Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:05PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 10:42 PM CDT (03:42 UTC) Moonrise 1:11AMMoonset 1:17PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 1029 Pm Cdt Tue Jun 25 2019
Rest of tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds near 5 knots becoming north in the late evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Isolated showers in the evening.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms through the day.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated showers through the night.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Isolated Thunderstorms in the evening. Isolated showers through the night.
Sunday..Northeast winds near 5 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Isolated showers after midnight.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1029 Pm Cdt Tue Jun 25 2019
Synopsis..Surface high pressure will build over the northern gulf and central gulf coast region through Thursday, then a trough of weak low pressure may approach from the east on Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 260316
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1016 pm cdt Tue jun 25 2019

Update
Scattered thunderstorms remained robust through the early evening
hours as they moved across mainly areas near and north of the
tidal lakes and i-10, however the convection moved fairly quickly
eastward across the mississippi coastal counties and have since
moved out of the forecast area. More pleasant rain and outflow
cooled air and even lower dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s
with north winds have made it feel like a weak cold front moved
through. Have updated the forecast to account for the latest
trends, and removed mention of rain from the late evening
forecast. 22 td

Prev discussion issued 352 pm cdt Tue jun 25 2019
synopsis...

latest surface analysis showed a 1019mb high over north central
and northeast gulf of mexico and weak pressure gradient of 1mb
change from mississippi coastal waters to the mid-south. Surface
dewpoint values remained in the 70s across southeast louisiana and
southern mississippi. A light southwest flow was noted over the
forecast area, slightly higher wind speeds near the coast and
south of lake pontchartrain.

Upper air analysis showed a negatively tilted low trough axis
north the great lakes region and westerly flow over from the
plains to ohio valley. In addition, a positively tilted trough
axis was located from north louisiana to south texas and a high
over northeast gulf and florida panhandle. Precipitable water
values on a planer view indicated a moisture axis of 2 inches
along the texas coast 1.6 to 1.8 inches southwest louisiana to
florida panhandle.

Short term...

with the trough axis in the northern stream lifting northeast,
heights will generally increase over the southeast conus. This
movement will allow the upper level high over northeast gulf to
drift northwest over the forecast area through Thursday. This will
suppress general motion upward motion. However, 5h temps around
-9c will slowly decrease to -10c. As a result, rain chances will
be slightly below norm on Wednesday but isolated to scattered
storms can not be ruled especially across the northern zones.

Ridge axis will reestablish over the plains on Friday leaving a
weakness from louisiana to georgia. However, mid layer flow will
become northwest to northeast Thursday and Thursday evening a few
strong storms with gusty winds can not be ruled out.

Long term...

weakness will try to develop into the inverted trough in the mid
layer and possibly a broad cyclonic circulation over the central
gulf coast. Precipitable water values will increase to up to 1.8
inches Friday afternoon. As a result, rain chances will increase
to 50 to 60 percent on Friday. Weak upper level trough low will
continue to shift east and maintain elevated rain chances on
Saturday. Upper level trough low will continue to the shift west
allowing a ridge to slowly build into the central gulf coast
Sunday through Tuesday of next week. Rain chances will decrease a
tad, actually back to normal summer time 30 percent for next week.

Aviation...

generallyVFR conditions are expected for the forecast period.

Isolated summertime pulse storms are possible at several terminals,
and will show this with vcts in tempo groups mainly kmcb and kbtr.

Marine...

surface high pressure will move over the area and this will lead to
a break down of the winds over the coastal waters with winds mainly
controlled by diurnal fluctuations. Seas will also subside to 1-2ft
as well. Still looks like conditions begin to become more favorable
for nocturnal storms over the coastal waters mid and late next week
as at least one easterly wave moves through the gulf.

Decision support...

dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: mississippi river flood warnings
marginal risk of severe weather this afternoon.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 70 93 70 93 10 20 20 30
btr 71 93 73 93 10 20 20 20
asd 71 93 73 94 30 20 20 20
msy 77 93 77 93 20 20 20 20
gpt 73 92 75 92 40 20 20 20
pql 70 95 72 94 20 20 20 20

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi55 min NE 14 G 16
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi55 min NNE 8 G 8.9
CARL1 23 mi55 min 80°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi55 min NE 11 G 15
FREL1 39 mi55 min N 2.9 G 5.1 80°F 1018.7 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi55 min Calm G 1.9

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi50 minNNE 89.00 miFair82°F70°F67%1019.1 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi48 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F72°F82%1019.5 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5SW5S7W653SW4CalmCalmN11
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NE3CalmCalm
1 day agoS8
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S9S9S9SW66N3CalmCalm3W3W33SW3SW4SW4S4SE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS6S3SE4S5S5SE5SE4S6S7S11S9
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Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:10 AM CDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:48 AM CDT     Last Quarter
Tue -- 05:40 AM CDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:59 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:17 PM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:12 PM CDT     0.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:03 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.60.50.50.40.40.40.40.50.50.60.70.70.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.