Tuesday, August22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Berwick, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 7:36PM Tuesday August 22, 2017 7:47 PM CDT (00:47 UTC) Moonrise 6:25AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 351 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 22 2017
Tonight..South winds up to 5 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Wednesday..North winds up to 5 knots becoming east around 5 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..South winds up to 5 knots becoming north after midnight. Bay waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 351 Pm Cdt Tue Aug 22 2017
Synopsis.. Light southeast winds and low seas will continue through Wednesday as surface high pressure ridges west across the gulf states. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms are expected each afternoon. The high is forecast to breakdown late Wednesday as the region is squeezed between an approaching cold front to the north and what is likely to be a regenerated harvey over the southern gulf of mexico. Elevated winds and seas are expected to begin affecting the coastal waters on Friday, and continue through the weekend. The magnitude of these elevated winds and seas, and their duration, will depend on the eventual track and strength of the system. At this time, there is a broad consensus for the tropical cyclone to come ashore the lower to middle texas coast late Friday, then subsequently slow down over south central texas over the weekend before turning eastward early next week. Should this come to fruition, a prolonged period of rainfall, gusty onshore flow, and rough seas will result.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Berwick, LA
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location: 29.74, -91.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 222323
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
623 pm cdt Tue aug 22 2017

Aviation Showers and storms continue to decrease across the
area this evening, however patchy -ra will remain in place for the
next hour or two. Additional storms are expected tomorrow as
diurnal heating occurs. MostlyVFR conditions are still expected.

Prev discussion issued 446 pm cdt Tue aug 22 2017
discussion...

latest water vapor satellite imagery showed the upper low over the
nw gulf starting to elongate weaken, while a robust upper trof
swings into the NE conus, eroding the SE CONUS ridge. To the
south, the remnants of harvey are just beginning to exit the nw
yucatan peninsula and enter the southern gulf.

Radar imagery continues to show scattered showers and
thunderstorms ongoing over a good part of louisiana along and
north of i-10. Though aided by the upper low, this activity is
largely driven by diurnal instability, and should come to an end
over the next few hours. After a relatively quiet overnight
period, another day of scattered showers and thunderstorms is on
tap for tomorrow as the weak upper low trof remains over the nw
gulf. In addition, by late tomorrow, the trof digging into the
ern CONUS will send a weak frontal boundary toward and eventually
into the forecast area, providing an additional focus for shower
and thunderstorm development that will likely persist Wed night
and on into thu.

Meanwhile, to the south, the remnants of harvey are expected to
regenerate into a tropical cyclone by tomorrow, with the system
subsequently strengthening and tracking twd the nw. Current model
consensus is for the system to come ashore the lower to middle tx
coast region late fri. An inverted trof axis extending N of
harvey, along with an influx of associated tropical moisture, will
begin to result in widespread rainfall spreading into the area on
fri, which could be the onset of a significant rainfall event for
the area pending the eventual strength track of the system. While
model divergence increases post-landfall, there is broad consensus
for a near stall or at least slow nwd movement over S central tx
through the weekend, with a subsequent ejection ewd early next
week. The gridded forecast was constructed based on this consensus,
and thus does not represent either the worst or best case scenario
for the area.

Based on this consensus, a prolonged and potentially heavy
rainfall event is forecast over the weekend and into early next
week. Event total 6 to 8 inches of rainfall are possible over e
tx and parts of SW la, with 4 to 6 inches over central and south
central la. In addition, due to the persistent period of moderate
to potentially strong onshore flow, a prolonged period of coastal
flooding is possible.

It cannot be stressed strongly enough that while confidence has
increased since this time yesterday, there remains a high degree
of uncertainty regarding the eventual path and strength of this
system, and thus its resultant impacts. Please stay tuned to
subsequent forecasts from this office and the nhc.

13
marine...

light southeast winds and low seas will continue through
Wednesday as surface high pressure ridges west across the gulf
states. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon. The high is forecast to breakdown late Wednesday as
the region is squeezed between an approaching cold front to the
north and what is likely to be a regenerated harvey over the
southern gulf of mexico. Elevated winds and seas are expected to
begin affecting the coastal waters on Friday, and continue through
the weekend. The magnitude of these elevated winds and seas, and
their duration, will depend on the eventual track and strength of
the system. At this time, there is a broad consensus for the
tropical cyclone to come ashore the lower to middle texas coast
late Friday, then subsequently slow down over south central texas
over the weekend before turning eastward early next week. Should
this come to fruition, a prolonged period of rainfall, gusty
onshore flow, and rough seas will result.

13

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 73 91 73 88 10 50 30 40
lch 77 92 77 90 10 40 30 50
lft 77 92 76 90 10 40 30 50
bpt 75 91 75 89 10 40 20 40

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... None.

Aviation... 05


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 5 mi48 min N 1.9 G 4.1 75°F 86°F1016.1 hPa (-1.6)
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 21 mi48 min Calm G 0 79°F 87°F1015.8 hPa (-1.0)
EINL1 27 mi48 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 82°F 86°F1015.4 hPa (-1.1)73°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 43 mi48 min ESE 1 G 1.9 89°F 89°F1015.9 hPa (-1.1)
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 49 mi108 min 8 G 9.9 83°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA5 mi52 minN 010.00 miFair77°F73°F90%1016.4 hPa
Salt Point, LA20 mi55 minN 0 mi79°F73°F82%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE5NE4NE3NE3NE4------NE4NE4NE3E4NE5E65NE5E8S9W5N9E7NE3Calm
1 day agoE3CalmCalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmNE6NE6NE7E6NE6E7NE45E6E11CalmNE5
2 days agoNE3W3CalmNW3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalm--NE3E3CalmNE3E4NE4E5E63E5NE5S10
G17
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Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake, Louisiana
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Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:34 AM CDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:36 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:25 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:54 AM CDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:20 PM CDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:40 PM CDT     0.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0.1-0.1-00.10.30.50.70.80.90.80.70.60.50.50.50.50.60.70.70.70.70.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 06:37 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:13 AM CDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:26 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:52 AM CDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:32 PM CDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:38 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:29 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:02 PM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.50.81.11.31.51.61.51.31.11.11.11.21.31.41.41.51.51.30.90.50.20.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.