Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hunters Creek Village, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 7:37PM Saturday March 25, 2017 6:32 PM CDT (23:32 UTC) Moonrise 4:45AMMoonset 4:20PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 343 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds around 10 knots. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Wednesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy after midnight. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Bay waters smooth.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 343 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. A weak cold front has stalled in the nearshore waters and will drift back inland tonight. Weak onshore winds are expected to return tonight and should gradually strengthen Sunday afternoon. Strong southerly flow should develop Wednesday as another storm system approaches.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hunters Creek Village, TX
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location: 29.76, -95.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 252055
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston/galveston tx
355 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017

Discussion
Expect a brief respite from active weather tomorrow, but the
theme of the week will continue to be a rapid progression of upper
troughs to keep things active. For now, it appears that tomorrow
night/Monday, Wednesday/Thursday, and next weekend are the most
likely timeframes for passing bouts of precip. The first should
have relatively minor impact in our corner of texas, but be sure
to keep an eye on the midweek and late week rounds as we refine
the details, as they could potentially have stronger implications
for the area.

Through Sunday...

satellite and radar show that the cold front has passed into the
gulf, and any remaining showers/storms have withered over the
more stable airmass over the waters. While we can see that a
gulf/bay breeze has kept a boundary present just onshore, the
post-frontal airmass appears to be sufficiently dry/capped to
prevent any cells from popping up this afternoon and evening.

Expect a quiet night and light winds as high pressure drifts over
the area and off to the east, allowing onshore flow to resume by
morning. Model guidance is ambivalent about fog potential tonight.

However, given that the post-frontal airmass is not significantly
drier, and we have wettened soils from last night's rains, we
should have a good moisture pool to draw from. Tack on the clear
skies and calm/light winds, and patchy fog seems a pretty good bet
for much of the area. Right on the coast may stay clearer with
enough wind to mix that surface moisture up, but that would be the
exception in southeast texas. Did also draw in a small patch of
more widespread fog to the east of houston, where this morning's
rains were able to saturate the ground per nasa sport lis data.

Otherwise, look for weather to remain dry tomorrow and for heat to
come roaring back.

Sunday night through Tuesday...

our brief time with upper ridging and surface highs end Sunday,
and another upper trough looks to swing through, introducing some
modest height falls for Sunday night. However, the best moisture
axis looks to curl around to our west and north, and jet streaks
aloft miss us well to the north and south. All told, focus for
active weather tomorrow will be in oklahoma and north texas, while
a weak cold front attached to a surface low moving through
oklahoma may not even make it to our area. All told, have brought
in some low chances for thunder in case we do see rain crop up on
a frontal boundary and/or its remnants, but don't expect serious
concerns. The forecast doesn't even cool temperatures off too much
for the early week.

Wednesday through Friday...

yet another upper trough rolls into the southern plains midweek.

However, this one looks to have more in common with this last
trough, than the upcoming early week trough. This means more
significant height falls and cyclonic vorticity advection into
southeast texas, paired with a more potent - albeit fairly narrow
moisture axis streaming through the area. There's pretty good
agreement amongst the guidance in this general scenario, but
considerably more disagreement about the details. The canadian and
euro are a bit faster and perhaps a bit shallower than the gfs.

Indeed, while certainly bringing a shot of rain, the canadian is
perhaps the least significant of the three. The GFS worryingly
pairs a split jet Wednesday night with 1500-2000 j/kg of cape,
while placing the nose of a 30 knot low level jet into SE texas.

This seems to check a lot of the boxes for severe weather,
particularly with flow from the surface through 700 mb looking
relatively backed. Additionally, though it's focused more to our
northeast, there's a pretty good QPF signal associated with this
as well. The euro shows a less favorable upper jet, is a bit more
veered at 850 and 700, and has higher midlevel heights, which
would limit instability some. Still, it cranks out 1000-1500 j/kg
for most of the area, even pushing 2000 j/kg towards matagorda
bay. This implies a sounding with skinnier cape, and perhaps more
of a heavy rain threat than severe weather. Indeed, Wednesday
evening shows a QPF bullseye roughly along i-45. So, whether
things more closely resemble the euro or the gfs, this
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe is worth keeping an eye on. After
this, expect heights to rebound towards ridging for Friday, but
this is mostly in advance of yet another trough to come...

next weekend...

the trough train continues to roll down the track, with yet
another hit looking to come next weekend. With a couple pops of
precip coming ahead, and at such a long range, don't want to
speculate too much at this point. Have simply gone with temps in
the low 80s, and pops around 30%. For what it's worth, the gfs
drops some real big rains offshore Sunday night, and the euro
shows a bit of a QPF signal too. But at this time it's better to
just keep in mind that the weekend may have some more unsettled
weather, while focusing more on potential at nearer range.

Luchs

Marine
The cold front finally made it off the coast and skies have nearly
cleared. Moisture will return though as winds become onshore tonight
and continue through the coming days. Seas of 4 to 6 feet this
afternoon will continue to diminish but the underlying 2-4 foot
swells will be slower to diminish. Have dropped sca/scec. Winds come
up Sunday afternoon/night and will likely be back into scec
conditions and then flirt with them off and on through Tuesday
night. Gradient tightens dramatically Wednesday as next storm system
approaches and will warrant SCA flags with winds near 20 knots and
seas of 5-8 feet.

45

Preliminary point temps/pops
College station (cll) 57 85 66 84 64 / 10 10 20 10 10
houston (iah) 61 85 68 86 67 / 10 10 10 10 10
galveston (gls) 69 82 71 81 71 / 10 10 10 10 10

Hgx watches/warnings/advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution until 4 pm cdt this
afternoon for the following zones: waters from freeport to
the matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from
high island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

Discussion... 25
aviation/marine... 45


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCHT2 - 8770777 - Manchester, TX 11 mi44 min WSW 5.1 G 7 80°F 74°F1013.2 hPa
LYBT2 20 mi44 min W 6 G 8 80°F 73°F1012.2 hPa
MGPT2 - 8770613 - Morgans Point, TX 26 mi44 min SSE 5.1 G 6 79°F 74°F1013.2 hPa
EPTT2 - 8771013 - Eagle Point, TX 35 mi44 min E 8.9 G 9.9 1013.2 hPa
GRRT2 44 mi44 min SW 11 G 14 74°F 76°F1013.3 hPa
GTOT2 47 mi44 min 75°F 71°F
GNJT2 - 8771341 - Galveston Bay (North Jetty), TX 48 mi44 min S 16 G 19

Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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SE10
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
John Dunn Helistop, TX5 mi57 minWNW 410.00 miFair82°F48°F30%1012.2 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX12 mi39 minWSW 910.00 miA Few Clouds81°F51°F35%1013.3 hPa
Houston, Sugar Land Municipal / Hull Field Airport, TX14 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair80°F54°F41%1013 hPa
Houston Intercontinental Airport, TX16 mi39 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds79°F52°F39%1013 hPa
Houston Southwest Airport, TX18 mi37 minno data10.00 miFair79°F55°F45%1013.2 hPa
Houston / Ellington, TX18 mi42 minWSW 410.00 miA Few Clouds81°F53°F39%1013.5 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX20 mi39 minWNW 510.00 miFair83°F53°F36%1013.3 hPa
Houston, Hooks Memorial Airport, TX22 mi39 minWNW 510.00 miFair78°F48°F35%1013 hPa
Houston Executive Airport, TX23 mi37 minN 310.00 miFair77°F53°F44%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from MCJ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE17
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2 days agoS13
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G26

Tide / Current Tables for Houston Ship Channel, Galveston Bay, Manchester, Texas
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Houston Ship Channel
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:18 AM CDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:44 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:54 AM CDT     1.30 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 02:30 PM CDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:19 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:44 PM CDT     1.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.41.31.21.11.11.21.31.31.31.110.70.50.40.30.30.40.60.91.21.41.51.51.5

Tide / Current Tables for San Jacinto Battleground State Historic Site, Texas
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San Jacinto Battleground State Historic Site
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:43 AM CDT     0.83 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:43 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:41 AM CDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:17 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:58 PM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:18 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM CDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.90.80.80.90.9110.90.80.60.50.30.20.10.20.30.60.811.21.21.21.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.