Sunday, June24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lafitte, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:06PM Sunday June 24, 2018 12:29 AM CDT (05:29 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 2:35AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ538 Chandeleur Sound-breton Sound- 943 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 23 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Northwest winds near 5 knots becoming northeast late in the morning, then becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 943 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure will prevail across the coastal waters through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lafitte, LA
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location: 29.54, -90.06     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 240154
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
854 pm cdt Sat jun 23 2018

Sounding discussion
This evening's balloon launch was successful with no issues
encountered. Interesting features on this sounding profile
includes a rather dry moisture profile aloft, with pw of 1.37
inches ranging below-normal for this time of the year according
to sounding climatology. The boundary layer thermal and moisture
profile was well-mixed this afternoon, with a prominent subsidence
inversion between 800 and 850mb which helped suppress area-wide
convective thunderstorm development today. Otherwise, the vertical
wind profile was relatively calm for the most part up to 400mb,
before winds picked up at around 25-35kts from the SW to the
tropopause. Sharp moisture increase right at 300mb looks like the
radiosonde traveled through some patchy high-level cirrus down
wind of the station. Klg

Prev discussion issued 325 pm cdt Sat jun 23 2018

Short term (tonight through Tuesday night)
A deep layer ridge, extending from near florida across the gulf
of mexico and north gulf coast today, will gradually become
centered a bit north Sunday into Tuesday with the mid to upper
level high center expected to be over the interior southeast
states lower mississippi valley region Monday and Tuesday. This
will deflect systems in the westerlies well north of the forecast
area, and any wave features or deeper moisture in the tropical
easterlies should remain well to the south. The only source of any
showers and thunderstorms in this pattern is the strong diurnal
heating combined with available moisture and low level convergence
boundaries. This was largely absent today except for a couple
brief light showers here and there due the capping effects of a
warm nose in the 850-750 mb layer that was observed on the 12z
lix sounding. The westerly winds in this capping layer should back
to southerly then easterly over the next couple days, so that
should allow for a bit more coverage of showers and some
thunderstorms over the next few days, although am only expecting
pops of 10-20% on Sunday and 15-25% on Monday and Tuesday.

Daytime highs may start to nudge up from the lower 90s to some mid
90s in warmer inland locations, but the lows should be able to
lower from the last couple very warm nights due to the lighter
winds that are expected. The combination of heat and humidity will
continue to push heat index values up into the 100 to 106 degree
range each afternoon which would remain below heat advisory
criteria.

Long term (Wednesday through Saturday night)
Little change in the overall pattern is forecast going through
Thursday with deep layer high pressure in place, except the
typical seabreeze and lake breeze regime may be sufficient for
slightly higher rain chances (20 to 30%). Still expect hot high
temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.

Heading through the latter part of the week, the deep layer high
is expected to push very slowly west across the lower mississippi
valley while a broad mid upper low moves west over the eastern
gulf coast florida panhandle. This should bring some higher
precipitable water nearing 2 inches over eastern portions of the
forecast area on Saturday. Rain chances should start to go up
over the mississippi gulf coast during the Friday to Saturday
periods while other locations to the west continue to experience
only isolated to low scattered coverage of showers and storms.

Expect temperatures to continue near to slightly higher than the
seasonal normals which will mean heat indices approaching 105
degrees or slightly higher on some afternoons. 22 td
aviation...

vfr conditions are expected through 09z Sunday across the
terminals. Cannot rule out a few hours of MVFR ceilings again
around around 12z Sunday. These conditions would improve by 15 or
16z Sunday. 18

Marine
Cannot rule out a few observations possibly reaching exercise
caution criteria this evening, but think most sustained winds should
remain below 15 knots. Beyond tonight, expect relatively quiet
conditions on the waters with flow generally becoming diurnally
driven. 35

Decision support
Dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 74 92 74 92 10 10 10 10
btr 76 92 75 94 10 20 10 20
asd 78 93 76 93 10 10 10 10
msy 78 93 78 93 10 10 10 20
gpt 80 92 78 92 10 10 10 10
pql 77 94 75 93 10 20 10 10

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 20 mi41 min S 6 G 9.9 84°F 86°F1015 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 26 mi41 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1
CARL1 27 mi41 min 85°F
KXPY 30 mi34 min S 9.9 84°F 79°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 31 mi41 min S 6 G 7 81°F 89°F1014.9 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 34 mi41 min SSW 6 G 7
KDLP 40 mi34 min S 15 86°F 81°F
FREL1 44 mi41 min S 5.1 G 6
LOPL1 - Louisiana Offshore Oil Port, LA 45 mi66 min 13 G 18 83°F 2 ft1015.1 hPa
PILL1 49 mi41 min SSW 11 G 13 83°F 84°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Grand Isle, LA
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Last
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SW6
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Galliano, South Lafourche Airport, LA13 mi34 minSSE 610.00 miFair81°F74°F82%1014.6 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi34 minS 810.00 miA Few Clouds81°F79°F94%1014.4 hPa

Wind History from GAO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SW9SW9
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1 day agoSW5SW7SW7SW6SW7SW4SW4SW9SW10SW13SW11SW12SW11
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2 days agoS5S4S3S4CalmCalmS4SW6SW9SW8SW10SW11
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SW12SW12SW13SW7S8SW7S6SW4SW3SW3SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Manilla, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Manilla
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:34 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:03 AM CDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:37 PM CDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.911.1110.90.80.70.50.40.30.20.10-0-0

Tide / Current Tables for Independence Island, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Independence Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:34 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:00 AM CDT     0.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:02 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:23 PM CDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.90.910.90.90.80.70.50.40.30.20.10-000

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.