Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrabelle, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 8:30PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 3:31 PM EDT (19:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:01PMMoonset 1:29AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 950 Am Edt Tue May 22 2018
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight through Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 950 Am Edt Tue May 22 2018
Synopsis.. Light southeasterly winds will increase on Friday as a low develops in the gulf. Winds will be moderate around 15 to 20 knots this holiday weekend. Three to four foot seas can be expected this weekend. A wet pattern will be in place through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrabelle, FL
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location: 29.85, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 221348
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
948 am edt Tue may 22 2018

Update
No significant changes to the previous forecast appear necessary. A
moist airmass remains in place across the area with the 12z ktae
sounding sampling a precipitable water value of 1.72 inches. A weak
upper level vort MAX still exists just north of the area, and with
daytime heating, expect scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will be the
main threat.

Prev discussion [643 am edt]
Near term [through today]
500mb low across southeast alabama will continue to weaken today.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms can already be noted on radar
this morning. Unfortunately, have seen additional training of these
storms this morning but so far the rainfall amounts have been
manageable. With daytime heating, expect shower and thunderstorm
activity to increase for the afternoon (80-80% pops) with the better
chances inland. The main threat for today will continue to be the
flood threat given the potential for heavy rain. While isolated
flash flooding is possible today, given the more sporadic nature of
the heavy rain and training, will hold off on any flash flood
watches for now. Highs will reach into the low to mid 80s this
afternoon.

Short term [tonight through Thursday]
In the upper levels a ridge will be over the central u.S. And a
trough will develop in the caribbean. At the surface a weak pressure
gradient will be over the region with a surface low developing near
western cuba. Pops will remain elevated as the influx of tropical
moisture continues. Pops will be 40 to 70 percent during the daytime
with thunderstorms likely. At night pops will remain elevated at 30
to 60 percent. Skies will remain mostly cloudy. Highs will be in the
mid to upper 80s. Lows will be near 70.

Long term [Thursday night through Tuesday]
In the upper levels a low will form over the gulf on Friday. At the
surface a low will move into the gulf by Friday. NHC has a 40
percent chance for tropical cyclone development on this low. This
low could become a depression or weak tropical storm by Friday or
Saturday. The forecast track is still uncertain the ECMWF has it
going toward the mississippi coast and the GFS has it going into the
central florida gulf coast. Regardless of development or potential
track, this low will result in a big influx of tropical moisture.

Pops will be elevated through early next week. There will be heavy
rain at times. Flooding is a possibility. Highs will be in the 80s.

Lows will be near 70.

Aviation [through 12z Wednesday]
Lifr to MVFR conditions will continue to remain at the TAF sites
over the next few hours with improvement expected mid to late
morning. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are already affecting
the TAF sites this morning with greater coverage expected this
afternoon.

Marine
Light southeasterly winds will increase on Friday as a low develops
in the gulf. Winds will be moderate around 15 to 20 knots this
holiday weekend. Three to four foot seas can be expected this
weekend. A wet pattern will be in place through early next week.

Fire weather
With the wet pattern continuing into the weekend, red flag warning
conditions will not be met for the next few days.

Hydrology
There is growing confidence for heavy rain through this weekend.

A wet pattern will be in place through the weekend. Three to seven
inches of rain is predicted over the next seven days with isolated
higher amounts likely. There is uncertainty with the rain total
forecast due to uncertainty with the track of the low developing in
the gulf. Regardless of the track an influx of tropical moisture is
expected to produce heavy rain at times through the weekend. River
levels are slowly starting to rise. Most local rivers are still
below action stage. Rain totals will increase this weekend and river
levels will be rising. River gauges will need to be closely
monitored. Flash flooding is possible especially later this week.

Localized nuisance flooding of low-lying areas and ponding on
roadways is likely through the weekend.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 84 69 87 70 88 60 30 50 30 50
panama city 82 72 84 73 85 60 30 40 20 40
dothan 82 69 85 70 87 80 60 70 30 60
albany 85 69 86 70 87 70 50 70 40 60
valdosta 85 67 87 69 87 70 40 60 40 50
cross city 85 67 87 69 87 60 40 40 30 40
apalachicola 82 73 83 73 84 40 20 30 20 30

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Dvd
near term... Fieux
short term... Mcd
long term... Mcd
aviation... Fieux
marine... Mcd
fire weather... Fieux
hydrology... Mcd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 19 mi44 min S 8 G 11 79°F 80°F1017.9 hPa
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi98 min SSE 13 G 15 80°F 1018 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 32 mi32 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 76°F 1017.9 hPa (-1.0)73°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Apalachicola, Apalachicola, FL21 mi39 minSSE 1210.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F75°F79%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS13S9S10SE11SE9SE7SE11SE10S11S11SE12S10S10S11S11S11S13S10SE10S12SE13S11S14S12
1 day agoE14
G21
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E9SE8E9NE11E6NE7NE5N7NE7N5NE4SE5SE7SE8SE10SE11S13S13S11S14
2 days agoS9S10S10S6S6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNW3NE3NE3NE4NE3E6E10SE12
G18
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G18
SE15
G19
SE14
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida
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Carrabelle
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:46 AM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:18 AM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:33 PM EDT     1.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:13 PM EDT     1.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.70.30-00.10.40.71.11.41.61.71.71.61.51.41.41.41.61.71.921.91.8

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Apalachee Bay, St. James Island, Florida
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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:50 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:05 AM EDT     2.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:00 PM EDT     1.60 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:01 PM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.60.30.20.40.71.21.72.12.42.52.42.221.81.71.61.71.822.22.32.22

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.