Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chalmette, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 7:16PM Saturday March 25, 2017 8:43 AM CDT (13:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:23AMMoonset 4:57PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Mississippi Sound-lake Borgne- 303 Am Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect through this evening...
Today..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the night.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 303 Am Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis..A weak cold front will move into the coastal waters today. High pressure will briefly build in for Sunday, but another area of low pressure will pass north of the gulf waters on Monday. High pressure will then settle back in for Tuesday and yet a third low pressure system will approach from the west on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chalmette, LA
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location: 30, -89.93     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 251308
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
808 am cdt Sat mar 25 2017

Sounding discussion...

the sounding is from ahead of the storms this morning and
indicates instability is present with mixed layer CAPE at
970 j/kg and most unstable at 1260 j/kg. Winds are sse right at
the surface and veer to SW at 50 kts by 500 mb. Surface to 6 km
shear is at 49 kts suggesting strong to severe storms are at least
possible, though the winds are likely a bit more unidirectional
with the actual line. The storms have been weakening this morning.

Winds at about 30 kts are the highest observed in the line so
far, though daytime heating will add some more instability for
additional development later today. Hail might be possible with a
couple of the stronger storms with higher updrafts this
afternoon. Wet bulb zero height is relatively low at 8400 ft.

Krautmann

Prev discussion /issued 339 am cdt Sat mar 25 2017/
short term...

a line of convection extending from northeast louisiana to the
southwest corner of the state was continuing to push eastward
early this morning. This line has shown signs of weakening over
the last couple of hours and the latest hrrr model data as well as
the 06z run of the NAM forecast this trend to continue as it
pushes into the western and northern sections of the p/cwa during
the early morning hours. Models then forecast redevelopment of
this line later today farther to the east with additional
convection moving in from the west as well. Despite the current
trends and near term forecast for weakening of convection this
morning, the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms will exist
today across the forecast area and SPC has included the entire
area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms. The main severe
weather threats will be damaging thunderstorms winds and large
hail; however, an isolated tornado or two is not out of the
question, primarily during the morning hours.

The convection today is the result of a vigorous upper low/trough
progressing slowly east-northeastward across the mid and lower
mississippi valley. This system will act on a moist and unstable
atmosphere to produce numerous to widespread thunderstorms today
which will diminish late in the day and during the evening as the
upper low/trough pulls off to the east-northeast. Decent upper
level divergence should aid development and help maintain the
convection today. Forecast soundings show veering of the winds
with height in the lowest levels yielding SRH values in the 200
to 300 m2/s2 this morning which signals a threat for tornadoes.

This veering in the lowest levels becomes less prominent as the
day progresses, thus a decreasing threat for tornadoes as the day
goes by. The forecast soundings also indicate a threat for hail
with relatively low wbz heights. This makes sense as a the cold
pool aloft associated with the upper low/trough spreads eastward.

The cold front associated with this system will not push through
the p/cwa.

A much more tranquil and dry day is expected on Sunday as this
weather system continues to move away from the area. 11
long term...

a warm and active pattern will prevail through the work week and
into next weekend. A short wave trough moving across the
mississippi valley at the beginning of the work week will be the
next system to impact the local area. Convection is expected
across the area Monday into Monday night. An isolated strong
storm is not out of the question; however, the best chance for
this will be to the north of the forecast area. Some residual
moisture may also yield a shower or thunderstorm on Tuesday with a
frontal boundary nearby or just to the north. Again, the front
will not push through the area.

A more impressive system will affect the area for the last half of
the work week. At this time, it looks as if an upper low/trough
will move out of the southern plains and into the lower/mid
mississippi valley on Thursday with a threat of convection across
the p/cwa from Wednesday night through Thursday night. It would
appear that some strong to severe thunderstorms will again be
possible with this system. There are now some differences with how the
the GFS and ECMWF handle this system with regards to the strength
and timing.

Yet another system may impact the lower mississippi valley next
weekend or just beyond the current forecast period into the
following week. The GFS and ECMWF are again offering solutions
with some differences on the strength and timing of this system.

11
aviation...

main concern will be timing of thunderstorms associated with a
squall line. The squall line currently stretches from near monroe,
to just east of alexandria, to lake charles. Northern end continues
to move a bit faster than the southern end as the front elongates.

Model guidance appears too fast with the arrival of thunderstorms,
and will likely need to adjust tafs in the next hour or so to
account for further slowing of the convective line. Outside of
convection, general MVFR conditions due to cloud deck between 15kft
and 25kft. Conditions will drop to ifr during peak of convection,
then should improve toVFR behind the line. 95
marine...

small craft advisory conditions with winds over 20 knots and rough
seas will persist through 7am for open waters west of the
mississippi river, and through 7pm for open waters east of the
mississippi river. Elsewhere, exercise caution headlines are in
effect. The pressure gradient will weaken tonight and Sunday as high
pressure overspreads the coastal waters. Expect to see southerly
flow of 10 to 15 knots and seas of 3 to 5 feet by Sunday, and then
to see these conditions persist through Tuesday. A second low
pressure system could bring another round of small craft conditions
to the waters for Wednesday and Thursday. 95
decision support...

dss code... Orange.

Deployed... None.

Activation... None.

Activities... Monitoring severe weather potential.

Decision support service (dss) code legend:
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch/warning/advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch/warning/advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk of severe weather;
nearby tropical events, hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe weather; direct
tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 78 61 83 63 / 80 30 10 10
btr 81 62 83 64 / 80 20 10 10
asd 79 62 81 63 / 80 30 10 10
msy 80 66 82 66 / 80 20 10 10
gpt 77 64 79 65 / 70 30 10 10
pql 78 64 80 63 / 70 30 10 10

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz555-557-
575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz557-575-
577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 10 mi44 min S 8 G 12 71°F 72°F1018.3 hPa (-0.0)
CARL1 12 mi44 min 55°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 16 mi44 min SE 13 G 17 70°F 73°F1018.9 hPa (+0.0)
FREL1 27 mi44 min S 11 G 17 73°F 1017 hPa (-0.0)67°F
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 30 mi44 min SE 5.1 G 11 70°F 73°F1018.6 hPa (+0.4)
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 30 mi54 min SSE 5.8 G 12 69°F 1019.2 hPa (+0.0)68°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 39 mi44 min SSE 17 G 19 71°F 71°F1018.8 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA6 mi51 minSSE 128.00 miA Few Clouds71°F68°F90%1017.7 hPa
New Orleans, Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA13 mi49 minSSE 910.00 miA Few Clouds0°F0°F%1018.7 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA17 mi51 minSSE 128.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F68°F90%1018.5 hPa

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE8SE12SE13E13E13E13E14E13E14E14E16E14SE15SE12SE13SE9SE14
G19
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2 days agoNW11NW11NW11NW9W8W10W10W9W7W7W7W7SW5SW5SW6SW6SW5SW3CalmCalmE8E7E9E8

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:43 AM CDT     0.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:57 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:41 PM CDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:57 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:14 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.80.80.80.70.70.60.40.30.20.10.1000.10.10.20.20.30.30.40.40.50.6

Tide / Current Tables for Chef Menteur, Chef Menteur Pass, Louisiana
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Chef Menteur
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:41 AM CDT     0.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:22 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:56 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:25 AM CDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:56 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:13 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.80.80.80.70.60.50.40.30.10.1000.10.10.20.30.30.40.40.50.50.50.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.