Monday, July23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bolivar Peninsula, TX

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Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:17PM Monday July 23, 2018 10:38 AM CDT (15:38 UTC) Moonrise 4:08PMMoonset 2:12AM Illumination 81% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 339 Am Cdt Mon Jul 23 2018
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..East winds around 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 339 Am Cdt Mon Jul 23 2018
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. A light to occasionally moderate south to southwest flow is expected to persist through tonight. A weak frontal boundary around or just north of the area might bring variable or a light offshore flow Tuesday and Wednesday. A few showers and Thunderstorms will be possible with this boundary. A light to moderate onshore flow will return to the area toward the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bolivar Peninsula CDP, TX
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location: 29.49, -94.56     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 231524
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1024 am cdt Mon jul 23 2018

Near term [through today]
At 15z temperatures have reached the mid upper 80s making it feel
like mid 95s with humidity. Surface analysis has slow moving
frontal boundary over N texas and N louisiana. SW winds in the
boundary layer over the region will allow for another hot day
today. Upper air analysis shows northerly flow aloft with an
amplified pattern. Upper level ridge has moved back to the west
over the southern rockies with a broad trough east of the
mississippi river. Here are a few near term forecast notes:
- cloud cover may impact high temps today and MAX heat index which
people should not mind so much. Do not have enough confidence to
lower high temps for today based on cloud cover.

- what amdar soundings I could find with moisture profiles showed
quite a bit of dry air above 950mb which should easily mix.

Sounds are drier than most model soundings so I did try to mix
out some of the moisture in the afternoon with slightly lower
dewpoints. This still only made minimal impact on heat index
values. Still think mixing will be stronger than models think.

- frontal boundary coming into the area tonight tomorrow could
impact decision for heat advisory tomorrow.

Overpeck

Prev discussion issued 643 am cdt Mon jul 23 2018
Aviation
Intermittent MVFR stratus has developed again this morning between
iah and gls lbx and at least temporary ceiling restrictions will
be possible at these terminals through sunrise. Higher clouds
moving across the region on split channel satellite imagery have
helped break up this lower deck a bit and may need to amend to
clear ceilings out at iah should trends continue.VFR conditions
are expected to prevail mid to late morning with southwest winds
5-10 knots today becoming north to northeasterly this evening and
tonight as a cold front sags into the region. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible along this boundary after 00z, but
coverage appears to low to include mention in the tafs attm.

Huffman

Discussion
The heat continues across the region today and some relief
possible Tuesday with a weak cold front that pushes southwestward
through the region.

Early this morning widespread high cloudiness was overspreading
most of the region with more to the north-northwest. Temperatures
have been about the same or just slightly warmer and dewpoints
along the coast a little higher (which is somewhat concerning).

The cloud cover could make reaching the guidance forecast high
temperatures a challenge and have undercut the guidance slight on
temps but am higher with the dewpoints. This should yield
widespread 106-109 heat index readings for today and possibly some
isolated 110-111 readings. The southwest counties may not quite
reach the 108 heat advisory criteria given the expected afternoon
mixing there... But being off by a degree on the dewpoints would
certainly help get them to the criteria so am not willing to cut
it that fine to pull them out of the heat advisory. Heat advisory
in effect noon to 9 pm. Much more confident that areas along and
north of an angleton to sugarland to caldwell will see 108 or
greater heat index reading today. Burleson county could see 104
degrees today which is very close to needing an excessive heat
warning for the ambient temperature alone.

Richer moisture pooled along the weak frontal boundary over
south-central la and extending back up through netx will sag
southward this afternoon and evening and will lead to slight
chances for showers or thunderstorms across the northeast
counties tonight. The boundary continues to sag southwestward
tonight Tuesday and may produce some localized convergence along
and south of the highway 290 and i-10 corridors Tuesday. The S w
currently aiding the convection in eastern colorado western
kansas oklahoma should drop southward and help to destabilize the
region a least slightly before moving into an area of convergence
aloft. The lower levels of the model profiles don't support much
in the way of deep convection but if anything does develop it
will likely be accompanied by strong gusty winds with an inverted
v profile. Cooler temperatures over most the area Tuesday with the
exception of some of the southwestern areas which could still
warrant a heat advisory. Won't issue one yet there but it will
probably be a close call. The front continues to sag southwestward
Tuesday night and dissipated Wednesday. Rain chances remain
relatively low with the boundary Tuesday night Wednesday and the
southwest even though differential heating could accentuate the
boundary. Temperatures start the climb Wednesday and probably
reach back into the upper 90s. Rain chances looks slim but
possible Wednesday through Friday with daytime heating and mainly
the seabreeze.

Saturday a surge of deeper moisture should move into the area and
give most of the region at least a slight chance of rain. GFS and
ecmwf are both 'currently' bullish on rain chances next Monday
with another cold front that drops into the area... Will undercut
the rain chances for now until we get a little closer in time.

45

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 103 78 98 76 99 0 20 20 10 0
houston (iah) 101 78 96 78 97 0 10 20 10 0
galveston (gls) 92 82 89 81 90 0 10 20 10 10

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... Heat advisory until 9 pm cdt this evening for the following
zones: austin... Brazoria
islands... Brazos... Burleson... Chambers... Coastal
brazoria... Coastal galveston... Coastal harris... Coastal
jackson... Coastal matagorda... Colorado... Fort
bend... Galveston island and bolivar
peninsula... Grimes... Houston... Inland brazoria... Inland
galveston... Inland harris... Inland jackson... Inland
matagorda... Madison... Matagorda
islands... Montgomery... Northern liberty... Polk... San
jacinto... Southern
liberty... Trinity... Walker... Waller... Washington... Wharton.

Gm... None.

Near term... Overpeck


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 3 mi45 min W 13 G 17 84°F 85°F1013.1 hPa
HIST2 12 mi45 min WSW 12 G 16 84°F 87°F1013 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 13 mi45 min WSW 14 G 17 83°F 85°F1012.4 hPa
GTOT2 17 mi45 min W 12 G 14 83°F 89°F1012.8 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 19 mi39 min W 8 G 15 85°F 86°F1013.2 hPa (+0.9)
KXIH 22 mi24 min W 8 G 13 84°F 77°F
GRRT2 22 mi45 min W 8.9 G 12 84°F 86°F1012.8 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 26 mi45 min W 7 G 9.9 84°F 87°F1012.8 hPa
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 31 mi39 min W 9.9 G 13 85°F 1013.6 hPa (+1.1)
SBPT2 - 8770570 - Sabine Pass North, TX 40 mi45 min W 7 G 13 84°F 91°F1014.9 hPa
TXPT2 40 mi39 min WNW 12 G 15 83°F 87°F1012.6 hPa (+1.4)
LUIT2 41 mi39 min SSW 8.9 G 12 85°F 1012.8 hPa (+1.1)
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 41 mi45 min W 7 G 9.9 86°F 89°F1012.1 hPa
PORT2 - 8770475 - Port Arthur, TX 42 mi45 min WNW 8.9 G 14 84°F 87°F1013.5 hPa
KVBS 49 mi19 min SW 20 -40°F

Wind History for Rollover Pass, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX22 mi47 minSW 11 G 1810.00 miA Few Clouds86°F78°F77%1013.2 hPa
High Island 179A (Apache Corp), LA22 mi64 minW 187.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy84°F77°F79%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from GLS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW9S9S9S12S13S12S14S11S13S12S9SW10SW8SW9SW9SW9SW10SW10SW6W6SW6W6SW12
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2 days agoSW5S11S13S12S14S14S14SW14S12S14S11S11S7S9SW9SW8SW8SW9SW8SW7SW7W4SW7W8
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Rollover Pass, Texas
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Rollover Pass
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:12 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:32 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:32 AM CDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:07 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:39 PM CDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.20.40.60.911.21.31.31.31.31.21.11.11.110.90.80.60.40.30.1-0-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Galveston Bay Entrance, Texas Current
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Galveston Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:13 AM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 03:14 AM CDT     1.89 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:33 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:31 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:23 AM CDT     -0.32 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 12:21 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:57 PM CDT     0.06 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:31 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:07 PM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:53 PM CDT     -2.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.51.31.81.91.81.61.10.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.3-0.10.1-0.1-0.6-1.1-1.6-2.1-2.6-2.7-2.5-2-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.