Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Sulphur, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:04PM Saturday December 16, 2017 12:52 PM CST (18:52 UTC) Moonrise 6:12AMMoonset 5:12PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ538 Chandeleur Sound-breton Sound- 934 Am Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the late evening and early morning. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers early in the morning. Showers in the late morning and afternoon. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of Thunderstorms until early morning. Chance of showers through the night.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms until late afternoon. Chance of showers through the day.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 934 Am Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis..A frontal boundary will begin drifting north as an area of low pressure forms in the west gulf today. A front will then stall over the gulf states Sunday and Monday before pushing east Tuesday. Cold high pressure will then build into the north gulf Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Sulphur, LA
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location: 29.6, -89.62     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 161805
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1205 pm cst Sat dec 16 2017

Update
Updated mainly for 18z TAF issuance. Cloud cover and temperature
trends have been difficult to capture in the near term for the
hourly forecasts, but overall forecast trends through the day and
the forecast highs appear to be on track.

Aviation
Increasing low level moisture from the gulf of mexico has already
brought some borderline MVFRVFR category CIGS from near 2500 to
around 3000 feet around khum and adjacent southeast louisiana
coastal area, and some of that has started to spread into the
metro new orleans airports at midday. Have indicated a
continuation of temporary occurrence of these conditions for the
first couple hours of the 18z TAF period, then have some
improvement before conditions become more widespread MVFR this
evening across most if not all TAF airports. Isolated to scattered
shra will have mostly brief impacts as they develop move into the
region this evening to around midnight, then more widespread
impacts from shra and lifr to ifr conditions are forecast to
develop and spread across the region late tonight into Sunday
morning.

Strong southerly winds just above the surface may result in a
2-4 hour period of low level wind shear in a corridor mainly from
near kbtr-khdc-kmcb late tonight into early Sunday morning. Have
not included mention in the tafs at this time, but may need to
consider mention with later issuances.

22 td

Prev discussion issued 420 am cst Sat dec 16 2017
discussion...

the last bit of calm weather will take place today before a much
more active period starts late tonight and will last for the next
several days. High pressure will slide to the east today and allow
for return flow from the gulf. This will set the stage for a
prolonged rainy period in the forecast. An upper level low will
eject out of northern mexico and at the surface a low will develop
over the western gulf of mexico. This rapidly deepening low will
bring another cold front into the region and stall it over the
area for a few days. This will be the focus of shower and
thunderstorm development through early next week. This system will
also pull rich moisture into the forecast area Sunday and that
moisture will remain in place through midweek.

Precipitable water values for Sunday look to be well over 1.8
inches if the guidance is correct. This will put record amounts of
moisture in the forecast as the daily recorded MAX for Sunday 12z
soundings at kasd is 1.64, and the recorded MAX for Sunday
evening 0z soundings is 1.72. So we will be flirting with some
deep moisture over the region on Sunday into Monday. The weather
prediction center has the entire area outlooked in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday. Some flooding is possible
on Sunday. There is a shot that we could be outlooked again for
excessive rainfall again on Monday... As of now we are not but some
of the signals point to more heavy rainfall going into Monday as
well. We are expecting rainfall totals in the 2 to 4 inch range
for much of the area. Higher totals will certainly be possible if
any specific areas see multiple rounds of heavier storms. Some
localized ponding of water in low lying and poor drainage areas is
possible. Will have to monitor the flooding situation carefully
as this evolves into a multi-day type event with moisture rich
environment and a stalled front over the forecast area through at
least Tuesday.

One more note for this system as well... The storm prediction
center has placed the area in a marginal risk for severe weather
on Sunday and Monday. Looking at the soundings the instability is
marginal but is sufficient enough to maintain some stronger
convection. There will be enough shear in the atmosphere also to
support convection. Main inhibiting factor will be whether the
convection is surface-based or not. Damaging wind appears to be the greatest
threat from any severe storms, but the higher shear means we can't
ignore the possibility of a tornado or two. Remember this is
winter and you do not need overly robust instability in the
atmosphere to cause a little bit of trouble. We will be watching
this close as well.

Guidance is in better agreement going into midweek. Another upper
low will eject out over the southern plains and another surface
low moves across the area. This will bring another round of
showers and thunderstorms to the region Wednesday morning. We
should be between systems Thursday... And guidance then also points
to another major system into the region next weekend. With that
being said have maintained a blend in the latter part of the
forecast period. 13 mh
aviation...

vfr category conditions will prevail at the terminals
through the day Saturday with mid and high levels clouds prevailing.

Ceilings will lower Saturday evening and night with MVFR conditions
expected to develop. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible
by late Saturday night... Primarily for the western p CWA taf
locations. 11
marine...

high pressure over the region will continue to slide east
today while cyclogenesis will begin over the southwestern gulf. This
will send a warm front back across the region tonight. With that
winds will veer around today to easterly and then
southeasterly onshore early Sunday after the front moves to the
north. The pressure gradient will also tighten across the region
with moderate to strong winds expected overnight tonight and more so
tomorrow. As the sfc low pulls away Monday the front will basically
stall over the region leading to lighter winds through Tuesday. A
lot of questions then arise for the remainder of the week. Another
sfc low is expected to traverse the lower ms valley which will bring
another weak cold front into and likely stalling over the region. By
the end of the week we should see a much stronger cold front with
strong offshore winds developing behind it. Cab
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: none.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 55 47 69 60 10 80 90 60
btr 57 50 71 61 10 80 90 50
asd 57 50 73 61 10 60 80 50
msy 57 53 73 63 10 60 80 50
gpt 56 50 70 62 10 50 80 60
pql 56 48 73 61 0 50 80 60

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 19 mi53 min ENE 13 G 15 49°F 54°F1024.1 hPa (-1.7)
GISL1 - 8761724 - Grand Isle, LA 29 mi53 min ENE 13 G 18 53°F 56°F1023.1 hPa (-1.8)
KDLP 33 mi38 min ENE 14 G 19 61°F 54°F
PILL1 35 mi53 min ENE 8.9 G 13 60°F 52°F1022.9 hPa (-1.5)
CARL1 36 mi53 min 51°F
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 39 mi53 min NE 11 G 12 50°F 53°F1023.9 hPa (-1.6)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi53 min NE 2.9 G 8 53°F 51°F1024 hPa (-1.8)
KXPY 45 mi38 min NE 11 G 16 54°F 48°F
KMIS 46 mi38 min E 13 G 19 64°F 55°F
PSTL1 - 8760922 - Pilot's East, SW Pass, LA 48 mi53 min NE 17 G 18 63°F 55°F1023.1 hPa (-1.6)
BURL1 - Southwest Pass, LA 49 mi53 min NE 14 G 15 60°F 1022.6 hPa (-1.6)56°F

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boothville, LA22 mi2 hrsNE 87.00 miOvercast55°F48°F80%1024.5 hPa

Wind History from BVE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7
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1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4S3S3CalmCalm3N5N4N4N5N7N9
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2 days agoW8SW9SW8W5W4W4SW4W4W6W5SW4W4CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bay Gardene, Louisiana
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Bay Gardene
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:12 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:18 AM CST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:01 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:06 PM CST     1.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.10.90.70.50.20-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.10.30.40.60.80.91.11.21.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Gardner Island, Breton Sound, Louisiana
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Gardner Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:11 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:07 AM CST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:11 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:17 PM CST     1.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.80.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.1-00.10.30.50.60.811.21.31.41.41.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.