Sunday, October22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glencoe, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:29PM Sunday October 22, 2017 2:22 PM CDT (19:22 UTC) Moonrise 8:40AMMoonset 7:44PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 1115 Am Cdt Sun Oct 22 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect through Monday evening...
Rest of today..South winds around 10 knots becoming north 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters a light chop increasing to very rough in the afternoon. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Tuesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest after midnight. Bay waters a light chop decreasing to smooth after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 1115 Am Cdt Sun Oct 22 2017
Synopsis.. Onshore flow will shift offshore during the afternoon as a cold front crosses the region. Widespread showers and Thunderstorms can be expected along and ahead of the front today. Offshore flow will strengthen tonight and continue into Monday as cooler and drier air moves into the area, and exercise caution conditions are expected. A secondary front will move across the coastal waters by Tuesday, further increasing the winds and seas and possibly requiring small craft advisories Tuesday into Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glencoe, LA
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location: 29.73, -91.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 221735
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1235 pm cdt Sun oct 22 2017

Discussion
18z tafs

Aviation
Still a good bit of light to moderate rain overrunning the frontal
boundary that moved through the area this morning. The trailing
edge of this precipitation is presently moving into southeast
texas and activity will come to an end from west to east through
the afternoon. CIGS should remainVFR through the forecast
period.

Winds will diminish overnight with high clouds lingering over the
area. Expect winds to pick back up once again Monday as the
pressure gradient will remain tight over the region.

Jones

Prev discussion issued 1136 am cdt Sun oct 22 2017
discussion...

updated just about every forecast element for this morning and
early afternoon for timing of shra tsra, temperatures, dewpoint,
and winds for marine areas, see below. Behind the initial line of
shra iso tsra, light to moderate shra continues for most of the
region, expecting to diminish from west to east this afternoon
into early evening.

Dml
marine...

upgraded to SCA for all 0-60nm zones through Monday afternoon for a
combination of the strong gradient northerly winds behind the line
of shra iso tsra this morning and early afternoon, and the cold
front to follow later this afternoon with moderate northerly
winds expected to resume later this evening and Monday.

Prev discussion... Issued 657 am cdt Sun oct 22 2017
discussion...

for the 10 22 17 1200 utc TAF package.

Aviation...

band of pre-frontal showers and thunderstorms headed quickly to
the SE are nearing central la, with more isolated to scattered
convective cells farther to the south moving generally toward the
ne. Based onset of convective line at each terminal on radar
trends, though obviously there is greater uncertainty regarding
timing and integrity of the convection at the coastal terminals,
especially klft kara. North wind gusts up to around 30 knots are
possible with the passage of the band, along with a short period
of visibility reducing heavy rain and lower cigs. Conditions
behind the line are a bit more variable, with at least a brief
period ofVFR cigs, followed perhaps by a more extended period of
MVFR or even ifr CIGS just ahead of and behind the actual front.

Focus of this issuance was the timing and conditions primarily
associated with the pre-frontal band of convection, so the
potential for these lower CIGS is not currently reflected in the
forecasts.VFR is expected to prevail all sites by this evening.

13
prev discussion... Issued 455 am cdt Sun oct 22 2017
synopsis...

a persistent area of thunderstorms has been occurring acrs
portions of acadiana since last evening, with periods of intense
rainfall since the beginning of this shift (05z). During this
time, rainfall amounts of four to six inches have fallen acrs
parts of iberia, saint mary and saint martin parishes, prompting
the issuance of flash flood warnings for these areas. This area
is within a zone of high moisture (precip water around 1.9 inches
per gps-tpw), and focused along an area of enhanced low level
convergence, with lift augmented by shortwave energy over the
area.

Meanwhile, a large band of thunderstorms extends from near little
rock southwest towards tyler and into central tx near waco. This
band is associated with a cold front that is progressing quickly
southeast early this morning.

24
discussion...

recent hrrr guidance suggests the cluster of storms over acadiana
will diminish, with activity lifting northeast early this morning.

However, recent radar trends have indicated otherwise with
additional storms developing further southwest over the coastal
waters. Will continue to monitor this activity the next few hours,
as a flash flood watch may be needed, especially with additional
convection is expected later today with the passage of the cold
front.

The line of storms to the northwest is expected to reach the
northwestern CWA around 12z, and quickly cross the area this
morning, reaching the acadiana region by early aftn. This
activity will be associated with a pre-frontal trough, with the
actual front lagging by about 3 to 4 hours. Additional showers
could accompany the front as it moves through the region during
the aftn. The overall risk of severe weather still appears minimal
with weak shear and modest cape, but a slight increase in diurnal
instability could result in an isolated storm or two capable of
producing strong to marginally severe wind gusts or small hail,
especially acrs eastern portions of the area. Heavy rainfall will
also be possible within some of the storms. This is not expected
to pose any problems acrs much of the area, especially with the
rather quick progression of storms from west to east. However,
minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas acrs acadiana
will be possible due to saturated conditions from overnight
storms.

By this evening, drier northwesterly flow will develop aloft as
an upper trough moves over the lower ms valley, bringing an end
to the rain with skies expected to clear from west to east
overnight. Cooler air will spread into the area, with lows
falling into the 50s tonight, and highs in the 70s Monday aftn.

The cool and dry weather will get an additional boost late Monday
into early Tuesday as a second front moves through the area. With
dry air over the area (precip water will be well below one inch),
no rainfall is expected with the front, but it will bring even
cooler temperatures to the area. By Wednesday morning lows are
expected to fall into the 40s acrs much of the area, and into the
upper 40s lower 50s on Thursday. Aftn highs from Tuesday through
Thursday are expected to be in the 70s along with abundant
sunshine.

Sfc high pres will quickly cross the region Thursday into Friday,
resulting in a slight warmup by Friday. Model guidance continues
to advertise another front toward the end of the week, but still
with little agreement on timing. Continued to go with superblend
guidance, which leans toward a FROPA during the day Friday
followed by cooler temperatures to start the weekend.

24
marine...

onshore flow today will shift offshore during the aftn as a cold
front crosses the region. Widespread showers and tstms can be
expected along and ahead of the front today. Offshore flow will
strengthen tonight and continue into Monday as cooler and drier
air moves into the area, and this has prompted exercise caution
headlines for these periods of the coastal waters fcst.

A secondary front will move acrs the coastal waters late Monday
night into early Tuesday, reinforcing the strong offshore flow
through midweek. Winds and seas are expected to increase further
with the passage of this front, and small craft advisories may be
required from Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds will diminish late
Wednesday as high pres becomes centered over the northwest gulf of
mexico, with onshore flow returning by Thursday.

24

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 52 75 50 73 10 0 0 0
lch 57 77 54 75 10 0 0 0
lft 57 76 52 74 20 0 0 0
bpt 56 78 54 76 10 0 0 0

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt Monday for gmz450-452-455-
470-472-475.

Small craft exercise caution through Monday evening for gmz430-
432-435.

Aviation... 66


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 26 mi52 min NNW 12 G 18 67°F 76°F1019.3 hPa
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 27 mi142 min 26 G 35 64°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 28 mi52 min NW 12 G 20 67°F 77°F1019.1 hPa
EINL1 30 mi52 min N 29 G 36 68°F 76°F1018.3 hPa59°F
FRWL1 - 8766072 - Fresh Water Canal Locks, LA 33 mi52 min NE 8 G 13 62°F 76°F1019.7 hPa
KSCF 43 mi47 min N 17 G 26 70°F 59°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Salt Point, LA16 mi29 minN 7 G 17 mi67°F57°F73%1018.2 hPa
Patterson Memorial, LA21 mi26 minN 910.00 miOvercast67°F57°F73%1018.9 hPa
Acadiana Regional Airport, LA22 mi29 minNNE 810.00 miOvercast65°F57°F76%1018.7 hPa

Wind History from P92 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE9SE9SE8SE8SE8SE8SE5E5SE75E534SE6SE6Calm33E3--N12
G18
N10
G22
N7
G17
1 day agoSE5SE7SE4SE3E3Calm35SE7E7444534433E5SE3SE9SE9SE6
G15
2 days agoSE643E4SE63E35433443Calm334444SE7SE7SE5

Tide / Current Tables for Cote Blanche Island, West Cote Blanche Bay, Louisiana
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Cote Blanche Island
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:37 AM CDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM CDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:40 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:26 PM CDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:44 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:32 PM CDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.41.41.41.41.41.51.51.51.41.20.90.70.50.40.40.50.70.91.21.41.61.71.7

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:02 AM CDT     1.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:36 AM CDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:13 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:40 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:45 PM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:44 PM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:56 PM CDT     1.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.61.51.51.51.61.71.71.61.51.310.80.60.50.40.50.711.31.61.81.91.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.