Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Steinhatchee, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:28PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 2:01 PM EDT (18:01 UTC) Moonrise 12:07PMMoonset 10:58PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ765 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1027 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Rest of today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming onshore in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Tonight..Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots early, becoming northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming onshore near the coast in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots early, becoming northwest. Seas 1 foot. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters smooth to a light chop.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming onshore in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest early in the morning. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Friday..Variable winds less than 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of rain.
Friday night..Light and variable winds becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of rain.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 1027 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis..Light winds and low seas will persist into Saturday as the pressure pattern remains very weak. However, northeast winds will likely increase Saturday night and Sunday as a strong high pressure ridge builds south along the u.s. East coast.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Steinhatchee, FL
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location: 29.73, -83.53     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 261704
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
104 pm edt Tue sep 26 2017

Aviation [through 18z Wednesday]
Vfr conditions are expected through the TAF period. Few-sct 4-5kft
clouds are possible this afternoon and again tomorrow. Winds will
be light around 5 knots or less.

Prev discussion [1016 am edt]
Near term [through today]
In the upper levels a ridge is over the eastern u.S. And a trough is
over the western u.S. At the surface a weak pressure gradient is
over the region. Hurricane maria is off the coast of north carolina.

Northerly flow will continue with drier air in the lower levels.

That means another dry day with pops less than 10 percent. Skies
will be mostly sunny. Highs today will be around 90.

Short term [tonight through Thursday]
The anomalously strong 500 mb ridge, currently over the northeast
conus, will be replaced by a progressive, amplifying trough by
Thursday. The weak upper low which has been cut off from the mid
latitude westerlies near or over our forecast area the past
several days will continue to meander across the northeast gulf
of mexico. However, this feature is so weak that it's unlikely to
enhance the local rain chances. At the surface, a cold front,
currently over the central plains, will extend from coastal nc
through northeast tx by late Thursday afternoon.

With little to no synoptic scale forcing for ascent, any deep moist
convection in our forecast area would have to come via mesoscale
forcing. However, the 1000-700 mb mean wind will be from the north,
keeping the northwest fl sea breeze front pinned at the coast for
much of each day. Perhaps most importantly, however, will be the
poor thermodynamics. Dry air, especially in the mid to upper
troposphere, coupled with relatively weak lapse rates, will choke
off nearly all storm-scale updrafts. The one exception could be
Thursday afternoon across our eastern zones, where slightly
increasing moisture along the incoming east coast sea breeze front
may support a shower or two. Temperatures will continue above
average for this time of year, with highs in the lower to mid 90s
and lows around 70.

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]
The aforementioned upper trough over the northeast CONUS will reach
peak amplitude Saturday morning, followed by rapid height rises. In
fact, 500 mb heights will once again become anomalously high early
next work week. There is a better consensus among the 00 utc nwp
model solutions than 24 hours ago; indicating that there will be no
cold front passage for our forecast area... Not even a wind shift.

Instead, a rather strong surface ridge will build southward along
the eastern CONUS coast... A common occurrence this time of year.

The upper low which has been meandering around our region the past
several days will move slowly southeast, helping to deflect deep
layer moisture to our east on Friday and Saturday. The limited
moisture and lack of focused large scale ascent across our area
will limit pops to 30% or less this weekend, mainly across our
eastern and southern zones. Despite the lack of a cold front,
temperatures will cool slightly this weekend, returning to values
much closer to climo, with lows generally in the 60s and highs in
the mid 80s. A freshening breeze on Sunday and Monday will make it
feel a little more pleasant.

Marine
Light winds and low seas will persist into Saturday as the pressure
pattern remains very weak. However, northeast winds will likely
increase Saturday night and Sunday as a strong high pressure ridge
builds south along the u.S. East coast.

Fire weather
Low dispersion indices below 20 in the afternoon are possible in
walton county and the immediate panhandle coast. Otherwise no fire
weather concerns.

Hydrology
Organized heavy rain is not expected across our forecast area this
week, and our local rivers were below flood stage.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 70 93 70 93 71 0 0 0 10 0
panama city 72 89 73 90 74 10 0 0 10 0
dothan 68 92 69 92 70 0 0 0 10 0
albany 68 93 69 93 71 0 0 0 10 0
valdosta 68 92 69 92 70 0 0 0 10 10
cross city 69 92 71 92 71 0 0 0 10 0
apalachicola 72 89 73 89 74 10 0 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Fieux
short term... Mcd
long term... Fournier
aviation... Fieux
marine... Mcd
fire weather... Fournier
hydrology... Mcd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 7 mi62 min SSW 7 G 8.9 82°F 1013.3 hPa (-0.5)
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 46 mi128 min SE 4.1 G 7 82°F 1013.5 hPa
CDRF1 - Cedar Key, FL 49 mi62 min S 4.1 G 5.1 82°F 1013.8 hPa (-0.7)69°F

Wind History for Cedar Key, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cross City Airport, FL24 mi67 minN 510.00 miFair90°F67°F48%1014.9 hPa
Perry-Foley, Perry-Foley Airport, FL24 mi67 minN 310.00 miFair90°F67°F49%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from 40J (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN5CalmN3N5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3CalmNE5Calm
1 day agoNE7NE3SE3NE7E3CalmCalmCalmCalmE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmE3CalmNE3CalmCalm
2 days agoNE7NE6NE5E7CalmN3N5NE4CalmNE3CalmN3NE3NE4NE3NE3CalmCalmNE4NE5NE8E8E5E6

Tide / Current Tables for Fishermans Rest, Florida
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Fishermans Rest
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:16 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:03 PM EDT     2.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:58 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.62.12.52.93.13.12.82.421.51.10.90.80.91.31.72.22.52.72.62.321.7

Tide / Current Tables for Steinhatchee River ent., Deadman Bay, Florida
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Steinhatchee River ent.
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:14 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:53 PM EDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:06 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:01 PM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.72.12.633.13.12.82.521.61.20.90.811.31.82.22.62.72.62.42.11.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.