Friday, October20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West University Place, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 6:46PM Friday October 20, 2017 1:08 PM CDT (18:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:07AMMoonset 6:42PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 1038 Am Cdt Fri Oct 20 2017
This afternoon..Southeast winds around 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy to choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth becoming choppy in the afternoon. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming smooth after midnight.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 1038 Am Cdt Fri Oct 20 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. A coastal trough will combine with an upper level storm system to bring scattered to numerous showers and Thunderstorms across the bays and upper texas coastal waters today. Winds and seas will be higher in and near any Thunderstorms. A long onshore fetch will continue into the weekend and result in continued elevated seas and tides. A cold frontal passage is expected off of the coast Sunday afternoon.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West University Place, TX
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location: 29.72, -95.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 201553
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
1053 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017

Discussion
The surge of higher gulf moisture certainly made its presence
known this morning with a good 3 to 7 inches of rain that fell
across portions of galveston and harris counties. This activity
has shifted east of i-45 this morning in line with previous days
model runs and within the axis of higher moisture with 1.8 to 2.1
inches of precipitable water. The difference is that this shift
has occurred much sooner than forecast and the same can be said
for the swath of heavy rainfall. The main changes to the forecast
for today were to have higher rain chances over the eastern most
counties of the forecast area east of i-45 with 30-40 pop for the
rest of the area. With day time heating there still could be a few
storms that develop but think for the most part any activity this
afternoon may be more isolated than scattered. High temperature
forecast for this afternoon was also updated to have upper 70s
over the areas where rain is expected and mid 80s where cloud
cover is thin.

Early look at the 12z models show another band of convection
setting up tomorrow afternoon from wharton up to crockett. There
might be a weak vorticity MAX to swing through the area tomorrow
afternoon helping to initiate this activity. Cold front and
possible squall line of storms still on track for Sunday morning.

There are still some timing differences in the models to reconcile
with the line of storms and possibly pre-frontal trough out
running the front.

Overpeck

Prev discussion issued 642 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017
aviation...

the axis of showers and thunderstorms was pushing north and east
at 1130z. Best chances will be from kiah north and northwestward
through 14z to 15z. Although there is an outside chance of
thunder, expect the rest of the day will see isolated to scattered
coverage of mainly showers as the surface front pressure trough
that help generate the earlier storms continues to push inland.

May see a brief period of MVFR conditions -- mainly ceilings --
during the late morning to midday period (15z through 18 19z).

Any shower activity that flares up this afternoon should dissipate
between 00z and 03z. MVFR conditions are expected after 09z and
there is a slight chance that ifr or lower could develop. Sref
probabilities do show some potential for patchy fog but the main
threat will be from lowering ceilings.

40
prev discussion... Issued 419 am cdt Fri oct 20 2017
discussion...

at 3 am, a coastal trough was located from about port arthur to
galveston to palacios. At 850 mb, high pressure was located over
the middle tennessee valley and the flow around this feature was
bring a plume of deeper moisture into SE tx. 850 mb dew points
have increased to 15 c at crp. At 300 mb, upper level winds were
strongly diffluent and a speed MAX was noted approaching west
texas. Water vapor imagery shows two distinct disturbances with
the first approaching early this morning and the second and weaker
disturbance arriving late this morning. At 345 am, a band of
showers and thunderstorms extended from sugar land to galveston
and then offhsore. This band will continue to move north and
should be in houston by the morning commute. The latest hrrr runs
and the hi res arw both support some training of precip this
morning over harris county and concern is growing that some
locally heavy rain could develop. Will mention locally heavy rain
in the weather grids for braz galv and harris counties for this
morning. Some of the short term guidance is producing 3 to 6
inches of rain this morning so it's something to watch.

Pw values decrease tonight to around 1.60 inches and not seeing
much forcing. Will carry 20 pops for now but think it'll be dry
for most of the area. Models continue to advertise rain on
Saturday. Fcst soundings not looking impressive with a lot of dry
air between 900-700 mb. Upper level winds remain weakly diffluent
and both the GFS and ECMWF show a strong disturbance embedded in
the SW flow aloft moving across the western half of the CWA in
aftn. Will carry 30 pops for now but these may need to be raised.

A strong cold front will approach the area late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Strong forcing from an upper level trough and
favorable jet dynamics favor widespread precip ahead of the front.

Se tx will lie in a 90 kt rrq which should aid lift. Only concern
on Sunday morning is that a pre frontal trough may develop and
outrun the actual front decrease the low level convergence. Even
so, feel upper level dynamics will compensate if low level
convergence weakens. Have favored the ECMWF for Sundays precips
event over the gfs. Skies should begin to clear from west to east
Sunday afternoon with generally clear skies and much cooler
temperatures Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday look spectacular with generally clear
skies and cool autumn temperatures. Onshore winds return Thursday
and temperatures will trend warmer with afternoon high temps back
into the lower 80s. GFS and ECMWF differ significantly Friday and
beyond with the ECMWF producing more rain with next Friday's front
and placing SE tx in a zonal flow for early next week. The gfs
shows a weaker front next Friday with less rain and it maintains
a weak upper level weakness. Have leaned a bit toward the ecmwf.

43
marine...

an coastal trough will help generate periods of showers and
thunderstorms today. Easterly winds over the coastal waters may
actually become southeasterly today due to the coastal trough.

Conditions are expected to reach advisory levels due mainly to wind
speeds east of freeport with caution levels west of freeport. That
said, winds and seas will be higher in and near thunderstorms.

Elevated tides are also a concern today. During times of high tides
later today, minor coastal flooding is possible along the bolivar
peninsula and near surfside.

40

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 82 71 87 69 78 30 20 30 60 60
houston (iah) 79 73 87 73 83 50 20 30 50 70
galveston (gls) 80 78 84 77 84 50 40 30 40 70

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... Small craft should exercise caution until 7 pm cdt this evening
for the following zones: galveston... Matagorda.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 7 pm cdt this evening
for the following zones: coastal waters from freeport to
the matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from
high island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to
the matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from
high island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 39


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 5 mi50 min ENE 5.1 G 9.9 77°F 79°F1016.9 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 20 mi50 min E 11 G 18 73°F 77°F1017.7 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 29 mi56 min ESE 16 G 20 74°F 74°F1017.7 hPa
GRRT2 38 mi50 min N 19 G 22 75°F 75°F1017.3 hPa
GTOT2 41 mi50 min 73°F 78°F
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 42 mi56 min E 19 G 22 77°F1017.6 hPa
LUIT2 46 mi50 min ENE 15 G 17 77°F 1016.7 hPa
RLOT2 - 8770971 - Rollover Pass, TX 47 mi50 min ESE 19 G 22 75°F 74°F1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John Dunn Helistop, TX2 mi73 minE 1010.00 miOvercast79°F69°F74%1017.3 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX6 mi75 minESE 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast80°F71°F74%1017.7 hPa
Houston / Ellington, TX12 mi78 minE 1010.00 miOvercast79°F71°F79%1017.9 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX15 mi75 minE 910.00 miOvercast80°F71°F74%1017.7 hPa
Houston Southwest Airport, TX16 mi73 minE 910.00 miOvercast81°F73°F78%1017.3 hPa
Houston Intercontinental Airport, TX17 mi75 minSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F71°F77%1017.6 hPa
Houston, Sugar Land Municipal / Hull Field Airport, TX17 mi75 minESE 610.00 miOvercast81°F73°F77%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from MCJ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmE44E6E8E9SE7SE9SE8E8E9E7E6NE5NE3CalmN3NE5NE7NE5E9E13E8
G14
2 days agoCalmCalmCalm3N8N6CalmNE5CalmNE65
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Tide / Current Tables for Houston Ship Channel, Galveston Bay, Manchester, Texas
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Houston Ship Channel
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:54 AM CDT     1.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:26 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:06 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:23 AM CDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:30 PM CDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:41 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:49 PM CDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.61.51.31.21.21.21.31.41.51.51.41.210.80.60.50.50.60.91.11.41.61.7

Tide / Current Tables for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
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Lynchburg Landing
Click for Map
Fri -- 05:27 AM CDT     0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:25 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:09 AM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:35 PM CDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:44 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:40 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.21.110.90.80.80.90.90.90.90.90.70.60.40.30.20.20.30.50.70.91.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.