Monday, June18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Abbeville, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:12PM Monday June 18, 2018 12:08 PM CDT (17:08 UTC) Moonrise 10:23AMMoonset 11:41PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ435 Vermilion Bay- 1009 Am Cdt Mon Jun 18 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 4 pm cdt this afternoon...
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Bay waters rough. Showers and chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms and slight chance of showers.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Bay waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms and slight chance of showers.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Bay waters a light chop. Chance of Thunderstorms and slight chance of showers.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 1009 Am Cdt Mon Jun 18 2018
Synopsis.. A weak tropical wave will continue to move across the western gulf of mexico and into texas through tonight. This system will interact with a surface high building in from the western atlantic and tighten the pressure gradient over the northwest gulf. The result will be strong onshore flow and rough seas with small craft conditions into this evening. Tides will also run about a foot above astronomical levels through this morning. The tropical wave will also bring an increase in moisture with numerous showers and storms through early in the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Abbeville city, LA
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location: 29.79, -92.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 181605
afdlch
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1105 am cdt Mon jun 18 2018

Discussion Stratiform rains embedded with showers and possibly
an isolated thunderstorm will continue in association with
western gulf tropical wave. Plenty of tropical moisture in place
over the forecast area on a deep southerly flow with the morning
lch sounding coming in with a very respectable pwat of 2.18
inches. Categorical pops over the southern portion of the area
then lower north looks good. See no need for any changes to the
forecast at this time.

Prev discussion issued 708 am cdt Mon jun 18 2018
discussion...

12z tafs
aviation...

widespread tropical showers and intermixed thunderstorms will
continue to push inland from the gulf through the forecast period
in association with a tropical wave moving across the northwestern
gulf. Ceilings will remainVFR through much of the morning with
periods of MVFR ceilings possible during the afternoon. The
proximity of the low pressure area will allow for breezy southerly
winds to develop by mid morning through the evening especially at
bpt which will be closer to the low's center. These winds will
weaken somewhat overnight.

Jones
prev discussion... Issued 413 am cdt Mon jun 18 2018
discussion...

satellite imagery this morning continues to show an area of
disturbed weather associated with mid upper-level low pressure
over the WRN gulf... While sfc analysis notes associated inverted
trof near the coast from deep south tx up through swrn la. Combo
of these features, along with copious gulf moisture to the tune of
sfc-h5 mean rh values near 80 percent and pwat values 2.0-2.2
inches per area 00z soundings, is producing another round of late
night convection covering much of the adjacent coastal waters.

Some of this activity has been making its way onshore, most
notably from marsh island wwd.

Not many changes to previous forecast thinking this morning as
tropical wave continues its slow wwd migration across the gulf.

Ridiculous moisture streaming nwd on back side of this feature
will continue to produce widespread showers some thunder through
the day, with highest pops again expected over coastal sern tx wrn
cameron. Latest wpc guidance indicates mean areal qpfs around 2
inches for today over the area of MAX pops... Latest flash flood
guidance for these areas generally show 4 to 5 inches in a 6-hour
period needed for flash flooding to start. Given the high moisture
content over the area at this time, localized higher amounts are
certainly possible, and wpc has put the extreme swrn portions of
the forecast area in a slight risk for flash flooding through
tonight... However given the disparity with FFG values for now,
have elected to refrain from issuing any flood watches at this
time. A repeat pattern is expected into Tuesday as the whole
system continues pushing slowly wwd into the tx coast.

We can also expect a pair of additional byproducts of the
disturbance pushing past the area the next day or so. First, we
will see a continued elevated srly flow today with speeds
approaching 20 knots near the coast... With 10-15 knot winds
expected as far inland as past i-10. For today and tomorrow, the
additional rainfall and cloud cover will lead to much cooler than
normal conditions primarily across the WRN 1 2 of the forecast
area with MAX temps expected to run only in the lower mid 80s.

Elevated rain chances linger through mid-week, mainly across the
wrn and NRN zones as the disturbance leaves behind a weak
trof shear axis. Forecast soundings indicate a continuation of
copious gulf moisture persisting across the region, thus good rain
chances are being carried across the WRN areas Tuesday NRN areas
Wednesday.

Rain chances begin to gradually return to more seasonal values
Friday and on into the weekend as weak ridging aloft over the
sern CONUS begins building back into the region. We should also
see a return of more summerlike temperatures with maxes forecast
in the lower 90s for all but the coastline each afternoon.

Marine...

extended the SCA for the coastal waters through the evening hours
tonight, while also adding scec headlines for calcasieu lake and
vermilion bay through today.

Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 88 70 86 70 50 20 40 20
lch 83 74 85 75 80 50 60 30
lft 86 75 89 75 70 30 40 20
bpt 81 75 83 76 80 70 80 40

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until midnight cdt tonight for gmz450-452-
455-470-472-475.

Small craft exercise caution until 4 pm cdt this afternoon for
gmz432-435.

Public... 23


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRWL1 - 8766072 - Fresh Water Canal Locks, LA 19 mi51 min ESE 15 G 23 78°F 81°F1018 hPa
TESL1 - Tesoro Marine Terminal - 8764044 - Berwick, LA 49 mi51 min S 11 G 13 73°F 83°F1020 hPa
KSCF 49 mi34 min ESE 21 79°F 72°F
AMRL1 - 8764227 - Amerada Pass, LA 49 mi51 min SSE 4.1 G 8 76°F 80°F1019.5 hPa
EINL1 49 mi51 min S 12 G 17 77°F 81°F1018.6 hPa72°F

Wind History for LAWMA, Amerada Pass, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Abbeville Chris Crusta Memorial Airport, LA13 mi74 minESE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F73°F93%1019 hPa
Acadiana Regional Airport, LA22 mi76 minESE 710.00 miOvercast77°F69°F77%1019 hPa

Wind History from ARA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE15S10S9
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SE6E6S4E3E5E4E5SE6E5E4E6S5E3E5SE16
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1 day agoSE9SW6SE4SE8SE10SE7E11S7SE4E5E6E5SE8SE9SE8SE8SE4E4NE6E8SE12SE16S7SE12
G16
2 days agoNE7N653CalmS6CalmCalmSE5SE5SE5SE5S3CalmE5CalmCalmNE3CalmE3E4SE64S5

Tide / Current Tables for Cypremort Point, Louisiana
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Cypremort Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:25 AM CDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:07 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:15 PM CDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:34 PM CDT     1.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:06 PM CDT     1.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:11 PM CDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:55 PM CDT     1.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:19 PM CDT     1.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:49 PM CDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.60.30.10.1-0.1-00.20.40.60.811.11.21.21.21.31.21.11.11.21.21.21.1

Tide / Current Tables for Weeks Bay, Vermilion Bay, Louisiana
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Weeks Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:35 AM CDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:06 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:21 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:04 PM CDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:41 PM CDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:10 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:13 PM CDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.10.10.50.91.21.41.51.51.41.31.21.11.11.111.11.11

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.