Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Olmos Park, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:25PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 12:10 AM CDT (05:10 UTC) Moonrise 4:06AMMoonset 5:11PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Olmos Park, TX
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location: 29.4, -98.48     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 230315
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin/san antonio tx
1015 pm cdt Mon may 22 2017

Update /minor changes in pops/
the current forecast trends show the nocturnal and elevated nature of
the convection moving into west central tx and approaching the hill
country. Pops are reconfigured to remove the isolated evening pops
that covered along and east of i-35 before midnight and boost slighty
the late evening rain chance over the NRN hill country. The storms
should begin a general weakening trend soon, but this weakening
process takes longer into the night when driving forces include
moderate shear and steep mid level lapse rates. Isolated strong to
severe storms are thus possible mainly as the cells enter into our
hill country counties. Rainfall potential remains a minimal concern
given progressive cell motions over 30 mph.

Prev discussion /issued 700 pm cdt Mon may 22 2017/
aviation...

shra/tsra currently over western texas and southeastern new mexico
may form into clusters as they move to the east and southeast this
evening. They may reach the edwards plateau and hill country late
evening into overnight. Currently, expect no impacts to the tafs as
they should dissipate north and west of the sites. However, will
monitor radar and model trends for possible updates to mention. An
upper level shortwave and surface cold front move across our area
midday through early evening Tuesday. Shra/tsra will accompany these
features and maintained vcsh for kaus/ksat/kssf 18z-00z. Forecast
soundings show capping will likely weaken allowing for isold tsra and
chances are high enough to add prob30s to the those sites. Gs/gr are
possible with the stronger tsra, though no mention is made as chances
are low. Widespread MVFR CIGS this evening slowly lower to ifr as
patchy light br develops overnight. CIGS rise back into MVFR during
the morning, then low endVFR in the afternoon. MVFR cigs/vsbys are
possible in/near shra/tsra. Clouds become few-sctVFR level Tuesday
evening as a drier airmass moves in. Winds become vrbl 5 kts or less
tonight, then nly on Tuesday increasing to 10 to 20 kts and gusty
midday into evening as the front moves across our area.

Prev discussion... /issued 252 pm cdt Mon may 22 2017/
short term (tonight through Tuesday night)...

the weather has been fairly quiet across our CWA today with storms
confined to locations to the east. Cloud cover has kept things mostly
in check with north winds also continuing to keep the surface rather
cool. Temperatures are currently in the lower to upper 70s. The focus
tonight will shift to northwest of our cwa. There is a shortwave
trough embedded in the longwave trough axis that is currently
rotating across new mexico. This system should kick off a complex of
showers and thunderstorms which could possibly congeal into a line of
storms across west texas. The environment across the region will
support some severe storms well to our northwest. This complex of
activity will move southeast through the late afternoon and evening.

Latest high-res guidance brings a decaying line of showers and storms
to the northern hill country counties around midnight. The idea of a
decaying complex seems plausible given weaker CAPE values over our
area and the loss of daytime heating. The latest day 1 outlook from
spc has our northwestern CWA clipped with a marginal risk and this
seems good based on latest thinking. Will go with 30 to 50 pops for
the hill country with 20s and 30s elsewhere mainly after 06z. Lows
will bottom out in the 60s with low 60s in the hill country.

The active weather pattern will continue tomorrow as an impulse
rotating around the main upper low will send a cold front south into
texas. This front will arrive to our northern counties around noon
and should quickly move through the area during the afternoon. The
timing of the FROPA should help increase strong to severe storm
chances. CAPE values will approach 1500-2500 j/kg with the higher
values across the southern counties where the best chances for severe
storms will be located and this is where a slight risk is in effect.

Main threats for any severe weather will be large hail and damaging
winds. All storms should exit the region to the south around 7 pm
leaving a quiet night for Tuesday night. Lows behind the front
Wednesday morning will bottom out in the 50s and low 60s. The record
low for austin bergstrom on Wednesday is 58 which could be
threatened.

Long term (Wednesday through Monday)...

dry weather is expected to return to the forecast Wednesday through
Saturday behind the cold front. The next system is slated to push
into the region Sunday with another weaker front moving into the
region. This will bring another chance of showers and storms to the
area. There are some discrepancies between the medium range guidance
and will just forecast 30 pops Sunday and Monday to cover the threat.

It is too early to get into specifics but some strong storms would be
possible. High temperatures in the extended will start off in the
lower to middle 80s on Wednesday before returning to the 90s areawide
by Friday. Slightly cooler weather returns Sunday and Monday with
the increased rain chances.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Austin camp mabry 66 82 58 84 63 / 40 50 30 - 0
austin bergstrom intl airport 64 81 56 84 60 / 30 50 30 - 0
new braunfels muni airport 65 82 56 84 61 / 30 50 30 - 0
burnet muni airport 62 77 54 83 61 / 50 50 20 - 0
del rio intl airport 68 85 60 86 65 / 30 30 10 - 0
georgetown muni airport 63 79 55 82 62 / 40 50 20 - 0
hondo muni airport 67 85 55 85 61 / 40 40 20 - 0
san marcos muni airport 64 82 55 84 61 / 30 50 30 - 0
la grange - fayette regional 66 82 56 83 62 / 20 50 30 - 0
san antonio intl airport 67 82 58 85 63 / 30 40 30 - 0
stinson muni airport 68 82 58 85 63 / 30 40 30 - 0

Ewx watches/warnings/advisories
None.

Mesoscale/aviation... 04
synoptic/grids... Oaks
public service/data collection... Williams


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kelly Air Force Base, TX5 mi72 minNE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F66°F82%1011.6 hPa
San Antonio, Stinson Municipal Airport, TX5 mi17 minNNE 410.00 miFair72°F64°F79%1011.7 hPa
San Antonio, San Antonio International Airport, TX10 mi19 minN 610.00 miOvercast71°F64°F79%1012.3 hPa
Randolph Air Force Base, TX14 mi72 minN 610.00 miOvercast71°F69°F93%1012.3 hPa
Castroville Municipal Airport, TX20 mi15 minN 57.00 miFair67°F66°F96%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from SKF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NE11N7N8NE9N9N7N11NE10NE11NE9NE10NE9NE11NE9NE7E8E6E5NE8NE6NE6NE9N6
1 day agoNE9NE7NE7NE8NE9NE9NE10NE11NE12NE15NE14N16NE10
G17
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2 days agoE8SE8SE12N9E8E9E6E10NE7NE10NE10NE10N10N11N5N9NE9NE8NE9NE7NE7NE10NE7NE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.