Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 7:29 PM Moonrise 1:11 PM   Moonset 2:44 AM

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GMZ552 Expires:202404170845;;858762 Fzus54 Klix 162022 Cwflix
coastal waters forecast national weather service new orleans la 322 pm cdt Tue apr 16 2024
pascagoula to atchafalaya river out to 60 nm
seas are provided as a range of the average height of the highest 1/3 of the waves - .along with the occasional height of the average highest 10 percent of the waves.
gmz550-552-170845- coastal waters from port fourchon la to lower atchafalaya river la out 20 nm- coastal waters from the southwest pass of the mississippi river to port fourchon louisiana out 20 nm- 322 pm cdt Tue apr 16 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet, occasionally to 5 feet. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Thursday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Thursday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Saturday night - East winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Northeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the evening.
winds and seas higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 322 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
southerly flow will persist over the area through the week with high pressure anchored to our east.

FXUS64 KLIX 162022 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 322 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper level ridging has moved to our east, leaving influence from an upper low moving into the upper midwest. An frontal system attendant with the low is approaching the lower Mississippi Valley, but will lift north of us due to a Gulf high at the surface (connected to the Bermuda high) that extends upward to H5.
This interaction will give us zonal flow through the end of the period.

As we move into the end of the period upper level moisture brings cirrus cloud cover, but mid and lower levels remain fairly dry.
Rain is not an issue, although a sprinkle here and there can't be ruled out. Temperatures will be above normal, lows significantly higher generally by 10 degrees and highs by at least a few degrees. With the pressure gradients between the high in the gulf and lower to the north we see southeasterly to southerly winds up to 10kt.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Monday night)
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Generally, into the weekend, we see drying in the upper levels, but moistening in the lower. So, we'll still have clouds, but more in the lower levels. In the long term, we continue with the zonal flow but have several short waves moving through the area pulling varying amounts of moisture into the area. The most significant is roughly Sunday. After this system passes, we move into dryer and cooler conditions

Until the front arrives the weather will be unseasonably warm across the local area, with highs for at least Thursday and Friday well into the 80s across most of the area. On Friday, if we were to get full sunshine, soundings are supportive of highs around 90 away from marine influences. That would be right around record territory at our main climate sites. Highs greater than 90 degrees are a rare event in April, even in southeast Louisiana. As noted yesterday, Baton Rouge has only exceeded 90 degrees in April 3 times in the last 25 years. However, can't ignore that NBM probabilities of the high being at or above 90 degrees on Friday exceed 40 percent for a good chunk of the area near and north of a Bogalusa-Hammond-Bayou Sorrel line. Saturday will likely be the transition day, with highs Sunday and Monday mainly in the 70s.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Current conditions at VFR to MVFR (due to CIG) across the area.
Early morning hours see possibility of reduction of visibilities (lowest forecast at 4SM) due to mist and lowering stratus deck ceiling in some locations dropping conditions to IFR. Overall, end of period conditions will be very similar to this past morning and will wait to see if winds drop enough for fog formation. If there is a favored location for impactful fog on Wednesday morning, it will be KMCB.

MARINE
Issued at 203 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

With the zonal flow, gradient induced flow with a strong southerly component is on tap. Wind speeds will remain on the low end of the scale, likely not in excess of 10kt. With the frontal system coming over the weekend, we could see some headline level winds.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 66 81 65 82 / 0 10 10 10 BTR 70 86 70 87 / 0 10 0 10 ASD 68 82 67 84 / 0 0 0 0 MSY 70 82 70 84 / 0 0 0 0 GPT 67 78 67 80 / 0 10 0 0 PQL 64 81 65 82 / 0 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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Manilla
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Tue -- 02:44 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:31 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:08 AM CDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:10 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:49 PM CDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

Independence Island
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Tue -- 02:43 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:54 AM CDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:31 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:10 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:46 PM CDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:27 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Independence Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana, Tide feet

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