Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 7:17PM Monday March 27, 2017 7:22 PM CDT (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 6:43AMMoonset 7:01PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Mississippi Sound-lake Borgne- 339 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 339 Pm Cdt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain centered over the eastern gulf through Wednesday. A low pressure system and associated frontal boundary will impact the waters on Thursday. High pressure is expected to build back over the area by Friday. The high should be east of the area by Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 272122
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
422 pm cdt Mon mar 27 2017

Short term The main focus of the forecast will be on Thursday's
system and then a little look into the end of the weekend system.

As for today so far so good, quiet and warming up quickly. A few
showers did develop across our northern zones and pushed north
into southern ms.

Tonight through Wed night... Generally a quiet forecast. The system
leading to the severe weather to our north today will continue to
drive east with a cold front stalling well north of the region. A
ridge will build in beginning late tonight and slide east through
wed with our next system sliding into the tx/ok panhandles. This
should keep use relatively quiet and on the warm side. Conditions
will begin to deteriorate overnight Wed but more so Thu as the
next potent system impacts the region. /cab/

Long term Greatest concern in the forecast is with the system
thu/thu night and with the active pattern we are in another system
sun-Monday. Overall the medium range mdls are in decent agreement
with the overall pattern through sat. The difference is in the
details which not surprisingly could have significant impacts with
the weather over our area Thu and into Thu night. After Sat the
mdls diverge significantly with how they handle the deep low over
the 4 corners region.

As for Thu we could see quite an active day and possibly into the
evening hours. The next system in the wave is already digging into
the 4 corners as we speak. It should close off tonight and then push
into the tx/ok panhandles wed. This system will spark severe weather
over 2 days (tue and wed) across the southern plains and into the
arklatex. By midday Thu it should lift towards the ozarks with the
trough axis swinging into and through the lower ms valley Thu and
thu night. At the sfc a deepening sfc low will move into the mid ms
valley with a trailing cold front expected to push through thu
night. The combination of strong forcing, an approaching cold
front, and abundant moisture should lead to numerous if not
widespread showers and thunderstorms.

As for the risk of strong to severe weather, many ingredients appear
to be coming together but depending on the mdl where they come
together is key. The trough will swing into the region and at some
point become negatively tilted providing quite a bit of forcing.

One issue already is when does the trough axis become neutral and
then negatively tilted. The kinematic field looks very favorable
with h5 winds at or even slightly stronger than 50 kts swinging
through the area. The low lvl winds will be around 25 to 35 kts
out of the S or ssw. These are both more than sufficient but
probably the most impressive feature is the possible development
of a coupled jet structure providing significant difluence aloft.

The biggest question with this feature is where that sets up. The
gfs is right over our area and lifting to the northeast while the
ecmwf is over our coastal waters and then to the ene.

Where the two models do agree is with the thermodynamic field. Both
mdls have ample instability to work with. Sfc based CAPE is expected
to be around 2k j/kg, showalters values of around -5 to -6, and a
very steep lapse rate with mid lvl lapse rates of 7 to 8 c/km.

The combination of the instability, forcing/wind field, and moisture
suggest a decent risk of severe weather. The question is coverage.

If the location of the upper jet feature is over our area then we
could see rapid development of severe storms Thursday afternoon.

But if this lines up farther south there will likely be quite a
bit of convection over the coastal waters and would essentially
cut the region off. Another issue for us to watch is the eventual
evolution of severe weather to our west. If this activity pushes
east and into our region faster than anticipated it could leave a
lot of left over convective debris over the area and not allow
the region to destabilize like expected.

Right now we feel confident that we will have showers and
thunderstorms and at the least a few strong to severe but not quite
sure if this will be a widespread event yet. The potential is there
for a significant severe weather event with large hail and damaging
winds the primary concern but as usual you can not rule out a few
tornadoes.

Things will remain quiet Fri and Sat but heading into Sun we could
become active once again. The next deep low should begin to lift out
into the southern plains over the weekend and put the region under
sw flow aloft. This would send multiple impulses across the region
with the possibility of a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms
Sunday and into Monday. /cab/

Aviation
After 00z, winds should begin to die off as daytime heating wanes.

This drop off in winds will also allow for another low level
inversion to begin forming, and expect to see another round of low
ceilings and fog take hold after 08z. Ceilings should drop down to
lifr range of 300 to 500 feet by 10z and remain at these levels
through around 14 to 15z. Visibilities should also drop off in
response to the lower ceilings with most areas remaining between 1
and 3 miles. However, kmcb could once again fall to around 1/2 mile
for an hour or two around 12z. After 15z, enough mixing of the
boundary layer should occur to increase ceilings back into MVFR and
fuel alternate range of around 1500 to 2000 feet. By 18z,VFR
conditions should be in place at all of the terminals as ceilings
lift above 3000 feet.

Marine
A persistent onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots will continue through
tomorrow. Seas will generally range from 2 to 4 feet in response to
these winds. The pressure gradient over the gulf will increase on
Wednesday as a low pressure system approaches from the west. Expect
to see onshore flow increase to 15 to 20 knots by Wednesday morning
over the western waters, and then spread eastward to the eastern
waters by Wednesday night. As winds increase, seas will also rise
to 4 to 6 feet by Wednesday night. These conditions will then
persist through Thursday as the low passes through the region. By
Thursday night and Friday as the low pulls east of the area, winds
will turn more westerly and gradually decrease to less than 10 knots
by Friday afternoon as high pressure passes directly over the
waters. As the high pushes toward the eastern gulf on Saturday,
winds will turn southeasterly and increase back to near 15 knots.

This increase in wind speed will be directly related to another low
pressure system approaching from the west.

Decision support
Dss code... Green.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... None.

Decision support service (dss) code legend:
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk of severe weather;
nearby tropical events, hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 65 84 64 85 / 20 10 10 10
btr 67 86 65 87 / 20 10 10 10
asd 67 84 65 84 / 10 10 10 0
msy 68 84 68 85 / 10 10 10 10
gpt 68 80 67 81 / 10 10 10 10
pql 66 81 64 82 / 10 10 10 0

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.

Short/long term: cab
aviation/marine: pg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi53 min S 13 G 17 75°F 76°F1014.3 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi53 min S 11 G 16 77°F 73°F1013.6 hPa
CARL1 23 mi53 min 57°F
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 27 mi93 min S 7.8 G 16 77°F 1013.9 hPa (-1.6)68°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi53 min S 9.9 G 17 74°F 76°F1013.6 hPa
FREL1 39 mi53 min S 12 G 16 78°F 1012.6 hPa65°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi53 min S 8 G 11 77°F 78°F1014 hPa

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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SE11
G16
SE7
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G15
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SE10
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S5
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G10
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SE14
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G27
SE18
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G25
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G24
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S8
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G23
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G25
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G24
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G25
S17
G24
NW19
G27
NW11
G14
E6
SE10

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi30 minS 1010.00 miA Few Clouds77°F66°F71%1013 hPa
New Orleans, Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi28 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy79°F69°F72%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE6SE6SE6SE5SE10
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1 day agoS4S3CalmCalmS4S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S8S7S8S6S6S9S11S11S10S10
2 days agoSE11
G19
SE13
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SE11SE11
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G15
S10S8S8SE9S9S11
G21
S9S9S13S9
G22
NW11
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4S4S6SE5SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:20 AM CDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:19 PM CDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:28 PM CDT     0.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM CDT     New Moon
Mon -- 10:17 PM CDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.70.70.80.80.70.70.60.50.50.40.40.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Chef Menteur
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:12 AM CDT     0.72 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:02 PM CDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:22 PM CDT     0.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:01 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:15 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:59 PM CDT     New Moon
Mon -- 10:28 PM CDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.60.60.70.70.70.70.60.50.40.30.30.30.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.