Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrabelle, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 5:42PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 10:11 PM EST (03:11 UTC) Moonrise 12:08PMMoonset 10:52PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 956 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
.small craft operators should exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of rain.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Rain showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 956 Pm Est Tue Nov 13 2018
Synopsis..Winds will be moderate to strong over the next few days with alternating advisory and caution conditions likely. Rain will continue through Thursday then dry weather into the next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrabelle, FL
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location: 29.85, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 140255
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
955 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Update
Other than some minor tweaks to overnight pops, the previous
forecast remains on track.

Prev discussion [625 pm est]
Near term [through tonight]
Cold front continues to press eastward across the forecast area this
afternoon, moving through tallahassee around 18z. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms ahead of the front will continue to move eastward
as well through the afternoon. Behind the front, there is a break in
the precip across the big bend and SW georgia, with additional
rainfall developing and moving inland into the florida panhandle and
se alabama. This area of precip will slide slowly east through the
afternoon, producing a widespread area of light rain. Overnight,
this area of rain will increase in coverage as isentropic lift
strengthens ahead of a deepening trough digging into texas. While
coverage should be widespread, the intensity is expected to be
limited, with only modest QPF amounts in the forecast. With this in
mind, will go ahead and cancel the flash flood watch.

Short term [Wednesday through Thursday night]
Upper low will start this period over the ARKLATEX and move
northeast towards the DELMARVA while slowly weakening over time.

Cold front will stall to our south while another area of low
pressure will develop in response to a shortwave trough moving
through the flow. This surface low will race northeast and drier
air will sweep in on the backside and dry the weather out from
west to east Wednesday night into Thursday with decreasing clouds
Thursday afternoon. Thursday night will be dry. Temperatures will
be at or below normal this period.

Long term [Friday through Tuesday]
Zonal flow sets up across the southeast CONUS this period with
surface high pressure dominating through Monday. A weak frontal
boundary does move into the southeast states but moisture is
lacking and just a mere increase in clouds is expected.

Temperatures will be below seasonal averages through the weekend
then around average early next week.

Aviation
[through 00z Thursday]
this evening CIGS are already ifr in most locations. Lifr CIGS can
be expected late tonight and in the early morning hours. Patchy fog
is likely. Rain will become more widespread late tonight. By late
morning to early afternoon rain will become steadier and heavier.

Ifr conditions will persist for most of tomorrow morning and
afternoon.

Marine
Winds will be moderate to strong over the next few days with
alternating advisory and caution conditions likely. Rain will
continue through Thursday then dry weather into the next weekend.

Fire weather
Aside from low dispersion indices, hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected.

Hydrology
Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue through
Wednesday night with dry conditions beginning Thursday. Generally
1-2 inches of rainfall is expected with isolated amounts up to 4
inches. The heaviest amounts will generally be across SE alabama
and southern georgia. Isolated flash flooding will continue to be
a concern. There are several river basins, especially across the
florida panhandle, that are in action stage with forecasts into
flood such as the chipola, shoal, and choctawhatchee near bruce.

These will need to be watched over the next 24 to 36 hours or so.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 55 63 46 56 36 40 90 90 10 0
panama city 53 60 43 54 39 60 90 80 10 0
dothan 50 55 38 50 33 70 90 90 10 0
albany 53 57 44 53 35 40 90 90 10 0
valdosta 57 62 49 56 36 70 70 80 20 0
cross city 63 74 54 63 38 40 40 60 20 0
apalachicola 56 65 47 59 40 40 90 80 10 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 am est Wednesday for coastal waters
from mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm-coastal
waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl
out 20 nm-waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from
20 to 60 nm-waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton
county line fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Update... Harrigan
near term... Camp
short term... Scholl
long term... Scholl
aviation... Mcd
marine... Scholl
fire weather... Harrigan
hydrology... Scholl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 19 mi42 min NNE 12 G 14 60°F 69°F1020.8 hPa
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi78 min NE 4.1 G 12 62°F 69°F1019.8 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 32 mi72 min N 17 G 19 64°F 1020.4 hPa (+3.0)60°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Apalachicola, Apalachicola, FL21 mi19 minENE 810.00 miOvercast59°F55°F90%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6N5N5CalmE6N4NE6NE4E4NE4E5E5CalmSW3S7CalmNE6N13
G19
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1 day agoE11E11E10E10
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E7E8E7SE7SE11S11S8S9S7S6S6S6
2 days agoNE9NE8NE7NE6NE7NE7NE9NE8NE7NE9NE8NE9E8E9E66SE8SE7SE3E4NE7NE7E7E10

Tide / Current Tables for Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida
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Carrabelle
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:26 AM EST     2.30 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:43 PM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:43 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:32 PM EST     1.56 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:52 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EST     1.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.61.822.22.32.32.11.81.51.10.70.40.20.10.30.50.711.31.51.51.51.51.5

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Apalachee Bay, St. James Island, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.