Saturday, February24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou Vista, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 6:00PM Saturday February 24, 2018 10:00 AM CST (16:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:39PMMoonset 1:43AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 919 Am Cst Sat Feb 24 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 6 pm cst this evening...
Rest of today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east in the afternoon. Bay waters a light chop. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters a light chop. Showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Showers likely after midnight.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Southeast winds around 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 919 Am Cst Sat Feb 24 2018
Synopsis.. Gusty south winds are expected today ahead of an approaching cold front. A shortwave trof advancing through the plains will push this cold front into the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning where it is expected to stall. Showers and Thunderstorms will accompany the front and continue into Sunday before coming to an end early Monday as a second shortwave trof advances through. A brief period of light to modest offshore flow will prevail Monday with winds turning east and then southeast on Tuesday through the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou Vista, LA
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location: 29.67, -91.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 241205
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
605 am cst Sat feb 24 2018

Aviation
Low ceilings have been bouncing around this am but vsby has
managed to remain abv 3sm all TAF lctns. Radar is indcg a few
streamer showers in SE tx lifting to the north. Conds for br have
been creeping in from the east and lft and ara seems to have the
best potential for vsby to drop due to br thru 14z to 15z. Winds
will pick up later this am as a frontal sys that has been stalled
to our northwest gets a kick that will push it off to the east
later tdy... Look for this development drg the aftn hrs. Ceilings
will improve somewhat late mrng early aftn hrs. But shwrs will
mov in late this aftn and thru the eve hours. Shwrs and tstms will
incr in area coverage and strength into the early morning hrs on
Sunday W FROPA is xpcd around sr at lch.

Prev discussion issued 415 am cst Sat feb 24 2018
discussion...

a few areas of patchy light fog being observed inland this morning
mainly across acadiana. Meanwhile areas of dense sea fog continue
to plague the near shore coastal waters and the immediate
coastline. Guidance is not particularly enthusiastic about
widespread development of inland fog this morning and the lack of
significant development thus far seems to corroborate this
analysis. That said, other than some slightly elevated winds,
there really isn't much to inhibit fog development so I did opt
to keep patchy fog wording in the forecast area wide until 15z to
account for the possibility of fog development in areas where
winds are a bit lighter.

A frontal boundary extends from just east of dallas southwest to
waco texas this morning. As this front slowly progresses east
today, the tightening pressure gradient will result in increasing
winds which should serve to help erode the marine fog along the
coast and offshore. Further inland, sustained winds of 15 to 20
knots with gusts to 30 can be expected with the strongest winds
occurring this afternoon.

The front will move into the area late this evening before
stalling resulting in a potentially long duration heavy rain
event with low end severe potential on top. On the rainfall side
of things, the official forecast will indicate QPF totals of
around 1.5 inches, but some guidance is going as high as 3 inches
and this will certainly be possible in some areas. Given that the
front will be stalled over the area for around 24 hours, it is
reasonable to assume that a precip training situation could set up
resulting in totals considerably higher.

On the severe side of things, the overall severe potential across
our area remains low as the best thermodynamics will remain to the
north across north louisiana and southern arkansas. Anemic lapse
rates will be the big inhibiting factor locally. However,
forecast soundings do indicate favorable low level directional and
speed shear so a few strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out
with the highest probability of occurrence being this evening
through early Sunday morning. The storm prediction center has the
area highlighted in a slight risk for severe weather.

The severe weather threat decreases Sunday although the shower and
thunderstorm activity will not. The front will finally be shunted
off to the east by a second upper trough swinging through the
region Sunday night into early Monday. This second boundary will
be accompanied by some drier and cooler air which will filter into
the area Monday providing a brief, but welcome reprieve from the
"may is the new february" pattern we've been in the last couple
of weeks. Even with the relatively cooler air, both high and low
temperatures will still be about 10 degrees above normals for this
time of year.

Surface high pressure slides to the east by early Tuesday turning
winds back out of the south ahead of the next frontal boundary
progged to move through the area Thursday. This front, if the long
range guidance is to be believed, will usher in an airmass that
will provide us with the first dry weekend we've seen in several
weeks.

Jones
marine...

a long fetch of south to southeast winds will continue to drive
warm and moist air over the relatively cooler shelf waters of the
northwest gulf. This will maintain sea fog over the nearshore
coastal waters and coastal lakes and bays through at least midday
Saturday. South winds will increase and become gusty Saturday
ahead of an approaching cold front. A shortwave trof advancing
through the plains will push this cold front into the area late
Saturday night into Sunday morning where it is expected to stall.

Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the front and continue
into Sunday before coming to an end early Monday as a second
shortwave trof advances through. A brief period of light to modest
offshore flow will prevail Monday with winds turning east and
then southeast on Tuesday through the end of the week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 79 57 62 49 30 80 80 80
lch 79 65 69 57 30 90 80 80
lft 80 67 72 61 20 70 80 90
bpt 79 64 69 55 30 90 80 70

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft exercise caution through this evening for gmz450-452-
455-470-472-475.

Dense fog advisory until noon cst today for gmz430-432-450-452.

Small craft exercise caution from noon cst today through this
afternoon for gmz430-432-435.

Aviation... 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 0 mi42 min SSE 12 G 18 76°F 54°F1018.8 hPa
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 16 mi42 min SSE 9.9 G 17 74°F 54°F1018.5 hPa
EINL1 22 mi42 min S 20 G 24 74°F 54°F1018 hPa70°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi42 min SSE 12 G 18 77°F 75°F1019.4 hPa
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 46 mi120 min 13 G 16 78°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA6 mi64 minSSE 1010.00 miOvercast76°F71°F85%1018.8 hPa
Salt Point, LA17 mi67 minVar 6 mi73°F69°F87%1018 hPa

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4CalmSE7SW11
G18
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S14S12S6S6S4SE4S5S6S6SE7S7S6S7S5SE3SE5S7S10
1 day agoS9
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S10S7S3SE5SE4SE4SE4SE4SE4SE4E5E4CalmE3E3E5E4
2 days agoSE13
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S9SE7S7SE5SE5SE6SE6SE7SE8SE7SE4SE4SE4SE10

Tide / Current Tables for Tesoro Marine Term., Atchafalaya River, Louisiana
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Tesoro Marine Term.
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:43 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:35 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:50 AM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:39 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:36 PM CST     0.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:00 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:11 PM CST     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:19 PM CST     0.45 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.40.30.30.20.10.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.50.50.50.50.40.40.40.40.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:43 AM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:06 AM CST     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:35 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:28 PM CST     1.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.2-0.1-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.60.811.11.21.21.11.11.11.11110.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.