Sunday, June16, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreacres, TX

Version 3.4
NOTICE
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 8:23PM Sunday June 16, 2019 11:32 AM CDT (16:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:56PMMoonset 4:47AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 1039 Am Cdt Sun Jun 16 2019
.small craft should exercise caution...
Rest of today..South winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. A chance of showers. A chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Some Thunderstorms may be severe with heavy rainfall after midnight.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1039 Am Cdt Sun Jun 16 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds will begin to slowly diminish through the day. Moderate flow is still expected to continue for much of the week with periods of caution flags.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreacres, TX
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 29.64, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus64 khgx 161536
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1036 am cdt Sun jun 16 2019

Update
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to fill in across
the northern half of the forecast area late this morning and into
the early afternoon hours. A highly moist (1.8 inch pwats) and
unstable air mass is over us in the downstream of activity that
is expected to develop just south of the red river in northeastern
texas. Steep mid level lapse rates equating to gt 3.5 or 4.0k j kg
cape and -11 l.I.S with the somewhat negatively tilted mid to
upper low trough over the tx panhandle creating broad jet level
diffulence across eastern texas today. With an upstream jet streak
passing across EL paso this morning, expect this feature to possibly
enhance a south to southeastern-tracking MCS or qlcs feature later
today into the evening hours. It appears that the window for the
threat of severe weather will be late this afternoon through the
early Monday morning hours. The main threat will be downburst
winds with the secondary threat, at least early the event, being
that of isolated tornadoes. 31

Prev discussion issued 612 am cdt Sun jun 16 2019
aviation [12z TAF issuance]...

streamer showers are popping up at the coast, with a stray
lightning strike here and there, while a line of showers and
storms are drooping southward in northeast texas. Chances for
showers and storms are expected to increase through the day.

Largely holdVFR across the area, but clouds at MVFR heights are
expected, and there is an outside chance that deck clouds up
enough for a ceiling. Do not be surprised if things have to change
significantly through the day. There may be a lull in the evening
after the Sun GOES down, but another round of showers and
thunderstorms may be possible very late tonight, particularly at
the northern terminals, which get a vcsh mention at the end of the
forecast period.

Prev discussion issued 353 am cdt Sun jun 16 2019 ...

discussion...

an extremely tricky forecast in the short term as mesoscale
details will wreak havoc on the larger scale setup for at least
the next 36 hours. In general, the environment is not very
conducive for severe and heavy rain threats, but a better
environment farther north may birth clusters of strong to severe
storms that will bring us at least a marginal threat for damaging
winds primarily in multiple rounds.

In the extended period, rain chances look to diminish towards the
middle and late week ahead, as focus for higher temperatures and
humidity emerge towards the middle and later portions of the week
ahead.

Short term [through Monday]...

let's start with the one place there is some actual certainty in
the short term forecast... What's happening now. Radar and
satellite show an organized, but slowly weakening and finally
beginning a broad turn to the right as suggested by cam guidance.

Meanwhile, at the coast, streamer showers are beginning over the
gulf and pushing a county or two onshore before dissipating.

Goes-east tpw product shows a plume of high moisture air with
precipitable water pushing two inches, though cloud cover makes
determining the precise extent of this plume impossible.

Regardless, this will support the continued development of
streamer showers on the onshore flow, with a preference for that
deepest moisture channel.

Though the MCS is slowly weakening, it is beginning to finally
make a turn right towards SE texas. Forecast soundings for
huntsville show that the low level environment is not terribly
stable, but nor is it terribly conducive for sustaining the mcs.

So, without selling out hard, I gradually paint, and connect the
highest pops from the onshore flow and from remnants of the mcs
coming down from the north around 14 or 15z. By now, uncertainty
is already beginning to climb.

In general, think it's reasonable that we'll see multiple rounds
of showers and storms possible through tonight and into tomorrow
morning - the ttu-wrf may not have the worst idea in developing
and swinging through two to three different mcss through the area
while the upper shortwave trough works across oklahoma. Shear will
be lousy, and so i'm very much in agreement with SPC that the
severe threat will be marginal for most, with a small area of
higher potential at our northern edge. I don't think the synoptic
environment is very supportive at all, but if an MCS riding a
healthy balanced cold pool can come out of the better environment
farther north, it will carry some decreasing severe potential
before it can weaken in the lesser environment in our area. Dcape
values are largely around or above 1000 j kg with small inverted-v
profiles, so damaging straight-line winds appear to be the
primary threat as the updrafts collapse in the strongest storms.

Hail and tornado threat will be smaller threats relative to the
damaging wind potential.

I try to carry out a multiple round scenario, with brief lulls in
pops followed by another spike as the next round comes in. I also
follow a similar trend with cloud cover, but in general the
clouds and rain should keep temperatures for today and tomorrow
suppressed a handful of degrees from what we saw yesterday.

Long term [Monday night through Sunday]...

south to southeast winds will persist through the period as
surface high pressure remains centered in around the eastern
gulf of mexico and florida peninsula area. The best chance
of rain looks to be on Tuesday as another possible impulse
disturbance moves across the area. Cannot totally rule out
possible mainly daytime shower thunderstorm development for
the remainder of the week as much of the area remains on the
northern fringes of upper level ridging, but think that a
majority of the area should stay on the dry side. Warming
temperatures still look like a good bet with mid to upper
90s expected for afternoon highs, and low temperatures might
be struggling to fall under 80 degrees at some spots. Heat
index values could be peaking at or above 105 degrees for
several days, and precautions should be taken for heat
safety. Currently showing a slight increase in rain chances
next weekend, and this would shave a couple degrees off the
afternoon high temperatures. 42
marine...

winds and seas are right on the edge of the small craft advisory
threshold - and while a good number of the obs are coming in
below, we're seeing enough sustained wind and wind gusts above 20
knots that i'd prefer to leave the advisory in place. Once winds
do come down below the advisory threshold, scec conditions look
probable for large chunks, perhaps even the majority, of the next
several days.

In addition, the persistent and strong onshore flow will keep
strong rip currents in place - there were 8 reported rip current
rescues by galveston beach patrol - and elevated tides may cause
minor issues in vulnerable spots right along the coast on
galveston island and the bolivar peninsula. These threats may ease
(very) slowly into the work week as winds back off modestly.

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 91 75 91 75 92 60 40 60 20 30
houston (iah) 92 76 91 77 92 60 50 70 20 30
galveston (gls) 88 80 88 81 89 40 50 70 20 40

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... High rip current risk through Monday morning for the following
zones: brazoria islands... Galveston island and bolivar
peninsula... Matagorda islands.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution through Monday morning for
the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to
matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from
high island to freeport tx out 20 nm... Galveston bay...

matagorda bay... Waters from freeport to matagorda ship
channel tx from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high island to
freeport tx from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 31


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KXIH 40 mi37 min S 21 86°F 75°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 42 mi32 min S 18 G 23 84°F 85°F1014.7 hPa (+0.3)80°F

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last
24hr
S7
S15
G19
S11
G22
S12
G17
S15
G20
S16
S11
G18
S13
G21
S12
G17
S12
G17
S12
G16
S12
G16
S13
G19
S14
G19
S17
G22
S13
G18
S10
G17
S9
G13
S6
G10
S11
G17
S13
G16
S14
G18
S12
G17
SE12
G19
1 day
ago
SE11
G14
SE10
G14
SE14
G18
SE14
G17
SE12
G15
SE12
G17
SE12
G16
SE13
SE12
G16
S13
G16
S15
S11
G16
S10
G15
S8
G17
S13
G17
S13
G17
S11
G17
S8
G12
S7
G11
S8
G11
S6
G10
S8
G11
S10
S8
G14
2 days
ago
E1
SE6
SE5
G8
E7
G10
E5
E7
G10
E8
G11
NE7
NE7
SE7
G12
S6
S7
G10
SE6
G9
SE9
S7
G10
S6
G11
S7
G10
S5
G11
S6
G9
S6
G9
S7
S8
SE10
S8
G12

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi3.7 hrsS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F69°F70%1012.2 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX15 mi39 minS 15 G 2510.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F73°F63%1013.5 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX16 mi39 minS 13 G 239.00 miPartly Cloudy88°F73°F63%1013.7 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX22 mi37 minVar 11 G 166.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze88°F71°F59%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
Last 24hrS6S12S11S14----S16S15S14S15S13S11S10S9S10SE10SE10--S8--S4S5S5S10
1 day agoS7S8SE8SE7SE10S8SE12
G17
S10--SE10SE10S10SE6SE4CalmSE3S5--------SE4SE3S6
2 days agoN4N4NE5NE6N5--E5E4NE4E5E4E4NE2S3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Bolivar Roads
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:19 AM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:53 AM CDT     2.35 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:47 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:19 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:35 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:11 PM CDT     -0.52 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 03:03 PM CDT     -0.51 knots Min Ebb
Sun -- 07:54 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:20 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:11 PM CDT     -2.36 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
-1.1-0.30.71.62.22.42.11.71.30.90.60.2-0.1-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.6-0.8-1.3-1.8-2.2-2.4-2.3-2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.