Monday, October23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
St. Augustine South, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 6:46PM Monday October 23, 2017 8:06 PM EDT (00:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:50AMMoonset 8:43PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 234 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
.small craft exercise caution...
Tonight..South southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers likely in the evening. Isolated Thunderstorms through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.
Tuesday..West northwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning.
Tuesday night..North northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet after midnight. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..North northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Friday..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Friday night..East northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Inland waters a light chop. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..North northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 234 Pm Edt Mon Oct 23 2017
Synopsis.. A strong cold front will sweep across the region tonight. A line of showers with embedded Thunderstorms is expected along the front as it moves across the area. High pressure will build over the region for the remainder of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Augustine South CDP, FL
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location: 29.87, -81.31     debug

Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 231843
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
243 pm edt Mon oct 23 2017

Near term (tonight)
A short wave rotating through the base of the upper level trough
is giving is a bit of a negative tilt and a low level jet streak
moving out of the gulf and across the southeast is gouging out the
shower and thunderstorm activity over the region. Still expect to
see a broken line of showers and thunderstorms near and ahead of
the frontal surface later this afternoon and tonight. Not sure we
are going to see strong or severe activity and believe it will be
over the higher instability air over the coastal waters if it does
happen. Looks like the majority of the prefrontal shower activity
should be clearing the southeastern counties between 10 p.M. And
midnight with a very thin band of light rainfall or drizzle along
the frontal surface overnight. Behind the front and with the
925-850 mb trough still over the region look for low cloudiness to
hang in until we get enough sunshine on Tuesday for diurnal
heating to erode them away. Overnight lows are going to dip into
the mid 50s over georgia and the suwannee valley with a 4 to 8 mph
northeasterly flow overnight will be jacket and sweatshirt weather
for the morning commute.

Short term (Tuesday and Wednesday)
With the upper level trough still to the west of the region and a
low level flow coming in off the gulf will see low cloudiness
hang on until late morning. Still we are not at the time of year
where Sun angles and temperatures are low enough to allow it to
hang on all day, so expect the low deck to lift to about 5 kft
between 10 a.M. And noon in most places. Should see some
visibility restrictions in the early morning hours but generally
between 4 to 6sm in light fog. Of course some local areas will
drop down lower and might see 2 to 4 sm in some of the more fog
prone areas. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid 70s to
near 80 with the warmest temperatures in the southern areas and
along the immediate coast. Minimum afternoon relative humidity
values should be in the mid 30 to lower 40 percent range.

By Wednesday, reinforcing shot of colder air arrives behind
today's front as a shortwave moves off the upper level low in the
great lakes. Despite the sunshine, daytime highs in the mid 60s
across southeast georgia and low 70s across northeast florida are
expected. Lows Wednesday night will reach the low 40s inland, and
low to mid 50s at the beaches.

Long term (Thursday through Monday)
Heights rise quickly behind the shortwave and flow turns more
westerly aloft. At the surface, high pressure develops across the
southern tier states and moves north across the carolinas. Plenty
of sunshine will allow an afternoon high around 70 across the area
which is still a few degrees below normal for late october. With
clear skies to start, and mainly offshore flow expected radiational
cooling Thursday night could lead to another cool evening with
temperatures dropping into the 50s and upper 40s before midnight.

Overnight, surface flow shifts onshore and upper level flow
becomes more southwesterly, and low stratus ceilings and or fog
could develop during the predawn hours on Friday, especially east
of highway 301 in northeast florida. The overall dry air mass and
clear skies will be slow to erode locally, but afternoon highs on
Friday should rebound to the mid 70s.

Deep long wave trough expected to develop this weekend across the
plains and move into the midwest. Another cold front will likely
push southward towards the southeast sometime during the weekend,
though timing shifts between model runs. A surface low is also
expected to develop across the eastern gulf, and some low end
chances pops remain in the forecast for the weekend though the
exact track and development are not clear at this time.

Should see a band of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon
between 21-01 utc with ceilings between 2.0-3.5 kft, beyond 02 utc
a low deck of stratus with ceilings between 500-1,500 feet agl
should advect in over the main fields and will take into mid
Tuesday morning for that deck to burn off. Some visibility
restrictions of 1 2 to 2 sm expected from near sunrise to about 16
utc in the main problem areas such as kjax, kvqq and kgnv

Expect the small craft advisory conditions to continue over the
offshore leg and the exercise caution over the near shore leg
through Monday night as the frontal passage takes place overnight.

With the front pushing south of the waters on Tuesday winds will
be light north to northwesterly and then as the high builds in
over Tuesday night and Wednesday we will increase winds to small
craft advisory conditions for Wednesday into Thursday.

Rip currents... Moderate risk of rip currents on Tuesday due to the
remaining swell.

One more day of possible tidal flooding for the st johns river
basin in putnam county before flooding is expected to subside with
offshore winds.

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 58 76 46 66 40 10 0 0
ssi 68 80 56 68 60 10 0 0
jax 63 80 52 69 50 10 0 0
sgj 67 81 56 70 50 20 10 0
gnv 63 79 48 69 40 10 0 0
ocf 65 80 51 70 50 10 0 0

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... Coastal flood advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for putnam.

Ga... None.

Am... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for waters from
altamaha sound ga to fernandina beach fl from 20 to 60 nm-
waters from fernandina beach to st. Augustine fl from 20 to
60 nm-waters from st. Augustine to flagler beach fl from 20
to 60 nm.

Sandrik elsenheimer

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 3 mi67 min SSE 15 G 16 79°F 79°F1013.2 hPa (-0.0)
RCYF1 14 mi49 min 78°F
41117 15 mi75 min 78°F6 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 15 mi82 min S 4.1 80°F 1015 hPa75°F
LTJF1 36 mi49 min 75°F
MYPF1 - 8720218 - Mayport (Bar Pilots Dock), FL 37 mi49 min SSW 6 G 8.9 74°F 78°F1013.2 hPa
JXUF1 37 mi49 min 78°F
BLIF1 38 mi49 min S 8 G 9.9 75°F 1014 hPa
DMSF1 38 mi49 min 78°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL7 mi2.2 hrsS 75.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity Haze80°F75°F85%1013 hPa

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE11SE9SE9SE12SE7SE9S6SE7S7S8S7S5S6S10S11S10S9S10S10
1 day agoE12E16--E14SE22
2 days agoNE14E12E13--E14E13E12E11E12E12E11E8E8E11E11E12E14E14E12E15E12E11NE11E11

Tide / Current Tables for State Road 312, Matanzas River, Florida
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State Road 312
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Mon -- 05:22 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:50 AM EDT     4.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:09 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent Beach, Matanzas River, Florida
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Crescent Beach
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Mon -- 12:06 AM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:27 PM EDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:01 PM EDT     1.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.