Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Texas City, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 5:23PM Thursday November 22, 2018 4:43 AM CST (10:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:21PMMoonset 6:01AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 323 Am Cst Thu Nov 22 2018
Today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers early in the morning. A slight chance of sprinkles in the late morning and afternoon.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of sprinkles.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..West winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Monday night..North winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 323 Am Cst Thu Nov 22 2018
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Decreasing rain coverage along with lowering winds and seas can be expected today. The next disturbance will move across the area on Friday and will bring another round of showers and embedded Thunderstorms. Southeast to south winds will return to the area Saturday afternoon through Saturday night ahead of the next cold front. This strong front will move through the waters on Sunday with advisories likely needed in its wake for both building seas and strengthening north winds.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Texas City, TX
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location: 29.47, -94.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 221012
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
412 am cst Thu nov 22 2018

Discussion
After a long period of off and on rain, thanksgiving day looks dry
for most, though some light rain showers and sprinkles look to
persist near the coast. After the brief respite, Friday will bring
another chance of showers, and even a smattering of thunderstorms
east of i-45. A reinforcing front arrives Sunday, leaving high
pressure in control until another cold front arrives in the second
half of next week. Though the weather pattern remains active,
relative impacts from sensible weather still do not look terribly
significant at this time.

Near term [through today]
A large area of widespread showers have been slowly drifting to
the southeast through the night, and by now the radar is clear to
the northwest of a line parallel to the coast roughly cutting
through the urban core of houston. Clouds are a little more
complicated, but there has been some clearing up in
houston trinity polk, with scattered to broken clouds elsewhere
where it has stopped raining, and overcast skies closer to the
coast.

Look for these trends to continue this morning, as the swath of
showers will continue to slowly drift southeast. While the
immediate coast may not manage to free themselves of some
sprinkles, most should be dry today. Look for sunny skies to hold
where things have already cleared, and look for low clouds to
erode slowly from the northeast to southwest on northeasterly
winds. That said, the clearing will probably not make very deep
progress, with at least scattered clouds in the north and
northwest, and broken to overcast skies generally holding tight
near the coast - particularly in the southwest.

With all of this going on, high temperatures look pretty uniform
across the area today, right around or just above 60 degrees.

Basically, the sunny spots are also clear enough now that they'll
start colder and so the extra Sun will be put into overcoming that
cooler start.

Short term [tonight through Saturday]
While we'll get a bit of a break with shortwave ridging today into
tonight, Friday will bring some rain chances back to at least the
eastern portions of the area. A deep upper trough in the northern
stream will pivot through the central us, supporting a cold front
attached to a low in southern canada. The height falls should help
draw a coastal low down by brownsville up to the northeast, and as
the two surface features phase together, rain and some storms will
blossom. There continues to be pretty strong consensus that the
timing of this phasing will keep activity pretty limited for most
of the area, but there should be at least a slight chance for some
showers for all of southeast texas tomorrow. If anyone has a shot
for some heavier showers or some thunderstorms, it will come east
of i-45 early this afternoon.

Winds will briefly turn northwesterly in the wake of this leading
front, but quickly back to westerly, and roll right back to
onshore flow on Saturday as a new low pressure center develops in
the lee of the rockies in southwest colorado. Continue to feel
good about overshooting guidance with high temperatures on
Saturday looking at onshore flow at the surface, and southwesterly
flow at 850.

Long term [Saturday night through Thursday]
This low will hook down to the ok ks border before ejecting
northeastward towards the great lakes. The cold front will surge
southeastward as it gets shoved by trailing high pressure dropping
into texas. The GFS and NAM are quick, doing this Sunday morning,
while the euro lags by a few hours into Sunday afternoon. Winds
immediately behind the front should get fairly stout, but at this
point i'm thinking a wind advisory may only be a possible
consideration for the barrier islands.

Regardless, none of the models are able generate much more than
some scattered showers near the coast and over the gulf on Sunday.

With precipitable water dropping below half an inch in all the
guidance behind the lead front, not even the quick flip back to
onshore flow looks to be enough to manage much precip.

Now, with such a strong push by the front, one might often expect
a nice, strong cold blast behind the front. But... Though sweeping
through, this front looks pretty shallow. The 850 700 low ends up
moving only from kansas to missouri and northeast from there in
all of the guidance, shunting the coldest post-frontal air
eastward long before it reaches us. The euro makes a good push
down with 850 temps falling to 3ish degrees c early next week, so
i'll still bring crockett down to the low to middle 30s for a
night or two.

High pressure, gradual warming, and fair weather will dominate
most of the first half of the week as it moves across the state of
texas, but as the week GOES on, look for another shot at lee
cyclogenesis, eventually bringing another front our way in the
second half of the week. Given the signals in the guidance now,
i'm not really going to bother in speculating much more deeply on
that right now.

Aviation [06z TAF issuance]
Vfr conditions to prevail through the forecast. Scattered showers
should gradually end after midnight as mid upper level weather
system shifts east of the area, with mid to high level bkn to ovc
cigs slowly clearing this morning before increasing again ahead of
another system late thu. Light ene winds will remain in place
through the forecast cycle for inland locations, although gls may
hold stronger winds.

Evans

Marine
Decreasing rain coverage along with lowering winds and seas
can be expected today as a storm system moves off to the east.

The next system and associated showers isolated thunderstorms
will move through the area on Friday. Onshore winds will
resume Saturday afternoon through Saturday night ahead of
the next cold front. This strong front will move through the
waters on Sunday with advisories likely needed in its wake
for both building seas and strengthening north winds. 42

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 62 51 71 48 76 0 10 30 0 0
houston (iah) 63 51 69 51 76 0 10 40 0 0
galveston (gls) 61 59 69 58 70 30 10 40 0 0

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until noon cst today for the
following zones: coastal waters from freeport to matagorda
ship channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island
to freeport tx out 20 nm.

Small craft advisory until noon cst today for the following
zones: waters from freeport to matagorda ship channel tx
from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high island to freeport tx
from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Luchs
short term... Luchs
long term... Luchs
aviation... Evans
marine... 42


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 8 mi43 min E 5.1 G 6 52°F 56°F1024.9 hPa (-0.4)
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 8 mi43 min N 6 G 7 51°F 59°F1023.9 hPa (-0.0)
GTOT2 11 mi43 min ENE 4.1 G 6 54°F 62°F1024.1 hPa (-0.3)
GRRT2 13 mi43 min N 4.1 G 6 52°F 56°F1024.5 hPa (+0.0)
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 14 mi43 min NE 8 G 8.9 52°F 58°F1024.7 hPa (-0.4)
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 19 mi43 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 51°F 59°F1024.7 hPa (-0.0)
HIST2 22 mi43 min N 5.1 G 6 51°F 58°F1024.8 hPa (-1.4)
KXIH 24 mi28 min ENE 9.9 55°F 52°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 25 mi33 min ENE 9.7 G 16 57°F 65°F1024.9 hPa55°F
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 32 mi43 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 51°F 65°F1023.7 hPa (-0.4)
LUIT2 33 mi43 min NNE 8.9 G 11 53°F 1023.8 hPa (-1.1)
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 42 mi43 min NNE 8 G 11 50°F 1024.7 hPa (-1.1)
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 46 mi43 min NNE 7 G 8.9 52°F 59°F1024.4 hPa (-1.5)
FPST2 46 mi43 min N 8.9 G 11 52°F 58°F1023.6 hPa (-1.5)

Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX15 mi51 minNNE 410.00 miLight Rain54°F52°F93%1024.6 hPa
High Island 179A (Apache Corp), LA24 mi68 minE 1310.00 miOvercast55°F51°F88%1023.7 hPa
Houston / Ellington, TX24 mi1.9 hrsN 07.00 miOvercast54°F48°F82%1025.4 hPa

Wind History from GLS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE11NE12NE12NE17NE12NE15E10NE11NE12E8N6E6NE6NE9NE10N10N14N14NE12NE14NE9N7NE4
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Tide / Current Tables for Port Bolivar, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Thu -- 02:26 AM CST     -0.13 knots Min Ebb
Thu -- 06:01 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 06:48 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:19 AM CST     -1.97 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 12:33 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:57 PM CST     2.27 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:20 PM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:21 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:19 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 11:41 PM CST     Full Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.3-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.9-1.4-1.8-2-1.9-1.7-1.2-0.50.41.322.321.510.50.1-0.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.