Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bayou Vista, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 5:06PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 11:43 AM CST (17:43 UTC) Moonrise 9:06AMMoonset 7:51PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 924 Am Cst Tue Nov 21 2017
Rest of today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Rain showers likely in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Rain showers likely in the evening, then slight chance of rain showers after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Friday..Northeast winds up to 5 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Friday night..Southwest winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..West winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 924 Am Cst Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis.. Southeasterly winds will persist through today as high pressure remains centered over the southeastern states. Gusty northerly winds are expected behind our next frontal passage tonight... Lingering into Wednesday night before diminishing as another round of high pressure builds over the region.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayou Vista, LA
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location: 29.67, -91.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 211520
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
920 am cst Tue nov 21 2017

Update
Main update is to tweak pops up through the day, especailly along
the coastal zone. Guidance has come into better agreement with the
first wave of precipitation moving across today with the shortwave
and a secondary round with the cold front tonight.

Prev discussion issued 558 am cst Tue nov 21 2017
discussion...

12z tafs
aviation...

a couple different weather features will result in changing
conditions throughout the TAF period.

A mid layer cloud deck and light showers have been infiltrating
the region across southeast texas this morning in response to
increasing moisture and a weak shortwave in the vicinity. The
instability associated with this feature will allow for activity
to gradually increase through the morning. A few thunderstorms
will be possible during the afternoon hours, but are not expected
to be widespread enough to warrant mention in the TAF at this
time. This feature will push off to the east by this evening, but
will be replaced by another shortwave and an approaching cold
front late this evening and tonight.

The front will produce another round of mainly scattered showers
and will gradually turn winds out of the north as it passes. For
this package attempted to provide a broad timeframe for the wind
shift, but this will be further refined in subsequent updates.

Guidance is also indicating considerable lowering of the cloud
deck to ifr both in advance of and in the immediate wake of the
front. While this may be a bit overdone, decided to include it for
planning purposes. This, also, will be refined in upcoming
forecast packages.

Jones
prev discussion... Issued 406 am cst Tue nov 21 2017
discussion...

early morning sfc analysis shows high pressure holding on over the
region, centered off the carolina coast and ridging swwd to the
wrn gulf region. Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave departing
the forecast area at this time... Helping fire some shower activity
mainly over the coastal waters off sern la... With another weaker
vort upstream moving into the red river valley... The main impact
of this feature is considerable cirrus per satellite imagery
approaching the area. Meanwhile another significant shortwave is
noted moving into the WRN great lakes this morning.

Expecting to see showers begin developing mainly over the swrn
zones after sunrise as the approaching shortwave begins
encountering a little deeper moisture off the gulf per forecast
soundings. This activity will spread across the remainder of the
forecast are over the rest of the day, although highest pops will
remain over the swrn zones where moisture will be best. Also
inserted iso thunder for the afternoon as forecast soundings are
beginning to show just a little instability along with better
low-level convergence. Meanwhile the system crossing the great
lakes today is progged to drive our next cold front... Currently
noted over the cntl plains... Toward the region tonight which
should push any preceding convection out the area and into the
gulf with its arrival.

No significant changes thereafter with our thanksgiving weather
still looking dry but chilly as nrly flow again develops aloft
and high pressure builds over the region at the sfc. Morning wake
up temps are expected to be around freezing across the nern 1 4 of
the area, with readings in the mid upper 30s elsewhere. Highs are
currently forecast to top out around 60 across the ERN 1 2. In
our progressive pattern, high pressure will quickly build past the
region, allowing for a brief warmup before another front slides
through over the weekend. As of now, moisture looks too slim to
allow for much chance of rain with its passage.

Marine...

another round of elevated (in this case, caution-criteria winds)
offshore flow is expected with the frontal passage beginning
tonight and lingering through Wednesday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 68 45 62 31 40 40 10 0
lch 70 52 65 39 60 50 10 0
lft 70 50 63 37 70 70 10 0
bpt 71 53 67 40 40 30 10 0

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Public... 27


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 0 mi44 min ENE 5.1 G 6 64°F 59°F1016 hPa (-0.6)
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 16 mi44 min E 9.9 G 12 65°F 59°F1015.4 hPa (-0.5)
EINL1 22 mi44 min ESE 9.9 G 11 62°F 60°F1015.1 hPa (-0.4)58°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 44 mi44 min ESE 4.1 G 6 69°F 62°F1016.3 hPa
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 46 mi104 min 14 G 15 62°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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N8
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SW17
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N6
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA6 mi1.8 hrsE 610.00 miOvercast62°F54°F75%1016.8 hPa
Salt Point, LA17 mi51 minESE 6 mi1°F0°F%1015.1 hPa

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E53CalmW5W6W5CalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3NE4E3E4E5E4E6
1 day agoN13
G18
N11
G19
N13
G20
N10N9
G18
N10N5N6N3N4N5CalmN5N4N5NE4NE4NE8NE5NE4NE3NE5E6E6
2 days ago--S20
G25
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SW14SW12
G19
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SW11SW8SW7SW5NW13
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N12N16
G26
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N13N15
G21
N13
G18
N14
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N10
G17
N12NE16
G23
N14N13
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Tesoro Marine Term., Atchafalaya River, Louisiana
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Tesoro Marine Term.
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:47 AM CST     0.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:34 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:06 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:44 PM CST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:06 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:50 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 10:28 PM CST     0.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.50.50.50.50.50.40.30.30.20.10.10.100.10.10.20.30.40.40.50.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:23 AM CST     1.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:34 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:05 AM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:35 AM CST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:51 PM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 08:38 PM CST     1.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:34 PM CST     1.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.41.51.51.51.41.20.90.60.2000.10.20.40.70.91.21.41.51.61.61.51.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.