Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glencoe, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:12PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 3:18 AM CST (09:18 UTC) Moonrise 12:19PMMoonset 11:15PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 841 Pm Cst Tue Nov 13 2018
Rest of tonight..North winds around 15 knots. Bay waters rough.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Thursday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Friday..Northeast winds up to 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth.
Friday night..Southeast winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Sunday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 841 Pm Cst Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis.. A cold high pressure system over the southern plains will continue to build into the coastal waters with strong and gusty northerly winds through the night. However winds will gradually weaken early Wednesday as the high advances closer to the region. Winds will then swing around to a southerly direction by late in the period as the high moves east of the area.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glencoe, LA
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location: 29.73, -91.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 140539
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1139 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018

Discussion
For the 11 14 18 0600 utc TAF package.

Aviation
Kbpt has improved toVFR over the past 90 min or so, a little
behind the previous forecast, but generally on schedule. Remaining
sites currently sit at MVFR, with ifr periodically reported at the
acadiana sites. Some generally minor adjustments were made from
the previous forecast based on observational trends and latest
guidance, mostly to adjust the time of anticipated improvement to
vfr. Inserted tempo ifr at the acadiana sites with CIGS possibly
dipping below 1 kft again during the overnight early morning
period.

13

Prev discussion issued 1049 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018
update...

added snow flurries and very light slight to the weather grid for
portions of upper southeast texas and central louisiana for the
next few hours. Returns showing up on the klch and kpoe radar over
upper southeast texas moving eastward across the sabine. Have
reports that some of this precipitation is reaching the ground as
snow flurries. Looks like some energy moving around the vort max
over the ARKLATEX is helping to initiate this. Expect this area of
precip to move across upper southeast texas into central
louisiana for the next few hours. Laps analysis favors the very
light precipitation to fall as a mix of snow flurries and very
light sleet pellets. Conditions at ground level do not favor any
accumulation with precipitation likely evaporating or melting as
it reaches the surface.

Rua
prev discussion... Issued 910 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018
update...

freeze warning will remain as is for time and locations.

Temperatures from now through 4 am were bumped up a little based
on current observations and when the potential for clearing will
take place. Gale warning was dropped from the outer waters as
observations do not show frequent gusts at or above gale force.

Wind and wind gusts grids, along with the hazard grid was updated
to reflect this.

Rua
discussion...

to clear or not to clear, that is the question of the night. Water
vapor imagery shows a short wave centered over the ARKLATEX with
an upper trough trailing down into deep texas, with this system
moving off to the northeast. With moist southwest flow ahead of
this feature, clouds are continuing to stream across the forecast
area, and this has allowed temperatures to drop just a degree or
two, or hold steady since sunset. As the short wave moves off to
the northeast, a more dry and subsident air mass is noted and
clearing line according to IR imagery is slowly moving toward the
forecast area.

At this point, it looks like just locations west of the sabine
will see any significant clearing before sunrise, and that for
just an hour or two, and these areas will have the best shot at
seeing freezing temperatures for tonight into early Wednesday
morning. Will still keep the freeze warning as it is currently
constructed, as some locations east of the sabine have
temperatures hovering in the mid 30s, so will not take much
clearing to allow these temperatures to reach the freezing mark,
although the duration will be for a very short period. Looks like
a much better chance of seeing freeze warning conditions for most
locations on Wednesday night into Thursday morning as skies
should be clear with light winds.

Best isentropic lift ahead of the short wave has moved east of the
forecast area, and only locations that may see any light rain or
sprinkles will be the lower atchafalaya basin until midnight.

Rua
prev discussion... Issued 550 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018
discussion...

for the 11 14 18 0000 utc TAF package.

Aviation...

MVFR CIGS all terminals early this evening as region remains
shrouded in post-frontal stratus. These clouds are forecast to
only gradually erode, with improving CIGS expected at kbpt by mid
evening and klch closer to midnight. Kaex and the acadiana
terminals are expected to remain MVFR through early afternoon
wed. North winds are also gradually subsiding, and while they will
remain elevated around 10kt or so through the overnight period,
gusts should settle down mid to late evening. Wind speeds and gusts
will pick up again tomorrow afternoon at the coastal sites, but
are not expected to be as strong as they were today.

13
prev discussion... Issued 325 pm cst Tue nov 13 2018
discussion...

sfc analysis shows our departing cold now over the ERN gulf, with
cold high pressure centered from the rockies to the SRN plains now
building sewd toward the forecast area. Meanwhile water vapor
imagery shows troffing in place from the great lakes through the
plains to cntl tx and the tx big bend. Good overrunning is
occurring, although limited moisture above h8 is limiting precip
at this time... What is falling though is doing so in a mixed form
today with numerous reports of sleet or very light snow coming in
from sern tx and swrn w-cntl la. Sfc obs also showing very cool
temps in place with limited heating today... Much of the area has
remained in the upper 30s under dense cloud cover and ongoing caa.

Elevated nrly winds with a good gradient in place as well as the
cold air has made it feel like it's in the lower mid 30s for most
of us.

For the remainder of the afternoon, the small area of precip
associated with overrunning perhaps a mid-level speed MAX rounding
the trof should continue pushing ewd across the remainder of the
forecast area. As this precip is moving into the warmest portion
of our area, the frozen precip should be about at an end for the
day. As we slide into the evening, dry conditions should prevail
for the remainder of the night although cloud cover is now progged
to linger for all but maybe the extreme WRN zones where some
clearing could begin just prior to sunrise. Latest model
temperatures guidance came in 1-3 degrees warmer than earlier
runs, but given that temps have remained below progged levels
today, elected to go below guidance for tonight... Resulting in
mins across the nwrn 1 2 of the area running 30-32f. Toyed with
the idea of just continuing the inherited freeze watch due to
reasonable uncertainty with tonight's temps, but in the end
thought it prudent to upgrade it to a warning. Across the
remainder of the forecast area, mins in the mid 30s expected.

Combo of the dry nwrly flow behind the trof axis swinging ewd and
the sfc high building sewd will lead to a dry mostly sunny cool
Wednesday for most of the area. Suspect we could see a sprinkle or
two across the northern extremes during the late morning afternoon
as the a low is progged to cut off before the best moisture
departs... Rain chances look low enough for now to preclude
inclusion in the grids zones. Temps will feel downright balmy
after today with maxes progged in the mid upper 40s.

As the core of the sfc high settles on top of us by tomorrow
night, expect the coldest weather of the season to descend upon us
Thursday morning. Current forecast mins are advertised in the
upper 20s across the NRN 1 2 of the area... 30-35 remainder except
a little warmer immediate coast. For now, no hard freeze is
anticipated, although freeze warnings will likely be needed for
portions of acadiana not included in tonight's warning... Stay
tuned.

Dry weather with moderating temps is then expected for the
remainder of the work week and on into the weekend as the sfc high
slips east of the area and a more zonal flow develops aloft. Our
next weather maker comes late in the weekend and early next week
as the combo of a pacific storm system crossing NRN mexico and a
weak front diving swd through the mississippi valley impact our
region.

Marine...

extended the gale warning for the outer coastal waters through
midnight tonight, mainly for the continued likelihood of gusts to
gale force. Otherwise winds should begin slowly relaxing tonight
as the high builds sewd toward the region, gradually relaxing the
gradient. Thereafter, no flags are anticipated on the waters
through the remainder of the period as high pressure remains in
control.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 31 44 27 52 10 10 0 0
lch 34 49 31 54 10 0 0 0
lft 35 47 30 52 10 10 0 0
bpt 33 49 32 54 10 0 0 0

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... Freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am cst Wednesday for laz027>032-
041.

Tx... Freeze warning from 3 am to 9 am cst Wednesday for txz180-201-
215-216-259>262.

Gm... Small craft advisory until noon cst Wednesday for gmz470-472-475.

Small craft advisory until 6 am cst Wednesday for gmz450-452-455.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 26 mi31 min NNW 6 G 11 39°F 58°F1027.6 hPa
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 27 mi79 min 8 G 16 40°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 28 mi31 min NW 8.9 G 15 40°F 56°F1027.3 hPa
EINL1 30 mi31 min N 14 G 17 40°F 51°F1026.8 hPa38°F
FRWL1 - 8766072 - Fresh Water Canal Locks, LA 33 mi31 min NNW 9.9 G 16 39°F 54°F1028.3 hPa

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Salt Point, LA16 mi2.4 hrsNNW 8 G 16 mi0°F0°F%1027.5 hPa
Patterson Memorial, LA21 mi23 minN 810.00 miOvercast39°F36°F89%1027.9 hPa
Acadiana Regional Airport, LA22 mi26 minN 1110.00 miOvercast39°F32°F76%1027.9 hPa

Wind History from P92 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--N9
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1 day ago644553E5E7SE5--------------4----N9
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G19
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmNE344545Calm4Calm4----3NE43------5----

Tide / Current Tables for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:16 AM CST     1.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:18 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:51 PM CST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.61.51.51.51.41.41.31.31.21.21.110.80.60.50.40.40.40.50.60.811.2

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:41 AM CST     1.67 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:19 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:07 PM CST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.71.61.61.61.51.51.41.41.31.31.210.90.70.50.40.40.40.50.70.91.21.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.