Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Violet, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:03AMSunset 6:26PM Thursday October 18, 2018 12:40 PM CDT (17:40 UTC) Moonrise 3:14PMMoonset 1:23AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 937 Am Cdt Thu Oct 18 2018
.small craft exercise caution in effect until 4 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 937 Am Cdt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis..A cold front will become stationary over the coastal waters today. This front will move back to the north Friday before another stronger cold front moves through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday morning. A coastal surface low may get organized and move through the coastal waters for the first half of the new week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Violet, LA
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location: 29.97, -89.7     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 181416
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
916 am cdt Thu oct 18 2018

Sounding discussion
This morning's balloon launch was successful with no problems
encountered. Many prominent changes were noted on this sounding
when compared to the previous 24 hours. The surface front that has
allowed for a noticeable cool down has finally pressed far enough
south to be well reflected in the lower-levels, with a well-
defined frontal inversion in place. This is further supported by
easterly to northeasterly winds to around 850mb. Above this
inversion, the thermal profile remains relatively unchanged, with
persistent southwesterly winds to the tropopause continuing to
pump in moisture from southern tx and mexico. In a pattern like
this, we typically stay locked in cloud cover due to overrunning
moisture aloft (like we did yesterday). However, today some of
this moisture will attempt to disperse allowing for some periods
of sun. Rap13km model sounding guidance supports the idea that we
should mix out nicely later this afternoon which will make it
feel quite comfortable with afternoon temperatures. A moist
250-300mb layer should keep a persistent upper-level cirrus field
across the area, but will be broken at times revealing sunshine
this afternoon. Klg

Prev discussion issued 426 am cdt Thu oct 18 2018

Short term
High pressure will build in over the forecast area over the next
few days. This will yield some fall weather once again for the
region. Cool temperature and little rain should be the rule
through Friday. Late Friday afternoon we could see some increased
convection as the high starts to weaken and an impulse moves
north of the forecast area. A cold front will move through on
Saturday.

Long term
A cold front will move into the region on Saturday bringing with
it increased rain chances. Overall instability will remain low,
and do not expect to see much in the way of thunderstorms when the
front moves through. Temperatures will generally be near average
in the 70s and lower 80s in advance of the front. Behind the front
cooler temperatures can be expected and clearing conditions. We
remain fairly dry though Wednesday. Guidance then struggles with
what happens next. Both the GFS and ECMWF show energy moving out
of texas and developing into a fairly robust system that could
bring a chance for strong storms. The ECMWF has just shown this
result the GFS has been showing this system for a few runs. It
will be something that needs to be watched as it could be the
first strong system of the cool season. 13 mh

Aviation
For the 06z tafs, the expected clearing trend over coastal
mississippi kgpt finally had occurred in the last hour, and that
trend with the lowest MVFR cloud decks scattering out appears to
be trying to occur at kasd and khdc. Otherwise, confidence in the
timing of the improvement elsewhere is low on the exact hour,
however it does appear improvement should occur during the 08-11z
time period overnight thenVFR is expected for the remainder of
the TAF period. Northeast winds are expected to be northeast at
greater than 10 knots at kgpt, kmsy and especially knew with some
gusts over 20 knots possible at both new orleans airports through
the nighttime and morning hours. 22 td

Marine
Weak CAA will end this morning and winds should begin to
relax. By tonight winds should be below 15 kts over all of the
coastal waters. High pressure will continue to work east into the
atlantic and return flow will begin to set back up late Friday but
will be weak and short lived. The next cold front will quickly be on
the way and will move through the coastal waters Saturday. That said
winds will only become offshore initially but by Saturday night once
strong CAA sets in winds will quickly pick up with at least small
craft adv conditions in place. Winds may finally begin to relax
overnight Sunday but more so on Monday.

Forecast becomes quite uncertain heading into next week. Models have
been consistent on the development of a sfc low but location and
track of this low has been very inconsistent and this will have
significant differences in the forecast. Cab

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: small craft advisory
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or
excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe
and or excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events
of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 75 58 83 64 10 0 10 30
btr 77 61 85 66 10 0 20 20
asd 81 62 84 68 0 10 20 20
msy 78 68 85 71 0 10 20 20
gpt 80 65 83 70 0 10 20 30
pql 82 64 84 68 0 10 20 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for gmz536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 1 pm cdt this afternoon for gmz538-
550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 7 mi41 min NE 14 G 17 72°F 79°F1025 hPa (+0.4)
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 22 mi41 min NE 11 G 12 71°F 76°F1025 hPa (+0.0)
CARL1 23 mi41 min 75°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 32 mi41 min NNE 7 G 8.9 73°F 77°F1025.2 hPa (+0.0)
FREL1 39 mi41 min ENE 8 G 9.9 73°F 1024.6 hPa (+0.4)
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 40 mi41 min ENE 1.9 G 8 77°F 77°F1025 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Shell Beach, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA18 mi48 minNE 1110.00 miFair74°F57°F56%1024.6 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA20 mi1.8 hrsENE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F61°F62%1023.9 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N7N8N8N7N8N9N8N10N7NE7NE8N9N10N9NE7N7NE5NE6NE7NE7N10NE9
G17
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1 day agoS7S6S6SE7SE4SE3N5N8N6NE7N7--NE5N6N7N6N7NE9NE7NE4N8N9N9NE10
2 days agoSE8SE4SE9SE6S5SE8N7N5N5CalmSE5CalmNE44N5CalmCalmNE3N5N4E4E4SE6S7

Tide / Current Tables for Shell Beach, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Shell Beach
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:23 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:22 AM CDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:13 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:24 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:03 PM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.70.80.911.11.21.31.41.41.41.41.31.21.110.80.70.60.50.40.40.40.5

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.