Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shoreacres, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 6:15PM Friday February 22, 2019 1:47 AM CST (07:47 UTC) Moonrise 9:51PMMoonset 9:12AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Galveston Bay- 947 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers late in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms. Showers likely after midnight.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Patchy fog. Showers likely in the morning. Isolated Thunderstorms. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. Patchy fog. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters smooth becoming slightly choppy after midnight.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 947 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. As a near coastal warm front moves onshore through Friday morning, winds will weaken and areas of dense sea fog should thin with more of a southerly than easterly wind. Southeasterly winds will strengthen overnight Friday into Saturday morning as a result of deepening texas panhandle low pressure. A cold front will pass across the coastal waters Saturday afternoon.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shoreacres, TX
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location: 29.64, -94.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 220542
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1142 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019

Aviation
No major changes to this ongoing winter time warm air advection
pattern of very low flight (ceiling) categories within mist,
drizzle and periodic light showers. Fog may become locally dense
near the coast but will generally remain ifr to MVFR due to the
low stratus and enough of a low level mixing easterly breeze. As
the warm front that is hugging the coastline moves inland over the
next 12 hours, there will be change on either side of the boundary.

North of the boundary there may be some rumbles of thunder as
elevated thunderstorms develop around sunrise through late
morning. Far inland low decks and drizzle will persist. South of
the front, winds will weaken and veer more south of east. Low
decks may even mix out briefly to MVFR south of front during the
afternoon but, by sunset, will likely fill in and lower back into
(v)lifr categories by early Friday evening. 31

Prev discussion issued 950 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019
discussion...

light rain drizzle are confined to the houston galveston areas at
9 pm. Some fog (visibilities generally in a 2 to 4 mile range) can
be found across much of the area with the exception of some of our
northwest counties (in around the bryan college station area).

Still expecting to see more rain development overnight with some
showers and thunderstorms possible too. Grids looks good, and not
a whole lot of changes are needed on the evening update. 42
prev discussion... Issued 635 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019
aviation...

the nearshore trough "slash" warm front will continue a slow
northern progression inland through Friday. As it does, current
lifr to low end MVFR cats will persist. Generally drizzle with
periodic light showers and fog ranging from vlifr closer to the
coast to MVFR from the city northward. As the warm frontal boundary
nears the metro through the day Friday, expect easterlies to
slightly veer to the southeast and increasing rain chances.

Elevated thunderstorms may form in the vicinity of the boundary
during the early daytime morning hours. These low cat flying
conditions will improve Saturday afternoon and evening as dry air
works its way into the region behind an afternoon cold frontal
passage. 31
prev discussion... Issued 407 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019
near term [through tonight]...

coastal trough or broad coastal low pressure is still situated
just east of the 42019 buoy which is clearly in warm sector
airmass with t TD in the low 70s and SE wind. Mesoanalysis shows
llj moving right over top the frontal boundary and main moisture
axis corresponds nicely with axis of shower activity through se
texas. Shower activity has waned this afternoon but still plenty
of drizzle and light rain to keep pops higher than what the radar
would indicate. Fog has developed as well and should continue to
spread inland with lifr ceilings. Overnight it appears these
trends will continue along with increasing sea fog in the bays and
along the coast.

Short term [Friday through Saturday night]...

the main concern going for Friday and Saturday will be any severe
weather threat. In short there will be a strong trough that
develops tomorrow over the southern rockies. There may be a lead
vorticity MAX that could trigger a few storms mainly north of
huntsville by afternoon evening. The trick will be capping that
develops and if the vorticity advection is enough to erode capping
for a few storms. EML should be spreading over the area overnight
so question of whether there will be enough parameters in place
to get storms. SPC keeps with a marginal risk on day 2 outlook and
this looks reasonable.

Saturday pacific front pushes through during the middle of the
day. Again here, capping will be an issue although jet dynamics
may be more in phase for storms along the front. That said,
boundary layer flow is a bit more veered with 925 850mb more from
the SW ahead of the front. Better dynamics exist north of the area
towards the ARKLATEX to the miss river valley where SPC day 3 has
slight enhanced risk while leaving a sliver of marginal risk over
se texas. Again there are enough conditions out of phase that
while storms could form, severe thunderstorms may not be a threat.

Front clears through the afternoon with storms pushing east
fairly quickly. There will be some decent rainfall totals with
this activity but not enough for flooding concerns.

Long term [Sunday through Thursday]...

models are trying to come into better agreement Tuesday morning
with another isentropic lift event like we have had today and
earlier this week. Gfs ECMWF are in a little better agreement with
a cold front pushing through late next week but still some
substantial differences. Again like yesterday, ensembles and
blends of models seem to be the best forecast for now until there
is better consistency.

Overpeck
marine...

sea fog looks to have returned across the bays nearshore waters
this afternoon and should persist through the overnight hours.

The marine dense fog advisory issued earlier this afternoon is
currently on tap through 9 am tomorrow morning but could be
extended. These very favorable conditions for sea fog will remain
in place until the passage of the next cold front (sat afternoon).

Otherwise, the light to moderate NE E winds tonight will be
shifting to the SE tomorrow with the passage of the coastal low
and an associated warm front. Deepening moisture and embedded
disturbances aloft will keep the weather here foggy drizzly with
scattered showers Fri Fri night.

The next cold front is still on track to move into the marine
waters late Saturday afternoon. This should end the fog threat
as a strong moderate offshore flow develops. A brief scec may be
required across the offshore waters in the wake of the front on
sun. Winds will veer to the e-ne on Sun night through early tues
as high pressure settles over the plains. This pattern should give
us a fairly persistent and deep easterly flow early next week... And
could help to increase tide levels at that time. Stay tuned. 41

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 51 65 59 70 41 30 50 60 60 0
houston (iah) 55 72 67 74 47 40 60 50 80 0
galveston (gls) 60 70 65 72 52 60 50 30 60 0

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until midnight cst tonight
for the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to
matagorda ship channel tx out 20 nm... Coastal waters from
high island to freeport tx out 20 nm.

Discussion... 42
aviation marine... 31


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 3 mi36 min N 7 G 9.9 53°F 58°F1014.2 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 12 mi36 min NE 8.9 G 12 54°F 57°F1013.9 hPa
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 16 mi30 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 50°F 64°F1013.8 hPa
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 24 mi36 min NE 14 G 17 57°F 58°F1012.7 hPa
GRRT2 24 mi36 min NNE 12 G 13 55°F 56°F1013.6 hPa
GTOT2 25 mi30 min NE 5.1 G 8.9 57°F 57°F1013.1 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 27 mi30 min NE 8 G 8.9 57°F 57°F1013.5 hPa
HIST2 32 mi36 min NE 5.1 G 6 56°F 57°F1013.7 hPa
LUIT2 40 mi30 min NNE 12 G 14 56°F 58°F1012.8 hPa
42035 - GALVESTON 22NM East of Galveston, TX 42 mi38 min ENE 14 G 16 60°F 62°F1013.6 hPa
42043 - GA-252 TABS B 46 mi108 min ENE 14 G 18 60°F1012.5 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX10 mi2 hrsNNE 60.50 miFog52°F51°F100%1014.2 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX15 mi55 minN 81.25 miFog/Mist52°F51°F97%1014.6 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX16 mi55 minN 80.75 miFog/Mist53°F53°F100%1014.4 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX22 mi53 minN 70.15 miFog50°F50°F100%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6--NE6N6N8N6NE8NE7NE9NE8NE5N7N7N6N8N5N8N10N7N7N6NE5NE6N6
1 day agoNW10NW10NW9NW12NW8NW9NW9NW13NW12NW10NW10N10NW6N5N4N6N6NE7N7N6N5N7N4--
2 days agoNE8NE9NE12NE10NE10NE12NE12NE11NE11NE12NE9NE8NE9N7--N7N6NW8NW7NW8N6N5NW6NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Bolivar Roads, Texas Current
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Bolivar Roads
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Fri -- 01:40 AM CST     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:03 AM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:15 AM CST     0.65 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:37 AM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:10 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:05 PM CST     -1.31 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:32 PM CST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:13 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:58 PM CST     0.96 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:50 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:01 PM CST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-00.40.60.60.3-0.2-0.6-1-1.2-1.3-1.2-0.9-0.30.30.810.80.50-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.