Wednesday, April26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bacliff, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 7:55PM Wednesday April 26, 2017 7:01 AM CDT (12:01 UTC) Moonrise 6:03AMMoonset 7:20PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 407 Am Cdt Wed Apr 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am cdt this morning...
Today..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers. Isolated Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 407 Am Cdt Wed Apr 26 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Strong onshore winds this morning will diminish this afternoon as a cold front approaches the coast. Winds will become north in the wake of the front this evening and increase overnight before diminishing Thursday morning. Onshore winds will return Thursday afternoon as high pressure drifts east of the region. Strong onshore winds are expected Friday night and Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bacliff, TX
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location: 29.53, -94.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 261050
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston/galveston tx
550 am cdt Wed apr 26 2017

Aviation
A cold front over N tx will move SE today amd move across the
region this afternoon. The front should move through the kcll area
between 18-20z and the houston TAF sites around 21z and the
coastal TAF sites around 00z. SE tx remains strongly capped and
not sure the front will be strong enough to break the cap. Will
maintain the vcts for kuts this afternoon and was tempted to toss
in a vcts for kcxo and a vcsh for kiah based on the latest rap
and 06z GFS guidance. Just think the capping is too strong to
overcome for precip this far south. Winds will remain an issue
today into this evening but speeds are expected to drop off after
03z. Clear skies will develop in the wake of the front and persist
through 18z Thursday. 43

Prev discussion /issued 403 am cdt Wed apr 26 2017/
discussion...

regional radar mosaic early this morning shows dry conditions in
place across southeast texas, with a few light showers occurring
across west and northwest texas in the vicinity of a southeastward
moving cold front. 05z/12 am cdt surface analysis showed this
cold front stretching from near jal, nm east towards wichita falls
and northeast towards tulsa, ok, with an attendant
dryline/surface trough located roughly from throckmorton to
dryden. As a shortwave trough swings across oklahoma towards the
great lakes today and tonight, it will send this frontal system
into southeast texas.

Veering surface winds ahead of the front (southerly 10-15 mph
this morning becoming southwest late morning/early afternoon) will
promote continued warm air advection ahead of the front as well
as encourage cloud cover to scatter. This will allow high
temperatures in many locations to range from the mid 80s to
possibly even the low 90s. This may be the first 90 degree day for
the houston metro as well as a record high temperature day for
galveston (current record is 84 set in 2011), but these
temperatures are largely contingent on when winds shift and skies
begin to clear. More information about first, average, and last
observed 90 degree days for houston are included in the climate
section below. Current timing for the cold front brings it into
the brazos valley early this afternoon (12-2 pm) and into the
houston metro late afternoon/early evening (4-6 pm) before
clearing the region and the coastal waters later this evening
(8-10 pm).

Evening upper air observations from around texas and louisiana
revealed an elevated mixed layer/cap in place across most of the
region, with 700 mb temperatures ranging from 10-12 degrees c
across most of texas. The evolution of this cap today will play a
crucial role in rain chances for the region as well as the
potential for thunderstorm development this afternoon along the
cold front. For this morning, warm air advection should promote
the development of a few showers beneath the cap across southeast
texas and the adjacent waters. Forecast soundings from lufkin do
show a weakening of the cap later this afternoon (after 21z/4 pm),
likely as a result of some mid-level cooling associated with the
shortwave troughs passage across the southern plains. If the cap
is able to weaken, isolated to possibly scattered thunderstorms
may be able to develop along the cold front with best chances
remaining along and east of a madisonville to huntsville to winnie
line given the anticipated trends with the cap. Environmental
conditions in these areas would support a strong to possibly
severe thunderstorm (if thunderstorms were to develop), with mid-
level lapse rates around 7-8 c/km enhancing updraft intensity
enough to promote large hail or possibly gusty winds. Rain chances
will quickly end from west to east this evening behind the cold
front.

Weak surface high pressure is expected to build into the region
behind the front tonight, with clear skies and cold air advection
allowing overnight low temperatures ranging from the upper 40s
across the piney woods to mid 50s around the houston metro and low
60s along the coast. Quasizonal flow aloft as texas sits at the
base of a broad longwave trough and moisture briefly being pushed
offshore behind today's front will promote dry conditions across
the region on Thursday. After a cool start Thursday morning,
temperatures will rebound into the upper 70s to mid 80s with
onshore flow resuming in the afternoon as the surface high slides
east.

The upper pattern transitions to more of a southwest flow aloft on
Friday as energy from the northern pacific enters the base of the
upper longwave trough. In response to the approach of this
feature, surface troughing over the southern plains will deepen
and increase southerly flow across the region on Friday with
breezy to windy conditions expected across the region. This
increasing southerly flow will also give the region another shot
at 90 degree temperatures, so even if 90 is not reached today...

parts of the region will have another chance on Friday.

Breezy to windy conditions will persist again on Saturday as the
upper disturbance becomes a closed low near the four corners,
resulting in additional deepening of the surface low/trough across
the southern plains. While Saturday will not be a washout, warm
air advection will promote a few showers Saturday morning with
possibly a few thunderstorms by the afternoon with diurnal
heating. As the closed low near the four corners is expected to
lift across the southern plains, it will send a cold front into
southeast texas late Saturday night into Sunday morning with
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along
the front. Veering wind profiles ahead of the front may provide
enough shear for storm organization, with a strengthening low
level jet encouraging precipitable water values to possibly rise
above 1.8 inches. This shear and moisture, combined with
sufficient instability and lift from the upper level system, may
also result in strong to severe thunderstorms developing during
this time.

Expect the cold front and any associated storms to clear the
region Sunday afternoon with dry conditions expected Monday and
Tuesday in the wake of the front. The next upper level system may
approach the region by the middle of next week, bringing another
round of rain. However, poor agreement amongst medium range
guidance precludes speculation on when this rain will return for
now.

Huffman
marine...

moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds will persist this
morning and will maintain the SCA for all waters through 15z. Tide
levels continue to increase and may briefly reach 3 feet around
high tide (5 am). There may be some minor coastal flooding along
the bolivar but impacts should be short lived and minimal. The
winds will briefly decrease this afternoon as a cold front nears
the coast. The front should cross the coastal waters this evening.

Scec/sca conds possible in the wake of the front.

Onshore winds resume on Thursday as high pressure moves off to
the east. Winds/seas increase to near advisory criteria Friday
evening and will persist into early Sunday. Will need to keep an
eye on elevated water levels and risk of rip currents going into
the weekend. Tide levels could potentially exceed 3.5 feet near
high tide early Saturday morning. Another cold front will cross
the coastal waters early Sunday morning with strong offshore winds
developing in the wake of the front on Sunday. 43
climate...

below are the earliest, average, and latest observations for the
first 90 degree days for the city of houston.

Houston date (year)
earliest first february 20 (1986)
average first may 7
latest first june 15 (1897)
huffman

Preliminary point temps/pops
College station (cll) 86 51 84 67 90 / 20 0 0 10 10
houston (iah) 89 56 84 69 90 / 20 10 0 10 10
galveston (gls) 84 64 78 74 82 / 10 10 0 10 10

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 10 am cdt this morning for the
following zones: coastal waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high
island to freeport out 20 nm... Galveston bay... Matagorda
bay... Waters from freeport to the matagorda ship channel
from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high island to freeport from
20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 14
aviation/marine... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 5 mi43 min S 17 G 19 76°F 74°F999.7 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 11 mi43 min S 14 G 19 76°F 75°F999.7 hPa
GRRT2 16 mi43 min S 14 G 19 75°F 75°F999.9 hPa
LYBT2 17 mi43 min S 14 G 23 76°F 75°F999 hPa
GTOT2 18 mi43 min 76°F 75°F
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 18 mi49 min SSE 19 G 22 75°F1000.1 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 20 mi43 min S 7 G 12 76°F 76°F999.8 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 25 mi43 min S 11 G 15 76°F 74°F1000.7 hPa
HIST2 32 mi49 min S 8 G 12 75°F 75°F1001.2 hPa
LUIT2 32 mi43 min SSE 11 G 15 76°F
KXIH 34 mi26 min SSW 19 G 27 77°F 72°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 36 mi71 min S 18 G 21 76°F 75°F6 ft1000.2 hPa (-1.0)73°F
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 44 mi43 min SSE 11 G 15 76°F 75°F1000.1 hPa

Wind History for Eagle Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX12 mi71 minSSE 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast77°F71°F83%999.7 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX14 mi68 minS 12 G 188.00 miOvercast78°F70°F76%1000 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX18 mi68 minSSE 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast76°F70°F82%999.7 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX19 mi69 minSSE 15 G 2210.00 miOvercast78°F73°F85%1000.6 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE4S10S14
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1 day ago--CalmCalmCalmCalmS4W5SE5--SE5E9S11S9S10S6S5S3S3S4S3SE3SE3SE3SE3
2 days agoN12N14
G20
NW16N14
G22
N12N11NW6N8N8N10NW10
G17
NW10N10N8N5N5Calm----S4----CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Eagle Point, Texas
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Eagle Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:23 AM CDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:18 AM CDT     New Moon
Wed -- 09:20 AM CDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:17 PM CDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:59 PM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:19 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.20.10.10.20.40.60.91.11.21.11.10.90.80.70.70.70.70.80.90.90.90.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:56 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:08 AM CDT     2.08 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:41 AM CDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:02 AM CDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:18 AM CDT     New Moon
Wed -- 09:04 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 12:29 PM CDT     -0.91 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:50 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:56 PM CDT     0.22 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 06:01 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:52 PM CDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:18 PM CDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:40 PM CDT     -1.90 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.3-0.70.111.72.11.91.40.70-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7-0.30.10.20-0.5-1.1-1.6-1.8-1.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.