Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bolivar Peninsula, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:13PM Sunday May 28, 2017 3:43 AM CDT (08:43 UTC) Moonrise 8:19AMMoonset 10:20PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1022 Pm Cdt Sat May 27 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday through Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday and Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1022 Pm Cdt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate onshore winds will persist through tonight. Winds and seas will gradually relax Sunday and Monday but rain chances will increase late Sunday night into Monday as a weak cold front approaches the coast. Strong Thunderstorms may move into the coastal waters and bays Sunday night or Monday. Persistent moderate southeasterly flow is expected to return on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bolivar Peninsula CDP, TX
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location: 29.49, -94.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 280440
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1140 pm cdt Sat may 27 2017

Aviation
Look for mainly MVFR ceilings to develop overnight with south winds
around 10 knots. Ceilings will lift tomorrow morning, but not expecting
vfr levels to be reached areawide until the late morning through early
afternoon hours. Expect shra tsra development (some possibly strong severe)
tomorrow afternoon to our W and NW along and ahead of a cold front with
activity working its way into our area late in the afternoon and on
into the evening hours. Much of our area will be settling into an increasing
cloud and increasing rain chance pattern as the upcoming week progresses.

42

Prev discussion issued 942 pm cdt Sat may 27 2017
update...

the previous forecast appears to be on track, and only minor
adjustments were made for current observations. 11
prev discussion... Issued 346 pm cdt Sat may 27 2017
discussion...

warm start to the day along with a break in the cloud cover
allowed readings to climb into the 90s for most inland sites. Look
for a general repeat for most of the area tonight & early Sunday
with stratus redeveloping overnight then some scattering out
during the day Sunday.

Potent cap should keep precip chances low for the 1st half of the
day Sunday. But guidance shows this eroding in the afternoon and
mostly gone across northern parts of the region toward late aftn
and evening - about the same time a weak frontal boundary edges
closer to SE tx. Expect some fairly rapid storm development along
the front. Considering the instability, with fcst capes > 4000
j kg and LI < -10c, expect some strong to severe cells to emerge
and make their way into northern parts of the region. Timing is a
touch different between models, but in general 4pm-midnight would
be of concern.

This diffuse front boundary outflow should make it closer to the
coast by Monday morning - about the time a disturbance in the sw
flow aloft approaches. A surge of deep pw's moving up from the
western gulf will further increase moisture values pooling along
the boundary to between 2-2.5". Similar to the event last week,
the potential for at least localized heavy rain exists. But the
challenge will again will be trying to fcst the boundary position
if when it all comes together. Current guidance, for what it's
worth this far out, depicts the region between i-10 and the coast
the place to keep an eye on late Sun night thru Mon aftn.

Tue into midweek, surface troffiness looks to persist somewhere
along the coast which should allow for periods of shra tstms to
continue across the area. We should eventually lose this trof as
it washes out during the 2nd half of the work week, but should be
getting into a more active SW flow aloft too. So at a minimum,
30-50% diurnally driven pops look like a good starting place. Was
left a good set of pops thru the period and made very few overall
changes.

Beyond Sunday night, forecast confidence is fairly low as a lot of
what will eventually happen will be driven on the meso microscale. 47
marine...

onshore winds should strengthen enough for caution conditions this
evening. Otherwise, winds should diminish slightly on Sunday as a
frontal boundary moves into SE texas from the north. This should
result in slightly lower seas and with tide levels continuing to
lower to near normal levels.

The beach hazards for this afternoon will continue with stronger rip
currents possible. Winds on Sunday will be around 15 knots which
may lead to some rip currents still be possible. 40

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 77 91 70 82 69 10 40 70 60 40
houston (iah) 78 92 74 81 71 10 30 70 70 40
galveston (gls) 81 88 78 82 76 20 20 60 80 40

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 7 am cdt Sunday for
the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high
island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high
island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 11
aviation marine... 42


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 3 mi44 min SSW 7 G 13 80°F 81°F1011.5 hPa (-0.7)
HIST2 12 mi44 min SSW 11 G 15 80°F 81°F1011.7 hPa (-0.6)
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 13 mi44 min SSW 13 G 19 81°F1010.7 hPa (-1.1)
GTOT2 17 mi44 min 81°F 81°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 19 mi54 min SSW 18 G 21 80°F 80°F3 ft1011 hPa (-1.3)78°F
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 19 mi44 min SW 16 G 22 81°F 81°F1011.1 hPa (-0.6)
KXIH 22 mi29 min WSW 19 G 24 81°F 77°F
GRRT2 22 mi44 min SSW 13 G 17 80°F 83°F1011 hPa (-1.0)
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 26 mi44 min SSW 7 G 11 81°F 80°F1011.1 hPa (-0.3)
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 31 mi44 min SSW 12 G 14 80°F 1012.2 hPa (-0.4)78°F
LYBT2 33 mi44 min S 9.9 G 12 80°F 81°F1010.6 hPa (+0.0)
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 40 mi44 min SSW 12 G 16 80°F 82°F1013.1 hPa (-0.5)
TXPT2 40 mi44 min SSW 14 G 20 80°F 80°F1011.8 hPa (-0.6)
LUIT2 41 mi44 min SSW 12 G 19 81°F 83°F
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 41 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 7 80°F 81°F1011.3 hPa (+0.0)
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 42 mi50 min SSW 9.9 G 17 1012 hPa
KVBS 49 mi24 min SSE 8.9 G 18 81°F 77°F

Wind History for Rollover Pass, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX22 mi52 minSSW 14 G 219.00 miOvercast82°F78°F88%1011.4 hPa
High Island 179A (Apache Corp), LA22 mi49 minWSW 18 G 236.00 miOvercast with Haze and Breezy82°F77°F84%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from GLS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12S17S17S13S15S14S12S15S14S15S15S14S13S14S11SE10SE13SE13SE12S13S13S14S17
G22
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1 day agoS18S17S19S13S14S13S10S13S13S11S13S13SE14SE14SE14S13S14S14SE13SE15S15S14S15S16
2 days agoS7S12S13
G22
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S19S20S18S17S17S17
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S12S14S17S20S19S20S19
G26
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G26

Tide / Current Tables for Rollover Pass, Texas
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Rollover Pass
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:03 AM CDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:19 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 12:34 PM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:19 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.30.20.10.10.30.50.711.31.51.61.61.61.61.51.51.41.41.31.31.21.10.9

Tide / Current Tables for Galveston Bay Entrance, Texas Current
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Galveston Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:55 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:29 AM CDT     2.86 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:20 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:06 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:11 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:20 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.4-2.9-2.1-10.11.22.22.82.82.521.610.50.20-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.7-1.3-2-2.7-3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.