Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kerrville, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 7:28PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 1:11 PM CDT (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 12:12PMMoonset 11:02PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kerrville city, TX
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location: 30.01, -99.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 261753
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin san antonio tx
1253 pm cdt Tue sep 26 2017

Aviation 18z TAF cycle
scattered to numerous showers are ongoing across the terminals with
the exception of kdrt where stratiform rain is just to the south and
east. Expected persistent episodes of shra for kaus ksat kssf
through the afternoon hours with some additional light -shra near
kdrt as well. Have tried to time in when actual shra will be near and
over the terminals through the afternoon and early evening in the
tafs. Some turbulence can be expected with pockets of MVFR to ifr
conditions in some of the heavier showers. Deep shower cloud tops
will reach near fl350-400.

Rain activity is expected to continue near kdrt through the overnight
and into Wednesday morning while slowly tapering down near
kaus ksat kssf. Will keep vcsh in for all site with a dominate
weather group for kdrt given the coverage expected overnight. Storms
may intensify towards the rio grande plains overnight. Southeast
winds of 10 knots will persist through the period with higher gusts
near more organized convection.

Prev discussion issued 918 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017
update... Lowered qpf... Removed most thunder 1st pd
some minor QPF wx adjustments were made based on the rain maximums
and stronger focusing over the coastal bend. The early morning trends
should lead to less overall daytime precipitation and limited amount
of thunder, but coverage of showers is still expected to be
widespread. Convective trends and rainfall rates are expected to pick
up again in the tonight period.

Prev discussion... Issued 327 am cdt Tue sep 26 2017
short term (today through Wednesday)...

a large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms continues mainly
across areas west of highway 281. Heavier convection developed
yesterday evening across the southwest CWA and has since moved to the
southeast following the best instability axis. The hrrr has had a
decent handle on the precip overnight and shows it lingering into the
late morning hours with a slow eastward progression continuing.

Think this trend from the model seems decent and will follow this
closely in the near-term, showing high pops across the south in the
morning hours with increasing pops out west this afternoon.

Little has changed regarding the synoptic setup versus yesterday
with the base of the deep trough remaining over the southwest conus
with southwest flow aloft in place across south-central texas.

Southeast flow from the surface up to 700 mb is aiding in the lift as
isentropic upglide and this will ensure continued chances of periods
of showers and thunderstorms beyond this morning for the remainder
of the short-term forecast. The highest pops will remain across the
western CWA in the best region of this low-level lift and any
responses from perturbations within the southwest flow. For the most
part, think the heavy rainfall chances will be limited in the short-
term without the presence of a surface boundary and significant
upper forcing. Will have to watch for the development of any mcvs
that would aide in the rainfall production. Think there could be some
advisories or an occasional flash flood warning needed in the short-
term, but not expecting wide-spread flooding. High temperatures will
be in the 80s to near 90 degrees with a low tonight in the lower 70s
across much of the area.

Long term (Wednesday night through Monday)...

on Wednesday night, the cold front currently in northern oklahoma and
the texas panhandle will be approaching our northern counties and
will move move into the area by Thursday afternoon. This boundary
with the similar synoptic setup should allow for an uptick in the
intensity of rainfall across our western counties as it serves as a
focus for continued shower and storm development. The ECMWF is
showing this quite well with a QPF bullseye across the western
counties on Thursday. The overall threat of flash flooding should be
highest then, especially if we do get several rounds of rain over the
next couple of days which will help saturate the top soil and allow
for sufficient runoff for flash flooding. Additional storm total
rainfall amounts through Thursday will be 4-6 inches across the
western counties with isolated totals up to 10 inches. Lesser amounts
can be expected for the remainder of the cwa.

Once the front pushes through the area by the evening hours on
Thursday, the threat for heavy rainfall will diminish. Will end pops
Saturday night with lingering low chances of rain behind the cold
front on Friday. Temperatures behind the front will be much cooler
with highs this weekend in the 80s and lows in the 50s 60s. The gfs
shows a weak disturbance bringing rain to the area on Monday, but the
ecmwf does not show this. Will forecast a 20 pop for the much of the
area for now.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 72 87 71 87 69 40 40 30 40 40
austin bergstrom intl airport 71 87 71 88 69 40 30 30 30 40
new braunfels muni airport 72 88 71 88 69 40 40 40 40 40
burnet muni airport 69 82 68 81 65 50 50 40 40 40
del rio intl airport 72 83 70 84 68 90 80 70 60 50
georgetown muni airport 71 86 70 85 67 40 40 40 30 40
hondo muni airport 72 89 71 89 68 70 70 60 40 50
san marcos muni airport 71 87 71 88 69 40 40 30 40 40
la grange - fayette regional 72 90 73 90 71 20 20 20 20 20
san antonio intl airport 73 87 72 87 71 50 50 40 40 40
stinson muni airport 73 87 72 88 71 50 50 40 40 40

Ewx watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch through Thursday evening for the following
counties: bandera... Dimmit... Edwards... Frio... Kerr... Kinney...

maverick... Medina... Real... Uvalde... Val verde... Zavala.

Mesoscale aviation... Allen
synoptic grids... Oaks
public service data collection... Williams


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kerrville, Kerrville Municipal Airport/Louis Schreiner Field, TX7 mi76 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast76°F73°F90%1014.6 hPa
Fredericksburg, Gillespie County Airport, TX23 mi76 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F68°F87%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from ERV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE10SE9E7E9E7E10SE6SE4SE6E3E4SE5SE5E5E6E3SE3SE5E4CalmSE4SE6Calm
1 day agoSE11S9
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2 days agoSE11
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G16

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.