Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

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Sunrise 6:28AMSunset 7:38PM Saturday August 18, 2018 11:05 PM CDT (04:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:48PMMoonset 12:10AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 947 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 18 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers likely in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 947 Pm Cdt Sat Aug 18 2018
Synopsis..A ridge of high pressure will prevail over the northern gulf of mexico through the weekend into early next week. A cold front will enter the coastal waters early Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 182024
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
324 pm cdt Sat aug 18 2018

Short term
Convection has been quite onery this afternoon in association with
the lake breeze process. Earlier convection in the coastal waters
this morning was the result of remnant outflow from Friday's
activity that was detected in a 0.5 mb meso-analysis extending from
a divot 1018mb low over st tammany parish to well off the coast.

Outflow from that convection merged with the lake breeze in such a
way to bring the propagation vector in opposition to the mean flow
for slow moving, train echoes along the south shore of lake
pontchartrain. This typically occurs 2-3 times a summer when the
flow pattern is optimal. Mean flow this morning was generally from
the sw, with anvil exhaust from the ne. Morning chap run on 12z
sounding did show efficient rain potential on the order of 5.78 to
8.18 inches possible. While we haven't seen any accumulations this
high just yet, instantaneous rates did run 5-6 in hr at times in
central city of new orleans westward into st. Charles parish. Away
from the lake breeze influence, the rest of the area is just seeing
scattered, small cell and short-lived convection with much lighter
rain rates. All of this activity should die with sunset, but with
some nocturnal regeneration where these newer outflows interact with
the land breeze convergence overnight. GFS is hinting at another
similar situation possibly unfolding for Sunday, enhancing on lake
and gulf breeze boundaries in afternoon heating. Pattern really
doesn't change much for Monday, so persistence seems to be the main
theme of the short-term period. We are intending to issue a small
flash flood watch for Sunday and Monday across the south shore
parishes to account for efficient rainfall processes and torrential
rain rates on the lake breeze once again the next two days. Model
precipitable water values linger around 2.2-2.3 inches the next
couple of afternoons before shifting focus Tuesday.

Long term
Frontal zone is expected to settle southward as troughing to the
northeast digs a bit, just enough to bring surface front to and
possibly through the forecast area, possibly aided by accompanying
convection Tuesday. Very little in the way of temperature advection
noted in either the GFS or ecmwf, but some drainage influences may
allow morning temperatures to approach the lower 70s to even upper
60s in the northern fringes of the forecast area. Nice part of the
forecast is short dry and slightly less humid Thursday. Moisture
appears to recover for next weekend with dissipated front and a
return to sea breeze regime convection pattern.

Aviation
Vfr conditions to prevail outside of convective activity most
terminals. Some patchy radiational fog may develop overnight in
areas that saw rainfall this afternoon, but should lift by 1330z and
not sure if any of the terminals would be directly impacted.

Marine
Typical summer bermuda high pattern in place to maintain relatively
light onshore flow and low seas outside of convection. Frontal zone
likely to reach the coast early Wednesday, likely accompanied with
squall line thunderstorms that push in the coastal waters. This will
enhance winds and produce rough seas in its wake Tuesday night into
Wednesday morning.

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: monitoring heavy rain flash flood threat through
Monday.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 73 89 73 89 40 70 10 40
btr 75 90 75 88 20 60 20 50
asd 76 89 77 89 20 70 30 50
msy 77 89 78 89 20 70 20 50
gpt 77 88 77 88 30 70 40 50
pql 76 89 77 89 20 60 30 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Flash flood watch from Sunday morning through Monday evening for
laz058-060>064.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

24 rr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi35 min SSW 1 G 1.9 82°F 89°F1016.6 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi35 min SE 1.9 G 2.9 79°F 86°F1016.1 hPa
CARL1 23 mi35 min 86°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi35 min SE 9.9 G 11 78°F 86°F1016.3 hPa
FREL1 39 mi35 min S 4.1 G 4.1 79°F 1015.1 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi35 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 78°F 87°F1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi72 minS 310.00 miFair81°F73°F79%1015.4 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair75°F0°F%1016 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS4S6CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm3E8SE33S8S10S7SW5SW3NE3NE5SW5CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmNW7CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4SW9S9SW8S8SW11SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmSE5S3S3CalmE6CalmCalmSE7S9S8S5S4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:50 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:34 AM CDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:42 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:53 PM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.60.70.811.11.21.41.51.51.51.51.41.31.210.80.70.60.40.40.30.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Chef Menteur
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:50 AM CDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:06 AM CDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:43 PM CDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:36 PM CDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:53 PM CDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.40.50.60.70.911.11.11.21.21.21.11.10.90.80.70.50.40.30.20.10.10.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.