Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:54PM Friday February 22, 2019 1:53 AM CST (07:53 UTC) Moonrise 10:29PMMoonset 9:50AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 1000 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019
.dense fog advisory in effect until noon cst Friday...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog late in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Widespread dense fog early in the morning. Areas of fog late in the morning. Slight chance of showers through the day.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Areas of fog early in the morning. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers until early morning.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Chance of showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 1000 Pm Cst Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis..High pressure will remain settled over the eastern gulf through Saturday. A cold front will push through the coastal waters Saturday night. High pressure will then build in for Sunday and Monday. A low pressure system should then begin affecting the area Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 220547
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1147 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019

Aviation
Conditions generally ifr to lifr at issuance time, heading toward
vlifr at most terminals. Expect little improvement until around
15z, and only to MVFR at that point. As we get into the 00z-06z
Saturday time frame, conditions will again deteriorate. Exception
will probably be kgpt, which is likely to remain ifr or lower for
much or all of the forecast period. 35

Prev discussion issued 343 pm cst Thu feb 21 2019
short term... A warm front currently pushing through the northern
third of the forecast area will continue to push north through the
evening hours. This will place the entire forecast area in a very
warm and humid airmass through Saturday. Temperatures will be well
above average with daytime highs in the lower 80s both Friday and
Saturday and overnight lows only cooling into the 60s. As this
warm and humid airmass moves over the cooler nearshore waters,
advection fog will develop both tonight and tomorrow night. Fully
expect to see dense fog form both tonight and tomorrow over
portions of the forecast area mainly along and south of the i-10
corridor, and have a dense fog advisory in effect from late this
evening through mid-morning tomorrow.

Other than the fog, the main concern will be the risk of some
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms impacting the area on
Saturday. In advance of this Saturday event, ample instability
combined with a broad area weak omega across the gulf south will
allow for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to pop up
throughout the day on Friday. These thunderstorms are expected to
remain on the weak side due to a lack of wind shear across the
area. Thunderstorms are most likely over the northern portion of
the CWA where temperatures should be slightly warmer and overall
instability greater. Saturday will present the biggest forecast
concern given the number of outdoor events occurring on the first
big weekend of mardi gras festivities. A vigorous shortwave trough
is expected to take on a negative tilt as it moves into the
southern plains late Friday night into Saturday morning. As this
occurs, a strong front will develop in the low levels and race
across texas and into western louisiana by mid-day Saturday.

Strong forcing along the front; ample instability as noted by
mlcape in excess of 1000j kg; and increasing speed and
directional shear values will support the development of a line of
strong to potentially severe thunderstorms along this frontal
boundary by Saturday morning. This line of thunderstorms should
race into the forecast area by the early afternoon hours, and will
initially impact areas along the atchafalaya river and metro
baton rouge. Given 0-6km shear values in excess of 50 knots and
directional shear in excess of 200m2 s2 over portions of metro
baton rouge and southwest mississippi, there will be risk of
quasi- linear convective segments developing along the line. These
qlcs events have the potential to produce strong wind gusts and a
few tornadoes. Further to the south and east, the severe threat
looks to be lower as 0-6km shear values remain below 40 knots and
directional shear values only climb to around 100m2 s2. This lower
severe threat covers areas mainly east of the i-55 corridor
including coastal louisiana, metro new orleans, and coastal
mississippi. These areas should see the line of thunderstorms
slide through from late afternoon into the early evening hours. By
late evening, the line of storms should be pushing into the
offshore coastal waters. Although the severe threat is lower in
this area, there will still be the potential for an isolated
severe weather event in the form of strong winds or tornadoes to
occur through the evening.

Long term... After the squall line and front moves through, strong negative
vorticity advection and subsidence will take hold. A very dry
airmass will advect in from the west, and any rains should come to
abruptly to an end. Skies should also quickly clear, and expect to
see sunny skies across the region by Sunday morning. High pressure
will briefly regain control on Sunday and remain in place through
Monday morning. A pacific originated airmass will advect in from
the west, and this will push temperatures down into the upper 60s
and lower 70s for highs both Sunday and Monday. Overnight lows
should dip into the 40s and lower 50s Sunday night.

The high pressure system bringing the brief respite from the
clouds and rain will quickly shift to the east Monday night and
Tuesday. At the same time, another fast moving shortwave feature
riding along in the zonal flow pattern aloft will begin to move
into the region. Weak cyclogenesis over the western gulf of mexico
will drive the front offshore back through the region as a warm
front on Tuesday, and fully expect to see scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms redevelop by late Monday night and persist
through Wednesday. The warm air advection in advance of the low
will push daytime highs back into the 70s both Tuesday and
Wednesday, and the overnight lows will warm into the 50s by
Tuesday night.

Aviation... Ceilings are expected to descend after 00z. Ifr to
vlifr conditions are expected after 03z through 17z Friday at most
taf sites. 18
marine... The main concern tonight through Saturday will be
periods of dense fog developing over the tidal lakes, sounds, and
nearshore waters due to a persistent warm and humid airmass
lingering over the region. A dense fog advisory is in effect for
tonight, and other dense fog advisory may be needed tomorrow
night. Winds are expected to increase on Saturday in advance of a
cold front, and this could result in exercise caution conditions
over the open gulf waters by Saturday afternoon. After the front
moves through, winds will shift to the northwest and exercise
caution conditions should continue. Another low pressure system is
then expected to form by Monday, and an increasing pressure
gradient over the northern gulf could result in a period of
easterly winds of 20 to 25 knots and small craft advisories on
Monday. Conditions should gradually improve by Tuesday as the low
moves inland. 32
decision support...

dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: river flood warnings
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events of national
significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 65 80 68 80 30 40 40 70
btr 67 81 69 82 30 30 40 70
asd 69 80 68 81 20 20 20 50
msy 70 81 69 82 20 20 20 50
gpt 67 76 67 78 20 20 20 50
pql 69 80 67 80 20 20 20 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Friday for laz040-049-050-
056>070-072.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until noon cst Friday for gmz530-532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557.

Ms... Dense fog advisory until 9 am cst Friday for msz080>082.

Gm... Dense fog advisory until noon cst Friday for gmz532-534-536-538-
550-552-555-557.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi36 min SSE 5.1 G 8.9 70°F 69°F1016.4 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi36 min S 5.1 G 8 73°F 63°F1016.1 hPa
CARL1 23 mi36 min 46°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi36 min S 2.9 G 5.1 67°F 63°F1016.6 hPa
FREL1 39 mi36 min S 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 1015.2 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi36 min SSE 5.1 G 8 73°F 68°F1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi61 minS 86.00 miFog/Mist73°F71°F94%1015.5 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi59 minS 76.00 miFog/Mist72°F72°F100%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE7N5N3NE4N4NE3NE3CalmSE8SE12S11SE8
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1 day agoS10
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S8SW7W3NW6N5N4NE3N3N5NE3N4N5
2 days agoNE9NE9
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E6NE7NE7NE9CalmNE4NE3SE10
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S11S10S6

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:23 AM CST     0.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:49 AM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:27 PM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:40 PM CST     0.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:52 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:29 PM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:50 PM CST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.50.50.60.60.60.60.50.50.40.30.30.20.20.20.20.30.30.30.30.30.30.20.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.