Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 7:36PM Thursday May 24, 2018 9:05 AM CDT (14:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:04PMMoonset 2:50AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 955 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..Southeast winds 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Saturday night and Sunday..East winds 20 to 25 knots becoming southeast on Sunday. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..South winds 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers likely and chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 955 Am Edt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis..Initial wind speeds of 10 knots today and tomorrow will increase to advisory levels over the weekend as a tropical disturbance lifts northward this weekend with increased winds and seas through next week. Mariners will need to pay close attention to the forecast over the next few days as the tropical disturbance has a high chance of development. This disturbance will also result in periods of showers and Thunderstorms into next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico Beach, FL
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location: 30.03, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 241351
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
951 am edt Thu may 24 2018

Update
A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to drift
southward across our far northern georgia locations from quitman
through terrell counties. Showers and thunderstorms will remain
likely in these areas and other locations north of albany ga
through the remainder of the morning, with more widespread
showers storms expected across most inland areas this afternoon
and evening. Ample moisture will persist with pw values from 1.5"
to 2", and SBCAPE above 2000 j kg will provide ample instability
for scattered strong thunderstorms. With little to no shear, most
storms should be of the pulse variety although brief organization
is possible along the sea breeze or outflow boundaries. Severe
weather is not likely, although local strong wind gusts from
downbursts could occur at times. Highs will generally reach the
mid-upper 80s at most inland locations, with lower 80s along the
gulf coast.

Prev discussion [646 am edt]
Near term [through today]
In the upper levels a ridge is over the central u.S. And a trough is
over the northeast. A trough is over the yucatan peninsula and
western cuba. At the surface a weak low is over the southeast today.

With abundant low level moisture across the region another soggy day
is expected. Showers and thunderstorms will develop late this
morning. Activity will increase during the afternoon hours. 60 to 80
percent pops are expected for most areas. Immediate coastal areas
will be a little drier with 30 to 45 percent pops. Mostly cloudy
skies are expected today with highs in the 80s.

Short term [tonight through Saturday]
Deep southerly flow will continue through the short term and thus
will continue with increased moisture across the cwa. Pw values
around 1.75 inches (above normal) will increase to around 2 inches
by the end of the short term as a tropical disturbance lifts
northward into the gulf of mexico. Pops will remain higher in the
30-70% range through the short term. Expect highs in the mid to
upper 80s with lows around 70.

Long term [Saturday night through Thursday]
A broad area of low pressure near the yucatan peninsula is
expected to move northward into the eastern central gulf of mexico
on Saturday. As of yesterday evening, the national hurricane
center had a 70% that the disturbance will develop into a
tropical cyclone over the next 5 days. While models continue to
show differences in the track of the disturbance, the 00z models
at least trended towards each other slightly. Forecast for the
long term, leans towards the ECMWF track which takes the system
into the central gulf of mexico, as opposed to the GFS which has
had convective feedback influencing it and is further east.

Regardless of the exact track though, the system should lift
northward over the weekend and to the gulf coast Sunday Monday.

This will continue the wet forecast with the main focus of the
long term on the heavy rain potential. At this time, it appears
the greatest rainfall amounts would be in the Sunday to Monday
timeframe. Based on amounts (see hydrology section for details),
the flash flood threat will increase for the Sunday Monday time
period.

Aviation [through 12z Friday]
MVFR CIGS will continue until mid morning along with some patchy
fog. Showers will develop by mid to late morning. Thunderstorms will
be widespread in the afternoon and early evening hours.

Marine
Initial winds speeds of 10 knots today and tomorrow will increase
to advisory levels over the weekend as a tropical disturbance
lifts northward this weekend with increased winds and seas through
next week. Mariners will need to pay close attention to the
forecast over the next few days as the tropical disturbance has a
high chance of development. This disturbance will also lead
periods of showers and thunderstorms into next week.

Fire weather
A wet pattern will continue into next week. Dispersion values less
than 20 are expected this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

Otherwise no fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Widespread 2-5" of rain has fallen over the last week and expect
an additional 3-7" over the next week with isolated higher
amounts. Isolated, minor flooding will be possible over the next
few days, but as a tropical disturbance lifts northward, the
threat for flash flooding will increase with the main focus at
this time Sunday into Monday. With differences still in the models
though, timing of the greater rainfall amounts and flash flood
focus is still subject to change. In regards to the flash flood
threat, have seen rises on area rivers with a few in action stage
or expected to reach action stage. In addition, the threat for
minor river flooding will increase late this weekend into next
week.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 88 70 87 71 85 60 20 40 30 60
panama city 84 73 84 74 82 40 20 40 30 50
dothan 86 70 87 70 85 80 40 60 60 60
albany 85 69 87 70 86 80 60 70 50 60
valdosta 87 69 86 69 84 70 70 70 50 60
cross city 89 70 86 70 83 40 40 60 40 60
apalachicola 84 72 84 74 82 20 10 30 30 50

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Lahr
near term... Mcd
short term... Fieux
long term... Fieux
aviation... Mcd
marine... Fieux
fire weather... Mcd
hydrology... Fieux


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 13 mi48 min S 2.9 G 4.1 79°F 82°F1019.5 hPa
PCBF1 25 mi48 min S 5.1 G 5.1 79°F 81°F1019.3 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 33 mi48 min Calm G 1 83°F 80°F1019.6 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 35 mi81 min SE 1 78°F 74°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL7 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair79°F73°F84%1019.2 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S8S9
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S11S11S11S9S10S8S8SW10S6S5SW6SW5SW4SW3S5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS5S10S11S12S13S12S12S11S10S10S8S7S7S6S6S6S7S8S6S7S7S6S7S7
2 days agoE4SE9E6SE8S11S14S11--------------SE5SE7SE6E5SE6E6E7SE4SE5S6

Tide / Current Tables for Allanton, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Allanton
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:01 AM CDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 02:50 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:24 AM CDT     0.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:54 PM CDT     0.67 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:46 PM CDT     0.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.40.40.50.60.70.80.91110.90.90.80.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.6

Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:50 AM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:24 AM CDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:43 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:30 AM CDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:04 PM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:34 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.50.50.50.50.60.70.70.80.90.90.90.90.90.80.80.70.70.70.70.70.60.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.