Wednesday, October17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kerrville, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:39AMSunset 7:04PM Wednesday October 17, 2018 4:09 AM CDT (09:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:13PMMoonset 12:10AM Illumination 54% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kerrville city, TX
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location: 30.01, -99.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 170606
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin san antonio tx
106 am cdt Wed oct 17 2018

Aviation
Weak isentropic lift maintains -ra dz overnight through Wednesday
evening and have kept mention in the tafs. A stronger disturbance and
deeper moisture increase shra Wednesday night and have introduced
reduced vsbys with shra at kaus ksat. Ifr CIGS are already at kaus.

MVFR CIGS lower to ifr overnight at ksat kssf. CIGS very slowly rise
to low end MVFR in the afternoon, then fall back to ifr Wednesday
evening. Kdrt should remain MVFR throughout the forecast. Nly winds
6 to 11 kts overnight increase to 10 to 15 kts on Wednesday.

Prev discussion issued 949 pm cdt Tue oct 16 2018
update...

quick update to account for latest radar trends. Weak isentropic
ascent persisting across the area will result in periods of light
drizzle or rain overnight with accumulations across the hill country
expected to remain under one quarter inch. Rap analysis shows smaller
disturbances lifting out of mexico and into the rio grande plains
after midnight tonight in the south-southwest flow aloft that may
help generate heavier shower activity across portions of val verde
and edwards, but expect this to remain west of the majority of the
area. Not planning on any changes to the ongoing flash flood watch
configuration.

In between drizzle rain tonight, patchy fog development will be
possible as the relaxing surface pressure gradient as resulted in
light winds. Already seeing this development in the hill country and
will have to monitor for expansion to the i-35 corridor and into the
coastal plains. Otherwise, expect another chilly night with lows in
the 40s to low 50s.

Prev discussion... Issued 725 pm cdt Tue oct 16 2018
aviation...

MVFR conditions are expected this evening as the strong post frontal
inversion lingers across south central texas with ceilings lowering
to ifr along the i-35 corridor overnight and rising back to MVFR by
mid-morning Wednesday. Lingering isentropic ascent may be able to
produce some light drizzle or rain at all terminals through the
period with high resolution guidance indicating the best window for
aus Sat ssf overnight and drt after 14-15z Wednesday. Expect
northerly winds to persist in the 10-15 knot range.

Prev discussion... Issued 418 pm cdt Tue oct 16 2018
short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...

afternoon radar imagery shows persistent rain continuing across
portions of the i-35 corridor, hill country and southern edwards
plateau. Hourly amounts according to radar and gauge data have been
trending downward this afternoon across the hill country and i-35
corridor. However, any additional rainfall falling on saturated
ground will instantly result in runoff.

The latest round of hi-res models suggest the better chance for
precipitation will contract and shift slightly northward this evening
and overnight. This should place the higher rainfall chances along
and north of a del rio to fredericksburg to burnet line. With models
showing the stronger lift focused along the rio grande and southern
edwards plateau, we should see the higher rainfall totals through
tonight across val verde and edwards county. However, as mentioned
above, any additional rainfall over the hill country into west
central texas will result in runoff.

On Wednesday, we should see a slight decrease in rainfall chances
across most of the region as the mid-level ridge of high pressure
builds westward across the northern gulf of mexico. The exception
will be across portions of the rio grande plains and southern edwards
plateau where mid-level shortwave activity will move northward from
coahuila mexico into the above mentioned areas.

Beginning Wednesday night, an area of higher moisture will begin to
work northward from the western gulf of mexico into south texas. The
latest satellite precipitable water product shows values near 2.5" in
the western gulf.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)...

the above mentioned surge of moisture from the gulf of mexico will
continue to spread northward into south central texas on Thursday.

Models suggest precipitable water values will increase to near 2"
across most of the region. We continue to see a good signal for
rainfall in the model output and have opted to push rain chances much
higher in the forecast for Thursday. Based on the ongoing flooding,
along with another surge of moisture headed our way, we have opted to
extend the flash flood watch through early Thursday evening. If later
model data remains consistent, we will likely have to expand the
coverage of the watch to include counties along the i-35 corridor.

For now, we will forecast an additional 1 to 2 inches with isolated
totals near 4 inches across the watch area.

The active weather pattern is likely to continue Friday and possibly
well into Saturday as another cold front is expected to move in from
the north. We will continue to mention rain chances in the forecast
into early next week, with the better focus likely to remain out west
along the rio grande.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 51 60 54 62 57 50 70 60 50 40
austin bergstrom intl airport 52 60 56 63 57 50 70 60 40 40
new braunfels muni airport 51 60 56 64 58 60 70 60 40 50
burnet muni airport 49 58 52 61 56 40 80 70 60 50
del rio intl airport 50 58 54 68 60 50 60 70 40 50
georgetown muni airport 51 59 53 61 55 40 70 60 50 50
hondo muni airport 52 59 56 67 60 60 80 70 50 50
san marcos muni airport 51 59 56 63 57 60 70 60 40 40
la grange - fayette regional 53 64 58 67 59 50 60 40 40 40
san antonio intl airport 52 60 56 65 59 60 80 60 50 50
stinson muni airport 53 60 57 66 61 70 70 60 40 60

Ewx watches warnings advisories
Flash flood watch through Thursday evening for bandera-blanco-
burnet-edwards-gillespie-kendall-kerr-kinney-llano-maverick-medina-
real-uvalde-val verde-zavala.

Aviation... 04
short-term long-term... Bmw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kerrville, Kerrville Municipal Airport/Louis Schreiner Field, TX7 mi15 minNW 610.00 miOvercast44°F41°F90%1023.7 hPa
Fredericksburg, Gillespie County Airport, TX23 mi35 minN 710.00 miOvercast44°F42°F93%1024 hPa

Wind History from ERV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10
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N9NW8N8NW7NW8NW6NW7NW5NW4N8N7N7N6
1 day agoN12
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2 days agoS9S9S10S5SE7SE4S7S9S12S10S12S11S9S8SE9
G14
SE4E3SE3E4SE8N12
G19
NW11N12
G19
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G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.