Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Micanopy, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 8:21PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 8:34 PM EDT (00:34 UTC) Moonrise 1:52PMMoonset 1:59AM Illumination 67% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ850 Coastal Waters From Tarpon Springs To Suwannee River Fl Out 20 Nm- 332 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Tonight..Northwest winds around 10 knots then becoming northeast around 5 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop.
Thursday..East winds around 5 knots then becoming west in the afternoon. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth.
Thursday night..Northwest winds around 5 knots then becoming east after midnight. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters smooth. Isolated showers.
Friday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 feet or less. Bay and inland waters a light chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to around 15 knots after midnight. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Scattered showers.
Sunday..South winds around 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Bay and inland waters choppy. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Scattered showers.
Monday..South winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Bay and inland waters a moderate chop. Numerous showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
GMZ800 Synopsis For The Coastal Waters From Bonita Beach To Suwannee River- 332 Pm Edt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis..Atlantic high pressure...well east of bermuda...resides along latitude 30 north and reaches the central gulf coast through the end of the week. Winds and seas remain benign...except higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. A trough of low pressure currently along the east side of the yucatan peninsula lifts northward into the gulf of mexico during the weekend with increasing winds and seas. All mariners should continue to Monitor the progress of this system in the coming days.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Micanopy, FL
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location: 29.53, -82.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 231918
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
318 pm edt Wed may 23 2018

Near term (rest of today-Thursday)
Weak forcing so far with only shallow scattered showers and a few
storms over mainly north zones shifting northeast slowly. Outflow
from convection to our northwest may force convection in the next
few hours over northwest zones. So anticipate increasing coverage
and intensity of showers and storms through rest of aftn and the
evening with main focus over southeast ga. Isolated strong storm
possible due to some dry air aloft enhancing downburst potential
later this aftn early evening. A vort lobe over central ga will be
the driver of scattered to possibly numerous showers and more
isolated convection over northeast fl. Cam models don't seem as
impressive carrying convection overnight but plan to carry
convection through about 07z 08z (3-4am). Heavy rainfall is the
main hazard along with lightning and gusty winds. Have maintained
some low pops still after 3-4am across jeff davis...

atkinson... Appling counties close to the vort lobe. Lows dip into
the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight. For Thursday... Models show mid
level low pressure vort lobe sinking southward slowly with
abundant moisture over southeast ga with pwats around 2 inches.

Enhanced rain chances are forecast for this area with categorical
pops around 70-80 percent inland southeast ga with lowering pops
further south and east as sea breezes forcing most convective
inland. Highs should be able to manage mid to upper 80s again.

Short term Fri & sat...

fri & Fri night... Morning rainfall expected across SE ga under a
meandering mid level vorticity lobe while a broad surface
inverted trough axis rotates up the fl peninsula and drifts inland
along the local coast, which will also bring a good chance of
morning convection to coastal areas. As the surface trough drifts
inland with the east coast sea breeze into Fri afternoon and the
mid level low begins lift northward, mainly diurnally driven
precipitation will focus inland Friday afternoon, generally west
of highway 301 and north of the i-10 corridor into Fri evening.

Locally heavy rainfall will continue to be the main convective
hazard due to a very moist airmass with pwats 1.8-2" and a light
southerly steering flow at 10 kts or less. Could also have some
wet downburst winds due to heavy precip loading, but generally
expect sub-severe storms due to fairly warm mid level
temperatures. Convection will fade inland Friday evening with loss
of diurnal instability, then another weak trough axis begins to
edge northward up the central fl coast which could bring a few
coastal to mainly the st. Johns and flagler counties by sunrise
sat.

Sat & Sat night... Rain chances increase from south to north by
Saturday afternoon, with a mostly dry morning expected for the
local area except for mainly a coastal shower under sse low level
flow. Band of deep tropical moisture with pwats over 2" is
expected to sweep over the entire forecast area Sat afternoon
through Sat night as low pressure drifts northward across the
central or the eastern gulf of mexico, with the local forecast
area on the wet, east side of the system. If the low center tracks
farther east across the eastern gulf, like what the latest 12z
gfs advertised, higher rain chances and precipitation totals are
expected locally, while if the center tracks farther west, expect
a drier forecast with the better rain chances focused across the
western counties as the ECMWF continued to suggest. Still too much
model discrepancy to pin-down where greatest rainfall and
potential flood threats will coincide with this system, but at
this time it certainly looks like above normal rainfall chances
with waves of rainfall and embedded tstorms Sat afternoon through
sat night as moisture overspreads and lingers over the local area.

Again, main convective hazard will be potentially flooding
rainfall. There could also be gusty wind potential depending on
the surface lows track, intensity and structure, with the stronger
winds near the coast and in stronger tstorms.

Maximum temperatures will trend below normal Fri & Sat with values in
the low mid 80s due to increasing cloud cover and precip
potential. High temperatures will trend above normal with values
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Long term Sun through wed...

forecast is highly dependent on the evolution and track of the
gulf low, with the national hurricane center now advertising a
60% chance of it developing into a tropical system during the day
3-5 time frame. Favored the weather prediction center (wpc) and
national hurricane guidance (nhc) collaborative guidance track
which trended more toward the ECMWF tracking the low center toward
the central or east central gulf coast, with the latest gfs
operational run on the relatively far eastern periphery of the
guidance spread. This pattern would support the potential for
widespread stratiform rainfall lifting over the forecast area
early Sunday, with some clearing midday, then a resurgence of
showers and tstorms in the afternoon across a moisture rich
environment along the sea breezes under stronger southerly
steering flow. Flooding rainfall and strong winds in storms would
be possible. Mon-wed, stacked low pressure is progged to meander
across the gulf coast region where flooding rainfall will likely
occur as moisture streams northward on the east side of the slowly
moving low, while locally, expect more of diurnally driven
convection, but with decent coverage of showers and storms given
high moisture content lingering over the area, especially for se
ga and the suwannee river valley of NE fl where deeper moisture
and sea breeze forcing will coincide.

High temperatures will trend near to below climo Sun due to cloud cover
and rainfall with highs in the low mid 80s. Warming trend
expected mon-wed with general ssw mean layer flow over the area
between stacked low pressure meandering west of the region and the
bermuda ridge east of the area, with highs reaching the mid upper
80s. Low temperatures will trend near to above normal values in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Aviation
Vfr prevail with area CIGS near 050 or above. As anticipated
convection... So far it not at the terminals but increased chances
for ssi and possibly jax later this aftn. May see some convection
drift in from the west or develop overhead for all terminals
except sgj in the late aftn evening. Another round of scattered
to numerous showers and storms on Thursday is expected.

Marine
Atlantic high pressure will remain mostly stationary through the
end of the week across the northeast florida waters. Wind speeds
and seas will remain below caution levels on all waters through
Thursday night. A broad low pressure center will take shape over
the southern gulf of mexico by Friday and Saturday and move
slowly northward through the rest of the weekend. Our local
pressure gradient will gradually tighten as this broad low moves
into the central gulf of mexico, resulting in southeasterly winds
increasing Friday afternoon through Saturday and continue to be
breezy into Sunday. Waves of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms
will begin to overspread our local waters on Friday afternoon.

Rip currents: enhanced rip current risk to continue today and
gradually increasing the rest of the week with high risk possible
Friday through the weekend as southeast winds stay breezy kicking
up local surf conditions.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 69 84 68 83 50 80 50 60
ssi 72 81 72 80 10 30 20 30
jax 69 86 69 85 20 60 20 40
sgj 71 83 70 82 0 10 20 30
gnv 68 87 69 83 30 70 30 60
ocf 69 88 69 85 30 50 30 60

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Shashy enyedi mcginnis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
RCYF1 44 mi46 min 83°F
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 47 mi34 min WNW 7 G 9.9 80°F 1018 hPa (-0.0)69°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 57 mi109 min SE 8 80°F 1020 hPa73°F
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 59 mi34 min SSE 16 G 17 78°F 81°F1018.6 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gainesville Regional Airport, FL10 mi41 minSW 310.00 miOvercast84°F66°F57%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from GNV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5S5S5S4SW4SE4NE4SE5CalmS7S6SW3
1 day agoE3E5SE5E4CalmCalmNE3E3CalmE3E4E5SE5SE8SE9SE10S6SE8S5E11SW7N3CalmS14
G22
2 days agoNE5NE5E5E6E6E5E6E5E3SE3SE3S5CalmE4E4N3E4E11E13E7E6E4E6E5

Tide / Current Tables for Buffalo Bluff, St. Johns River, Florida
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Buffalo Bluff
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Wed -- 02:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 06:11 AM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:44 AM EDT     0.48 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:51 PM EDT     -0.68 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.2-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.20.20.40.40.50.30-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.10.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Welaka, St. Johns River, Florida
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Welaka
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:56 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 04:08 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:16 AM EDT     0.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:22 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:11 AM EDT     0.42 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:49 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:40 PM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:34 PM EDT     0.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:47 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:48 PM EDT     0.41 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.30.20.10.10.100.10.20.40.40.40.40.30.20.10.10.1000.10.30.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.