Saturday, December16, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Berwick, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:08PM Saturday December 16, 2017 8:59 AM CST (14:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:20AMMoonset 4:18PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 358 Am Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Slight chance of rain showers in the evening. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Rain showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Rain showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Rain showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds up to 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..Southeast winds around 5 knots. Bay waters smooth. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Rain showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 358 Am Cst Sat Dec 16 2017
Synopsis.. An upper trough will approach the area late Saturday into Sunday resulting in widespread showers and Thunderstorms. East and then southeast winds are forecast to increase as an associated weak area of low pressure develops and tracks northeast along the texas coast into the sabine river valley. The south winds will aid in transporting very moist air northward atop relatively cool nearshore shelf waters, so there is some potential for marine fog starting late Saturday night and possibly persisting for a few days. A second upper trough follows Monday keeping rain chances elevated for the early part of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Berwick, LA
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location: 29.74, -91.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 161139
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
539 am cst Sat dec 16 2017

Aviation
Some fog being noted on observations around the region this am.

Clouds have been around 080 to 100 over most of SE tx and SRN la
this am. The approach of the sfc low and upper lvl trof will see
winds increasing and ceiling falling thru the day and into the
overnight hours. Areas of rain and showers twrds the late aftn
into the eve hrs. Tstms move into the mix twrds midnight as the
sfc low and warm front lifts into SRN la around midnight. Ceilings
xpcd to drop to MVFR ifr drg the eve hrs W lifr ifr during the
overnight hours.

Prev discussion issued 412 am cst Sat dec 16 2017
discussion...

our Saturday will begin on the chilly side with temperatures
north of the i-10 corridor presently in the low to mid 30's.

Some patchy fog is also being observed across southeast texas and
into central louisiana this morning the likes of which may be a
bit slower to dissipate than normal due to overcast skies.

By this evening, the well forecast upper trough over mexico and
its developing surface low across the western gulf will begin to
spread its influence across southeast texas bringing widespread
showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to the region before
spreading into southwest louisiana overnight. Forecast soundings
continue to indicate a very moist airmass associated with this
system with forecast precipitable water values as high as 1.7
inches making it a pretty efficient rain producer. My forecast
rainfall totals which were produced using a combination of wpc's
official forecast and tweaks from other model guidance is going to
indicate around an inch for the Saturday night through Sunday
afternoon timeframe. Of course locally higher amounts can be
expected. On the severe side of things, SPC has redrawn their
marginal risk area to once again include portions of acadiana.

Forecast soundings indicate that overall shear Sunday will be very
favorable. The limiting factor continues to be the distinct lack
of instability. If there is going to be anything in the way of
severe weather Sunday, it will likely come during the maximum
heating of early to mid afternoon. Even so, the overall threat
remains very low.

The upper trough quickly ejects off to the north Sunday, but
leaves a channel of very moist air in its wake which will quickly
begin to be utilized by a second upper trough swinging east out of
california. Thus, while there may be a bit of a break in the
precipitation Sunday afternoon, activity is expected to quickly
pick back up again Sunday night into Monday. Even more atmospheric
moisture is expected to be available to this system with
precipitable water values Monday climbing to as high as 1.8
inches. Thus, widespread amounts of around an inch with locally
higher amounts will be possible once again Monday. In addition to
the increased moisture, forecast guidance is indicating more
instability with this system and while shear values wont be as
favorable for severe weather, there will likely be more
thunderstorms Monday and into Tuesday than will be seen Saturday
night and Sunday. SPC once again hatches acadiana in a marginal
risk for severe weather Monday.

Guidance has come into much better agreement this morning with
regards to the evolution of this trough through midweek with the
euro siding with the GFS solution which swings the trough just
north of the area Wednesday bringing a weak cold front through the
area. The drier airmass behind the front will quickly be overtaken
by yet another upper trough digging south out of the pacific
northwest late Thursday bringing back high rain chances for at
least the early part of the christmas holiday weekend. There
remains considerable uncertainty with regards to this trough and
a potential strong arctic front that the euro plows through the
area clearing the rain out in time for christmas while the gfs
brings the front through, but keeps abundant moisture in place
over the area courtesy of yet another trough to the west. Early
thinking is that the GFS is overdoing the moisture, but this far
out that's little more than a hunch. With christmas day still
beyond our day 8 forecast, there's plenty of time to sort that
out.

My forecast rainfall totals for the series of events beginning
this evening through early Thursday are between 3 and 4 inches
areawide with local amounts of up to 8 inches possible in some
locations.

Jones
marine...

an upper trough will approach the area late Saturday into Sunday
resulting in widespread showers and thunderstorms. East and then
southeast winds are forecast to increase as an associated weak
area of low pressure develops and tracks northeast along the
texas coast into the sabine river valley. The south winds will
aid in transporting very moist air northward atop relatively cool
nearshore shelf waters, so there is some potential for marine fog
starting late Saturday night and possibly persisting for a few
days. A second upper trough follows Monday keeping rain chances
elevated for the early part of next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 57 48 68 56 10 100 50 40
lch 58 55 72 60 10 100 50 50
lft 59 55 72 62 10 80 90 50
bpt 58 54 71 60 10 90 30 50

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft exercise caution through late tonight for gmz475.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to midnight cst
tonight for gmz470-472.

Small craft exercise caution until 4 pm cst this afternoon for
gmz470-472.

Small craft exercise caution late tonight for gmz470-472.

Small craft exercise caution through late tonight for gmz450-452-
455.

Aviation... 19


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 5 mi47 min NE 6 G 8 46°F 50°F1025.2 hPa
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 21 mi47 min NE 6 G 12 45°F 49°F1024.6 hPa
EINL1 27 mi47 min E 12 G 15 46°F 51°F1024.2 hPa38°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 43 mi41 min NE 2.9 G 8 46°F 50°F1025.9 hPa
MRSL1 - Marsh Island, LA / CSI03 49 mi119 min 13 G 15 46°F

Wind History for Tesoro Marine Terminal, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patterson Memorial, LA5 mi63 minENE 610.00 miOvercast44°F37°F76%1025.4 hPa
Salt Point, LA20 mi66 minVar 3 mi46°F37°F71%1024.5 hPa

Wind History from PTN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N8N9N7N7N7N5N3N4N5N4N3N5NE6NE6NE6N6N4NE5NE4NE5NE7NE6E6
1 day agoCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW6SW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N4N7NE4N5NE3N8N6
2 days agoCalmS6S7SW12
G15
SW10SW9SW10S8SW7S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake, Louisiana
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Stouts Pass At Six Mile Lake
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:29 AM CST     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:15 AM CST     0.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:19 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:53 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:28 AM CST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:18 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:07 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:35 PM CST     0.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.60.60.60.60.50.40.20.1-0-0.1-0.100.10.30.50.70.90.910.90.80.8

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Island, Atchafalaya Bay, Louisiana
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Shell Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:57 AM CST     1.12 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:53 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:17 AM CST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:19 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:08 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:50 PM CST     1.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 09:33 PM CST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.11.110.80.50.1-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.20.50.811.21.31.31.21.11.11.11.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.