Saturday, October21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Marks, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:43AMSunset 7:00PM Saturday October 21, 2017 11:39 AM EDT (15:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:15AMMoonset 7:32PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- 915 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Sunday..East winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..South winds 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon.
Monday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the late evening. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters choppy becoming a light to moderate chop. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 915 Am Edt Sat Oct 21 2017
Synopsis..With a relatively strong high pressure system continuing northeast of the marine area, east winds of 15 to 20 knots will persist through Sunday. Winds will veer to the south Sunday night and Monday as a cold front approaches from the west. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the cold front Monday night, but remain in the 15 to 20 knots range.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Marks, FL
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location: 30.08, -84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 211345
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
945 am edt Sat oct 21 2017

Near term [through today]
The upper level ridge axis is well east of us now and that has
allow a lot of cirrus to spill over the top of the ridge into the
forecast area. We upped cloud cover just a bit to reflect this,
but there will be plenty of sunshine filtering through those
clouds. Afternoon highs will be similar to yesterday with mid 80s
common. That's about 5 degrees above normal.

Prev discussion [631 am edt]
Short term [tonight through Monday]
A vigorous deep-layer trough will approach our forecast area from
the west. At 500 mb, the base of this trough will become
temporarily separated from the mid latitude westerlies Sunday
night and Monday, while a corresponding surface cyclone develops
over southwest al and tracks northward to eastern tn by Monday
evening. Ample deep-layer moisture, coupled with strong q-g
forcing, make rain all but a certainty on Monday, though pops (in
the 20-30% range) will begin as early as Sunday afternoon.

Forecast shear values suggest the potential for organized severe
storms, including rotating updrafts. However, buoyancy may be
rather weak given the expected cloud cover and wide coverage of
rain, and it remains unclear how significant the threat of severe
storms will be. Should severe storms develop, the main threat
would be damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.

Temperatures will be mostly above average as our forecast area
enters into a period of warm moist advection. Lows will be in the
60s tonight, and in the 70s Sunday night. Highs will be in the mid
80s Sunday, but "only" near 80 on Monday due to the clouds and
rain.

Long term [Monday night through Saturday]
The latest global nwp models are in good agreement in developing a
sharp mid-layer dry slot over our region Monday evening, bringing a
rapid end to the rain from west to east. Fair weather and genuinely
cooler temperatures are in store for the remainder of the work week,
followed by increasing rain chances next weekend ahead of the next
trough approaching from the west. Lows will be in the 45 to 50
range Tuesday night through Thursday night. Highs will struggle
to reach 70 on Wednesday (despite ample sun), and will remain in
the 70s through the work week.

Aviation [through 12z Sunday]
Despite several of the nwp guidance sets' insistence, low cigs
and fog have not materialized in our near our forecast area. While
it's still possible these conditions could occur shortly after
dawn, it now appears that the abundant high clouds and non-zero
pbl winds are inhibiting development of low CIGS fog by reducing
radiational cooling. Thus we've backed off on forecasting MVFR
conditions this morning, and are now just forecasting the
continuation ofVFR conditions through tonight, along with ne-e
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Marine
With a relatively strong high pressure system continuing northeast
of the marine area, east winds of 15 to 20 knots will persist through
Sunday, with seas 3 to 6 feet. Winds will veer to the south
Sunday night and Monday as a cold front approaches from the west.

Winds will shift to the west behind the cold front Monday night,
but remain in the 15 to 20 knots range.

Fire weather
High dispersion values above 75 are likely today. A wetting rain
is likely Monday as a cold front moves through the region. Dry air
will move in midweek but rh values will not be low enough to
prompt a red flag warning.

Hydrology
The greatest chance for heavy rain will be Monday, with widespread
qpf amounts of 1 to 2 inches, and isolated amounts up 3 inches.

This is unlikely to cause widespread flooding.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 86 66 86 73 81 0 0 20 40 90
panama city 84 69 84 75 80 0 0 20 60 90
dothan 84 63 86 71 77 0 0 10 60 90
albany 85 63 86 71 80 0 10 10 30 90
valdosta 84 65 86 71 81 0 10 20 20 80
cross city 86 66 87 72 83 0 0 40 20 60
apalachicola 83 70 83 76 81 0 0 30 60 80

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Wool
short term... Fournier
long term... Fournier
aviation... Fournier
marine... Fournier
fire weather... Mcd
hydrology... Fournier


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 15 mi106 min NE 4.1 G 8 73°F 1021.9 hPa
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 28 mi40 min E 12 G 15 76°F 1022 hPa (+1.1)
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 51 mi115 min E 9.9 74°F 71°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Perry-Foley, Perry-Foley Airport, FL23 mi65 minENE 610.00 miFair76°F67°F73%1023 hPa

Wind History from 40J (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE8E7E6E6NE7NE5CalmCalmE4E3NE3CalmCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE5NE4NE3SE8
1 day agoE9
G14
----------------CalmNE4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNE4NE3NE3NE3NE4E6E5
2 days ago--------------------------------------NE3E4NE6E8E7
G15

Tide / Current Tables for Aucilla River entrance, Florida
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Aucilla River entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:13 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:53 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:07 PM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:45 PM EDT     1.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.12.73.23.53.42.92.21.40.70.200.30.91.72.53.13.43.22.82.21.61.21.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for St. Marks River Entrance, Florida
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St. Marks River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:09 AM EDT     3.77 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:15 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:48 AM EDT     0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:40 PM EDT     1.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.333.53.83.63.12.31.50.70.100.311.92.73.43.63.532.31.71.31.21.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.