Saturday, February17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kerrville, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 6:28PM Saturday February 17, 2018 8:54 PM CST (02:54 UTC) Moonrise 8:26AMMoonset 8:18PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kerrville city, TX
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location: 30.01, -99.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Austin/San Antonio, TX
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Fxus64 kewx 180019 aaa
afdewx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service austin san antonio tx
619 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018

Aviation
00z tafs
there will be some light radar echos just south of kaus and along the
san antonio area airports this evening. So far, no reports of precip
observed at the airports. For the austin terminals, CIGS vbsys are
forecast to stay atVFR category through about 04z and then lower to
MVFR. Model guidance and hires models suggest for ifr conditions to
begin at 08z through 12z Saturday. Then GFS lamp GFS mos and NAM mos
guidance bring lifr for kaus for much of the day on Saturday. For
the san antonio area sites, MVFR conditions are expected through 07z
and lower to ifr afterward through 12z or so. Then, lifr conditions
are expected for much of the day. Across kdrt,VFR conditions are
expected through midnight tonight and then go to MVFR for an hour or
two before even lower ifr conditions take place and remain through
late in the afternoon.

Light northerly winds are expected to dominate the i-35 corridor
sites through midday Saturday while light to moderate southeast winds
prevail at kdrt.

Prev discussion issued 310 pm cst Sat feb 17 2018
short term (tonight through Sunday night)...

as of 230pm, satellite trends were indicating quite a decrease in
cloud cover over the western half of the CWA with an elevated front
pushing south still over the northern tier counties. This front has
resulted in only very minor shower activity and with subsidence
evident through much of the western cwa, opted to decrease pops
significantly throughout the rest of the afternoon.

For tonight, did opt to keep low end chance pops for another
overnight period of low clouds and drizzle light rain. Again, much
like yesterday, our moisture tap will continue with isentropic lift
becoming stronger after 06z along and east of the escarpment. Thus
this period has largely gone unchanged from previous forecasts.

Sunday, a weak disturbance may allow for some elevated shower
activity around the big bend region, possibly resulting in some
showers along the rio grande and plateau areas, but by and large, not
much of a change either in the overall pattern compared to the last
several days.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)...

the focus of the short term was on next Monday night through
Wednesday as an h5 trough digs over the rockies and puts the region
under a southwest flow regime. As reference in the previous forecast,
confidence continues to increase on the potential for strong storms
with locally heavy rainfall early Tuesday morning through Wednesday
as multiple features come into phase. However, model disagreement
begins to become substantial from Wednesday night on, specifically on
how to resolve the frontal passage (stall no stall) and whether or
not we will be dry or showery towards the tail end of the week.

Beginning possibly late Monday evening, the first piece of energy
from the aforementioned rough comes across the mexican mountains and,
coupled with some decent surface based instability and 35-40 kt llj
and 50 kts of 0-6 km shear, could result in strong storms out west
near del rio, perhaps initially isolated. There is enough shearing
available to organize this into a linear feature and come across the
cwa from west to east overnight, and currently the models prog this
arriving around the i-35 corridor Tuesday morning. Pwat values
1.5-1.8" have been advertised in the deterministic nam GFS and as a
result, confidence in the possibility for rainfall with a well
organized system continues to rise. Deterministic models continue to
keep the highest QPF northeast of the CWA (centered over texarkana)
which is where wpc is suggesting as well but models do range from
about a half inch to about 3 inches through the event. Due to the
orientation of the upper level features, and slow translation speed
of those features, some training of rainfall may indeed be possible
Tuesday into Wednesday which could bring those QPF estimates higher
but confidence on that is low still at the moment.

Towards the tail end of the event, one last piece of h5 energy sweeps
across the region and may provide another round of shower development
after the Wednesday front pushes through the cwa. This should be all
elevated however. Then, as mentioned before, model disagreement
begins with how to retrograde the cold front. Thus confidence
decreases substantially beyond 00z Thursday.

Preliminary point temps pops
Austin camp mabry 53 70 62 75 64 30 30 20 20 30
austin bergstrom intl airport 52 70 62 76 64 30 30 20 20 30
new braunfels muni airport 54 72 61 76 64 30 30 20 20 40
burnet muni airport 50 68 60 74 63 30 40 20 20 40
del rio intl airport 61 72 61 79 61 30 40 10 10 50
georgetown muni airport 50 69 62 74 65 30 30 20 20 30
hondo muni airport 57 74 62 80 65 30 40 20 20 50
san marcos muni airport 53 71 61 76 64 30 30 20 20 30
la grange - fayette regional 56 73 63 77 66 30 30 20 20 20
san antonio intl airport 57 72 62 78 64 30 40 20 20 40
stinson muni airport 58 74 63 80 65 30 30 20 20 40

Ewx watches warnings advisories
None.

Mesoscale aviation... 17
synoptic grids... Hampshire
public service data collection... 33


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kerrville, Kerrville Municipal Airport/Louis Schreiner Field, TX7 mi60 minE 310.00 miFair57°F53°F88%1021 hPa
Fredericksburg, Gillespie County Airport, TX23 mi80 minNE 310.00 miFair58°F43°F60%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from ERV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmSE3E7SE6E6SE4N3N5CalmCalmN6N8CalmS5SE3S7SE6SE6E6E7SE5SE4Calm
1 day agoSE5CalmSE3S3S9S8S9CalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmE3E4N11
G17
N9N9N8N9NE6NE7NE7E3
2 days agoSE4S5S4S7S7S6S8S8S11S10S8S11S11
G16
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G14
S11S10S9S5SE4SE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Austin/San Antonio, TX (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Austin/San Antonio, TX
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.