Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carrabelle, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 7:02PM Thursday October 19, 2017 5:22 AM EDT (09:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:27AMMoonset 6:21PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ755 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- 318 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Today..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Tonight through Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Friday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of rain.
Saturday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters choppy. Rain likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 318 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis.. Northeasterly or easterly winds will stay elevated through Sunday morning. The small craft advisory will expire this morning but winds will still be 15 to 20 knots offshore. Small craft advisory conditions are possible again on Friday night and Saturday night mainly offshore. A cold front will move through early next week bringing increased rain chances beginning on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carrabelle, FL
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location: 29.85, -84.67     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 190723
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
323 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Near term [through today]
The Wednesday evening subjective analyses and satellite data showed
a very dry troposphere above 850 mb over our forecast area, with nw
flow and subsidence aloft. At the surface, east to northeast winds
along the southern periphery of an eastern CONUS ridge will
gradually moisten the layer below 850 mb, but minimal buoyancy and
the shallow nature of this moisture will keep pops below 20 percent.

High temperatures will reach the lower to mid 80s, which is a few
degrees above average for this time of year.

Short term [tonight through Saturday]
In the upper levels a ridge will be over the southeast. At the
surface high pressure will be over the eastern u.S. Pops will be
very low near zero through Friday night. On Saturday pops will be
10 to 15 percent. Lows will be in the 50s and 60s. Highs will be
in the low to mid 80s.

Long term [Saturday night through Thursday]
In the upper levels a trough will move into the region by Monday.

By Tuesday a deep trough will cover the entire central and eastern
u.S. At the surface a low will develop near ms la and a trailing
cold front will approach the region on Monday. This cold front
will move completely through the region by Tuesday morning. Pops
will increase to 35 to 50 percent on Sunday as southerly flow
increases low level moisture. Sunday night pops will remain
elevated as the cold front nears. Monday and Monday night will be
the best chance for thunderstorms and rain with pops of 50 to 60
percent. Highs will be in the 70s after the cold front passes on
Tuesday. Lows will be mainly in the 60s until the cold front
passes then lows will be in the 50s and upper 40s.

Aviation [through 06z Friday]
We expect a continuation of unrestricted vis and unlimited cigs
through this TAF period, with generally NE winds 5 to 9 kt. The
one exception may be a few brief periods ofVFR CIGS (4-5k ft
agl) around kvld later today.

Marine
Northeasterly or easterly winds will stay elevated through Sunday
morning. The small craft advisory will expire this morning but
winds will still be 15 to 20 knots offshore. Small craft advisory
conditions are possible again on Friday night and Saturday night
mainly offshore. A cold front will move through early next week
bringing increased rain chances beginning on Sunday.

Fire weather
Moderate transport winds may help drive dispersion values to 75 or
greater across portions of north fl today and Friday. Otherwise
there are no fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
River levels remain fairly low at this time. Rain totals over the
next week are forecast to be around one inch as a cold front moves
through early next week. No flooding concerns.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 83 59 85 63 86 0 0 0 0 10
panama city 82 62 83 67 84 0 0 0 0 10
dothan 80 54 82 59 83 0 0 0 0 10
albany 81 52 82 58 83 0 0 0 0 10
valdosta 81 57 83 61 84 0 0 0 0 10
cross city 84 63 85 64 86 10 0 10 0 20
apalachicola 82 64 83 69 83 0 0 0 10 20

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for waters from
suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters
from apalachicola to destin fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Fournier
short term... Mcd
long term... Mcd
aviation... Fournier
marine... Mcd
fire weather... Fournier
hydrology... Mcd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 12 mi97 min NNE 5.1 65°F 63°F
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 19 mi52 min NE 8 G 9.9 66°F 76°F1020.7 hPa
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi88 min NNE 7 G 13 66°F 1020.9 hPa
SGOF1 - Tyndall AFB Tower C (N4), FL 32 mi82 min ENE 20 G 23 73°F 1020.5 hPa (-0.9)66°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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NE12
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NE7
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N6
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G22
N15
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NE13
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G13

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Apalachicola, Apalachicola, FL21 mi29 minNE 910.00 miFair64°F64°F100%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from AAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE9NE10NE14NE8NE8NE9NE7E6NE8NE6E6E5NE5NE4N5NE5NE4NE6NE7NE6NE5NE6NE9
1 day agoNE11NE10NE10NE10NE10NE9
G19
NE11E11NE6NE12NE9NE9NE10NE9NE6NE6NE8NE6NE9NE9NE8NE8NE9NE9
2 days agoN5N5N6NE5NE6N7N7N7CalmCalmS10SW8NE13NE8NE4N4N10N14NE13NE12
G20
NE12NE11NE12NE10

Tide / Current Tables for Carrabelle, Carrabelle River, Florida
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Carrabelle
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:33 AM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:03 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 03:32 PM EDT     2.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:01 PM EDT     0.98 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.722.22.22.11.71.30.90.50.40.50.81.11.61.92.12.11.91.71.31.111.11.3

Tide / Current Tables for Turkey Point, Apalachee Bay, St. James Island, Florida
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Turkey Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:11 AM EDT     2.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:43 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:03 PM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 07:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:54 PM EDT     1.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.22.72.92.82.41.91.20.70.30.30.511.72.32.72.92.82.41.91.51.111.21.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.