Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Seabrook, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:45PM Thursday October 19, 2017 4:20 AM CDT (09:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:10AMMoonset 6:04PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 1104 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Rest of tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1104 Pm Cdt Wed Oct 18 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. A strengthened long easterly fetch is currently setting up across the northern gulf and will persist into the weekend. This will result in elevated seas and tides. Shower and Thunderstorm chances increase Friday and will continue through the weekend ahead of a Sunday cold frontal passage. Moderate to strong offshore winds can be expected in its wake.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Seabrook, TX
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location: 29.61, -94.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 190907
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
407 am cdt Thu oct 19 2017

Discussion
A plume of gulf moisture is evident on goes-16 total precipitable
water imagery moving towards the middle texas coast early this
morning. Height falls associated with a series of shortwave
troughs lifting across new mexico and western texas today will
result in a deepening lee surface trough over the high plains,
increasing easterly southeasterly surface winds across the coastal
waters and pushing this moisture plume closer to the coast. The
main questions over the next 24 hours will be how far north and
east this moisture will make it into the region... And what that
will mean for rain chances today and tonight.

Light west to southwest 925-850 mb winds near the texas coast
will help the moisture plume begin to spread north in the region
later this morning, pushing into the southwestern counties and
matagorda bay area. As winds back to the southeast by this
afternoon and strengthen with the deepening lee trough, this
moisture gets pushed farther north towards the brazos valley. 00z
guidance differs by a few hours on when this backing actually
happens, however, and this will affect how close rain chances
actually make it to the interstate 45 corridor today. Given some
uncertainty with this timing, have pulled a mention of isolated
showers and thunderstorms (15 pops) as far west as a snook-katy-
liverpool line. However, expect best rain chances today to remain
much farther south and west. Isolated showers developing across
the western coastal waters later this morning should spread
inland as scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as
deeper moisture moves onshore. Expect rain chances to remain
mainly relegated to the coast and adjacent waters tonight with
loss of heating but cannot rule out a few showers spreading
farther inland as a second wave of moisture arrives overnight.

Otherwise, expect highs today in the low to mid 80s with lows
tonight in the low to mid 60s north of interstate 10 and mid to
upper 70s south.

Continued moisture advection and another shortwave trough lifting
across the region on Friday is expected to result in the
development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Best chances on Friday are expected to be along and west of
interstate 45 in a corridor of low level warm air advection.

Forecast precipitable water values surge to 1.7 to 1.9 during the
afternoon hours and brief heavy rainfall will be possible Friday
through the weekend as atmospheric moisture levels remain
elevated. Rain chances are expected to focus closer to the coast
Friday night as speed convergence develops. Expect cloud cover and
rain on Friday to keep highs a few degrees cooler than today in
the lower 80s with lows Friday night in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

As a potent upper trough approaches the region on Saturday, a
60-70 knot jet streak looks to nose across the region ahead of it
and provide enough lift for scattered thunderstorms to again
develop across the region. This jet streak, combined with mid-
level lapse rates steepening to near 7 c km across the brazos
valley and 0-6 km shear increasing to 25-30 knots, may result in
enough instability and or organization for a strong thunderstorm
or two on Saturday across the brazos valley and remaining western
counties. As this upper trough swings across the southern great
plains Sunday into Monday, it will send a cold front surging south
across the region. The upper jet structure as the cold front
enters the region appears to develop into more of a split-jet,
indicating the potential for strong to possibly severe
thunderstorms will continue into Sunday as the cold front arrives
with a band of thunderstorms developing along the cold front as it
pushes across the region. Model guidance still offers slightly
different solutions regarding if when a closed low may develop,
but appear to be converging on a more consistent solution east of
the region and confidence is beginning to increase that the front
may clear the region Sunday.

Drier conditions are expected behind the cold front on Monday as
the upper trough (or low) exits the region, with a reinforcing
cold front arriving sometime Tuesday allowing for slightly below
normal temperatures in the mid to upper 70s by the middle of next
week.

Huffman

Marine
High pressure over the eastern u.S. And lower pressures over the
southern gulf of mexico will produce an easterly flow across the
coastal waters today. The gradient will tighten and stronger
onshore winds are expected. A scec will be issued for the gulf
waters today and will likely need to be extended tonight. A
moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will persist through
Saturday. Water levels and tides are currently progged to exceed
3.0 feet Thursday afternoon and could exceed 3.5 feet on Friday
near times of high tide. A cold front, and associated showers and
thunderstorms, will cross the coastal waters on Sunday afternoon
and a moderate to strong offshore flow will develop Sunday night
and persist into the first half of next week. A reinforcing front
is penciled in for Tuesday. Small craft advisories are likely
behind both fronts. 43

Fire weather
Satellite imagery not showing any hot spots this morning but not
sure if cirrus is blocking the view or the fires have been
extinguished. Moisture levels should increase today and rh values
will only fall to around 50 percent by afternoon. Precip will also
begin to develop south of i-10 later this afternoon so the fire
weather threat is greatly reduced today and will remain low
through the weekend. 43

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 85 65 81 68 86 10 20 60 30 40
houston (iah) 84 68 80 72 85 10 20 60 30 40
galveston (gls) 82 75 81 76 84 10 20 60 30 40

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution through this evening for the
following zones: coastal waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high
island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high
island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 14
aviation marine... 43


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 5 mi51 min E 4.1 G 6 71°F 77°F1018.9 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 10 mi51 min SE 7 G 8 75°F 73°F1019 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 17 mi51 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 69°F 79°F1018.4 hPa
GRRT2 22 mi51 min NE 6 G 8.9 76°F 74°F1018.9 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 22 mi51 min ESE 13 G 16 76°F1018.4 hPa
GTOT2 23 mi51 min 77°F 77°F
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 26 mi51 min SE 11 G 14 76°F 73°F1018.9 hPa
HIST2 31 mi51 min ESE 5.1 G 7 73°F 75°F1019.2 hPa
LUIT2 38 mi51 min SE 11 G 14 77°F 1018.5 hPa
KXIH 38 mi46 min SSE 13 77°F 63°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 40 mi91 min ESE 14 G 19 78°F 80°F3 ft1018.6 hPa (-1.0)65°F
FCGT2 - 8772447 - USCG Freeport, TX 49 mi51 min E 7 G 8.9 78°F 76°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi31 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F60°F78%1019.3 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX15 mi28 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F61°F81%1019.3 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX16 mi28 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy69°F62°F78%1019.3 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX23 mi26 minE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F62°F78%1019 hPa
Galveston, Scholes Field, TX24 mi29 minESE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F64°F62%1018.8 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE5--S3SE4SE3--E8SE3--E5E4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE7NE3NE4N5--NE7NE9NE7N8NW8NE8
G13
N6N6NE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4Calm
2 days ago--N12N12N10N14N15
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N13N13--NW14N14N13N10NW10N7N5N9N7NE7NE5NE4NE6NE5NE4

Tide / Current Tables for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Barbours Cut
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:12 AM CDT     0.99 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:09 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:24 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM CDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 02:55 PM CDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:04 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:29 PM CDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.11111.11.21.21.31.21.110.80.60.50.50.50.70.91.11.31.41.51.5

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:23 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:28 AM CDT     0.65 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:38 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:56 AM CDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:12 PM CDT     New Moon
Thu -- 02:31 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:25 PM CDT     1.36 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:03 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:21 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-0.6-0.20.30.60.60.3-0.2-0.7-1.1-1.3-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.40.411.31.310.50.1-0.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.