Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Perry, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 5:38PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 7:38 AM EST (12:38 UTC) Moonrise 10:24AMMoonset 9:08PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 335 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Today..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers in the evening. Showers likely with isolated Thunderstorms through the night.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, showers likely in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms through the night.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning, then slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night and Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 335 Am Est Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis..Winds will start ramping up to just below advisory levels across the northeast gulf today. Expect cautionary conditions to prevail through Friday, falling below headline levels by Friday evening through the remainder of the weekend. Rain should be expected through Friday evening, with the heaviest rain expected tonight through Thursday afternoon.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Perry, FL
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location: 29.97, -83.83     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 221116
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
616 am est Wed nov 22 2017

Aviation [through 12z Thursday]
Lifr conditions are currently being observed at tlh and vld, with
low end ifr conditions at ecp at this hour. Vsby and CIGS will
gradually improve over the next several hours at these sites.

Expect MVFR CIGS to linger at nearly all sites through the period.

Ra will spread across the region Wednesday evening, affecting
most terminals Wednesday night into Thursday.

Prev discussion [316 am est]
Near term [through today]
Given wet soil from rain yesterday afternoon, patchy fog is
currently affecting portions of the tri-state region this morning.

Conditions will be slow to improve after sunrise, therefore anyone
who is planning to travel this morning should plan more time to
get to their destination and use low beam headlights.

Mostly cloudy conditions will linger through the day, as the
second in a series of shortwave troughs and associated gulf lows
approaches the region today. Given the current trajectory and
speed of the aforementioned low, shower activity will likely
remain offshore through much of the period, with the likely onset
of activity over land occuring this evening. Modest pwat values
will keep precipitation efficacy limited, thus keeping the threat
for any heavy rainfall and flooding with this activity low.

Widespread cloud cover will keep daytime heating limited, as highs
will remain limited to the upper 60s to low 70s region wide.

Short term [tonight through Friday]
The shortwave dropping into the western gulf this morning will
spread eastward across the entire gomex before lifting northeast
into the western atlantic on Friday evening. Convection ongoing
in the western gulf initiated as the shortwave moved across a
surface temperature gradient where anomalously high sst's exist.

Models agree that further deepening of a surface low should be
expected through Thursday as the shortwave passes over the even
warmer loop current. As the surface low deepens, low-level winds
will strengthen, resulting in a large area of strong isentropic
ascent across the northeast gulf tonight, spreading into the big
bend, north-central florida, and southeast georgia early Thursday
morning. In the presence of a pre-existing coastal front and a
southward advancing wedge front, surface frontogenesis will be
maximized as the southerly winds ramp up tonight through Thursday
morning. Additionally, a plume of anomalously high pwats will
spread into the aforementioned areas. Considering the ingredients,
there exists the potential for heavy rainfall primarily late
tonight through early Thursday afternoon and wpc has placed the
above mentioned region under a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall. See the hydrology discussion below for more detailed
rainfall forecasts and expected impacts.

While the surface low and shortwave wont be completely out of the
gulf until Friday evening, as the surface low moves east and the
wedge moves through the region, isentropic ascent will be cut off
with deep layer subsidence increasing through Friday. Thus,
expect a drying trend starting late Thursday afternoon and a
mostly dry day on Friday with only scattered light to moderate
rain expected in the southeast big bend of florida. While much
less rain is expected on Friday, expect cloud cover to remain
until the frontal system departs Friday night. Highs will
generally be in the middle 60s, with overnight lows in the 40s and
50s through the period.

Long term [Friday night through Wednesday]
No rain is expected through the extended range as the eastern
conus trough will progress eastward and eventually deep layer
ridging will take over. Expect seasonable highs and lows through
the period.

Marine
Winds will start ramping up to just below advisory levels across
the northeast gulf today. Expect cautionary conditions to prevail
through Friday, falling below headline levels by Friday evening
through the remainder of the weekend. Rain should be expected
through Friday evening, with the heaviest rain expected tonight
through Thursday afternoon.

Fire weather
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected through the
next several days, as rh's will remain well above critical levels
with high chances for wetting rains. Drier conditions are expected
for the weekend.

Hydrology
There'll likely be a sharp QPF gradient over the next day or so
that will depend upon where exactly the strongest winds and
surface convergence align. In general, the heaviest rain should be
expected in the eastern big bend and south-central southeast
georgia tonight through Thursday morning. In these areas expect
average rainfall totals on the order of 1-2", however, isolated
higher amounts could range from 3-6" (especially closer to the big
bend coast). Luckily we're in need of rain and flash flood
guidance suggest these amounts won't be too concerning. As far as
the river systems are concerned, many rivers in the aforementioned
region are in low stage, or at least near it. Ensemble guidance
suggests that even reasonable worst case scenario rainfall amounts
will be unable to force the suwannee into even action stage. Thus,
the potential for flash or river flooding appears low with
Thursday and Friday's frontal system.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 72 57 65 51 66 10 50 50 20 20
panama city 71 55 67 53 66 20 20 20 10 10
dothan 70 49 65 46 65 0 10 10 10 10
albany 71 53 62 47 64 0 20 20 10 20
valdosta 72 56 63 51 62 10 40 50 30 30
cross city 74 59 67 54 66 20 60 90 60 60
apalachicola 72 58 67 55 66 30 60 40 30 20

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Pullin
short term... Harrigan
long term... Harrigan
aviation... Pullin
marine... Harrigan
fire weather... Pullin
hydrology... Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 16 mi38 min E 1.9 G 2.9 60°F 1014.5 hPa (+0.8)
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 25 mi104 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 59°F 1014 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 57 mi113 min NNE 4.1 58°F 58°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Perry-Foley, Perry-Foley Airport, FL15 mi63 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist58°F57°F97%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from 40J (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4N3NE5NE4NE7NE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmNE4Calm
1 day agoNE4E5NE4E4E8NE7E4E4CalmN3CalmNE3CalmE3E4E3CalmE4E3CalmNE4E3CalmCalm
2 days agoN11N10
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N11N8N5N4CalmCalmN4N5N3N3CalmN4N5NE5NE3NE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Rock Islands, Florida
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Rock Islands
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:59 AM EST     3.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:15 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:37 PM EST     2.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:08 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:01 PM EST     1.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.633.132.521.30.70.2-000.41.11.82.42.82.82.62.21.71.41.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Spring Warrior Creek, Florida
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Spring Warrior Creek
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:52 AM EST     3.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:14 AM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:23 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:31 PM EST     2.83 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:35 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 09:07 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:00 PM EST     1.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
22.633.12.92.51.91.20.60.2-000.41.11.82.42.82.82.52.11.71.31.21.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.