Wednesday, November22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Arabi, LA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 5:02PM Wednesday November 22, 2017 2:28 PM CST (20:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:50AMMoonset 8:34PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 916 Am Cst Wed Nov 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..North winds 20 knots gusts to 30 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Waves or seas subsiding to less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds in the afternoon.
Friday night..Northwest winds near 5 knots. Waves less than 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 916 Am Cst Wed Nov 22 2017
Synopsis..A strong disturbance will move southeast today ahead of a cold front that will move through the northern gulf this afternoon. High pressure will slowly settle over the area through the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Arabi, LA
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location: 30.03, -90.03     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 221719
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
1119 am cst Wed nov 22 2017

Aviation
Vfr conditions to prevail. Gusty winds and some minor llws
considerations with surge of colder air currently advancing
southward through the area today. Winds should abate Thursday
mid-morning. 24 rr

Marine
Extended the small craft advisory areally to now include the tidal
lakes and sounds that were previously omitted. Latest observations
past couple of hours show minimal criteria being met in those
areas as cold air advection with latest surge continues to take
place over the relatively warmer waters. This may need to be
adjusted in time this afternoon package to end sooner than the
coastal waters, but will continue to assess. 24 rr

Prev discussion issued 753 am cst Wed nov 22 2017

Sounding discussion...

winds are breezy from the north northeast near the surface as
cooler and drier air moves in this morning with building high
pressure. The wind is at 25 kts by 1000 feet then becomes light
and variable at mid levels. Flow is westerly above 400 mb. A broad
inversion layer from the surface through 850mb has the atmosphere
stable. There is an altocumulus deck overhead and that is evident
on the sounding at 550 mb.

Krautmann
prev discussion... Issued 300 am cst Wed nov 22 2017
short term...

upper analysis shows a southern stream trough moving into the
northwestern gulf of mexico, a northern trough draped across the
great lakes and appalachian mountains, and ridges well to the east
and west. Radar imagery shows rainfall associated with the southern
trough is moving south and will be a mostly coastal issue by
daybreak. Things are slightly more complex at the surface.

Observations show that the southern disturbance has drawn some drier
air into the CWA ahead of the actual cold front to the north. This
has induced development of a prefrontal surface trough. It will be
moving south across the area over the next few hours. The
continental air mass associated with the northern upper trough will
likely not reach the northern CWA zones until late morning and track
across the area through the early afternoon. This cold front will be
bringing another round of cold mornings with temperatures falling
into the 30s thanksgiving and Friday.

Long term...

the CWA will generally remain under troughing going through this
weekend. Temperatures will try to rebound Saturday as the upper
level pattern bulges east before another trough dives southeast out
of canada across the northeastern us. In response to this, a
reinforcing cold front will swing through the forecast area Saturday
night and keep the area below normal through Monday.

A change in the pattern will finally take place early next week.

Upper ridge that had been stationary to the west of the region will
track east across the gulf south late Monday through late Tuesday.

Increasing column heights will allow for temperatures to return to
normal or slightly above. Both GFS and ECMWF show a trough following
the movement of the ridge and bring the next chance of rainfall to
the cwa.

Meffer
aviation...

lowest ceilings will dissipate rapidly this morning as a cold front
moves through. Ceilings will run ovc120+ for the next few hours
after ceilings at 030 clear and total clearing will occur toward
late morning for most and all sites by afternoon.VFR through this
taf cycle.

Marine...

winds will abruptly rise today as a disturbance moves through the
coastal waters. This disturbance will get forced south this morning
by an approaching cold front that will move through the northern
gulf clearing things out late today but causing winds to remain
elevated. Between the disturbance getting forced south and the front
moving in, winds will ease a bit back to around 15 to 20kt this
afternoon. The front will pass by late afternoon and early evening
causing winds to rise abruptly once again. Since winds will only
ease a bit this afternoon before rising once again, the advisory
will remain posted through this period as well.

Winds ease by the end of the week as high pressure settles across
the northern gulf. Saturday looks like the lightest wind day at the
moment as it transitions from high pressure to a new front moving
through for Saturday night into Sunday. Return flow to become better
established by the start of next week.

Decision support...

dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: marine.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 60 33 59 34 10 0 10 0
btr 63 34 60 35 10 0 10 0
asd 64 38 62 34 10 0 10 0
msy 64 45 61 44 10 0 10 0
gpt 64 40 62 39 10 0 10 0
pql 64 39 64 36 10 0 10 0

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 am cst Thursday for gmz530-532-534-
536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 4 am cst Thursday for gmz532-534-536-
538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 4 mi40 min N 11 G 13 63°F 63°F1017.3 hPa
CARL1 9 mi40 min 59°F
FREL1 21 mi40 min N 11 G 13 65°F 1016.5 hPa46°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi40 min N 13 G 14 63°F 64°F1017.3 hPa
BYGL1 - 8762482 - Bayou Gauche, LA 27 mi40 min NNE 1.9 G 8 65°F 63°F1017.8 hPa
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 32 mi38 min N 3.9 G 9.7 67°F 1017.7 hPa (-2.7)43°F
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 43 mi40 min N 15 G 17 63°F 62°F1017.1 hPa

Wind History for New Canal Station, LA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Orleans, New Orleans Lakefront Airport, LA1 mi35 minN 1010.00 miFair68°F48°F51%1016.9 hPa
New Orleans, New Orleans International Airport, LA12 mi35 minN 7 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy67°F45°F45%1017.9 hPa
New Orleans Naval Air Station - Alvin Callender Field, LA14 mi93 minN 910.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F46°F49%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from NEW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E5E6E7E5E3N5N6N12NE14N12N12N14NE14NE14NE14NE15NE18NE18NE20NE18N11N11N10
1 day agoN8N7NE5SE3E5E7E6E7E7E8E7E7E10E10E8E8E8E8SE9SE9E5NE6NE6E8
2 days agoN15N16N17N16N17N17N16N18NE20NE18NE20NE18NE19NE16E16E13E13E12E11E9E7CalmN6NE8

Tide / Current Tables for New Canal USCG station, Lake Pontchartrain, Louisiana
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New Canal USCG station
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:31 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:07 AM CST     0.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:49 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:01 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:34 PM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:35 PM CST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.20.30.30.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.40.30.30.30.20.20.20.10.10.10.10.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Paris Road Bridge, Mississippi River Delta, Louisiana
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Paris Road Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:16 AM CST     1.19 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:30 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:48 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:12 PM CST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:33 PM CST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.91.11.11.21.21.110.90.70.60.40.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.