Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreacres, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:46PM Friday October 19, 2018 6:34 PM CDT (23:34 UTC) Moonrise 3:13PMMoonset 1:39AM Illumination 79% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 312 Pm Cdt Fri Oct 19 2018
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy after midnight. Showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..North winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 312 Pm Cdt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Winds and seas will slightly relax tonight through Saturday morning. A cold front should push off the coast during the day Saturday with northerly winds behind it. Strong northerly winds develop Saturday night through Sunday. Small craft advisories will be needed again during this time. Rough conditions may continue to start the week as a coastal trough develops Monday into Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreacres, TX
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location: 29.64, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 192052
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area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
352 pm cdt Fri oct 19 2018

Discussion
Short term [tonight through Saturday]
Ongoing radar trends show shower and isolated thunderstorm activity
from sugar land to wharton. This activity seems to be on the leading
edge of higher moisture with pwat around 2-2.2 inches per GOES 16
imagery. SPC mesoanalysis shows decent low level inflow and moisture
transport at 925-850mb which is helping this activity produce decent
rainfall rates. Storms are moving and rain rates are around a half
inch of rain an hour. Looking upstream into the gulf, there could be
more activity to move into the area so areas SW of houston may need
to be monitored for storms training over the area that has already
had rainfall. Hi-res models seem keyed in on activity this evening
but the hrrr trends have varied from run to run. The 18z hrrr really
hammers fort bend co but hard to believe this since there has been
little consistency prior to this run. That said early glance at the
19z hrrr has a similar trend so it may be picking up on something to
monitor through the evening hours. This matches well with the 12z
wrf guidance so there are trends in the models that support a heavy
rainfall threat. At this point we are not going to issue any kind of
flash flood watch but a trend to monitor going forward with flooding
as the main threat.

Overall rain chances increase across the area as a whole. A cold
front now located in the tx panhandle should slide into the area
Saturday morning shifting winds to the north. There may still be
some isentropic lift over the front that keep some rain chances
going at least some showers. Ceilings will be the main issue as
there could be a mix of ifr MVFR conditions Saturday morning with
the front pushing through. Ceilings will be slow to improve through
the day as drier air behind the front will not arrive until Saturday
night into Sunday.

Overpeck

Long term [Saturday night through Friday]
The cold front should be advecting a drier low level airmass into
the the region (temporarily) and bring an end to rain chances sat
night into early Monday. As high pressure behind the front moves
to the east, another coastal trough is likely to set up off the
coast late in the weekend and early next week. About that same
time, the pattern will be transitioning back to a messy southwest
flow aloft.

Both the coastal trough and SW flow aloft (with a series of
embedded impulses) look to persist well into next week and should
bring good chances of precip across parts of the area. As of now,
the heaviest rain and stronger storms *should* be confined
offshore assuming the surface trough stays well offshore as
guidance currently indicates. But that'll be something we'll be
keeping an eye on. 47
.Marine
winds and seas should continue to decrease tonight into Saturday
ahead of a cold front. The cold front should push off the coast
later on Saturday with northerly winds behind it. Winds and as a
result seas increase into Sunday with small craft advisories
likely. Model guidance suggests the possibility of a coastal
trough forming and increased winds as that area of low pressure
moves towards louisiana. It should remain offshore which will keep
strong winds and rough seas in place. Again, advisories will
likely be needed for this scenario. Winds and seas should finally
decrease Wednesday next week with offshore winds expected.

Tide levels will still remain elevated through the weekend as winds
will be turning from north to east over the weekend into early next
week. With a coastal trough developing Monday into Tuesday, tide
levels may increase higher than expected so we will monitor for
possible coastal flooding situations during this time.

Overpeck

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 61 71 56 70 50 70 50 0 0 0
houston (iah) 67 74 59 72 52 40 40 0 0 0
galveston (gls) 74 77 64 72 59 40 50 30 0 0

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 7 pm cdt this evening
for the following zones: waters from freeport to matagorda
ship channel tx from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high island
to freeport tx from 20 to 60 nm.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 3 mi34 min E 5.1 G 6 78°F 75°F1017.3 hPa (-0.9)
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 12 mi34 min ENE 6 G 6 74°F 72°F1017.4 hPa (-0.9)
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 16 mi34 min SE 4.1 G 8.9 80°F 77°F1016.7 hPa (-0.7)
GRRT2 24 mi34 min ESE 5.1 G 7 79°F 73°F1017.2 hPa (-0.7)
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 24 mi34 min E 7 G 7 78°F 76°F1016.7 hPa (-0.9)
GTOT2 25 mi34 min ESE 4.1 G 7 81°F 76°F1016.9 hPa (-0.8)
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 27 mi34 min E 7 G 8.9 77°F 74°F1017.3 hPa (-0.7)
HIST2 32 mi34 min E 8 G 9.9 79°F 74°F1017.6 hPa (-0.7)
LUIT2 40 mi34 min E 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 73°F1016.7 hPa (-0.7)
KXIH 40 mi19 min SE 11 81°F 75°F
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 42 mi24 min SE 7.8 G 9.7 81°F 80°F1017.7 hPa79°F
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 46 mi94 min 7.8 G 9.7 80°F 80°F1016.4 hPa (-1.4)

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi44 minE 57.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F73°F84%1017.9 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX15 mi41 minE 59.00 miOvercast79°F75°F88%1017.7 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX16 mi41 minE 38.00 miPartly Cloudy78°F77°F97%1017.7 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX22 mi39 minN 07.00 miFair79°F75°F89%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N6N8NE10NE7NE7--NE5NE5NE6NE7NE6NE5NE6NE6NE7--NE7E7E9E9E6E6E5
1 day agoN10N10N10N11N8N9--N11N10N10--N10N6NE8NE7NE6NE10NE9NE10----NE8NE7N7
2 days agoNW11NW8N8N9N9------N8N8N8N10N9N9--N8N7N8N8N8N9N9N10N10

Tide / Current Tables for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Fri -- 02:38 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:41 AM CDT     1.48 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:23 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:25 AM CDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:47 AM CDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:11 PM CDT     -0.31 knots Min Ebb
Fri -- 04:10 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:08 PM CDT     -1.00 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:39 PM CDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.21.41.51.310.60.2-0.2-0.6-0.9-1-0.8-0.6-0.4-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.8-0.9-1-0.9-0.7-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.