Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Augustine South, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:28PM Thursday November 22, 2018 5:21 AM EST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:25PMMoonset 6:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 241 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 10 am est this morning through this evening...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Friday evening...
Today..Northeast winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots with occasional gusts to gale force this afternoon. Seas building to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters choppy. Showers in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale force. Seas 7 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters rough. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday..Northeast winds 25 to 30 knots with frequent gusts to gale force. Seas 7 to 10 feet with occasional seas up to 13 feet. Dominant period 8 seconds. Inland waters rough. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 20 to 25 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 9 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Saturday..West southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday night..West northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 241 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
Synopsis.. Strong high pressure north of the waters will Wedge down the southeastern seaboard today. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure center will develop off the florida east coast along a stationary frontal boundary tonight and will lift slowly northward. A tightening pressure gradient between these two features will result in strengthening onshore winds today with frequent gale force wind gusts tonight and Friday. Winds and seas will diminish Friday night and Saturday ahead of an approaching weak cold front, which will cross our waters Saturday night. A stronger cold front will cross our waters Sunday night, bringing strengthening offshore winds through early next week.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 22, 2018 at 1200 utc... 65 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 70 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 82 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 91 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Augustine South CDP, FL
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location: 29.87, -81.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 220906
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
406 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Strong northeast wind event to bring high surf, coastal
flooding, beach erosion, high winds and locally heavy rainfall to
northeast florida and southeast georgia coastal counties tonight
and Friday...

Near term today through Friday
Today... Clouds will continue to increase in the zonal flow aloft
as strong high pressure wedges down the SE us coastline and
stationary front remains south of the region across the fl
peninsula. The tightening pressure gradient will increase NE winds
today with NE 15-25g30-35 mph along the coastal areas by the
afternoon and 10-15g20-25 mph over inland areas. Most areas will
remain dry with shower activity only kicking in along the NE fl
coastal areas of st johns flagler counties by mid-late afternoon
hours with low chances of some heavy rainfall isolated storms as
the bulk of this event will hold off until after sunset. Max
temps will only reach back into the 60s for most locations with a
few near 70 degree readings across inland NE fl south of i-10.

Tonight Friday... Strong northeast flow event takes shape as a
combination of mid level shortwave aloft will help to lower
pressures off the fl east coast along the old frontal boundary as
high pressure strengthens over the carolinas and NE winds increase
to 20-30g35-40 mph along the atlc coast and have already posted
wind advisory for tonight that will continue into Friday. Numerous
to widespread shower activity with embedded isolated storms just
north of the frontal boundary over the atlc coastal waters will
continue to push onshore along the NE fl coastline in the st
johns flagler region in the evening hours with locally heavy
rainfall there, these heavy bands will slowly shift northward into
the jax area and SE ga during the overnight hours and will
continue through the day on Friday. Storm total rainfall amounts
of 1 to 2 inches expected along the coastal areas with locally
heavier amounts possible along the NE fl coast south of jax. Drier
than normal conditions over the past 60-90 days will preclude the
need for a widespread flood watch, but that does not mean local
flood problems will not be possible especially during times of
high tide this evening and again Friday morning. Temps will
generally only fall back into the 50s lower 60s and remain steady
through the night. Windy conditions and locally heavy rainfall
potential will continue through the day on Friday along the coast,
with scattered showers and breezy winds further inland, with
fading rainfall chances towards sunset. Temps will only rebound
about 5-10 degrees on Friday into the 60s and some near 70 degree
readings over inland NE fl.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
By Friday evening showers and storms will begin to lighten as the
surface low off of the east florida coast begins to channel up
towards the north. On Saturday, a weak shortwave will move across
the area just ahead of a cold frontal boundary which will pass to
our north, with its leading edge moving over SE georgia. During
its passage, showers and storms will be developing throughout the
region, with conditions being relatively warm. High temperatures
for the weekend are expected to be range from the low to high 70s,
with the higher temperatures occuring in the southernmost parts
of the forecast area. Overnight low temperatures will be in the
mid 50s for a majority of the region and in the 60s for the
southern counties and coastal areas.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
On Monday, a stronger cold front will push through with showers
and possible storms developing ahead of its passage. High
pressure, dry air, and cool temperatures will settle over the area
by midday Monday along with a shift in the winds from being out
of the SW to out of the nw. These conditions are forecasted to
persist at least into the middle of next week. MAX temperatures
ahead of the front will range from the high 60s to high 70s and
then drop into the 50s and 60s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Overnight
low temperatures for this span will be in the low to mid 40s.

Aviation
Vfr conds with increasing NE winds today, then lower MVFR cigs
will push into the coastal areas tonight in the 21z-00z time frame
and start to impact sgj ssi crg as rainfall begins with best
chances towards the 03-06z time frame. Gusty NE winds of 10-15g20
knots will impact the inland TAF sites by this afternoon with
ne 15-18g25-28 knots at the coastal TAF sites this evening after
00z.

Marine
Models are in good agreement for strong NE winds to increase
today with 25-30 knot sustained winds tonight and Friday with
frequent gusts to gale force expected and have posted a gale
warning. Seas to build to 7-10 ft nearshore waters tonight and
Friday with 9-13 ft seas offshore. Conditions will begin to slowly
improve later on Friday night as low pressure develops along the
front over the fl east coast and tracks off to the NE although
seas will remain elevated and small craft advisory conditions will
linger well into Saturday night. A more offshore flow develops by
Sunday and Monday with models still trying to get a handle on
strength of winds and headlines still uncertain.

Coastal flood: coastal flood advisory has been kept in place for
today and tonight as northeast flow event sets up and produces
elevated tidal levels with this mornings high tide and likely
minor flooding with this evenings high tide cycle with tidal
departures around 1 ft. Have upgraded to a coastal flood watch for
Friday as the morning high tide cycle appears set to have up to a
2 ft tidal departure on top of the already higher than normal full
moon cycle and it appears as though moderate coastal flooding is
looking more likely. This may need to upgraded to a coastal flood
warning if model trends continue. The combination of strong
onshore winds, locally heavy rainfall along the coast and this
high tide cycle may produce the highest non-tropical tides for
november since the thanksgiving day northeast flow event in 1984.

Rip currents surf: high risk of rip currents develop today and
continue through Friday night in the strong NE flow. Surf breakers
will build into the 4-6 ft range by this afternoon with 6 to 9
feet breakers tonight and Friday and high surf advisory has been
posted with surf slowly decreasing Friday night. Minor beach
erosion expected today with moderate beach erosion during times of
high tide tonight and Friday.

Hydrology
Minor flooding will continue along the altamaha river basin near
charlotteville and baxley through this weekend and into early
next week.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 64 44 60 52 0 0 30 40
ssi 65 57 64 59 0 50 80 70
jax 68 58 68 58 10 70 80 50
sgj 70 62 71 60 40 90 80 50
gnv 70 56 72 56 10 40 40 20
ocf 72 57 74 57 10 30 40 20

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk from 10 am est this morning through late
Friday night for coastal duval-coastal flagler-coastal
nassau-coastal st. Johns.

Coastal flood watch from Friday morning through late Friday
night for coastal duval-coastal flagler-coastal nassau-
coastal st. Johns.

High surf advisory from 7 pm this evening to 5 am est Saturday
for coastal duval-coastal flagler-coastal nassau-coastal
st. Johns.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 am est Friday for coastal duval-
coastal flagler-coastal nassau-coastal st. Johns.

Wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est Friday for
coastal duval-coastal flagler-coastal nassau-coastal st.

Johns.

Ga... High rip current risk from 10 am est this morning through late
Friday night for coastal camden-coastal glynn.

Coastal flood watch from Friday morning through late Friday
night for coastal camden-coastal glynn.

High surf advisory from 7 pm this evening to 5 am est Saturday
for coastal camden-coastal glynn.

Coastal flood advisory until 6 am est Friday for coastal camden-
coastal glynn.

Wind advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est Friday for
coastal camden-coastal glynn.

Am... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 7 pm est this
evening for coastal waters from altamaha sound to
fernandina beach fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from
fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl out 20 nm-coastal
waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl out 20 nm-
waters from altamaha sound ga to fernandina beach fl from
20 to 60 nm-waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine
fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from st. Augustine to flagler
beach fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to 7 pm est Friday for
coastal waters from altamaha sound to fernandina beach fl
out 20 nm-coastal waters from fernandina beach to st.

Augustine fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from st. Augustine to
flagler beach fl out 20 nm-waters from altamaha sound ga to
fernandina beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from fernandina
beach to st. Augustine fl from 20 to 60 nm-waters from st.

Augustine to flagler beach fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Hess corless


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 3 mi22 min NW 8 G 9.9 54°F 67°F1022.2 hPa (-0.4)
RCYF1 14 mi34 min 67°F
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 15 mi97 min NW 4.1 55°F 1023 hPa51°F
LTJF1 36 mi34 min 55°F 51°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 37 mi34 min NNW 8 G 8.9 55°F 67°F1022.7 hPa
DMSF1 38 mi34 min 67°F
BLIF1 38 mi34 min N 8.9 G 12 55°F 1023.6 hPa53°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL7 mi26 minNW 810.00 miFair52°F48°F89%1022.6 hPa

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW7NW6NW6N3NW6N5W7NE10N9N10N9N6N5NW4CalmNW5NW6NW6NW5NW7NW8NW7NW8
1 day agoCalmCalmNW4NW4N5N6CalmCalmN5NW8NW4W3NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W5W7NW7NW9NW7
2 days agoN4N6NW5N5N4N7N7NE9NE8NE6NE8NE8NE6NE4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NW3

Tide / Current Tables for State Road 312, Matanzas River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Crescent Beach, Matanzas River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.