Sunrise 6:30 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM Moonrise 3:02 PM   Moonset 3:27 AM

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GMZ435 Vermilion And West Cote Blanche Bays- 256 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots, diminishing to around 5 knots late this evening and overnight. Bay waters light chop. Patchy fog late. Saturday - East winds around 5 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters rough. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots, becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters rough. Monday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop. Wednesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters light chop. Wednesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 256 Pm Cdt Fri Apr 19 2024
Synopsis - Generally light onshore flow will continue through tonight. A weak front will stall over the region by Saturday, with winds remaining southeast to east. Shower activity will increase late Saturday into early Sunday as a disturbance aloft moves into the area, while the front moves south across the coastal waters. Modest to strong offshore winds will develop in its wake Sunday morning and continue into early Monday before diminishing.

FXUS64 KLCH 192300 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 600 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A warm and humid end to the work week is ongoing across the forecast area this afternoon, with temperatures currently ranging from the lower 80s near the coast to the mid to upper 80s further inland, while dewpoints are in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Skies are partly to mostly cloudy at this time, while area radar is quiet apart from some very light echoes on our western edge. Could see a few more of these very light echoes developing and spreading eastward into the forecast are over the next few hours, but for the most part dry weather should continue into this evening.
Tonight, warm and humid conditions will persist, with lows only expected to fall into the mid to upper 60s, which is around 5 to 10 degrees above climo norms.

Afternoon surface analysis shows a cold front draped from the eastern Great Lakes region to the Rio Grande Valley, with the boundary moving through the Ark-La-Tex region over the last few hours. This front is expected to continue its slow southeastward progression over the next few hours, before eventually becoming stalled across CENLA as the boundary becomes oriented parallel to the flow aloft. Initially this front is not expected to be accompanied by much precipitation due to decent capping as well as dry air in the mid-levels however, a few showers cannot be ruled out tonight especially for CENLA, as ample moisture will be available overhead.

Moisture will continue to pool overhead tomorrow along and south of the boundary, with PWATs progged to increase into the 1.6-1.8" range by the late afternoon/evening hours. Rain chances will remain fairly minimal throughout tomorrow morning as capping remains in place, before increasing by the late afternoon into the overnight period as a shortwave aloft slides overhead from the west. The combination of this shortwave, the frontal boundary, and the excessive moisture overhead will result in widespread heavy rainfall beginning tomorrow late afternoon/evening and continuing through Sunday morning. Thunderstorm potential looks fairly minimal, with the main threat/concern looking to be heavy rain which could lead to localized flooding. WPC has outlined a good bit of our SE TX counties as well as our northern most LA parishes in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall tomorrow, while our south-central LA parishes have been included in the Marginal Risk for Sunday.

The stalled front eventually gets a push southeastward by early Sunday thanks to the passing shortwave, which will bring a much cooler airmass into the region for the second half of the weekend. Overnight lows tomorrow/Sun morning will fall into the low 50s inland to mid/upper 50s near the coast, which is just slightly below seasonal norms. On Sunday, daytime highs will be well below normal as the combination of CAA, lingering shower activity, and post-frontal cloud cover hinder warming, with highs only expected to top out in the low to mid 60s. Lingering precip behind the front will gradually taper off west to east through Sunday morning, while cloud cover will likely hang around into the evening hours until high pressure starts to build overhead from the north. Sunday night then brings the coldest temps of the forecast period, with lows in the low 40s to low 50s expected.

17

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

By the beginning of the work week and this long term period, the cold front will be well off to the east of us with a high pressure off to the north and west building into the area. Great weather conditions will stay for this one day with sunny skies, light northerly winds, highs in the 70s, and lows in the 40s~50s.

Going into Tuesday flow aloft will be out of the WNW and the surface high pressure will move off to the east of the area. The rest of the long term will see a warming and moistening trend. Highs on Tuesday will be back in the upper 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 50s to 60s, with the rest of the days in the long term seeing a daily 2-4 degree increase. Dewpoints will make it back into the 60s, leading to more humid conditions.

As far as precip goes, we will stay on the dry side for a majority of the period. There is an outside chance of seeing some isolated showers and storms as a series of weak shortwaves move through, however PoPs at the most range from 10-20 percent.

Stigger/87

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

MVFR ceilings will once again develop tonight with IFR stratus also occurring late tonight through sunrise. Ceilings will gradually lift Saturday, however MVFR ceilings will likely linger through the day. Showers and storms may also develop late in the period. Winds will be light and south to southeast tonight, however winds will veer northeast at KAEX by afternoon and then elsewhere just beyond the period.

MARINE
Issued at 335 PM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Generally light onshore flow will continue through tonight. A weak front will stall over the region by Saturday, with winds remaining southeast to east. Shower activity will increase late Saturday into early Sunday as a disturbance aloft moves into the area, while the front moves south across the coastal waters. Modest to strong offshore winds will develop in its wake Sunday morning and continue into early Monday before diminishing.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 63 71 49 63 / 30 30 80 40 LCH 69 83 56 66 / 0 20 70 40 LFT 69 84 58 66 / 10 20 70 60 BPT 69 83 57 67 / 10 20 70 30

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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