Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Berwick, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:08PM Monday June 26, 2017 2:07 PM CDT (19:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:53AMMoonset 9:37PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 940 Am Cdt Mon Jun 26 2017
Rest of today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 940 Am Cdt Mon Jun 26 2017
Synopsis.. Light northeast to east winds are expected through Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary meanders near the coast. The weak front, combined with deep moisture, will allow for scattered showers and Thunderstorms through midweek. High pressure settling east of the area will provide a more predominate southeast flow Tuesday night into Wednesday, with winds and seas increasing by the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Berwick, LA
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location: 29.74, -91.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 261734
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1234 pm cdt Mon jun 26 2017

Discussion
18z tafs

Aviation
A frontal boundary is bisecting the region this afternoon with
relatively drier air north of the i-10 corridor and very moist air
along and south of said corridor. Logic and short range model
guidance indicate the greatest likelihood for afternoon
thunderstorm development will be along the coast, gradually moving
inland during the early evening before dissipating by late
evening.VFR conditions to prevail overnight and through the am
hours Tuesday.

Jones

Prev discussion issued 953 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017
discussion...

weather map continues to show frontal boundary across the coastal
waters. Drier air across the region with dewpts in the lower to
mid 60s north of i-10 with lower 70s south of i-10 to the coast. Radar
shows only isolated showers across the coastal waters. Latest hrrr
guidance confirms ongoing forecast for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing along and south of the i-10
corridor to the coast by the afternoon hours. No updates needed at
this time.

Dml
prev discussion... Issued 636 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017
discussion...

for the 6 26 17 1200 utc TAF package.

Aviation...

vfr prevailing all sites early this morning, with mainly mid high
level cloud cover across the region while areas of rain along
with isolated sh TS are over the coastal waters. Mstr pooled
along S of i-10 corridor expected to yield a mid late morning cu
field along with isolated scattered convection at the coastal
terminals. Have continued with the vicinity mention, but opted for
vcts rather than vcsh.VFR is otherwise expected to prevail
through the period amid light NE sfc winds.

13
prev discussion... Issued 446 am cdt Mon jun 26 2017
synopsis...

recent water vapor imagery and upper air analysis show a vort max
moving over the western great lakes, embedded within a deeper
trough that covers much of the eastern conus. At the sfc, a nearly
stationary weak frontal boundary extends along or just off the
coast. Klch 88d shows sctd showers and tstms developing over the
coastal waters in the vicinity of the boundary early this morning.

While temperatures haven't changed much from 24 hours ago,
evidence of some drier air is noted in observed dewpoints,
especially over central and south central la where TD values have
fallen into the upper 60s. This is quite a pleasant change from
the upper 70s near 80 degree values of the last several days.

Experimental GOES 16 tpw and 00z soundings acrs the region
indicate drier air north and northeast of the area where precip
water has fallen to around and inch while deeper moisture remains
entrenched near the coast, where values of 2 inches or greater
are seen.

24
discussion...

the slightly drier airmass over central la will last through
tonight before dewpoints begin to creep back up on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, a chc for showers and tstms will continue mainly for
locations along and south of i-10, where deeper moisture interacts
with the quasi-stationary front.

Winds will begin to shift back toward the southeast during the day
Tuesday as sfc high pres over the midwest slides toward the
southeast coast. South to southeast winds will then persist
through the remainder of the period as the sfc high ridges
westward along the gulf coast. Winds will strengthen some from
Wednesday through Friday as pressures lower acrs western tx ok.

Aloft, the pattern over the CONUS will dampen some by midweek
once the trough exits off the east coast. A weakness will remain
over the northwest gulf for a few days, with shower and TSTM chcs
enhanced for Wednesday into Thursday as deeper tropical moisture
spreads back northward over the region, aided by southeasterly
flow on the western flank of the subtropical ridge nudging into
the eastern and central gulf. The increase in shower
activity cloudiness will keep aftn temperatures in the middle to
upper 80s, a little below normal.

By the end of the week, the subtropical ridge will build further
west, allowing for a more typical summertime pattern to return.

Warm and muggy conditions are expected with aftn temperatures
around 90 degrees and aftn convection bcmg more isltd to widely
sctd.

24
marine...

generally light east to northeast winds are expected through
Tuesday as the weak frontal boundary meanders over the northwest
gulf. Shower and thunderstorm chances will remain abv normal
(from 30 to 50 percent) as deep moisture interacts with the front.

Winds and seas will be locally higher near tstms.

Tuesday night into Wednesday, winds will return to the southeast
as sfc high pres becomes re-established east of the area. Winds
and seas will increase from Wednesday through Friday as the pres
gradient tightens between the high to the east and lower pres over
western tx and ok. Exercise caution to low end advisory
conditions will be possible, especially over the outer coastal
waters Thursday Friday.

24

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 67 89 69 89 10 20 10 30
lch 72 88 73 88 20 40 20 50
lft 71 87 71 88 20 30 10 50
bpt 72 88 74 88 20 40 30 50

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 66


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 5 mi50 min NE 4.1 G 8.9 84°F 82°F1018.4 hPa
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 21 mi50 min E 5.1 G 8.9 84°F 83°F1018 hPa
EINL1 27 mi50 min ESE 9.9 G 11 83°F 82°F1017.8 hPa75°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 43 mi50 min E 1.9 G 5.1 86°F 84°F1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA5 mi72 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy86°F75°F72%1018.9 hPa
Salt Point, LA20 mi75 minVar 5 mi85°F73°F70%1018 hPa

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE16SE8
G24
W5CalmNE3E3CalmNE3N5NE6NE4NE4NE5NE5NE5NE4E6E9E9E7E44E4
1 day agoSW9SW6W8N16
G20
E8E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3NE4NE3NE5NW5N7N8N8NE5
2 days agoSW13
G20
S10SW12S13S6S5S6S3S5S4S5S5S5CalmCalmNE3CalmS5SW5S3S6SW6S5SW10

Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake, Louisiana
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Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake
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Mon -- 02:25 AM CDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:53 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:51 AM CDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:04 PM CDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:48 PM CDT     0.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:37 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.2-00.20.40.70.91110.90.80.80.70.70.70.70.70.60.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:54 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:11 AM CDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:06 PM CDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:42 PM CDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:36 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.6-0.5-0.300.40.81.11.41.61.61.61.41.31.21.21.21.31.31.31.20.90.50.1-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.