Tuesday, June18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Augustine, FL

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Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:30PM Tuesday June 18, 2019 7:15 AM EDT (11:15 UTC) Moonrise 8:49PMMoonset 6:28AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ454 Expires:201906181515;;666614 Fzus52 Kjax 180705 Cwfjax Coastal Waters Forecast For Northeast Florida/southeast Georgia National Weather Service Jacksonville Fl 305 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2019 Atlantic Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves, Along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Amz450-452-454-181515- Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 305 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2019
Today..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..West southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Inland waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Inland waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Inland waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday night..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Inland waters choppy.
Friday..West southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Inland waters a moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Friday night..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop.
Saturday..North northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Inland waters a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 305 Am Edt Tue Jun 18 2019
Synopsis.. A trough of low pressure will lift northward through the waters today and will remain north of the region through the period. An elevated offshore southwesterly will develop and continue as high pressure ridge sets up south of the waters this week. Daily offshore moving storms are expected with gusty winds, heavy rainfall and dangerous lightning at times.
Gulf stream.. The approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jun 18, 2019 at 1200 utc... 64 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 73 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 85 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 102 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island. This data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Augustine, FL
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location: 29.88, -81.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Jacksonville, FL
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Fxus62 kjax 180807
afdjax
area forecast discussion
national weather service jacksonville fl
407 am edt Tue jun 18 2019

Wet with numerous showers and storms this week...

Hotter by the weekend with heat indices around 105f...

Near term today-tonight
Today... Low pressure trough at the surface and aloft over central
fl this morning will lift northward across NE fl later this
morning and through SE ga this afternoon. This will lead to
numerous showers and embedded storms today that will track from
south to north around 10 to 15 mph. The earlier timing of the
storms across NE fl will hold MAX temps into the mid to upper
80s, while a slightly later start into the afternoon from i-10
northward across SE ga will allow for MAX temps closer to 90
degrees. Precipitable water amounts (pwats) close to 2 inches
associated with this trof will help to support rain chances in the
50-70% range today along with locally heavy rainfall as main
impact with some strong gusty winds with the more intense cells
over SE ga where more heating can occur and slightly faster storm
motion is expected by the afternoon hours.

Tonight... Trof lifts NE of the region tonight and expect most of
the shower and storm activity to fade quickly by sunset over NE fl
while deeper SW flow aloft will continue storm chances until
midnight across SE ga. Overnight... Mainly dry conds expected over
coastal areas along the i-95 corridor, while the SW flow out of
the gomex will continue scattered showers and isolated storms
chances along the i-75 corridor of inland NE fl up through the
suwannee river valley into SE ga. Overnight lows in the lower to
middle 70s expected with some low stratus clouds but not expecting
significant fog formation.

Short term (Wednesday through Thursday night)
Shortwave troughing will be migrating eastward across the
carolinas on Wednesday, with a trailing vorticity lobe crossing
our region during the afternoon hours. There could be a couple of
rounds of convection on Wednesday, as convection initiated
overnight in deep southwest flow over the northeast gulf of mexico
moves into the suwannee valley around sunrise and potentially
holds together all the way to the atlantic coast by late morning.

A more widespread round of convection will likely develop along
the gulf coast sea breeze during the late morning and early
afternoon hours, with activity racing eastward and reaching the
atlantic coast by mid-afternoon. Likely pops were placed in the
forecast grids nearly area-wide, but widespread severe weather
appears to be unlikely due to mild mid-level temperatures and weak
speed shear. A few storms may pulse as they approach the i-95
corridor, with a wet microbursts possible over northeast and north
central florida as pwat values remain near 2 inches. Otherwise,
the atlantic low level ridge axis will remain displaced across
south florida, with brisk west-southwesterly flow keeping the
atlantic sea breeze boundary pinned along the coast during the
afternoon hours and allowing highs to climb to around 90 at most
locations, except upper 80s over the suwannee valley and north
central florida, where morning convection is expected to develop.

Zonal flow aloft will prevail in the wake of the departing
shortwave trough on Wednesday night, with the next upstream
shortwave trough moving quickly east-northeastward towards the
ohio valley. Deep southwest flow will likely develop nocturnal
convection over the northeast gulf, with scattered activity moving
onshore along the big bend and nature coasts during the predawn
hours and into the western suwannee valley and western marion
county around sunrise. Lows will only fall to the low to mid 70s,
except upper 70s at the coast.

The shortwave trough and its accompanying strengthening surface
low pressure center will continue moving east-northeastward across
the ohio valley and the eastern great lakes states. The trailing
vorticity lobe associated with this system will move across
southeast georgia during the afternoon hours, resulting in
widespread convection for most of inland southeast georgia and the
northern suwannee valley during the afternoon hours. Slightly
drier air will prevail for locations south of interstate 10 on
Thursday afternoon, with pwat values of 1.6-1.8 inches expected to
result in widely scattered coverage of afternoon thunderstorms
that will be triggered by the gulf coast sea breeze. Strengthening
speed shear over southeast georgia may result in strong to
isolated severe thunderstorm development, with a few strong
thunderstorms possible as activity approaches the northeast
florida coast during the mid to late afternoon. The strengthening
low pressure center well north of our region will tighten our
local pressure gradient, resulting in breezy west southwest winds
area-wide by the mid to late morning hours. Later developing and
less widespread convection will allow highs to soar to the low and
mid 90s for locations east of i-75, with highs around 90 along
the i-75 corridor where convection will develop and cloudiness
will increase by early afternoon.

Deepening low pressure will reach new england by late Thursday
night, driving a frontal boundary into the southeastern states.

This boundary and deep westerly flow could regenerate widely
scattered convection over inland southeast georgia overnight, with
some isolated convection possible towards sunrise over the
western suwannee valley. Lows will only fall to the mid 70s inland
and the upper 70s at the coast.

Long term (Friday through Monday)
West-northwesterly flow aloft will develop locally on Friday as
troughing deepens along the new england and mid-atlantic coasts,
while ridging aloft over the western gulf of mexico begins
expanding northward. A remnant frontal boundary will stall near
the altamaha river and shortwave troughing cresting the ridge axis
to our west should trigger numerous afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms for locations north of a line from gainesville
to st. Augustine, with only widely scattered coverage forecast for
north central florida, where a slightly drier air mass will
prevail. Highs will again climb to the low and mid 90s for all
locations east of i-75, with highs around 90 along and west of
i-75 in the suwannee valley and north central florida.

Temperatures aloft will begin to cool to around -8 -9 degrees
celsius at 500 millibars (20,000 feet), likely resulting in strong
to isolated severe thunderstorm development during the afternoon
and early evening hours, with strong downburst winds being the
primary hazard. Ridging aloft will then expand across the gulf of
mexico this weekend and early next week, with a drier and deeper
northwesterly flow suppressing convective coverage over much of
our region. However, a gradually loosening pressure gradient over
our area will allow the atlantic sea breeze to develop each
afternoon, and continued cooling temperatures aloft could result
in strong to severe thunderstorm development each afternoon and
evening this weekend and into early next week along the i-95
corridor. Highs will soar into the mid and possibly upper 90s at
inland locations, with the afternoon sea breeze keeping coastal
highs mostly in the lower 90s. Heat index values will climb to
around 105 degrees each afternoon. Lows will only fall to the low
to mid 70s inland and the upper 70s at the coast.

Aviation
Early morning satl imagery showing large area of ifr MVFR cigs
spreading northward through north central fl from ocala to palm
coast and will impact NE fl TAF sites this morning with CIGS in
the 500-1500 ft range through 13z. Shower activity with MVFR cigs
expected in the 13-16z time frame before enough diurnal heating
helps to trigger storms at all TAF sites in the 16-22z time frame
and have included tempo groups at all TAF sites for continued MVFR
cigs vsbys with gusty winds to 25 knots expected. Most shower
activity should be over by the 23-00z time frame and have posted
vfr conds for all TAF sites for now.

Marine
Trof lifting north through the waters today with mainly southerly
winds in the 10-15 knot range with seas 2-4 ft. Winds shift
offshore out of the southwest tonight and continue through the end
of the week as low pressure trof remains north of the waters and
high pressure ridge sets up across the southern fl peninsula. The
pressure gradient will increase enough to warrant small craft
exercise caution levels at times with winds 15-20 knots and seas
3-6 ft. Small window of possible small craft advisory (sca) flags
with 20 knots and seas 4-7 ft in the thu-fri time frame.

Rip currents: low risk developing today in the south to southwest
flow with surf breakers around 2 feet.

Climate
Intense thunderstorm at gainesville (gnv), fl yesterday afternoon
produced a wind gust to 39 mph, but more impressive was the 1.44"
of rainfall that fell in just under an hour between 230 pm and 330
pm which set top 10 short duration rainfall records for the month
of june since the ASOS was installed at the gnv airport in 1998.

0.38" in 5 minutes (june rank 7th)
0.63" in 10 minutes (june rank 7th)
0.89" in 15 minutes (june rank 3rd)
1.27" in 30 minutes (june rank 6th)
1.44" in 60 minutes (june rank 10th)

Preliminary point temps pops
Amg 91 72 91 73 70 40 60 20
ssi 86 76 91 78 70 30 60 10
jax 91 74 91 75 70 20 60 20
sgj 88 74 91 76 70 20 50 20
gnv 88 73 88 73 70 30 70 30
ocf 87 73 87 73 70 30 70 30

Jax watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Am... None.

Hess nelson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SAUF1 - St. Augustine, FL 3 mi15 min SSW 6 G 8 75°F 80°F1017 hPa (+0.5)74°F
41117 15 mi45 min 79°F3 ft
GTXF1 - Guana Tolomato Matanzas Reserve, FL 16 mi90 min S 1 73°F 1018 hPa73°F

Wind History for I-295 Bridge, St Johns River, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Northeast Florida Regional Airport, FL6 mi19 minSSW 310.00 miOvercast75°F73°F94%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from SGJ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE7SE9SE10SE13SE10SE11SE12SE13SE13SE11
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1 day agoE6--SE5NE6E9E11E10E10E10SE12SE7SE8SE7SE4CalmS4SW4SW3S3CalmS3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE6NE9E9NE8NE11NE12NE11E12E10E10E9E10E9E7E5NE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for State Road 312, Matanzas River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Crescent Beach, Matanzas River, Florida
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Jacksonville, FL (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Jacksonville, FL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.