Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrabelle, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:31PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 4:46 AM EDT (08:46 UTC) Moonrise 4:09AMMoonset 5:14PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 433 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through Thursday morning...
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots...becoming southwest around 20 knots late this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet...building to 3 to 5 feet occasionally up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds around 20 knots...becoming 20 to 25 knots toward daybreak. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 25 to 30 knots and gusty. Seas building to 5 to 7 feet near shore and 7 to 10 feet further offshore. Dominant period 7 seconds in the afternoon. Protected waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots...becoming northwest around 15 knots. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Thursday night..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters smooth to a light chop.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters smooth.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters smooth.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters smooth to a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 433 Am Edt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis.. Winds will increase quickly today to advisory levels by afternoon. Though a brief respite from these conditions is possible after midnight, winds will rapidly increase before daybreak Wednesday to 25 to 30 knots and persist through the afternoon when a cold front will move through the marine area. Winds will then begin to decrease Wednesday night and drop below advisory levels on Thursday morning. Winds will further subside by Friday as high pressure builds near the marine area.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrabelle, FL
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location: 29.85, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 230807
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
407 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Near term [through today]
A very broad and anomalously deep positively tilted upper level
trough is northwest of our area, with an axis from the great lakes
down to the southern rockies. This trough has embedded shortwaves,
which will help sustain convection today. At the surface, a surface
front is draped along the east coast, southeastern conus, and the
la/tx coastline. Ahead of the front, our area is situated in a warm,
moist environment, with surface dewpoints in the low 70s and model
pws for the afternoon around the 99th percentile of our
climatological records. MLCAPE will increase through the afternoon
hours up to around 1500-2000 j/kg, with the highest values in our
northwestern zones. The strong low will also increase the low level
jet, driving 0-1 km shear up to 15-20 kts and bulk shear values up
around 40 kts over our area this afternoon. SPC has placed northern
portions of our area under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

The main threat will be damaging wind gusts, but an isolated tornado
or two will also be possible. Heavy rain will also be possible-
around 1-1.5" accumulations are expected during the day today across
most of the area, though isolated spots could see higher totals.

Short term [tonight through Thursday]
Main forcing for Tuesday's precip will be moving across the
carolinas at the start of the short term period this evening and
our region will be in a brief lull between rounds of showers and
storms. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement with the
overall synoptic pattern showing a deepening upper trough
dropping from the central plains into the mid south by Wednesday
morning. As this occurs strong vertical ascent will lead to
numerous showers and thunderstorms developing across the eastern
gulf coast states ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Lift
will maximize late Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours
as the frontal boundary moves through the region. Drier conditions
will arrive quickly behind the cold front on Wednesday evening.

The difficulty is in the details, which the individual models are
having trouble resolving. While we're very confident that there
will be a large area of rain across the area on Wednesday, there
are uncertainties with respect to the severe potential and the
rainfall amounts.

23/00z NAM model soundings show 0-6km shear increasing to near 50
kt across the florida panhandle and into SRN ga on Wednesday
morning and early afternoon, with 0-1km shear values in the 20-25
kt range, all fairly impressive values for this part of the
country at the end of may. But previous convection on Tuesday will
limit how much destabilization occurs on Wednesday. Thus, the
overall risk is still fairly uncertain. Wind damage would be the
primary threat and this has been added to the forecast this cycle.

The rainfall forecast is also complicated by the multiple waves of
convection on Tuesday evening through Wednesday. The deep layer
forcing is quite impressive for this time of year and with
precipitable water values exceeding 1.8 inches, it's likely that
at least some areas will see some hefty rainfall totals by
Wednesday. However, it's difficult even at this range to pinpoint
where the heavier amounts will occur. Given the higher than usual
degree of uncertainty, will delay a flood watch issuance until
later shifts to assess how today's convection will influence
tomorrow's forecast. More info can be found in the hydrology
section below.

Finally, a 24-30 hr period of strong onshore winds ahead of the
frontal system will overspread the northeastern gulf starting
Tuesday afternoon and continue through Wednesday evening. This
setup tends to favor coastal flooding for the florida big bend
around the time of high tide, generally east of saint marks
through the suwannee river. A coastal flood watch has been issued
for this area valid Wednesday. More details can be found in the
hydrology section below.

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]
Little or no impact weather is expected through the long term
period of the forecast. In the wake of the departing storm system
on Thursday, much drier and somewhat cooler air will overspread
the region through Friday. Temperatures will be several degrees
below normal with low temperatures on Friday morning in the 50s. A
warming trend will commence on Friday as high pressure builds back
over the region and temperatures return to more seasonable levels.

Model guidance has a frontal zone near the forecast area on
Sunday, when rain chances (mainly in the afternoon) will begin to
increase and remain in the 20-40 percent range through the end of
the forecast period.

Aviation [through 06z Wednesday]
Light to moderate showers are near dhn/aby/ecp at the moment, with
development approaching tlh in the next couple of hours.

Thunderstorms will develop around sunrise, with showers and
thunderstorms on and off throughout the day across the area. Cigs
and vsbys will be mostly MVFR, though periods of ifr will be
possible. Winds will generally be from the south-southwest and will
increase through the morning, with gusts of 15-20 kts likely during
thunderstorms.

Marine
Winds will increase quickly today to advisory levels by afternoon.

Though a brief respite from these conditions is possible after
midnight, winds will rapidly increase before daybreak Wednesday
to 25 to 30 knots and persist through the afternoon when a cold
front will move through the marine area. Winds will then begin to
decrease Wednesday night and drop below advisory levels on
Thursday morning. Winds will further subside by Friday as high
pressure builds near the marine area.

Fire weather
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area through
Wednesday. With a good soaking rain for the area, there are no fire
weather concerns.

Hydrology
The rainfall forecast continues to be complicated. Model guidance
suggests the potential for 1-2 inches with locally heavier totals
across the region today as an initial disturbance moves through
the region. The more potent disturbance on Wednesday suggests at
least some potential for more widespread heavy rainfall,
particularly across SRN ga and the florida big bend. However,
confidence in the amounts and placement of the heaviest totals is
fairly low. The local ecam output suggests however, the heaviest
rain amounts will be confined to the florida big bend and perhaps
into far south central georgia. At this point in time it appears
that the second round of rain on Wednesday should feature rainfall
amounts of 2-4 inches across much of the area. However, it's
possible that some isolated heavier totals of 4-7 inches could
occur on Wednesday. The recent dry conditions and the overall
uncertainty in the forecast again argue against the issuance of a
flash flood watch for Wednesday on this cycle.

For the rivers, only the choctawhatchee river is vulnerable at
this time to river flooding from direct rainfall in the region.

South georgia rivers are running at very low levels, so even if
the higher amounts materialize over these basins, the river flood
risk would be minimal. Increased flows are being routed down the
chattahoochee river given expected heavier rains in the acf system
above columbus ga. As a result, rises downstream of woodruff dam
are expected through the latter part of this week. At the current
time the apalachicola river at blountstown is expected to remain
below flood stage.

For the coastal flood threat - strong southwest to west
southwesterly flow across apalachee bay initially at 20 knots on
Tuesday afternoon will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning to near 30 knots. This setup increases the likelihood of
coastal flooding for the eastern portion of apalachee bay,
generally from st marks southeastward through the suwannee river.

Output from both the etss and estofs models maximize the highest
surge in the 14-17z time frame, which is in between low and high
tide on Wednesday. Even if the peak surge occurs just prior to
high tide, the models suggest water levels of 1 to 2 feet above
mean higher high water. The etss output at 00z was even a little
higher, approaching 3 feet above mhhw. Deviations of this
magnitude typically result in flooding of low lying roads along
the coast and potentially affecting non-elevated structures
immediately adjacent to the beach. Will issue a coastal flood
watch this cycle for Wednesday. Future shifts will evaluate the
need for either a coastal flood advisory or coastal flood warning
for the watch area.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 82 70 77 58 82 / 80 60 90 20 0
panama city 79 73 77 64 78 / 70 60 90 0 0
dothan 79 68 78 57 79 / 90 60 80 10 0
albany 79 68 76 57 79 / 90 50 90 20 0
valdosta 81 68 76 59 80 / 80 60 90 30 0
cross city 84 71 79 64 81 / 50 60 90 60 10
apalachicola 83 74 81 63 82 / 60 60 90 10 0

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... Coastal flood watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for coastal dixie-coastal jefferson-coastal
taylor-coastal wakulla.

High rip current risk through late tonight for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Thursday for apalachee bay or coastal waters from keaton
beach to ochlockonee river fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters
from ochlockonee river to apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-
coastal waters from suwannee river to keaton beach out 20
nm-waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to
60 nm.

Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning to 5 am edt
Thursday for coastal waters from apalachicola to destin fl
out 20 nm-waters from apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to
60 nm.

Near term... Moore
short term... Godsey
long term... Godsey
aviation... Moore
marine... Godsey
fire weather... Moore
hydrology... Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 12 mi61 min SSW 9.9 78°F 76°F
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 19 mi46 min SW 12 G 14 78°F 82°F1011.4 hPa (-2.0)
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi112 min SSW 16 G 20 79°F 1011.9 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 32 mi46 min SSW 13 G 14 77°F 1012.1 hPa (-2.1)74°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Apalachicola, Apalachicola, FL21 mi53 minWSW 710.00 miLight Rain77°F77°F100%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3CalmCalmN3S5S7S7S9S10S11S8S10SW10S8S7SW6SW4SW5SW4SW3SW4SW8SW6W7
1 day agoN13
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N10N4E3CalmS6SE15
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SE6S8S11SE7S5S6S9S9S5CalmCalmNE3N3CalmCalmNW4Calm
2 days agoS7SE6SE7SE9SE11SE11SE12SE12SE14
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Tide / Current Tables for Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida
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Carrabelle
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Tue -- 01:35 AM EDT     1.74 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:09 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:08 PM EDT     2.36 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:13 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.71.71.61.41.10.90.80.91.21.61.92.22.42.321.61.10.60.2-000.30.7

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Apalachee Bay, St. James Island, Florida
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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:15 AM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:08 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:51 AM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:42 PM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:12 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:37 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.62.52.21.81.41.11.11.21.62.12.6332.82.21.60.90.3-0.1-0.10.10.71.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.