Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flagler Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:50PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:22 AM EDT (09:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:12AMMoonset 6:07PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 326 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..North northeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of showers through the night.
Saturday..East northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers.
Sunday..East southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Monday..South southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 326 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis.. High pressure will be to the north of the region through Saturday, then to the northeast later in the weekend. A strong cold front is expected to cross the region from the west Monday night into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flagler Beach, FL
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location: 29.48, -81.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 190742
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
342 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Near term through tonight ...

high pressure will remain to the north of the region this period,
with continued onshore flow. A combination of convergence in
enhanced pressure gradient, and weak troughs in the flow will yield
the chance for mainly coastal showers and stratus through tonight.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures will be expected for
today. For tonight, a broad range in readings is forecast, with the
onshore flow over coastal ga and NE fl leading to above normal
readings, while mainly clear skies well inland will yield readings
near to below normal.

Short term Friday through Saturday night ...

weak mid level trough oriented northeast to the southwest from
over the wern atlc to central fl will move east and southeast as
high pressure aloft extending across the ERN gulf of mexico
northward to the ohio valley will slowly move east by Saturday
afternoon. At the sfc... Large high pressure ridge across the
appalachians will slowly migrate east and off the coast of the mid
atlc states and new england. Only a gradual increase in moisture
is expected during this time period with deep easterly flow
developing. However, a strong subsidence inversion around
4500-6000 ft remains. Due to onshore flow, and weak disturbances
in east-northeast flow, and an enhanced low level coastal trough
in the morning hours... Chance of showers (forecast at or below 40
percent) are expected for the coastal areas and inland parts of
northeast fl. More veered flow developing Friday and continuing
into Saturday may enable a small chance of showers to push through
inland portions of southeast ga. A slight warming trend is
expected. High will manage to reach around 80 at the coast to
lower to mid 80s inland. Lows still likely to reach cool temps
upper 50s to lower 60s inland... And mid 60s to 70 at the coast.

Due to warm advection, and the potential for more low stratus and
a few showers, warmer overnight lows by a few degrees are expected
Saturday night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday ...

a return flow looks certain early in the long term period as low
level high pressure system off the u.S. Coast moves further east.

A pronounced and vigorous mid upper level trough is forecast to
move east from the central plains, with some energy cutting off
over the lower ms valley by early Monday. A sfc cold front and
likely a squall line in advance of this system will progress
eastward from ms valley with sfc low along the front roughly over
portions of al ms and perhaps NRN ga. The frontal passage timing
is uncertain due to model disagreement and being 4-5days out, but
roughly speaking between Monday evening and Tuesday. The ecmwf
continues to be slower than GFS by around 12-18 hours. Partly to
mostly cloudy skies with warm and humid conditions will exist
Sunday through early Tuesday, then drier and much cooler air
expected to filter into the area Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Temps likely below normal on Wednesday and then dipping into the
40s over inland areas Wednesday night.

A more unstable air-mass and warm advection will result in a good
chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday through Sunday
night... With increasing chances for showers and storms Monday
through Monday night. If ECMWF model is more accurate with timing,
high rain chances may extend into Tuesday as well. Storms may
become strong to severe Monday afternoon into Tuesday as bulk
shear increases and cold front pushes through the region. Surface
high pressure will build into the the southern u.S. Which may
result in breezy northwest flow on Wednesday.

Aviation
Continued onshore flow pattern will lead to periods of coastal
showers and stratus. While prevailingVFR conditions are forecast,
brief periods of lower conditions are expected as bands of showers
move in off the atlantic.

Marine
High pressure will be to the north of the region through Saturday,
then to the northeast later in the weekend. A strong cold front is
expected to cross the region from the west Monday night into
Tuesday.

Rip currents: high risk through Friday due to moderate onshore
flow and rough surf.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 79 55 82 57 0 0 0 0
ssi 76 70 79 67 20 10 0 10
jax 77 68 82 64 20 20 20 20
sgj 79 74 81 70 20 20 30 20
gnv 82 67 84 63 20 20 10 10
ocf 83 68 86 64 10 20 10 0

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk through Friday evening for coastal duval-
coastal nassau-flagler-st. Johns.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for coastal
nassau.

Coastal flood warning until 6 am edt Friday for clay-coastal
duval-flagler-inland duval-putnam-st. Johns.

Ga... High rip current risk through Friday evening for coastal camden-
coastal glynn.

Coastal flood advisory until 11 am edt this morning for coastal
camden-coastal glynn.

Am... Small craft advisory until noon edt Friday for waters from
altamaha sound ga to fernandina beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl from 20 to
60 nm-waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl from 20
to 60 nm.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Friday for coastal waters
from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl out 20 nm-
coastal waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl
out 20 nm-coastal waters from st. Augustine to flagler
beach fl out 20 nm.

Struble shashy


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 13 mi97 min E 8 77°F 1021 hPa70°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 27 mi82 min NE 15 G 17 77°F 78°F1019.2 hPa (-1.4)
RCYF1 31 mi52 min 79°F
41117 36 mi60 min 79°F7 ft

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Daytona Beach International Airport, FL21 mi29 minENE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F73°F91%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from XFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW5W4NW5CalmCalm43
1 day agoCalmCalm--------------------CalmCalmNW6NW6NW6NW6N5W5N5N7W5Calm
2 days agoW5----------------------CalmCalmW5W10W10W10NW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Smith Creek, Flagler Beach, Florida
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Smith Creek
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Thu -- 01:20 AM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:40 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:49 PM EDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.90.90.80.50.3-0-0.2-0.2-0.10.20.50.80.910.90.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.4

Tide / Current Tables for Bings Landing, Matanzas River, Florida
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Bings Landing
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:25 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:53 PM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:43 PM EDT     2.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.11.81.51.10.90.91.21.622.42.62.52.321.71.41.111.11.51.82.22.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.