Sunrise 6:43 AM   Sunset 7:46 PM Moonrise 2:19 PM   Moonset 3:10 AM

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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 336 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots late this evening and overnight. Lake waters choppy. Patchy fog late. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Patchy fog in the morning. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Lake waters choppy. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming northeast after midnight. Lake waters choppy. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - North winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Lake waters rough. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Sunday night - Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Lake waters rough. Monday - East winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Tuesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 336 Pm Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis - High pressure will continue off to the east with lower pressure across the southern plains through the first part of Saturday. This will keep a light to modest southerly flow in place. Shower activity will increase late Saturday as a surface front moves into the region. This front will move across the coastal waters late Saturday night into Sunday morning, with modest to strong offshore winds developing behind it.

FXUS64 KLCH 181952 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 252 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Short wave will continue to move off to the east and with it rain chances will decrease with current shower activity expected to be gone by sundown.

Winds again will decrease after sunset with light south flow bringing low level moisture through the night. Low clouds will again develop and fill in during the overnight. Some patchy fog will also be possible, however, winds should stay up enough above the surface with enough mixing to preclude widespread fog.

Shower activity is expected to stay north of the forecast area on Friday closer to a stalled frontal boundary. This will leave just warm and muggy conditions with a few peeks of sunshine between clouds.

A short wave will move eastward on Saturday out of the Plains and help push a surface "cold" front into the northwest portion of the forecast area late in the day, then gradually push it to the southeast during the night. Ahead of the front, copious amounts of Gulf moisture will pool across it, with high moisture values.
PWAT values will be above the 90th percentile of SPC daily climo and not too far below max values with reading between 1.5 and 1.75 inches to go along with 100H-50H mean layer relative humidity above 80 percent.

Frontal convergence to go along with just enough instability to get widespread showers and thunderstorms going during the night.
Heavy rainfall will be the main concern especially from any stronger convection that will produce high rainfall rates and any training as flow begins to parallel the front. For the forecast area, the best chance of this happening will be over upper southeast Texas. Rainfall amounts will average in the 1/2 to 1 inch range, however there is a 50 percent probability of over 1 inch and a 25 percent probability of over 2 inches for Tyler county, and the northern portions of Jasper and Newton counties, where WPC has outlined that area in a Slight Risk potential (level 2 out of 4) for excessive rainfall that may lead to flooding.

Rua

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

The above mentioned frontal boundary will move southeast across the forecast area during Sunday morning into early afternoon. Very good moisture values ahead of the front will allow for high rain chances and some heavy rain potential. WPC has outlined the Louisiana portion of the forecast in a Marginal Risk potential (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall that may lead to flooding.

The northerly winds will bring in cooler temperatures at the surface to go along with the clouds and rain making high temperatures for southeast Texas and central Louisiana much cooler than what has been occurring.

The dry continental air mass will filter in during the day on Sunday into Sunday night, with clear and cool conditions during the night.

High pressure will settle in for Monday with fair conditions and low humidity. This will be short lived however, as the high will move off to the east on Tuesday with southerly winds and the warm and muggy conditions returning.

Rua

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A short wave will continue to move across the forecast area for the next few hours with MVFR ceilings and a few showers/storms through about 18/22z.

Skies are expected to briefly clear of all low clouds once the short wave moves off to the east with VFR conditions into the early evening hours.

Once again tonight, with light southerly flow bringing in low level moisture, low clouds will form under the cap with MVFR ceilings becoming IFR overnight. Some visibility restrictions will be possible from patchy fog with visibility in the 2 to 5 mile range, but low ceilings are still expected to be the main problem.

Rua

MARINE
Issued at 250 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Mainly light to occasional modest southeast to south flow will persist into Saturday as high pressure off to the east ridges into the coastal waters.

A front boundary will move into the coastal waters late Saturday night into early Sunday. Showers and storms are expected to accompany the front.

Behind the front, much cooler and drier air will move in. With rather warm Gulf temperatures, this should allow for some turbulence and mixing in the lower layers that will help increase northerly flow. Wind speeds will be such that a small craft advisory will likely be needed during Sunday into Sunday night.

Northerly winds will decrease on Monday as high pressure settles in over the region.

Onshore winds will return during Tuesday as the high pressure system moves off to the east.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 67 85 64 77 / 0 10 10 30 LCH 70 85 68 84 / 0 0 0 10 LFT 71 86 70 85 / 0 0 0 10 BPT 71 85 69 83 / 0 0 0 20

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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