Thursday, April27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mexico Beach, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 7:19PM Thursday April 27, 2017 9:36 PM CDT (02:36 UTC) Moonrise 7:10AMMoonset 8:48PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 927 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday and Friday night..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Sunday..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Protected waters rough.
Sunday night..South winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet...subsiding to 4 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet in the afternoon. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a light to moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots becoming southeast late in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 927 Pm Edt Thu Apr 27 2017
Synopsis..Winds and seas will gradually elevate to advisory levels by Saturday night and continue through Sunday night as a cold front approaches and pushes through the local waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mexico Beach, FL
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location: 30.03, -85.47     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 280136
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
936 pm edt Thu apr 27 2017

Update
A line of convection remains just north of the CWA and this trend
should continue tonight, although a few cells could clip the
far northern portion of the cwa. Based on this, have reduced pops
across the southern two-thirds of the cwa, but kept the mention of
thunderstorms storms in across the far north through 6z. The
severe potential with the line just north of the CWA will diminish
over the next few hours. By early morning, low clouds are expected
to move into the CWA with patchy fog also possible.

Prev discussion [726 pm edt]
Near/short term [tonight through Saturday night ]
A low pressure system over the great lakes continues to lift
northward into canada. It's associated cold front continues to move
through our region with the majority of the rain affecting our
western panhandle, SE al and SW ga counties. Most convection is
expected to end around midnight. As the front lifts northeastward,
high pressure begins to build in from the south. With an increase in
cloud cover overnight, lows will be relatively warm in the low 70s.

Cloud cover then decreases allowing temps to rise into the low 90s
on Friday and Saturday. These high land temperatures and southerly
flow will likely allow for a seabreeze circulation to form. However,
with a dry airmass over the region, showers and storms are likely
to be isolated and few. Kept rain chances less than 20% each
afternoon.

Long term [Sunday through Thursday]
A strong shortwave over the southern plains Sunday morning will
lift northeastward to the great lakes Monday night. The associated
cold front and convection will reach our alabama and florida
panhandle counties Sunday night, exiting the southeast big bend
sometime Monday night or early Tuesday morning. While the latest
run of the global models show the convection weakening as it
pushes across our cwa, there is the possibility of a severe
weather threat with this system, especially should it slow down or
speed up to take advantage of maximum instability due to daytime
heating. A brief dry period is expected Tuesday through most of
Wednesday before another low pressure system brings rain chances
to the region on Thursday. Highs will begin the period above
average and then become closer to normal from Monday through
Thursday. Lows each night will be above seasonal levels.

Aviation [through 00z Saturday]
Convection has diminished near the TAF sites and should remain
north of the TAF sites the rest of this evening. Expect ifr to
MVFR conditions by morning due to low clouds. Tafs may be a bit on
the optimistic side tomorrow morning regarding the improvement of
conditions. Any remaining wind gusts this evening will subside
over the next hour or two.

Marine
Winds and seas will gradually elevate to advisory levels by
Saturday night and continue through Sunday night as a cold front
approaches and pushes through the local waters.

Fire weather
Gusty winds this afternoon will decrease tonight. Rh will stay above
critical thresholds so there are no fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Average rainfall amounts with today's storms are expected to be
around a half of an inch or less, with isolated amounts between
1-2" inches in stronger storms. These totals should mainly be
confined along and northwest of a line from albany through destin.

Early indications are that average amounts with our next system
late in the weekend/early next week could average around 1" with
isolated amounts up to 2" possible. These values appear as though
they'll mostly be confined along and west of a line from albany
through tallahassee. River levels remain quite low, with ensemble
guidance not indicating any river flooding across the region over
the next 7 days. Even though ensemble guidance is using the lower
end of the QPF envelope, the higher end estimates likely would not
result in much more than action stage along our most sensitive
rivers. Thus, at this time flooding is not a concern over the next
week or so.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 70 89 67 90 69 / 0 10 0 10 10
panama city 72 81 71 83 72 / 10 10 0 10 10
dothan 71 87 68 90 69 / 20 10 0 20 10
albany 70 89 68 92 69 / 30 10 0 10 10
valdosta 69 91 68 92 68 / 0 10 0 10 10
cross city 69 90 67 92 67 / 0 10 0 10 10
apalachicola 72 81 71 82 72 / 0 10 0 10 10

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 5 am edt /4 am cdt/ Friday for
coastal bay-coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Fieux
near term... Barry/chaney
short term... Barry/chaney
long term... Barry
aviation... Fieux
marine... Barry
fire weather... Weston
hydrology... Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 13 mi49 min S 11 G 12 75°F 77°F1012.1 hPa
PCBF1 25 mi49 min SSE 12 G 14 74°F 76°F1011.9 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 33 mi49 min S 9.9 G 13 75°F 76°F1012.3 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 35 mi112 min S 6 76°F 75°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL7 mi41 minSSE 1110.00 miFair75°F73°F94%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW5SW5W4SW4SW6SW5SW6S3S3S8S10S13S11S13S11S11S11S13
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2 days agoCalmNW3NW3NW3NW6NW5NW3N3CalmCalmN3E4W4W8SW5SW8SW8W11W7W9SW10SW6W6SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Allanton, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Allanton
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:10 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:18 AM CDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:16 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:46 PM CDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:48 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.50.60.70.811.11.21.41.51.61.71.61.51.310.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:02 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:10 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:16 PM CDT     1.61 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:17 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:48 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:18 PM CDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.10.20.40.50.70.811.11.31.41.61.61.61.51.31.10.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.