Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 7:37PM Saturday August 19, 2017 5:56 AM CDT (10:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:07AMMoonset 6:06PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 343 Am Cdt Sat Aug 19 2017
Today..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south late. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..North winds near 5 knots becoming southeast in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south late in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 343 Am Cdt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis..High pressure will remain in control of the coastal waters through early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 190831 cca
afdlix
area forecast discussion... Corrected
national weather service new orleans la
331 am cdt Sat aug 19 2017

Short term
A more typical wet mid august pattern will persist through at least
this weekend and possibly into next week. An upper level trough
currently extends from the great lakes to the southeastern united
states. Strong daytime heating and decreased subsidence will allow
for afternoon thunderstorms to develop. Mav and ECMWF guidance
came in with pops ranging from 40 to 60%. The hrrr also shows good
coverage of storms from noon through the early evening hours.

Taking a look at model soundings, dry air will be in place aloft
with increased mid level moisture and an inverted-v profile in the
lower levels. This overall profile has been known to be conducive
for wet microbursts. Will be putting a mention of this potential
in the hwo and possibly social media posts today.

From a temperature standpoint, daytime highs should be similar to
yesterday, 90 to 95, but daily mixing has brought dewpoints down
into the mid to lower 70s in the afternoon hours. Thus shouldn't see
heat indicies much higher than 105.

A tutt low, currently seen on WV moving west across the florida
straits, will be tracking west across the gom Sunday. This feature
in combination with daytime heating will enhance convection and
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. The gfs
has backed off pops quite a bit Sunday, while the ECMWF holds on the
more numerous convection. Have sided more so on the wetter side as
has been the general pattern all summer to date.

Long term
An upper ridge will try to build in from the east during the first
half of next week while the tutt low slowly progresses into the
northwestern gulf. Moisture drawn onshore will keep rain chances
higher through Tuesday. Moving into mid week, models indicate a
broad long wave trough will send a frontal boundary towards the
region. This will keep the CWA in an enhanced pop development
pattern.

Meffer

Aviation Tsra development will mostly begin after sunrise
today. With any development near any particular terminal, there will
be a higher probability of downburst wind speeds reaching severe
criteria causing dangerous low level shear. Ceilings generally sct-
bkn at 030 to 040 through the day.VFR conditions expected outside
convective locations.

Marine No changes as high pressure remains the dominant
factor over the northern gulf. Diurnal fluctuations will remain the
main driver of winds. Most nights, look for a weak enhanced jet over
the waters east of the ms delta where winds could bump up to 10-15
knots at times. Seas will remain in the 2-3 ft range or less.

Dss code: yellow.

Deployed: nohsep.

Activation: none.

Activities: dss support for nohsep; monitoring convective trends
river flooding; and heat advisory.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 92 74 92 74 50 10 30 10
btr 93 74 93 76 50 10 30 10
asd 94 75 93 76 50 10 40 10
msy 93 77 93 78 50 10 30 10
gpt 92 76 92 78 40 10 30 10
pql 95 74 93 77 30 20 30 10

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi44 min WSW 5.1 G 6 82°F 90°F1015.9 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi38 min WNW 5.1 G 9.9 85°F 87°F1015.6 hPa
CARL1 23 mi38 min 85°F
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 27 mi66 min Calm G 0 78°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.0)78°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi44 min WNW 5.1 G 7 80°F 87°F1015.4 hPa
FREL1 39 mi38 min W 1.9 G 4.1 79°F 1014.6 hPa77°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi38 min W 2.9 G 4.1 80°F 88°F1016.1 hPa

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi63 minWNW 1310.00 miFair85°F79°F82%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW5NW6N5NW8N5NW5345SW5CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW35SW4SW7W64N5SW6CalmS7S7S4S3S4SW3CalmSW3SW3CalmCalmN3
2 days agoCalmCalmS5S6S6SW5S6SW6S5CalmSW7NW9
G15
NW5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:07 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:28 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:51 PM CDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:05 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
000.10.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.71.81.81.81.71.51.31.10.90.60.40.30.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Chef Menteur
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:08 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:29 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:37 PM CDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:06 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:35 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.1-0.100.10.30.40.60.80.91.11.21.31.41.51.51.41.31.10.90.70.50.30.1-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.