Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kerrville, TX

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Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 8:42PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 10:38 PM CDT (03:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:49AMMoonset 12:56PM Illumination 38% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kerrville city, TX
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location: 30.01, -99.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 260214
afdewx
area forecast discussion
national weather service austin san antonio tx
914 pm cdt Tue jun 25 2019

Update
The seabreeze has pushed all the way to the rio grande, but
convection has ceased along the boundary. There is still some showers
over our southeastern counties. These will continue to dissipate
through the rest of the evening. There will be a slight chance for
showers and thunderstorms to develop over the southwest overnight.

Our forecast is in good shape and we have only adjusted the hourly
grids to account for observational trends.

Prev discussion issued 631 pm cdt Tue jun 25 2019
aviation...

had isolated showers move in with the seabreeze over the last hour
and currently have light shower activity to our se, don't expect any
of this to impact sites. SE winds will relax overnight allowing MVFR
ceilings to build in. There is some uncertainty with how low
ceilings will get, especially for san antonio sites and drt. Ceilings
scatter out mid to late morning on Wednesday, models hint at the
possibility of some light shower activity for i-35 sites in the
morning but greatest confidence for this activity is for the
afternoon hours. Went with vcts for a good portion of Wednesday
afternoon but left out morning activity. Wednesday's shower and
thunderstorm activity is highly dependent on remnant outflow
boundaries, amendments may be needed once models have a better
handle on things.

Prev discussion... Issued 317 pm cdt Tue jun 25 2019
short term (tonight through Wednesday night)...

12z soundings from across the region along with GOES precipitable
water data show a fairly moist air mass in place across all of south
central texas, with precipitable water values just under 1.5" at drt
to near 2" along the coastal plains. This moisture combined with
daytime heating is already producing some isolated convection across
the hill country in burnet county, with more scattered activity noted
over the coastal plains.

We should continue to see a slow increase in convection today,
especially east of the i-35 corridor, given plenty of moisture and
daytime heating. Forecast soundings show fairly unidirectional flow
in the lowest 10k feet, with weak easterly flow noted in the 10k-20k
layer. Fairly weak westerly flow is also noted above 20k feet. This
weak flow along with a shallow inverted-v profile suggest the
stronger storms will be capable of producing marginally severe wind
gusts and locally heavy rainfall. We should see most of the shower
and thunderstorm activity decrease with daytime heating and will
generally bring rain chances down from mid-evening into the overnight
hours. However, there are some indications from hi-res models that a
complex of storms moving up from deep south texas could move in or
help initiate new convection overnight across portions of the rio
grande plains. For now, we will only mention a 20% chance for areas
generally along and south of u.S. Highway 57. Pending additional
model data and radar trends, this may need to be updated.

The global models, especially the ecmwf, have trended a little
wetter for Wednesday. For now, we will keep rain chances at 20% for
areas generally along and east of the i-35 i-37 corridor. Any
additional outflow boundaries along with daytime heating could
certainly help afternoon convection develop on Wednesday.

Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)...

the forecast for late this week should largely be dominated by the
strengthening subtropical ridge to our west. This should result in a
dry forecast for most areas, given subsident northeasterly flow in
the mid-levels. For late this weekend into early next week, the mid-
range models still show an inverted mid-level trough moving in from
the gulf of mexico into deep south texas. Additional moisture moving
in associated with this feature should result in a slow increase in
rain chances early next week, especially east and south of the
balcones escarpment.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 73 90 72 92 72 20 20 - 10 -
austin bergstrom intl airport 72 90 72 92 71 20 20 - 10 -
new braunfels muni airport 72 90 71 92 70 30 20 - 10 -
burnet muni airport 71 88 70 90 70 20 10 - - 0
del rio intl airport 73 92 73 92 73 20 10 10 - -
georgetown muni airport 72 90 71 91 71 20 20 - - 0
hondo muni airport 72 92 72 93 71 30 10 - - -
san marcos muni airport 72 90 72 92 71 20 20 - 10 -
la grange - fayette regional 74 91 73 93 72 30 20 - 20 -
san antonio intl airport 74 91 73 92 72 30 20 - - -
stinson muni airport 74 91 73 92 72 30 10 - - -

Ewx watches warnings advisories
None.

Aviation... Treadway
short-term long-term... 05


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kerrville, Kerrville Municipal Airport/Louis Schreiner Field, TX7 mi44 minSE 510.00 miFair74°F67°F79%1017.6 hPa
Fredericksburg, Gillespie County Airport, TX23 mi64 minSSE 310.00 miFair75°F65°F73%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from ERV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4E6CalmCalmSW10CalmSE9S3S3S6SW7CalmCalmS10
G14
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1 day agoS9S7SE7S7S8S7S9SE8E5CalmSE8SE10S12
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2 days agoS9
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S13S9S12S8SE10S8S8CalmS6S12S11
G14
S11S12S9CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.