasing back to 10-15
knots at the rest of the regional terminals after 12z. MVFR
ceilings of 2000-2500 feet and showers may begin to impact ssi
towards 15z Saturday.

Marine
Our local pressure gradient continues to gradually tighten as high
pressure centered over the eastern great lakes noses down the
spine of the appalachians and major hurricane maria turns
northward just east of the bahamas. Swells from maria will
increase in frequency overnight, and with winds increasing to near
20 knots at times this weekend, we opted to hoist a small craft
advisory for all of our waters through early next week. Seas in
the near shore waters will build to 5-7 feet towards sunrise on
Saturday and will peak in the 6-9 foot range from Saturday night
through Monday night. Seas offshore will build to the 6-9 foot
range tonight and will peak in the 9-12 foot range from Saturday
night through Monday. SCA level seas are likely to persist for
much of next week in the offshore waters due to large swells from
maria, which is expected to turn northeastward by late next week.

Maria will pass our latitude on Monday (with the eye passing
nearly 600 miles to the east of mayport), allowing winds to shift
to a northerly and then northwesterly direction with decreasing
speeds by late Monday and Tuesday.

Rip currents high surf: moderate risk continues as east-
southeasterly swells from major hurricane maria gradually build.

High risk will be needed for all area beaches this weekend and
early next week due to high surf and long period swells from
maria. A high surf advisory will likely be required for coastal
locations beginning on Saturday for breakers in excess of 7 feet.

Beach erosion will become an increasing concern during times of
high tide late this weekend and early next week.

Hydrology
A coastal flood advisory remains in place through the Saturday
evening high tide cycle for the st. Johns river basin, as minor
flooding continues during each high tide cycle from jacksonville
southward to palatka, while near moderate flooding continues south
of palatka into the welaka and ocklawaha river basins. Strengthening
onshore winds may keep the risk of minor to moderate flooding in
place during times of high tide into early next week.

Moderate flooding continues along portions of the santa fe and st.

Mary's rivers, with minor flooding along the satilla river east of
waycross and portions of the upper suwannee river.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 70 87 69 87 10 40 0 10
ssi 77 82 74 83 30 30 10 10
jax 73 85 73 85 30 50 20 20
sgj 78 83 75 84 40 50 20 20
gnv 71 86 71 87 30 50 10 20
ocf 72 87 72 88 30 50 10 30

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... Coastal flood advisory until 10 pm edt Saturday for clay-coastal
duval-flagler-inland duval-putnam-st. Johns.

Ga... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Tuesday for coastal waters
from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm-
coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl
out 20 nm-coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler
beach fl out 20 nm-waters from altamaha sound ga to
fernandina beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from fernandina
beach to st. Augustine fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from st.

Augustine to flagler beach fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Nelson enyedi corless


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 19 mi88 min E 6 80°F 1015 hPa74°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 33 mi73 min E 11 G 12 80°F 84°F1013.7 hPa (-0.4)80°F
RCYF1 37 mi43 min 82°F
41117 41 mi51 min 82°F4 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ormond Beach, Ormond Beach Municipal Airport, FL7 mi83 minE 67.00 miShowers in Vicinity77°F73°F89%1012.9 hPa
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL15 mi80 minE 7 G 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F73°F82%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--Calm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
1 day agoCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmNW6NW6NW6NW6N5W5N5N7W5Calm
2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida
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Smith Creek
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Fri -- 03:11 AM EDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:29 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:39 PM EDT     0.95 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:57 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.60.80.90.90.70.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.2-00.20.50.80.90.90.80.60.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Ormond Beach, Halifax River, Florida
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Ormond Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:59 AM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:04 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:26 PM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:32 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.70.80.70.60.50.30.20-00.10.20.50.60.80.80.70.60.40.30.20.10.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.