Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manvel, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:17PM Saturday February 23, 2019 3:30 PM CST (21:30 UTC) Moonrise 10:55PMMoonset 9:52AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 949 Am Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am cst this morning...
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and gusty in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy. Widespread dense fog late in the morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely late in the morning, then a slight chance of showers early in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest near 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Wednesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 949 Am Cst Sat Feb 23 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Dense sea fog will persist until late morning. A cold front will push through by early afternoon, helping to improve visibilities and eliminate fog. A reinforcing front will push off the coast early Sunday morning. Winds will veer to the east on Monday and persist through midweek.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manvel, TX
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location: 29.47, -95.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 231751
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1151 am cst Sat feb 23 2019

Aviation
Prefrontal trough near a jas-hou-lbx line with the cold front
quickly catching up to it. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms still possible along and south of it as it
overtakes the front. Winds turn to the NW and gusty for an hour or
so then should start to back to the wnw-w this afternoon as the
big wound up surface low over oklahoma lifts ene. MVFR-ifr
ceilings along and south of the boundary with fog still along the
immediate coast and out over the gulf. Very abrupt improvement to
vfr in the wake of the front with mainly cirrus this afternoon.

Winds relaxing this evening and westerly then increase as second
push of cold air comes through the area between 07-10z gradually
swinging around to the nne late Sunday morning.

45

Marine
So still have the dense sea fog hanging tough over the gulf
waters at 1 4-1 mile but over the bays the patchy nature still
holding on with 1 to 4 miles. Cold front just about to enter
galveston bay's northwest corner and will see showers and possibly
a few thunderstorms as it does so. Expecting gusty winds with the
storms. Visibility should soar to unrestricted within hour of the
frontal passage. Extended the nearshore waters marine dense fog
advisory to 1 pm to cover the fropa. Winds tonight should ramp up
with the colder air surge and will very likely hoist SCA flags for
the gulf waters and an scec for the bays in the coming afternoon
package.

45

Prev discussion issued 1054 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
update...

the north central warm front is being drawn further north into
our far northern CWA in response to an approaching central texas
cold front. Along this pre-frontal trough, clustering showers with
an isolated storm or two moving through san jacinto and polk counties
this hour. Highest winds of around 30 mph in gust are occurring
with the strongest cells. The region remains pretty capped the
further south you go as only streamer showers are moving through
the city thus keeping many of the rodeo activities and parades dry
for the moment. With the cold front entering the northwestern
forecast area within the next few hours, with what is left of the
warm frontal boundary pre-frontal trough washing away, feel that
any shower or rogue storm will impact the east-southeastern cwa
through noon and that will be it. Expect a quick drying out from
the brazos river valley southeastward going into the early afternoon.

The dry air mass with dew points in the upper teens to lower 20s
out over western texas' trans pecos region will filter into our
more western counties and modify through Sunday morning. Clearing
skies to just cirrus will allow for areawide milky sunshine by
mid-afternoon for many. Late afternoon temperatures should rebound
a touch but not much due to the mixing created by a moderate westerly
wind. A nice, dry day on Sunday with a chilly start in the 40s
but warming nicely in the near normal upper 60s within the
resident drier air mass. 30f dew points should lower Sunday pm
%rhs into the 30 percentile under a weakening and veering north
breeze. 31
prev discussion... Issued 538 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
aviation...

visibilites have improved south of the warm front which is draped
south of cll but north of uts, but ceilings remain at ifr lifr
criteria across all SE tx terminals this morning. A cold front
will push from NW to SE across the area this morning and into the
early afternoon, reaching cll around 12z and gls closer to 18z.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and
along the boundary with this frontal passage. Behind the cold
front, conditions will improve as drier, cooler air ushers in.

Vfr conditions are anticipated by this afternoon, clearing from nw
to se. Winds will strengthen and be gusty at times (mainly during
the afternoon) with the passing of the front. A secondary shot of
colder and drier air will push into the region during the early
morning hours Sunday, and as a result winds will shift more
northerly between 9 and 13 kts.

Hathaway
prev discussion... Issued 348 am cst Sat feb 23 2019
discussion...

a rather complicated weather pattern this morning. At 3 am, a warm
front extended across SE tx with areas of dense fog north of the
front and along the coast with improved visibility to the south of
the warm front. The front will march slowly north this morning and
most of SE tx will be south of the warm front by 12z. Will be
watching trends but think the dense fog advisory may be canceled
around 12z as visibility improves everywhere but along the
immediate coast where sea fog will remain in place until later
this morning. Low pressure had developed over NE new mexico with a
weak trough of low pressure or dry line extending south from the
low. The actual cold front still lags behinds in eastern nm. The
low will accelerate to the NE this morning toward southern ks and
this will allow the cold front to catch up to the dry line trough
and rapidly push across the state. The front will trigger a line
of shra tsra between 8-11 am as it crosses SE tx. Pw values
increase to between 1.30 and 1.60 inches but forecast soundings
show capping in the 850-700 mb layer. The cap is forecast to erode
but not so sure that it will. Low level lapse rates are meager
but mid level lapse rates look robust. SE tx looks to be in a rrq
by 18z but by then the front will have already cleared the coast.

It just kind of looks like severe weather parameters are a bit out
of phase and instability parameters look much less impressive
than yesterday so think it'll be just a broken line of showers and
thunderstorms this morning. SPC has much of SE tx outlooked in
marginal risk for the potential for strong storms. 12z soundings
will probably give a better idea of cap strength. High pops still
in order as most areas should see some showers ahead of the front
and shra tsra with the FROPA later this morning.

High temperatures today will be tricky. A very warm start to the
day with temperatures near or exceeding 70 degrees. Skies will
clear rapidly behind the front before cirrus begins to stream
overhead later in the afternoon. West winds will develop behind
the front will increase and become gusty but the cold air
advection looks weak in the wake of the front. Would not be
surprised if a few locations reached 80 degrees today. The cirrus
and mixing from the winds should limit how warm it gets today.

Generally clear skies are tonight through early Monday. Clouds
begin to return late Monday as onshore winds return and low level
moisture increases. Pw values increase to around 1.15 inches and
the moisture profile becomes saturated between the sfc and 800 mb.

Capping is noted above the saturated layer so would expect
just scattered showers beginning late Monday night and probably
persisting into Wednesday. Global models diverge with how to
handle the next cold front. The ECMWF still brings the front
through on Thursday while the GFS and canadian hold the front back
until Saturday. Am kind of leaning toward the GFS at this time but
basically split the difference for temperatures and pops for
Thursday and beyond. 43
marine...

a marine dense fog advisory remains in effect through 10 am for
galveston and matagorda bay, and through noon for the nearshore
waters. A cold front will pass through the gulf waters by early this
afternoon which should eliminate fog and improve visibilities as a
drier airmass ushers in. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible with this frontal passage. Behind the front moderate
west northwesterly winds will fill in for the remainder of the day.

Expect to see moderate to strong wind speeds by early Sunday morning
as a second shot of colder drier air pushes into the region. Winds
will turn more north northeasterly behind this secondary boundary
and scec conditions will likely be needed for the near and offshore
gulf waters.

High pressure builds into the region by Sunday midday, and wind
speeds should lower by Sunday evening. Moderate easterly winds will
prevail by Monday morning, setting up a lengthy fetch across the
northern gulf of mexico. This long easterly fetch looks to continue
through much of next week, and as a result, tide levels will likely
be on the rise as early as Monday. Latest model guidance indicates
forecast tide levels rising to near 2.0 ft above mllw, but would not
be surprised if we see tide levels approach closer to 3.0 feet by
mid week. Therefore, will have to watch for possible run-up issues
from mid-week on. Otherwise, unsettled weather should return to the
coastal waters by Tuesday.

Hathaway

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 70 42 67 41 64 70 0 0 0 0
houston (iah) 74 45 68 46 65 80 0 0 0 10
galveston (gls) 69 54 66 53 63 70 0 0 0 20

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until 1 pm cst this afternoon for the
following zones: coastal waters from freeport to matagorda
ship channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high island
to freeport tx out 20 nm.

Discussion... 31
aviation marine... 45


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 19 mi36 min WNW 8 G 11 72°F 65°F1011.3 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 25 mi36 min N 7 G 8.9 69°F 61°F1011.9 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 26 mi36 min NW 5.1 G 8.9 69°F 60°F1011.8 hPa
GRRT2 29 mi36 min NE 8 G 9.9 65°F 65°F1011.8 hPa
LUIT2 31 mi36 min N 9.9 G 12 70°F 62°F1011.5 hPa
GTOT2 34 mi36 min N 8.9 G 12 67°F 59°F1011.5 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 36 mi36 min N 13 G 15 70°F 60°F1011.1 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 37 mi36 min NNW 8 G 14 72°F 60°F1012 hPa
FPST2 37 mi36 min NW 11 G 18 72°F 59°F1011.2 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 47 mi36 min NNW 11 G 14 63°F 62°F1011.5 hPa

Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston Southwest Airport, TX5 mi35 minNNW 9 G 1510.00 miFair72°F48°F43%1012.2 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX9 mi37 minNNW 1010.00 miFair72°F48°F43%1012.2 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX14 mi37 minWNW 1110.00 miOvercast72°F45°F38%1012.2 hPa
Houston / Ellington, TX16 mi40 minW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F46°F41%1012.5 hPa
Houston, Sugar Land Municipal / Hull Field Airport, TX17 mi37 minNNW 1210.00 miFair75°F46°F36%1012 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX17 mi35 minVar 6 G 159.00 miFair73°F41°F31%1011.8 hPa

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Last 24hrE4E5N3E3CalmE4W4--SE4S4SE4S3CalmS4SE3S8S5S3S6S8S8S4S4S4
1 day agoNE6NE8NE9NE6NE7N6N7N7NE6N5NE9NE7NE4NE6NE5N4N6N5NE6NE7N5NE5NE5E5
2 days agoNW8N10N6N6N4N6N6CalmNE5N3CalmN4NE6NE6NE6NE4NE7E8E8NE6NE6NE6NE8NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas
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Clear Lake
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Sat -- 12:55 AM CST     0.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:19 AM CST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:50 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:24 PM CST     0.40 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:43 PM CST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:54 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.10.10.20.30.40.40.30.20.10-0-000.10.2

Tide / Current Tables for Clear Lake, Harris Co. Park, Texas (2)
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Clear Lake
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:49 AM CST     0.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:21 AM CST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 09:50 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:19 PM CST     0.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:15 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:42 PM CST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:54 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.50.40.30.20.1000.10.20.40.50.60.60.50.40.30.20.20.10.20.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (16,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.