Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bacliff, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:25PM Sunday June 25, 2017 3:54 AM CDT (08:54 UTC) Moonrise 7:04AMMoonset 9:02PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 1018 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 24 2017
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming around 10 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming smooth to slightly choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1018 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 24 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Some scattered showers and Thunderstorms are possible across the waters through the next several days. Onshore winds will ramp up around mid week as we become sandwiched between surface high pressure over the southeastern us and a developing surface cyclone over the lee of the rockies.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bacliff, TX
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location: 29.53, -94.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 250450
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1150 pm cdt Sat jun 24 2017

Aviation 06z taf
yet another challenging TAF given ongoing convective trends. It
looks like the hrrr has been on track with convection along the
stalled front basically north of kcll kuts. Outflow from the day
time storms has pushed back inland from the gulf allowing for more
showers to form north of klbx to kgls. GOES 16 3.9-10.3
difference channel shows some low clouds and not a lot of high
clouds. Still a chance of some patchy fog with wet grounds and
calm winds for the morning but this may be limited due to
convection. Tafs will have vcsh for kgls klbx ksgr khou through
the morning hours and will keep mention of lower visibility. Given
convective trends, lower visibility may not develop if there is
not enough radiational cooling.

Cams still showing the possibility of storms from 16z to 23z
today so will continue vcts in tafs. The expectation will be for
storms to form along the front which will remain stalled north of
houston and along any remaining outflow boundaries. With
precipitable water values around 2 inches, airmass has been
capable of quick recovery despite being stabilized from previous
convection.

Overpeck

Prev discussion issued 946 pm cdt Sat jun 24 2017
discussion...

the rain activity has tapered off to isolated showers at 9:30 pm
with the most activity located near the front which was draped
across the northern counties of the forecast area. Isolated
showers were also occurring between houston and galveston near the
radar. Another area with scattered showers developing was along an
outflow boundary located along the west of freeport.

Still expect isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
across southeast texas through the remainder of tonight. Numerous
weak boundaries set down by earlier convection, the main outflow
boundary along the coast and the front in the north will all be a
focus for development. Pw S from the 00z soundings ranged from 1.7
inches at crp to 2.0 at lch. This indicated plenty of moisture
will be available. Model soundings show an increase in the pw
field throughout the night. The area will also be under a weak
upper level trough of low pressure.

Tweaked the rain chances downward for the remainder of this
evening. Kept rain chances as is for the overnight period.

40
prev discussion... Issued 641 pm cdt Sat jun 24 2017
aviation... 00z taf
a rather diffuse frontal boundary seems to be meandering from
near del rio to waco eastward into central la. Basically the
gradient between mid 70 dewpoints to the south and mid 60
dewpoints to the north. Radar shows little if any convection over
the area with a few new showers developing near kpsn along the
front. Overall think that the boundary layer has been worked over
and stabilized by today's convection that re-development of
convection will be a challenge. But then you glance at the latest
hrrr runs and start to think otherwise. Possible that between
02-03z convection could develop along the front with some outflows
from kcll to kcxo. For now there is no mention of convection but
quite possible that amendments will be needed to account for new
storms. Convection should stay north of kiah but any outflows
could re-generate convection give the moist airmass.

Another scenario and is if convection does not develop, skies
could clear out enough that with clam winds and wet grounds, fog
could form over the area. SREF and even the glamp seem to suggest
this possibility so added mention of lower visibility for a couple
of hours.

Tomorrow looks to be possibly a repeat of today with late morning
convection forming and lasting into the afternoon. Tafs were
adjusted an hour or two for convection forming in the late
morning. Any MVFR ifr conditions should improve during this time
as well with day time heating.

Overpeck
prev discussion... Issued 328 pm cdt Sat jun 24 2017
discussion...

onshore winds have slowly become more easterly this afternoon, as a
front pushes in from the north. Still continuing to monitor a
few showers straggling along the coast and also in washington
county. Based on short time guidance, the best chance for possible
showers to develop tonight would be in the northern counties of
the cwa. Although, after the convection we saw earlier today
thinking that conditions have stabilized, which would put a
damper on the chance for wide spread development tonight. If this
pans out, pops will need to be lowered for the overnight period.

Conditions will definitely remain muggy, with forecast soundings
keeping pws between 2.0 to 2.25 inches through Sunday morning, and
by late Sunday lowering to around 1.90 to 2.0 inches. With
convective temperatures remaining in the low to mid 80s over the
weekend and with such a saturated airmass lingering over SE tx,
the ingredients are there for shower and thunderstorm
development.

Tomorrow, precip will most likely develop near leftover boundaries
from today as well as along a weak sea breeze that could push
onshore by late afternoon as we approach MAX temperatures. High
temperatures for Sunday through Tuesday will reach up into the mid
to upper 80s. There are also some higher values of vorticity that
will move across the region in the upper levels, that could help to
provide some lift first on Sunday afternoon and again late Tuesday.

Still low confidence in the timing and location of exactly where
this precip will end up over the next few days as most of the models
lack agreement in the locations of development.

Se tx remains centered between two upper level high pressure systems
through next Friday. Expecting winds to remain out of the east until
Wednesday, and then we will begin to see a return to onshore
flow. Pws will be lower by Wednesday with pops also lowering, as
an area of surface high pressure begins to move in from the east.

Therefore, MAX temperatures will be on the rise by late next week,
reaching into low 90s across much of SE tx.

Hathaway
marine...

a weak outflow boundary may result in a few showers and
thunderstorms across the nearshore waters this afternoon with a
brief period of offshore flow possible in its wake. Otherwise, light
to occasionally moderate east to southeast flow is expected across
the coastal waters through mid-week and this will help keep tide
levels 1-1.5 feet above normal over the next few days. In addition
to elevated tides, east to southeast flow will help promote an
increased risk for rip currents. A beach hazards statement is in
effect through tonight for these strong rip currents and additional
beach hazards statements may be needed at times through early next
week for elevated tides producing wave run up along bolivar
peninsula and increased rip current risk.

Lee troughing over the high plains will result in onshore flow
strengthening to caution or possibly advisory criteria mid to late
next week.

Huffman

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 73 87 72 88 72 50 50 30 40 20
houston (iah) 75 89 73 87 73 40 50 40 50 20
galveston (gls) 79 86 78 85 78 30 40 40 50 40

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Discussion... 40
aviation marine... 39


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 5 mi55 min SSE 8.9 G 11 83°F 84°F1018.6 hPa (-0.7)
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 11 mi55 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 78°F 84°F1018.6 hPa (-0.5)
GRRT2 16 mi55 min SE 5.1 G 8 83°F 86°F1018.5 hPa (-0.7)
LYBT2 17 mi55 min NNE 6 G 7 77°F 84°F1018.9 hPa (-0.4)
GTOT2 18 mi55 min 83°F 85°F
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 18 mi55 min SE 9.9 G 12 84°F1018 hPa (-0.7)
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 20 mi55 min NNW 2.9 G 6 78°F 82°F1018.1 hPa (-0.3)
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 25 mi55 min SSE 8 G 8.9 82°F 83°F1018.5 hPa (-0.8)
LUIT2 32 mi55 min ESE 7 G 9.9 82°F 86°F
HIST2 32 mi55 min ENE 1 G 1.9 78°F 84°F1018.8 hPa (-0.6)
KXIH 34 mi40 min ESE 8.9 82°F 72°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 36 mi65 min E 5.8 G 9.7 81°F 84°F3 ft1018.7 hPa (+0.0)73°F
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 38 mi115 min 7.8 G 12 78°F 83°F1018.5 hPa
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 44 mi55 min ESE 4.1 G 6 83°F 87°F1018.9 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX12 mi3.1 hrsN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F75°F89%1019.6 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX14 mi62 minN 09.00 miFair79°F75°F88%1018.8 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX18 mi62 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F75°F85%1019 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX19 mi63 minSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F78°F88%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE4CalmSE3SE3SE8NW12N8CalmNW5NW7N6N5NW6E4E6NE5CalmNE5CalmCalmCalm--Calm
1 day agoS6S6S6S5S5S13S11S12S10S9
G14
S9SE11SE11S10S10SE8S7--SE5SE4SE4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW10NW10W9W6SW7SW9SW9--SW8SW9SW9W7SW5S11S11S11S10----S7--S6S6S6

Tide / Current Tables for Eagle Point, Texas
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Eagle Point
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:31 AM CDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:04 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:26 AM CDT     1.14 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:01 PM CDT     0.88 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM CDT     0.93 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:23 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:01 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.10.20.50.811.11.11.110.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:06 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:31 AM CDT     2.51 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 08:04 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:58 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:22 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:22 PM CDT     -2.43 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.3-1.9-1.1-0.111.92.42.52.21.71.310.70.3-0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.9-1.4-1.9-2.2-2.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.