Friday, November17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Channelview, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 5:24PM Friday November 17, 2017 6:46 PM CST (00:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:53AMMoonset 5:17PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ335 Matagorda Bay-galveston Bay- 339 Pm Cst Fri Nov 17 2017
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters slightly choppy becoming choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 25 knots. Bay waters choppy.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Bay waters choppy becoming slightly choppy in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth.
Monday..East winds around 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Bay waters smooth to slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters smooth. A chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A chance of showers.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters slightly choppy.
GMZ300 Synopsis For High Island To The Matagorda Ship Channel Out 60 Nautical Miles Including Galveston And Matagorda Bays 339 Pm Cst Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis for high island to matagorda ship channel out 60 nm.. Increasing southerly winds and seas can be expected tonight through Saturday with the approach of a cold front. This front will push off the coast Saturday night with a strengthening offshore flow and seas building further in its wake. Gusts near gale force will be possible Saturday night behind the front with elevated winds and waves persisting through Sunday morning. Light offshore flow becomes established by late Sunday and is expected to become onshore again by Tuesday ahead of the next cold front.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Channelview, TX
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location: 29.77, -95.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Houston/Galveston, TX
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Fxus64 khgx 172350
afdhgx
area forecast discussion
national weather service houston galveston tx
550 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017

Aviation
Could see one more round of mainly MVFR ceilings develop overnight with
s to ssw winds 10-15 knots and occasionally gusty under a tightened
pressure gradient. The gusty winds will shift to the SW and W tomorrow
morning ahead of a cold front that will quickly works its way through
the area during the afternoon through very early evening hours. Winds
will stay gusty behind the front as they shift to the nw. Any ceilings
that developed tonight will lift and break - if not ahead of the front,
then definitely behind the front as drier air moves into the area.VFR
into tomorrow evening with weakening winds around the cll and uts areas
but staying on the breezy windy side closer to the coast. 42

Prev discussion issued 350 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017
discussion...

daytime heating has allowed for some mixing in the
lower levels, dragging some of the higher wind speeds located
within the first few kilometers of the atmosphere, down to the
surface. This warming has also help to erode the thicker cloud
deck that was present earlier this morning. Strands of cumulus
clouds still linger over much of the region this afternoon.

Overnight, low level clouds will develop around 2,000 feet and pws
will fall to around one inch. Forecast soundings still holding on to
a fairly strong cap at 850 mb across the region as well. Although
winds and wind gusts should lower early this evening, winds speeds
will stay elevate around 10 mph overnight. These faster wind speeds
should allow for a break from patchy fog tonight. Low temperatures
should remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s along the coast.

Saturday will bring the next cold front of the season which should
help drop temperatures to below normal climatology for this time of
year. Still a little uncertainty with the exact timing of the front,
but the models have been coming into more agreement in the more
recent model runs. The spread in the timing between the ECMWF and
the GFS has narrowed, and what was once a six hour discrepancy
has lessened, with the GFS solution making it to the coast
slightly faster. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten as
the trough enters the northern zone of our forecast area around
18z Saturday. We should see most of the precip move through SE tx
between 18-00z Saturday, clearing the coast shortly after 00z.

With the model soundings significantly capped as the front pushes
through the region, decided to keep thunder out of the forecast
and only anticipating showers at this time. This system will not
bring much in terms of total rainfall with most of the
accumulation along the coast, but it will leave gusty winds in its
wake.

Both models show the wind shift to out of the north northwest by 00z
Sunday. Therefore, gusty conditions will prevail Saturday evening
behind the front especially along the coast, evident in the
forecast soundings. Will have to continue to monitor trends in the
models, as we could be flirting with wind advisory criteria
Saturday night into Sunday along the coast and specifically for
galveston county. Behind the front cool and dry conditions will
prevail. The ECMWF is trending temperatures a few colder in
comparison to gfs. Leaned the forecast a little on the warmer side
closer to the GFS solution, based on consistency over the last
few model runs.

Additionally, depending on the timing of the cold front Saturday,
Saturday high temperatures could flirt with record values. The table
below contains both the normal and record temperature values for
Saturday november 18th. Behind the front high temperatures will
reach into the mid to upper 60s Sunday with low temperatures Sunday
night into Monday in the 40s to low 50s along the coast.

High pressure builds in behind the front and a warming trend will follow,
before the next cold front arrives late Tuesday into early
Wednesday. Pws rise to 1.00 to 1.25 inches on Tuesday as the next
front pushes through the region. Most of the precip with this
system will again be concentrated along the coast and over the
gulf waters. This system will act to provide a reinforcing shot of
cooler air, which will leave high temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday in the mid 60s to low 70s, with lows in the 40s to mid
50s.

Hathaway
climate...

normal and record temperature values for november 18th
site date normal normal high MAX high min
high low temp record temp record
gls 11 18 71 53 84 in 2016 73 in 1985
hou 11 18 72 53 86 in 1973 73 in 1985
iah 11 18 72 51 84 in 1973 74 in 1985
cll 11 18 70 50 84 in 1986 71 in 1985
hathaway
marine...

expect onshore winds to increase to caution conditions tonight as
the surface pressure gradient tightens. The cold front should push
off of the coast sometime Saturday evening. Strong offshore winds
will develop behind the front with advisory conditions expected
Saturday night and Sunday. The thermal gradient right behind the
front will help lead to gusts to gale after the frontal passage
Saturday night. These could persist into Sunday morning but this
will depend upon the thermal gradient. Onshore winds return by
Monday. Another front is expected off of the coast Tuesday evening.

Fire...

elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop for Sunday
and Monday as a very dry airmass moves over southeast texas. Even
though minimum relative humidity values will drop to between 25 and
30 percent area wide on Sunday afternoon and 30 to 40 percent most
areas on Monday, winds will likely be on the light side--probably 5
to 10 mph away from the coast on Sunday and under 10 mph on Monday.

Most concerned for Sunday with the drier conditions and winds
possibly reaching to between 10 and 15 mph in the coastal areas.

Preliminary point temps pops
College station (cll) 67 79 45 66 41 20 20 0 0 0
houston (iah) 69 84 48 67 43 10 20 0 0 0
galveston (gls) 71 82 55 66 54 10 30 10 0 0

Hgx watches warnings advisories
Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft should exercise caution through late tonight for the
following zones: coastal waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel out 20 nm... Coastal waters from high
island to freeport out 20 nm... Waters from freeport to the
matagorda ship channel from 20 to 60 nm... Waters from high
island to freeport from 20 to 60 nm.

46 42


Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Morgans Point, TX
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Houston / Ellington, TX11 mi56 minS 810.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F64°F65%1013.9 hPa
Houston, Houston Hobby Airport, TX13 mi53 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F66°F74%1013.2 hPa
John Dunn Helistop, TX17 mi51 minS 9 G 1410.00 miFair79°F64°F61%1012.5 hPa
Houston, Pearland Regional Airport, TX19 mi53 minS 610.00 miFair78°F68°F71%1013.5 hPa
Houston Intercontinental Airport, TX20 mi53 minS 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F64°F62%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from EFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE3CalmSE4SE4E3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS7S10S13S12S12S13S11SE12S12S8
1 day agoE4CalmCalm--CalmCalmNE1CalmNE2E3NW1CalmE4E3E3E5--E8E9E9E8E8E6E5
2 days agoSE4SE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmE3E6E6SE7--SE4E5E9E8E10E10E5

Tide / Current Tables for Lynchburg Landing, San Jacinto River, Texas
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Lynchburg Landing
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Fri -- 03:54 AM CST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:53 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:08 AM CST     0.98 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 02:36 PM CST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:16 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:23 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 11:04 PM CST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.11111110.90.80.70.50.30.20.10.10.20.40.60.811.21.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Barbours Cut, Morgans Point, Galveston Bay, Texas
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Barbours Cut
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:43 AM CST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:45 AM CST     1.03 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:46 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:23 PM CST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:16 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:23 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:03 PM CST     1.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.1111110.90.80.60.40.20-0.1-0.100.20.50.811.21.31.31.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Houston/Galveston, TX (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Houston/Galveston, TX
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.