Sunrise 6:29 AM   Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 2:05 PM   Moonset 2:55 AM

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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 1026 Am Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Patchy fog early this morning. Tonight - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Widespread dense fog after midnight. Friday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then 1 to 2 feet in the afternoon. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Friday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Saturday - Southeast winds around 5 knots, increasing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet in the afternoon. Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet. A chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the morning. Sunday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet. Monday night - East winds around 5 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ500 1026 Am Cdt Thu Apr 18 2024
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm -
a persistent south to southeast wind of around 10 knots will remain in place through Saturday. A weak cold front will slip through the waters Sunday morning, and winds will shift to northerly which will remain into Monday as high pressure moves in and exits east.

FXUS64 KLIX 180847 AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 347 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Conditions will remain relatively similar for the next few days.
Temps will continue to top out near 90 for some areas which is a bit warmer than where we should be for this time of year(climo is around 80F). Subtropical jet influences will keep the area with cloud cover and a mild weakness causing a few light showers to speckle the area from time to time through Friday. The main feature on the map for the next few days will be watching a cold front sinking SE toward the area. This front is currently located across Nebraska and Missouri this morning. The front will get a kick today causing it to move at a moderate pace toward the east. But forcing will become lacking as it approaches the gulf coast. By Fri night, we should see this front at least tap the brakes as it gets near the northern portion of the area. This slowing/stalling of the front could cause conditions that promote some advective fog development or at least a "set down" event Fri night into Sat morning ahead of the front.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A new upper trough in the polar jet will begin to move into the west coast late Fri and as this front feels the tug of this new wave, it will slow even further to a stall or at least quasi-stationary for Saturday. The upper trough(located well off the west coast at the moment) will move over this front and help develop a sfc low as the upper winds break the top of the Rockies late Sat. The sfc low that develops will have plenty of strong divergence aloft owing to strong dynamic lift. The problem with this area is the stability below. The area this divergence moves over is behind the cold front. Another area of sh/ts will also develop along and south of the cod front Sunday. But this area is lacking the dyncamis support, but it has most of the lower level instability. To say that none of this area along and south of the front will not support any strong storms would not be right. There is a very small chance of a strong storm with this area Sunday. PW highest values move to around 1.8 inches which isn't off the charts for this time of year but can still produce some heavy rainfall. The upper trough will give the much needed nudge to the front to move it offshore during the day Sunday.
After the near 90F highs we have had up to Sat, this front will be noticed as it will drop temps back into the lower 70s for highs by Monday with a few upper 60s north, and lows in the lower 50s with an upper 40s thrown in to the north for good measure. By Tuesday, we should see this frontal boundary begin to sneak back to the north as a warm front. The subtropical jet will continue to buckle across Mexico and may be able to provide this boundary with enough lift to keep thing unsettled over the fronal interface. So, it will depend on where this warm frontal boundary wants to buy real estate to see whether our area gets storms associated with this or not. This time of year systems can be quick to stall or move back over us, so it is possible that this boundary could move close enough to give us storms again by mid week.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

A mix of MVFR and IFR cigs will remain until shortly after sunrise then all quickly moving to MVFR and finally to VFR by mid to late morning for all terminals. These same conditions should once again show up for tonight into Fri morning.

MARINE
Issued at 229 AM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024

Weak southerly winds will remain ahead of a cold front that will be moving toward the northern gulf coast this weekend. This front should move over the coastal waters Sunday bringing north winds to the northern gulf of around 15-20kt. Some storms will accompany this front as it moves through which could be strong. High pressure will move east rapidly and an onshore flow of 10-15kt will be re- established by Tue with sh/ts developing once again over at least the offshore waters into mid week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
MCB 83 65 85 64 / 20 10 0 0 BTR 88 69 89 68 / 10 10 0 0 ASD 84 67 86 66 / 10 10 0 0 MSY 85 70 86 69 / 10 0 0 0 GPT 80 67 82 66 / 10 0 0 0 PQL 82 65 85 64 / 10 0 0 0

LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.

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