Sunday, May28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreacres, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:15PM Sunday May 28, 2017 5:37 AM CDT (10:37 UTC) Moonrise 8:20AMMoonset 10:22PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 446 Am Cdt Sun May 28 2017
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers early in the morning.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely late.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 446 Am Cdt Sun May 28 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate onshore winds and seas will gradually relax today and Monday but rain chances will increase tonight into Monday as a weak cold front moves into southeast texas. Strong Thunderstorms may move into the coastal waters and bays Monday. Persistent moderate southeasterly flow is expected to return on Tuesday and continue through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreacres, TX
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location: 29.64, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 280934
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
434 am cdt Sun may 28 2017

Short term (today through Monday)
Hot and humid conditions will again blanket southeast texas
today, but the arrival of a cold front this afternoon and evening
will herald in a somewhat cooler and much wetter period this week.

Temperatures as of 4 am cdt are in the upper 70s and low 80s and
with not much change expected over the next few hours owing to
elevated onshore flow and an overcast stratus deck, this warm
start will mean not much heating is needed to push afternoon
temperatures back into the upper 80s to low 90s today. This will
help push afternoon heat index values into the low 100s again
today in many locations and residents are urged to take frequent
breaks and drink plenty of water if working outdoors. Similar to
yesterday, several record high minimum temperatures are in danger
of being tied or set again today and those records for first order
climate sites are included in the climate section below.

Regional radar mosaic early this morning shows a thunderstorm
complex slowly pushing south of the red river towards interstate
20 along a cold front. While this complex is expected to continue
weakening as it moves east southeast and encounters a capping
inversion located between 950 and 800 mb, aircraft soundings out
of dallas fort worth showed that the capping inversion evident on
the 00z fwd RAOB had begun to weaken and lift... Raising concerns
that this complex may persist farther to the southeast than what
model guidance currently indicates. As a result have added 20-30
pops to the extreme northern counties through the remainder of the
morning. May also see a few streamer showers push onto the coast
this morning from the gulf.

Thunderstorm chances will increase dramatically this afternoon
with the arrival of the cold front as the capping inversion in
place over the region erodes through the day. The combination of
moisture pooling along the front and diurnal heating (even with
mostly cloudy to cloudy skies in place) should be enough to
contribute to significant instability (mlcape values exceeding
4000 j kg) for strong to severe thunderstorm development. In
addition, steep mid-level lapse rates evident on 00z raobs
(8.4-8.9 c km) may only lessen slightly through this evening and
will only further serve to accelerate updrafts along the front.

0-6 km bulk shear during this time still appears to remain minimal
(generally 20 knots or less), which will help limit overall
thunderstorm organization. However, given a considerable dry layer
of air between 750-450 mb enhancing evaporational cooling and
downdraft acceleration, lack of thunderstorm organization does not
appear to hamper the severe weather threat for today and
concerned that thunderstorms that develop along the front will be
capable of damaging winds and possibly large hail. Best chances
for this threat to materialize appear to be north of a columbus to
cleveland line. Will also have to keep an eye on the possibility
for locally heavy rain and isolated minor to flash flooding issues
along the front with precipitable water values increasing to
1.6-1.9 inches and anticipated west to east storm motions
indicating the potential for training along the frontal boundary.

Through Monday, could see widespread 1-2 inch rain amounts across
the region but locally higher amounts in excess of 2-4 inches will
be possible.

Current timing for the cold front has it arriving into the brazos
valley and piney woods regions mid to late afternoon and the
houston metro after midnight, but this timing is highly dependent
on outflow not driving the cold front farther south faster than
what model guidance currently indicates. As a result, the front
may push into the houston metro tonight faster than anticipated
(possibly bringing an isolated damaging wind threat with it).

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist along the front
as it continues to push south during the overnight hours, with the
frontal boundary pushing near or just off of the upper texas
coast by sunrise. A shortwave trough lifting out of mexico and
moving across the region Monday morning looks to result in a
thunderstorm complex developing over south central texas and
moving east as well as ongoing convection flaring along the cold
front during the morning hours. This would renew the threat for at
least locally heavy rain and gusty winds. The location of the
cold front tomorrow morning will be highly dependent on how the
thunderstorms that develop along it behave today. Continuing to
advertise the front stalling somewhere in between interstate 10
and the coast and resulting in highest rain totals over the
southwestern counties Monday morning, but if the front is able to
push off the coast as the shortwave arrives it may limit how far
inland rain chances exist. Diurnal heating and the passing
shortwave will result in rain chances persisting through the day
on Monday with high temperatures only in the low 80s.

Huffman

Long term (Monday night through Saturday)
Subsidence in the wake of the passing shortwave may be enough to
temper rain chances (at least briefly) Monday night before
increasing during the day Tuesday as a series of waves move across
the region in the west southwest flow aloft. With little overall
change in the expected pattern through mid to late week, periods
of showers and thunderstorms capable of at least locally heavy
rain will continue through the work week. Weak mid-level flow and
deep layer saturation (1000-500 mb relative humidities in excess
of 75 percent at times) raise the concern for isolated instances
of minor or flash flooding, especially along any residual
boundaries from previous rain events. For now, have continued to
advertise 30-50 pops in the extended portion of the forecast with
refinements to locations and forecast rain amounts likely as
mesoscale features become evident.

Huffman

Marine
Southeasterly winds offshore and south-southwesterly nearshore
near 15 knots. These moderate winds will continue this morning
then gradually diminish. Scec currently up until 6 am and will let
it expire at that point. South winds today should back to the
southeast as frontal boundary-enhanced by outflow sags into the
northern cwa. Seas changing little or diminishing slightly over
the next few days in response to lighter wind fields. Possible
showers and thunderstorms could become focused near the coast or
just offshore Monday morning... Possibly strong storms as well.

Models really struggling with deep convection placement late
Monday through Tuesday and it may be so mesoscale driven that
trying to pinpoint storms as far south as coastal waters is
unreliable at best. S W passing by to the north should lead to
increased southeasterly flow late Tuesday and probably maintain it
through Saturday. ECMWF continues to point to some sort of low
pressure system taking shape in the western gulf and drifting
north toward the coastal waters Sunday then just meandering
about... Which of course isn't good news this time of year. If so
stronger easterly flow possible with impacts of elevated tide
levels. Again stay tuned.

45

Marine
Surge of stronger winds passing through the region with MVFR
ceilings. Areas along and north of cxo seeing some breaks toVFR but
these may well fill back in toward sunrise.

MVFR ceilings should prevail through mid morning north and late
morning to early afternoon south where richer deeper moisture is
evident. May see a few spotty showers develop this afternoon but
main focus for storms will likely be along the slowly sagging
frontal boundary (possibly outflow reinforced) late afternoon for
cll uts areas. Cams continue to highlight a band of precip extending
from well southwest of cll to near or north of lfk at 00z. Will
likely continue to carry the vcsh vcts north with a tempo for cll
late afternoon into the evening hours. Overnight storms and boundary
should sag slowly or stall and remain a focus for storms. Will need
to keep an eye out to the southwest for more organized circulation
to develop near Sat and shift towards the region. Could have
significant impacts Monday morning.

45

Climate
Near to record high minimum temperatures are possible at all of
the first order climate sites this morning. A listing of the
current records is provided below.

May 28
location record high minimum year
city of houston 81 1996
houston hobby 79 1996
college station 77 1996
galveston 81 1996
it was very warm yesterday with all 4 official sites either tying or
surpassing the record high minimum temperatures.

Cll 77 tied
iah 80 tied
hou 79 record (previous 78-1996)
gls 81 record (previous 80-2000)
huffman 45

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 90 70 81 69 85 50 80 50 30 50
houston (iah) 91 74 81 72 85 30 60 80 50 60
galveston (gls) 85 77 80 75 83 20 60 80 60 50

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 7 am cdt this morning
for the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to
the matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from
high island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to
the matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from
high island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Short term long term climate... 14
aviation marine climate... 45


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 3 mi50 min SSW 8 G 12 81°F 81°F1010.1 hPa
LYBT2 10 mi50 min S 9.9 G 14 80°F 82°F1009.4 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 12 mi56 min SSW 14 G 18 81°F 81°F1010.4 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 16 mi50 min SSW 4.1 G 7 80°F 81°F1010.2 hPa
GRRT2 24 mi50 min SSW 12 G 15 80°F 83°F1010.6 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 24 mi56 min S 16 G 18 81°F1010.3 hPa
GTOT2 25 mi50 min 81°F 81°F
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 27 mi50 min SSW 11 G 15 80°F 81°F1010.8 hPa
HIST2 32 mi56 min SSW 11 G 16 80°F 81°F1011.1 hPa
LUIT2 40 mi50 min SSW 12 G 16 81°F
KXIH 40 mi43 min WSW 14 G 21 82°F 77°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 42 mi48 min SSW 16 G 19 80°F 79°F4 ft1010.7 hPa (-0.5)77°F

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi3.8 hrsS 107.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F75°F84%1012.2 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX15 mi45 minSSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F75°F88%1010.2 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX16 mi45 minS 47.00 miOvercast82°F75°F82%1010.4 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX22 mi63 minSSE 85.00 miOvercast79°F75°F89%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S10S10S8S8S9S11S14S12S14S14
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S14SE12SE13S13S11S8SE8S10S10S10S10
1 day agoS8S6S5SE3S3S7S5S10S13S12S13S11S12S14S12S9SE8SE11SE9S10SE8SE10SE9S10
2 days agoS4--S4S4S4S4S9S11S15S15
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S16S11S12S11SE8SE6S7S7S7S8

Tide / Current Tables for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Barbours Cut
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:34 AM CDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:21 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:20 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:30 PM CDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:22 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.10.10.40.71.11.41.61.71.81.81.81.71.71.61.51.41.31.2

Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:08 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:20 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:36 AM CDT     2.49 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 09:20 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:39 PM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:12 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:20 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.4-2.2-1.8-1.1-0.10.91.92.42.52.21.71.30.90.60.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.9-1.3-1.7-2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.