Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 5:02PM Monday December 10, 2018 6:44 AM CST (12:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:24AMMoonset 9:04PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 346 Am Cst Mon Dec 10 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 9 am cst this morning...
Today..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots during the morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tuesday..North winds 10 knots easing to near 5 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds near 5 knots becoming east in the late evening. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day. Chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night.
Friday..West winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
Friday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 346 Am Cst Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis..High pressure will build across the central gulf coast through Tuesday before shifting east of the area on Wednesday. A cold front will sweep across the coastal waters late Thursday and Thursday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 100929
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
329 am cst Mon dec 10 2018

Synopsis
High pressure extends from colorado into texas. Cold and dry air
extends well out into the gulf of mexico as noted by dew points
below 50 degrees. Cloud cover is decreasing just north and west of
our cwa, and this should move into the area over the next few
hours. At 2 am, temperatures were in the lower and middle 40s
across the area with dew points in the mid and upper 30s.

Short term
The high pressure to the west will shift slowly eastward over the
next few days, and be located over florida by midday on Wednesday.

Once clouds move out this morning, they should not return to any
great extent until the daytime hours on Wednesday, when onshore
flow will begin moisture return into the area. Rain will stay out
of the forecast through Wednesday, even though a shortwave will
move through the middle mississippi river valley on Wednesday.

Just not much of a chance for a deep layer of moisture to return
by then.

Looking at temperature readings 10 to 15 degrees below normal
today and tonight across the area. Areas to the north of lake
pontchartrain have already had several bouts of freezing
temperatures, so no warnings will be issued for the upper 20s and
low 30s forecast for that area tonight per local guidelines. One
area of concern for the southern half of the area would be for the
potential of freezing temperatures in the houma-thibodaux area. At
present, it appears any sub-freezing temperatures would be very
brief. Later shifts may need to put out a freeze warning if it
appears that several hours of sub-freezing temperatures took to
occur. Beyond tonight, temperatures moderate, with highs actually
above normal on Wednesday. Generally used a blend of guidance
temperatures. 35

Long term
Beyond Wednesday, plenty of spread appears between the GFS and
ecmwf solutions, with the GFS being about 18 hours faster on
features at 500 mb, and about 6 to 9 hours on surface features,
even as early as late in the day on Thursday. As an example, at
06z Saturday, the ECMWF has a strong upper low over lake
pontchartrain, while the GFS is over central georgia. At the same
time, the ECMWF has the surface feature near tupelo, ms, while the
gfs is beginning to develop a secondary low off the north carolina
coast. Currently, the ECMWF solutions are given a bit of a nod as
far as the forecast goes. Most of the precipitation is expected to
occur Thursday into Thursday night. The depth of moisture return
is somewhat questionable, as is the instability. Definitely an
abundance of shear, though, and the surface low may pass just far
enough north to allow the entire area to be in the warm sector of
the system. There is definitely some potential for severe weather
Thursday afternoon and evening, but enough uncertainty to prevent
spc from outlooking our area for now. Already have a mention of
thunderstorms in the hwo, and we may need to start bumping up the
wording in the next day or so if current trends continue. Would
note that with the upper low tracking as far south (and deep) as
it is forecast to, and the forecast thicknesses, precipitation
type could become interesting somewhere to the north of our area.

High pressure moves in behind the upper system for next weekend
with temperatures falling to near to below normal. Little to no
precipitation expected beyond Friday morning. Looking at 1000-500
mb thicknesses and forecast soundings, somewhat concerned that
Friday high temperatures may be a bit too warm, and have shaded
readings somewhat toward the lower end of the ensemble members for
much of the weekend. 35

Aviation
Skies will begin to clear this morning and this occur around sunrise
today.VFR conditions should remain through this TAF cycle with wind
speeds being the only issue and that will mainly affect msy and new.

Winds should ease late in the day and overnight.

Marine
Marine flags will continue through today as currently advertised.

Winds will begin to ease late in the day and overnight. Return flow
will develop as the high moves east Wednesday. South winds will
start fairly light Wednesday and slowly rise to around 25kt by
Thursday. A cold front should bring west and northwest winds back to
the marine areas Thursday night.

Decision support
Dss code: green
deployed: none
activation: none
activities: none
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events of national
significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 50 29 56 33 0 0 0 0
btr 52 29 57 35 0 0 0 0
asd 53 31 56 36 0 0 0 0
msy 53 36 55 41 0 0 0 0
gpt 53 33 56 39 0 0 0 0
pql 54 32 57 36 0 0 0 0

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for gmz532-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for gmz536-538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi44 min NNW 20 G 25 45°F 56°F1024.2 hPa (+1.4)
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi44 min NW 4.1 G 11 44°F 55°F1024.6 hPa (+1.5)
CARL1 23 mi44 min 48°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi44 min NW 8 G 14 42°F 52°F1023.5 hPa (+1.2)
FREL1 39 mi50 min NW 1.9 G 5.1 1023.9 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi44 min NW 1.9 G 8 42°F 55°F1025.1 hPa (+1.1)

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi51 minNNW 1710.00 miMostly Cloudy44°F37°F79%1024 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi49 minNNW 1010.00 miOvercast45°F39°F83%1024.3 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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NW7NW5N6NW5N8NW56N53NW45
1 day agoE7E7E75NE6NE5E66S655N6N9NE6NW454NW4NW63465NW4
2 days agoE3E3NE4E7SE13
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E8E7E5E5E6E6E5NE5E4NE5NE5NE5NE7E6NE7NE8

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:09 AM CST     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:23 AM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:00 PM CST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:59 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:04 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.21.31.41.31.31.10.90.70.50.20-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.3-0.2-0.100.20.30.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.