Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bacliff, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:46PM Thursday October 19, 2017 4:39 PM CDT (21:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:10AMMoonset 6:04PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 410 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 410 Pm Cdt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate to strong east winds will persist through this evening. Wind are expected to become more southeasterly overnight. This long onshore fetch will continue into the weekend resulting in elevated seas and tides. Chances of showers and Thunderstorms will increase tonight and continue through the weekend. A cold front and associated showers and Thunderstorms will push off the coast on Sunday. Moderate to strong offshore winds can be expected in the wake of the front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bacliff, TX
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location: 29.53, -94.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 192054
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
354 pm cdt Thu oct 19 2017

Discussion
Radar this after showing some light rain W and SW of a bay city to
wharton line this afternoon. This activity lines up well with a
moisture axis coming from the gulf as forecast. Moisture should
increase tonight and especially tomorrow as a warm front moves
north. Overall the short term forecast remains on track with
moisture axis beginning to set up west of i-45 tomorrow morning
where models have been pretty consistent with the onset of
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Instability tomorrow should be strong enough for a few
thunderstorms as a weak vorticity MAX moves over the area tomorrow
morning. Activity will likely persist into the early afternoon but
think activity will begin to decrease in coverage towards the late
afternoon as the weak disturbance moves ne.

Saturday forecast still looks drier compared to rain chances
tomorrow and Sunday. Upper level trough coming into the pacific nw
will move across the rockies Saturday with a vorticity lobe
breaking off from the main flow Saturday night. SW flow aloft will
be in place Saturday but really no good trigger for thunderstorm
activity. This means any activity will be diurnally driven and
initiated from any pre-existing boundaries on the mesoscale.

Forecast keeps 40 pops in place since forcing will be weak.

By Sunday morning the main upper level trough splits with the
northern upper low moving into canada and great lakes. The
southern vorticity lobe begins to pinch off from the main flow and
close off by Sunday night over the ARKLATEX and ozarks. By Monday
the models vary greatly in handling the evolution of this system
as it moves east. The good thing is that until Monday the models
are in good agreement. This means a cold front is on track to push
through early Sunday morning. It is quite possible a line of
storms will accompany the front. There is some question as to
whether severe weather will develop with the line of storms. The
upper trough dynamics and front are a bit out of phase but still
enough forcing to erode any capping. The NAM is a bit concerning
with its lack of QPF along the front compared to the gfs ECMWF but
then again it is the nam. The reason for the nam's lack of precip
seems to be boundary layer winds veering to the SW and W which
pushes all the moisture east ahead of the front. Gfs ECMWF show
similar patterns but are much slower to shift moisture east. These
solutions have been fairly consistent. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches looks reasonable for Friday through Sunday across the
area. Storms should be moving at fast enough rates that flooding
should not be a concern but some of the stronger storms could
produce isolated higher amounts closer to 3 inches. The front
should be through the area 18z Sunday through 00z Monday with
gusty northerly winds behind the front.

High pressure builds over the area Monday into Tuesday with a re-
enforcing shot of colder air behind another front on Tuesday.

Wednesday low temperatures could be in the 40s with high
temperatures in the mid 70s. Cooler and drier conditions should
persist into the end of next week and models show another front
coming down next Friday. This make sense given the upper level
pattern becoming quite amplified with a mean long wave trough over
much of the eastern u.S.

Overpeck

Marine
High pressure over the eastern u. S. And lower pressures over the
southern gulf will help to produce moderate strong easterly winds
across the coastal waters through this evening. The scec has been
extended into the early evening (for the coastal waters). As this
high moves further to the N ne, the low-level flow is expected to
become more southeasterly overnight through early Fri morning. As
this moderate strong onshore flow persists over the weekend, deep-
er moisture over the gulf will help to produce some isolated scat-
tered showers mainly during this period. The next cold front will
also produce some additional activity Sunday. A strong gusty N nw
flow in the immediate wake of the front should prompt caution and
advisory flags for Sun night Mon morning. This offshore flow will
likely persist through the first half of next week. 41

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 65 81 68 86 69 20 60 30 40 50
houston (iah) 68 80 72 85 72 20 60 30 40 40
galveston (gls) 75 81 76 84 77 20 60 30 40 30

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 7 pm cdt this evening
for the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to
the matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from
high island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to
the matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from
high island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 39
aviation marine... 41


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 5 mi51 min E 12 G 14 75°F 75°F1018.9 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 11 mi51 min SE 8 G 13 77°F 77°F1018.8 hPa
GRRT2 16 mi51 min NNW 16 G 20 75°F 75°F1018.7 hPa
GTOT2 18 mi51 min 76°F 77°F
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 18 mi57 min ENE 17 G 20 77°F1018.2 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 20 mi51 min ENE 1.9 G 8 82°F 80°F1017.7 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 25 mi51 min E 14 G 17 76°F 77°F1018.9 hPa
LUIT2 32 mi51 min ENE 18 G 21 75°F 1018.1 hPa
HIST2 32 mi57 min E 13 G 16 76°F 76°F1019.4 hPa
KXIH 34 mi164 min ESE 21 75°F 64°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 36 mi49 min ENE 16 G 19 75°F 80°F4 ft1018.3 hPa (-1.5)65°F
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 44 mi51 min NE 14 G 19 78°F 77°F1018.4 hPa

Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX12 mi49 minE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F66°F65%1019.3 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX14 mi46 minE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F63°F54%1018.7 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX18 mi46 minE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F64°F57%1018.9 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX19 mi47 minENE 1410.00 miFair79°F63°F58%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3--E5E4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5--NE6NE5E10E8--E10SE8E7
1 day agoN6NE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE5--S3SE4SE3--E8
2 days agoN10NW10N7N5N9N7NE7NE5NE4NE6NE5NE4NE7NE3NE4N5--NE7NE9NE7N8NW8NE8
G13
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Tide / Current Tables for Eagle Point, Texas
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Eagle Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:45 AM CDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:01 AM CDT     1.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 02:48 PM CDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:04 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:20 PM CDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.70.70.70.70.80.911.11.110.80.60.50.40.40.50.60.811.11.21.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:23 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:28 AM CDT     0.65 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:38 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:56 AM CDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 02:31 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:25 PM CDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:03 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:21 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.6-0.20.30.60.60.3-0.2-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.40.411.31.310.50.1-0.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.