Sunday, December17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 4:46PM Sunday December 17, 2017 7:39 AM CST (13:39 UTC) Moonrise 6:48AMMoonset 5:37PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 150 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Today..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Tonight..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers through the night. Patchy fog after midnight.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms in the morning. Patchy fog through the day.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Areas of fog.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Areas of fog.
Tuesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Northwest winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Thursday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming light and variable winds. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters smooth.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 150 Am Est Sun Dec 17 2017
Synopsis..Winds will become more southerly today as a warm front moves north across the gulf waters into the southeast untied states. This will lead to an influx of moisture, when combined with the cooler nearshore gulf waters, will lead to a couple of days of marine sea fog beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday. The next cold front passage is Wednesday with a brief period of near advisory level winds. Wind speeds and sea heights decrease Thursday into the next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico Beach, FL
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location: 30.03, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 171136
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
636 am est Sun dec 17 2017

Aviation [through 12z Monday]
Vfr conditions to persist through this afternoon with light winds
becoming southeasterly at speeds AOB 10kts. Expect increasing mid
to upper level clouds through the period at all TAF sites. While
there is a slight chance for -shra near dhn this evening, all
sites will see vsby and cig restrictions, as ifr to lifr conditions
are likely beginning this evening and persisting through the
overnight hours. Conditions will slowly improve Monday morning.

Prev discussion [234 am est]
Near term [through today]
The expected moistening trend has commenced across the region, as
upper level ridging to the southeast has amplified ahead of an
approaching shortwave trough that is lifting northeastward across
the southern and central plains at this hour. At the surface, the
latest meso-analysis shows an area of low pressure located just off
the coast of southeast texas, with a warm front extending eastward
across the northern gulf of mexico. A ridge of high pressure is
currently holding steady across the carolinas, but is forecast to
slide eastward over the next 6 to 18 hours, increasing moist
isentropic lift across the region as a result. As this occurs,
expect slight chances for light showers to develop along the
east west frontal zone this afternoon, with the highest rain chances
remaining confined to the northern marine zones and coastal locales.

Further inland, expect increasing high level clouds this morning,
with mid level clouds increasing throughout the day as the warm
front lifts through the region. By this evening, rain chances across
portions of the wiregrass and florida panhandle will increase, as
the trailing front associated with the shortwave trough to the west
approaches the tri-state region.

Temperatures and dewpoints will quickly rise throughout the day as
the warm front lifts through the area, marking a departure from
recent seasonably pleasant conditions. Afternoon high temperatures
are forecast to rise into the low 70s areawide due to warm air
advection, with dewpoints rising into the upper 50s to low 60s by
the end of the period. These unseasonable conditions are expected to
persist into the short term period, discussed below.

Short term [tonight through Tuesday]
Warm front will be north of the area to begin the short term with
the best lift and ascent west and north of the tri-state region.

The best chances for rainfall tonight will be across the
northwestern third of the area. As ridging continues to build across
the northern gulf Monday, rain chances decrease from south to
north and rain chances are tempered on that idea. By the time
Monday night comes, very little rain chances exist across the
area.

Increased moisture surges northward over the cooler nearshore
shelf waters into the tri-state area. This is significant because
this is a favorable setup for fog and marine sea fog. Short term
and high resolution model guidance strongly suggest a few days of
areas to widespread fog, some dense especially in the overnight
hours. This regime will remain in place until the next front
arrives Wednesday night. Temperatures this period will be 10-15
degrees above normal for this time of the year.

Long term [Tuesday night through Sunday]
An upper low across west texas will weaken as it ejects eastward
Tuesday night over the top of building mid level ridging across
the central and southern gulf of mexico. The upper low weakens
into an open wave as it reaches the mid south Wednesday. The
associated cold front arrives during the day Wednesday with a good
chance for showers and storms. Strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out given favorable shear profiles. The front clears the
area Wednesday night with northwest winds behind the front. This
will be a pacific front, as opposed to an arctic front, with
slightly cooler and drier air for Thursday and Friday. Another low
pressure system will affect the region next weekend. Timing and
details are sketchy at this time with disagreement between the
models. However, given the global patterns just beyond the long
term, a significant cold air outbreak is possible across the
northern and central us in time for christmas.

Marine
Winds will become more southerly today as a warm front moves
north across the gulf waters into the southeast untied states.

This will lead to an influx of moisture, when combined with the
cooler nearshore gulf waters, will lead to a couple of days of
marine sea fog beginning tonight and continuing through Wednesday.

The next cold front passage is Wednesday with a brief period of
near advisory level winds. Wind speeds and sea heights decrease
Thursday into the next weekend.

Fire weather
A moistening trend is underway across the region, with periods of
wetting rains beginning across the area this evening. Expect
periodic wet conditions to persist through much of the upcoming
week. Given the increase in moisture across the region, fog is
expected each night through Tuesday night. Otherwise, hazardous
fire weather conditions are not expected.

Hydrology
A couple of rounds of good rain chances will affect the tri-state
region this period. Generally, 1-2 inches of rainfall is expected,
especially across southeast alabama and southwest georgia. Based
on this information, and the fact that the area has been dry,
flooding is not expected.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 72 60 76 60 77 20 30 30 10 10
panama city 71 64 74 62 74 20 40 30 10 10
dothan 70 62 73 61 76 20 60 50 20 20
albany 70 60 73 60 75 10 50 50 30 20
valdosta 73 59 76 60 77 10 20 30 10 10
cross city 75 56 78 57 78 20 10 10 10 10
apalachicola 70 62 74 61 74 30 30 20 10 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Pullin
short term... Scholl
long term... Scholl
aviation... Pullin
marine... Scholl
fire weather... Pullin
hydrology... Scholl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 13 mi51 min E 1.9 G 5.1 51°F 60°F1023.4 hPa
PCBF1 25 mi51 min ENE 8.9 G 13 53°F 62°F1023.3 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 33 mi153 min SE 5.1 G 6 59°F 57°F1022.7 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 35 mi114 min NE 2.9 56°F 55°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL7 mi43 minE 310.00 miFair50°F46°F86%1023.7 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE6E5E6E5SE4CalmSW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4E6E6E3NE3E3
1 day agoCalmN5N7NW9N7N8N8N8N4N7N5N6N6N7N7N8NE4NE5NE6NE7NE6NE4NE7NE6
2 days agoN3N5NW8N9W11NW10W6NW8NW4CalmSE3CalmS5S5S7CalmNE4CalmNW4N4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Allanton, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Allanton
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:47 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:57 AM CST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:37 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:44 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:23 PM CST     1.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.70.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-00.10.30.50.70.91.11.31.41.51.51.4

Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Sun -- 05:48 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:32 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:01 AM CST     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:37 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:44 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 10:36 PM CST     1.48 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.10.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.10.10.30.40.60.91.11.21.41.51.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.