Saturday, January19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Apalachicola, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 5:09PM Saturday January 19, 2019 8:22 PM CST (02:22 UTC) Moonrise 4:40PMMoonset 5:56AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Expires:201901201315;;621586 Fzus52 Ktae 200039 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 739 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-755-765-770-772-775-201315- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 739 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
.gale warning in effect through Sunday evening...
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 25 knots becoming northwest 25 to 30 knots after midnight. Gusts to 40 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters rough. Rain showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 40 knots until late afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters rough. Slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Protected waters choppy. Rain showers likely through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 20 knots becoming west 20 knots early in the morning. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Protected waters choppy. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Rain showers likely.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 739 Pm Est Sat Jan 19 2019
Synopsis.. Showers and Thunderstorms will spread across the marine area this evening and tonight. Winds and seas will continue to increase tonight with gale force gusts expected this evening through much of tomorrow. Will likely need a small craft advisory for a portion of Sunday night as winds and seas weaken. Expect an increase in winds and seas mid week as the next front moves through the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Apalachicola, FL
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location: 29.71, -84.98     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 200104 aaa
afdtae
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service tallahassee fl
804 pm est Sat jan 19 2019

Update
The tornado watch has been extended eastward to turner and tift
counties in ga southwest into leon, liberty, and gulf counties
in fl, and is in effect until midnight. A squall line continues
moving eastward W several reports of wind damage. The near
storm environment remains favorable for a tornado or two over
the watch area through midnight. Meanwhile, we have begun to
clear some of our counties west of the line as the the threat
moves east. The remainder of the forecast remains on track.

Prev discussion [803 pm est]
Near term [through tonight]
The main focus will be on a squall line entering and sweeping from
west to east across the local region later this afternoon and
tonight. SPC continues to show a slight risk for severe weather
mainly along and west of an albany to tallahassee line with a
marginal risk elsewhere. While scattered showers have developed
ahead of the squall line, there has also been several breaks in the
cloud cover helping to further destabilize the atmosphere. A tornado
watch may be needed later afternoon or evening for at least a
portion of our CWA but will need to continue to monitor the line
and its evolution.

Behind the squall line we will see the passage of a strong cold
front with a much colder and drier airmass quickly filtering into
the area. It will also remain breezy overnight. This in combination
with extensive low level cloudiness may help keep temperatures from
dropping as low as previously forecast. Lows will range from near 40
northwest to around 50 across the southeast big bend.

Short term [Sunday through Monday night]
Will see a short break in precipitation for the short term as high
pressure builds across the eastern conus. With dry conditions in the
short term, the focus turns to the temperatures as the northwest
flow behind the cold front ushers in colder conditions. Highs Sunday
will range from the mid 40s across parts of southeast alabama to the
the lower 50s across the eastern florida big bend. With gusty winds
though, temperatures will feel like the 30s and 40s though. Thus, if
you are planning on spending time outside on Sunday, make sure you
bundle up! Highs on Monday will be in the 50s, but won't feel quite
as cold with weaker winds. Lows Monday morning are expected to be
the coldest over the next few days with most areas below freezing.

As the low level winds veer to the southeast, temperatures will be
slightly warmer Tuesday morning with lows in the mid 30s to lower
40s.

Long term [Tuesday through Saturday]
As the surface high moves east into the atlantic, low level winds
will become southerly, with gulf moisture returning to the CWA and
temperatures beginning to increase. Isentropic based showers will
allow for the return of low end rain chances to the forecast on
Tuesday. As a trough deepens over the rockies Tuesday into
Wednesday, another front will push eastward with a low developing
along the southern end of the front and the system bringing high
rain chances back to the CWA Wednesday and Thursday. There's enough
instability for the mention of thunder with the system, however the
timing of this will have to be refined as the event nears. Behind
this system, pops will be limited into the first half of the
weekend.

Aviation
[through 00z Monday]
light rain is moving across most of the terminals with widespread
MVFR CIGS outside of vld where conditions areVFR at present. A
line of thunderstorms moving into dhn and ecp as of 23-00z will
cross the remainder of the terminals through 07z. Expect at least
MVFR with brief ifr or even lifr in the heaviest rain as this
activity moves through. Southerly winds gusting in excess of 25
kt along and ahead of this line. Once the line moves through, a
return to MVFR CIGS and winds veering to the northwest, gusting
up to 25 kt through Saturday afternoon. MVFR CIGS should lift
around 15z withVFR thereafter.

Marine
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the marine area this
evening and tonight. Winds and seas will continue to increase
tonight with gale force gusts expected this evening through much
of tomorrow. Will likely need a small craft advisory for a portion
of Sunday night as winds and seas weaken. Expect an increase in
winds and seas mid week as the next front moves through the area.

Fire weather
A cold front will pass through tonight bringing rain to the
area this afternoon into tonight. Winds have increased today
and will remain elevated through tomorrow. Despite this, rh
values remain above critical thresholds and thus red flag
conditions are not expected.

Hydrology
Showers and thunderstorms will spread across the area this afternoon
into tonight with around 3 4" or less of rain expected through
tonight. While a few rivers are already in minor flood or action
stage, these should not cause any significant impacts. Another
front will bring additional rainfall mid to late week with around
one to two inches of rain which will cause some rises on area
rivers.

With the strong southerly winds ahead of the front, water levels
will be elevated along the coast tonight, particularly in
apalachee bay. Inundation along the coast of 1 to 2.5 feet is
possible. This is expected to align timewise with high tide
overnight and thus have issued a coastal flood advisory for
tonight from franklin county east to dixie county.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is requested. Spotters should safely report
significant weather conditions and or damage by calling the office or
tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 47 51 31 56 37 100 0 0 0 0
panama city 44 50 34 54 42 70 0 0 0 0
dothan 41 47 29 52 34 70 0 0 0 0
albany 44 49 30 52 33 100 0 0 0 0
valdosta 48 51 31 54 36 90 10 0 0 0
cross city 52 54 32 58 38 90 10 0 0 0
apalachicola 48 52 34 55 44 90 0 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... Wind advisory until 7 am est 6 am cst Sunday for coastal bay-
coastal dixie-coastal franklin-coastal gulf-coastal
jefferson-coastal taylor-coastal wakulla-south walton.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 am est Sunday for coastal dixie-
coastal franklin-coastal jefferson-coastal taylor-coastal
wakulla.

High rip current risk through Sunday evening for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

High surf advisory until 7 pm est 6 pm cst Sunday for coastal
bay-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Gale warning until 7 pm est Sunday for apalachee bay or coastal
waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20
nm-coastal waters from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl
out to 20 nm-coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton
beach fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from mexico beach to
apalachicola fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from mexico beach
to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20 nm-waters from
suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl
from 20 to 60 nm.

Update... Lf
near term... Barry
short term... Fieux
long term... Fieux
aviation... Lf
marine... Fieux
fire weather... Fieux
hydrology... Fieux


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 1 mi35 min SSW 15 G 21 65°F 58°F1005.2 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 22 mi23 min SSW 28 G 30 69°F 1005.6 hPa (-1.7)64°F
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 44 mi89 min S 25 G 30 64°F 59°F1005.7 hPa
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 48 mi35 min W 21 G 25 63°F 62°F1006.8 hPa

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Apalachicola, Apalachicola, FL3 mi33 minSSW 12 G 246.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist66°F63°F90%1005.4 hPa

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmS4S4S5S5S6S5S5S6S5S7S8S7SW7S10SW9SW11S11S9SW7S3CalmSW3S3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E5NE3SE5SE8S9S8SW6S5S3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Apalachicola, Apalachicola Bay, Florida
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Apalachicola
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Sat -- 12:15 AM EST     1.41 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 07:35 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:11 AM EST     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:40 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:59 PM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 08:26 PM EST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.20.90.60.2-0.1-0.4-0.7-0.8-0.7-0.5-0.10.30.711.11.21.21.1111.11.3

Tide / Current Tables for St. George Island, 12th St. W (Bayside), St. George Sound, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.