Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seabrook, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:56PM Thursday April 27, 2017 11:50 AM CDT (16:50 UTC) Moonrise 6:50AMMoonset 8:27PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 1031 Am Cdt Thu Apr 27 2017
This afternoon..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast late. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east after midnight. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Sunday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Sunday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight.
Monday..Southwest winds around 5 knots becoming south in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1031 Am Cdt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Offshore winds will continue to weaken this afternoon as high pressure drifts east of the region. Onshore winds return tonight and will strengthen through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook, TX
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location: 29.61, -94.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 271501
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston/galveston tx
1001 am cdt Thu apr 27 2017

Discussion
Surface analysis and visible satellite imagery show cold front in
the gulf of mexico from the mississippi river delta to south of
brownsville tx. Overall the forecast looks on track and only
updated t/td for ongoing trends which were minor adjustments. For
the afternoon update may have to look at adding fog as moisture
returns tonight with the front in the gulf returning as a warm
front. We are still looking at the possibility of strong/severe
storms and locally heavy rainfall Saturday night. There should be
some minor changes in the forecast for that time frame especially
with timing. Cold front looks to out run upper level support so
looking at large scale lift out of phase with surface forcing.

Usually means a nocturnal squall line that fights capping and the
lack of instability.

Overpeck

Prev discussion /issued 610 am cdt Thu apr 27 2017/
aviation...

vfr conditions expected today as high pressure drifts across se
tx. Winds will veer to the SE this afternoon and gradually
increase in speed. MVFR CIGS expected to develop tonight between
04-07z as low level moisture surges back beneath a strengthening
capping inversion. 43
prev discussion... /issued 351 am cdt Thu apr 27 2017/
discussion...

dry conditions are expected across the region today in the wake of
yesterday's cold front, which has pushed off the upper texas coast
and stretches across the northwest gulf from harlingen to new
orleans early this morning. After a cool start inland with
morning temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s, surface high
pressure sliding east of the region and onshore flow resuming will
allow afternoon temperatures to rebound into the upper 70s to mid
80s. This southerly flow will promote moisture return tonight,
resulting in increasing cloud cover and overnight lows about 10-15
degrees warmer than this morning in the low 60s to low 70s.

Southerly flow will strengthen during the day Friday to 10-15 mph
as height falls in advance of an upper disturbance near the four
corners results in the development of a surface low over west
texas. This flow combined with insolation will result in another
day where 90+ degree temperatures are within reach, with a few
records possibly approached along the coast. Forecast soundings
show the atmosphere remaining capped during the day Friday and
expect dry weather to continue as a result, but with moisture
being trapped under this inversion cloud cover may prevent a few
locations from getting as warm as currently forecast. Persistent
warm air advection and associated moisture return will allow for
isolated showers to develop inland late Friday night/early
Saturday morning, with overnight lows only falling into the mid to
upper 70s. This may tie or break record high minimums at several
locations across southeast texas.

As the upper low near the four corners reaches the southern plains
on Saturday and sends a stationary front over oklahoma south as a
cold front, southerly winds will increase further as the pressure
gradient tightens. Winds along the coast on Saturday may
strengthen enough to warrant a wind advisory. Isolated to
scattered showers will remain possible across the inland areas
throughout the morning Saturday, with a weakening cap during the
afternoon hours even allowing for the development of a few
thunderstorms. Persistent cloud cover will not offer much of a
diurnal range, with highs in the low to mid 80s.

Model guidance has been fairly consistent with the timing of the
cold front this weekend, bringing it into the brazos valley
Saturday night, sweeping it across most of southeast texas through
the early morning hours, and clearing the region mid to late
morning Sunday. As mid-level flow becomes more southwesterly with
the passage of the upper low, the cap may restrengthen a bit
across southeast texas. Given the increasing divergence also
associated with this low, this may only limit intensity or delay
onset of initial thunderstorm activity with lift from the upper
low and convergence along the front still resulting in the
development of widespread showers and thunderstorms along the cold
front. With mean winds in the cloud bearing layer (850-300 mb)
oriented parallel to the cold front, expect thunderstorms to grow
upscale into a line/complex that marches progressively across the
region with the front.

Veering wind profiles ahead of the front will continue
to promote the potential for organized thunderstorm development,
including the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms as 0-6
km bulk shear values exceed 35 knots. Increasing mid-level lapse
rates ahead of the front (8-8.5 c/km) will result in thunderstorms
capable of producing damaging winds and large hail, but will also
need to monitor any cells that may develop ahead of the
thunderstorm line as well as the leading edge for a transient
tornado threat as an increasing low level jet results in 0-1 km
bulk shear values exceeding 30 knots. Locally heavy rain will also
remain possible as atmospheric moisture content exceeds the 90th
percentile for this time of year, but expect the overall speed of
the frontal system to mitigate against widespread flooding
concerns.

Rain chances will quickly end from west to east behind the front
by Sunday afternoon, with cooler and drier conditions ending the
weekend as highs only reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. Quasizonal
flow becoming established in the wake of this weekend's system
will allow for dry weather and a gradual warming trend on Monday
and Tuesday. Rain chances return to the forecast by the middle of
next week as another cold front approaches the region.

Huffman
marine...

strong nne winds early this morning will diminish quickly as high
pressure settles over tx. Onshore winds will resume later today
as high pressure moves off to the east. A small craft advisory
will likely be required Friday night through Saturday night as sse
winds strengthen in response to deep low pressure over south
texas. The low will move NE and drag a cold front across SE tx
early Sunday morning. An abrupt wind shift to the nnw is expected
in the wake of the front and another SCA will be required on
Sunday. A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will develop
Monday and continue into Tuesday as high pressure drifts east and
away from the state.

Will need to keep an eye on elevated water levels and risk of rip
currents going into the weekend. Tide levels could potentially
exceed 3.5 feet near high tide early Saturday morning. A coastal
flood watch or advisory may be required late Friday night into
early Saturday. 43

Preliminary point temps/pops
College station (cll) 82 67 91 75 86 / 0 10 10 20 40
houston (iah) 84 69 90 77 84 / 0 10 10 20 40
galveston (gls) 76 72 83 77 81 / 0 10 10 20 20

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 10 am cdt this morning
for the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to
the matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from
high island to freeport out 20 nm.

Small craft should exercise caution until 1 pm cdt this
afternoon for the following zones: waters from freeport to
the matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from
high island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 39


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 5 mi51 min ENE 7 G 12 64°F 75°F1010.5 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 10 mi51 min E 8.9 G 11 64°F 72°F1010.4 hPa
LYBT2 12 mi51 min E 7 G 8.9 67°F 75°F1009.8 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 17 mi51 min E 8 G 9.9 68°F 76°F1010.7 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 22 mi51 min ENE 13 G 18 72°F1009.9 hPa
GRRT2 22 mi51 min E 12 G 15 65°F 73°F1010.3 hPa
GTOT2 23 mi51 min 65°F 75°F
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 26 mi51 min E 11 G 15 65°F 72°F1010.3 hPa
HIST2 31 mi51 min E 8.9 G 12 67°F 74°F1010.5 hPa
LUIT2 38 mi51 min ENE 14 G 17 66°F 75°F
KXIH 38 mi36 min ESE 14 G 20 68°F 57°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 40 mi61 min NE 16 G 18 65°F 75°F4 ft1010 hPa (+0.4)58°F
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 49 mi51 min NE 11 G 16 68°F 76°F1010.6 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi61 minE 810.00 miFair68°F48°F49%1011.2 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX15 mi58 minE 10 G 1410.00 miFair70°F48°F47%1010.9 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX16 mi58 minE 610.00 miA Few Clouds68°F50°F53%1010.8 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX23 mi76 minE 810.00 miFair68°F46°F46%1009.5 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX24 mi59 minE 1010.00 miFair71°F57°F63%1010.6 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S9S8S11--SW6SW6S6----N11N10N9N9N7N9N6----NE4NE7NE8NE8E8
1 day agoS15S15SE14S14
G20
SE12S11S16
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S10SE10SE11SE12S11
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--SE14SE12S13S14
2 days agoS4W5SE5--SE5E9S11S9S10S6S5S3S3S4S3SE3SE3SE3SE3E4SE4S10S14
G19
S16

Tide / Current Tables for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Barbours Cut
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:13 AM CDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:50 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:36 AM CDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:18 PM CDT     1.41 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:57 PM CDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:54 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:27 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.40.20.10.20.30.60.91.21.41.61.71.71.71.61.51.41.41.41.41.41.31.21

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:35 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:57 AM CDT     2.47 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:40 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:49 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:28 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:45 PM CDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:32 PM CDT     -0.09 knots Min Ebb
Thu -- 07:53 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:26 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:14 PM CDT     -2.11 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.7-1.3-0.50.41.42.22.52.21.60.90.2-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.4-0.1-0.1-0.4-1-1.5-1.9-2.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.