Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Tyndall AFB, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 4:47PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 1:19 PM CST (19:19 UTC) Moonrise 12:54PMMoonset 11:49PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 201 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft should exercise caution...
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Rain in the evening, then slight chance of rain after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..North winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday night..North winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..North winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 0 to 1 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Sunday night..North winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 201 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis..Northwest winds will remain moderate to strong today and tonight with exercise caution conditions in the nearshore waters and advisory conditions in the offshore waters. Winds will remain elevated through Friday then a decrease in winds and seas heading into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tyndall AFB, FL
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location: 29.99, -85.7     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 141733
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1233 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Aviation
[through 18z Thursday]
rain and low CIGS will continue to spread across all terminals
through the afternoon and overnight. Conditions have already
deteriorated at kvld, kaby, and kdhn. Low CIGS and rain will move
into ktlh and kecp by mid afternoon. The rain should end from west
to east between midnight and 6am, with low CIGS lingering a couple
hours after the rain ends.

Prev discussion [847 am est]
Near term [through today]
Flow around upper low lifting into arkansas this morning is
pulling a significant amount of moisture northward into the local
forecast area this morning. Coupled with a cool and stable surface
layer, the resulting isentropic lift is forecast to increase and
spread eastward throughout the day. This will result in an
increase in coverage and intensity of rainfall through the
afternoon and evening hours. Current forecast handles this well,
with pop expanding eastward with time. Temperature wise, the low-
level cold air advection will be roughly balanced with minimal
insolation, keeping temperature rises minimal. Expect high
temperatures to only be a few degrees above morning lows.

Short term [tonight through Friday]
Low pressure will exit the florida peninsula on Thursday en route to
the carolinas. The flow aloft will remain cyclonic, yet with a much
drier air mass advecting into the area. A chance of showers across
the eastern fl big bend and southwest ga Thu morning with increasing
sunshine during the afternoon as deep layer moisture exits the area.

Elsewhere, a mostly sunny day is in store.

Both clear skies and dry weather will continue through Friday as the
flow aloft becomes more zonal and surface high pressure settles over
the lower mississippi valley. It'll be unseasonably cool both days
as high temperatures only reach the 50s, with upper 40s possible
northwest of the flint river in ga and across portions of southeast
al. This is 15 to 20 degrees below normal! In fact, northwest winds
up to 10 mph during the Thu morning commute will make for wind chill
factors down to 30 degrees northwest of the flint and apalachicola
rivers.

For Thursday night, there is the potential for frost to occur across
much of the area away from the gulf coast. With high pressure just
west of the region, there is uncertainty as to whether winds become
calm, otherwise clear skies and a dry air mass. If winds become
calm, there is a greater potential for frost and possibly even a
freeze for portions of the area, given even the consensus guidance
brings dew points into the upper 20s.

Long term [Friday night through Wednesday]
With the northern stream removed well to the north and a zonal west
to northwest flow in the southern stream, a fairly tranquil period
of weather is in store. There is the potential for some increased
cloudiness Monday and Tuesday with a vorticity streamer and limited
moisture skirting by to our north, but dry weather is expected. The
flow will remain northerly with high pressure situated to the north
of the area and the air mass will gradually modify. Temperatures
will be in the mid-60s to mid-70s through the period, generally 5 to
10 degrees below average.

Marine
Small craft advisory west of apalachicola expires late tonight.

Northerly winds will approach 20 knots at times through Thursday
night outside of apalachee bay. For this area, a small craft
exercise caution headline is in effect on Wednesday. In addition,
waves across this area will approach 6 feet at times. For Friday
through Wednesday, more tranquil boating conditions with northerly
winds generally 15 knots or less and seas at or below 3 feet.

Fire weather
Aside from low dispersion indices, hazardous fire weather conditions
are not expected.

Hydrology
Periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rainfall will continue
through tonight with dry conditions beginning Thursday. Generally 1-
3 inches of rainfall is expected through tonight. The heaviest
amounts will generally be across SE alabama and southern georgia.

There are some river basins, especially across the florida
panhandle, that are in action stage with forecasts into flood such
as the chipola, apalachicola, and the choctawhatchee near bruce. The
kinchafoonee creek may also reach flood stage over the next few days
in southern georgia. In the longer range, the flint river is
expected to eventually rise into action stage due to increasing
flows from moderate to heavy rain in central georgia.

For detailed information on specific river stages and forecasts,
please visit http: water.Weather.Gov ahps2 index.Php?wfo=tae.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 47 57 35 57 37 100 10 0 0 0
panama city 44 54 39 59 43 100 10 0 0 0
dothan 38 49 33 56 38 100 10 0 0 0
albany 45 53 35 57 39 100 10 0 0 0
valdosta 49 57 35 56 37 100 20 0 0 0
cross city 55 63 37 59 38 90 20 0 0 0
apalachicola 48 59 39 59 43 100 10 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Camp
short term... Lf
long term... Lf
aviation... Camp
marine... Lf
fire weather... Dvd
hydrology... Dvd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 11 mi31 min N 8.9 G 11 56°F 68°F1020 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 42 mi31 min NNE 8.9 G 11 65°F 69°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi84 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast57°F54°F90%1021.4 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN11NW14
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N6N7N7NE6NE7N4NE25NW8
1 day agoSE13
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S12S9S6S5NW6
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NW2N1--E3SE1E1NE1E3E3W1CalmE3N2N4N9
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2 days agoSE634S3CalmSE2E1E2E4E6E7
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Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:39 AM CST     1.36 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:20 AM CST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:54 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:49 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.31.21.10.90.70.50.40.20.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.80.911.11.2

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Panama City
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:27 AM CST     1.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:07 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:54 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:38 PM CST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 10:49 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.41.41.31.21.10.90.70.60.40.20.20.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.80.911.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.