Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manvel, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:14PM Saturday May 25, 2019 8:37 AM CDT (13:37 UTC) Moonrise 12:20AMMoonset 11:19AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 431 Am Cdt Sat May 25 2019
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Isolated sprinkles early in the morning. Isolated sprinkles late.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Scattered sprinkles after midnight.
Sunday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday..South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday..South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 431 Am Cdt Sat May 25 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Generally moderate onshore winds and elevated seas will persist through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manvel, TX
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location: 29.47, -95.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 250842
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
342 am cdt Sat may 25 2019

Discussion
It's been 12 hours since the last time I Sat here writing the
forecast discussion, and i'll be honest with you - I spent a brief
moment wondering if I could copy and paste the afternoon afd and
see if anyone noticed. Anyway, here's some thoughts on the
memorial day weekend.

- weather-wise, this weekend should be pretty ideal for the
"opening" of summer. Like the last several days, it will be more
like a summer day than spring. So, though the temperatures will
not be unheard of, it is pretty warm for the time of year, so be
sure to enjoy plenty of water and shade as part of your
observances.

- rain should largely be out of the picture for most of the
weekend. Saturday and Sunday may squeeze out a couple sprinkles
or even a brief shower or two, but rain will not be a concern
for most everyone.

- while the weather is pretty great for outdoor activities, and
the temperatures will definitely have you thinking about the
water, use extra caution if you take a trip to the beach. The
persistent, breezy, onshore flow has tides running above normal
and we'll have strong rip currents through the weekend.

Near term [through today]
For several days now we've been advertising the development of a
very strong ridge aloft over the southeast us - and, here it is.

Multiple upper air sites observed a 594 dm height at 500 mb with
this evening's balloon launch. Given lake charles was at 592 dm
and corpus was at 590 dm, a 591 contour line on a 500 mb chart
would certainly slice through our area. After starting out the day
in the lower 70s up north and nearly 80 degrees at the coast, look
for afternoon highs to reach towards the lower 90s away from the
gulf, and in the middle to upper 80s at the water.

The radar has shown some light streamer... Well, even showers seems
too strong a word here. Isolated streamer sprinkles can be found,
and I suppose we could see some of that carry on through the day.

The increased heating may help kick start some
updrafts... But... Precipitable water is down around one inch and
i'd expect we'll also see some solid mixing out of low level
moisture. All in all, decided to put an area of sprinkles in, but
not even enough confidence to go with slight chance pops for
today. The ridge should be large and in charge.

Short term [tonight through Monday night]
Changes through memorial day should be fairly subtle. By the end
of Monday, the center of the upper high will drop south to the
gulf coast, and work a little bit to the west. At the same time,
an upper trough will be about to drop off the front range and a
low pressure center will begin to form up on the colorado kansas
border. As a result, though the highest 500 heights are likely to
be closer to us, things will be blunted and we should see some
modest 500 mb height falls into Monday. Along with precipitable
water also rising modestly, I continue to bring in some slight
chances of showers in on Monday. Not sure that we'll see to much.

After all, we'll still have a stacked high to our east and a
fairly stable setup. But... We are getting signs that things will
start to break down.

Similarly, temperatures should stay pretty stable through the rest
of the weekend. Some increased clouds and possibly some showers
for some would likely knock a bit off the top of the temperatures
- but no more than a few degrees.

Long term [Monday night through Saturday]
While we have pretty strong agreement through the holiday in the
guidance, things still do diverge as we head deeper into next
week. In broad strokes, the upper trough is still very likely to
drop into the central plains and eject northeast towards the great
lakes. The surface low will lead it along that track, which will
leave us well, well south of the main activity. No surprise here
that spc's extended outlooks are far to our north.

The specifics on how the tail end of the low's cold front will
affect is considerably more fuzzy. Certainly, given the strength
of our ridge, i'm pleased that the idea of a front strongly
driving into the area has been abandoned in the guidance. The
question will be... How close does the front make it, and what will
its impact be on the onshore flow into the frontal zone? Went into
this in some detail this afternoon, and not much is very
different. Because of this, I held to slowly building up to a peak
of solidly "chance" pops on Thursday. I expect, unless the
guidance envelope locks in shortly, that the forecast will
continue to slowly evolve to what will emerge as the preferred
scenario.

Aviation [09z TAF update]
We will likely start the day with a mix of MVFR CIGS across SE tx as
moderate onshore winds persist at the lower layers of the atmosphere.

This should give way to bknVFR ceilings by this afternoon with some
isolated showers possible. Given the persistent larger scale weather
features not a lot of change is expected with this forecast the rest
of the weekend. 41

Marine
While winds have decreased across the coastal waters, this deep on-
shore fetch has persisted... And is expected to continue the rest of
the holiday weekend. Will keep the scec flags in place for the near
and offshore waters today tonight and drop them for the bays. Winds
and seas should remain right around scec criteria the next few days
(especially across the offshore waters) as we remain on the western
fringes of the strong upper ridge over the SE u.S..

This larger scale weather pattern does keep conditions favorable for
minor coastal flooding issues, with elevated wave run-up during high
tides for gulf facing locations. Additionally... The surf will remain
elevated to rough at times... With strong rip currents a concern.

41

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 92 73 91 72 91 0 10 0 10 10
houston (iah) 91 74 90 74 90 0 10 0 0 10
galveston (gls) 85 78 84 78 84 0 10 0 10 20

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 5 am cdt early this
morning for the following zones: galveston bay... Matagorda
bay.

Small craft should exercise caution through late tonight for the
following zones: coastal waters from freeport to matagorda
ship channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island
to freeport tx out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to
matagorda ship channel tx from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from
high island to freeport tx from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Luchs
short term... Luchs
long term... Luchs
aviation... 41
marine... 41


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 19 mi38 min SSE 4.1 G 8.9 80°F 81°F1017.3 hPa (+1.9)
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 25 mi38 min SSE 15 G 16 80°F 81°F1017.3 hPa (+2.0)
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 26 mi38 min SE 14 G 18 80°F 81°F1017.9 hPa (+1.9)
GRRT2 29 mi38 min S 9.9 G 13 80°F 81°F1017.3 hPa (+2.2)
LUIT2 31 mi38 min SE 9.9 G 14 80°F 81°F1017.7 hPa (+2.1)
GTOT2 34 mi38 min SSE 6 G 9.9 81°F 81°F1017.9 hPa (+2.3)
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 36 mi38 min SSE 15 G 17 84°F 81°F1017.2 hPa (+2.4)
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 37 mi44 min SE 11 G 13 80°F 82°F1018.1 hPa
FPST2 37 mi38 min SE 14 G 15 80°F 81°F1017.4 hPa (+2.3)
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 43 mi98 min SE 12 G 14 80°F1017.1 hPa (+2.4)
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 47 mi38 min SSE 11 G 15 80°F 81°F1018.4 hPa (+2.2)

Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston Southwest Airport, TX5 mi43 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F73°F94%1018.3 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX9 mi45 minSE 510.00 miFair79°F73°F82%1018.1 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX14 mi45 minSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F72°F79%1018.1 hPa
Houston / Ellington, TX16 mi1.8 hrsE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F71°F89%1016.9 hPa
Houston, Sugar Land Municipal / Hull Field Airport, TX17 mi45 minSE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F75°F94%1017.7 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX17 mi43 minVar 38.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from AXH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:18 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:00 AM CDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:46 PM CDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.60.50.50.40.30.20.10-0-0-00.10.20.30.50.60.70.70.70.70.70.60.6

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas (2)
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:18 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:22 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:58 AM CDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:10 PM CDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.