Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Marks, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:39PM Friday December 15, 2017 6:48 PM EST (23:48 UTC) Moonrise 4:57AMMoonset 4:09PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 353 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..Northeast winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..East winds 10 knots. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots decreasing to around 5 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 2 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday night..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 foot or less. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of showers in the evening.
Monday and Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest early in the morning. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Chance of showers.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 353 Pm Est Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis..Winds will generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range through the weekend with slightly elevated seas (especially offshore). Conditions will calm a bit to start next week before becoming a bit more unsettled by mid-week depending on the timing of a cold front. Showers and Thunderstorm chances increase Sunday night through much of next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Marks, FL
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location: 30.08, -84     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 152321
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
621 pm est Fri dec 15 2017

Aviation [through 00z Sunday]
Expect a broken to overcast upper level cloud deck with surface
winds veering to the north then northeast through the period as
a low level ridge of high pressure shifts eastward. Low to mid
level isentropic ascent across 305k surface is allowing patchy
drizzle across the region this evening, which may continue on and
off through around 06z, but is not expected to reduce vsbys at
this time.

Prev discussion [334 pm est]
Near term [through tonight]
In the upper levels mostly zonal flow is aloft with a trough to
the north and a ridge beginning to build in. At the surface high
pressure is over the southeast but a weak cold front that moved
through today will stall along the gulf coast as it continues to
decay. Clouds will linger for most of the area overnight with
clearing in the northernmost counties. Pops will be 10 percent or
less overnight. Lows tonight will be in the 30s for SE alabama,
and most of fl panhandle and SW georgia. With increased cloud
cover to the south lows will remain in the lower 40s for the fl
big bend, panhandle coast and the valdosta area.

Short term [Saturday through Sunday night]
On Saturday, zonal flow aloft will amplify into deep layer
ridging, with no rain forecast and mid high clouds gradually
dissipating. Sunday, while ridging will prevail over the immediate
tri-state region, a shortwave moving through the mississippi
valley will result in increased rain chances from the central gulf
coast through the tennessee valley. Though the shortwave will
quickly lift northeast and the associated cold front won't quite
reach our area by Sunday night, it will open up a strong low-level
waa regime as the surface ridge slides eastward, with isentropic
ascent focused primarily in the 295-305k window. Thus, shower and
isolated thunderstorm chances will increase dramatically overnight
Sunday, especially along and west of a line from albany through
panama city. After Saturday, temperatures both day and night will
likely be 10+ degrees above normal.

Long term [Monday through Friday]
The unstable WAA regime under low amplitude ridging will continue
through Tuesday when a shortwave is forecast to move through the
southeast and possibly clear out the wet pattern by Wednesday
afternoon. However, there remains disagreement as to just how
fast this is going to happen, with the ECMWF being the slower
solution and not really pushing the shortwave through until
Thursday afternoon. Further, the GFS and the ECMWF are in decent
agreement timing another late week cold front into the region. So,
with the slower ecwmf solution regarding the initial wave, the
entire extended period remains wet while the GFS gives us a couple
dry days to end the week. Fwiw, the canadian favors the more
progressive GFS and so the forecast closer reflects the GFS though
holds slight chance pops through the period. Either way, expect
two frontal systems next week with their exact timing still a bit
uncertain. Highs and lows will generally be above average,
especially in the ECMWF solution.

Marine
Winds will generally be in the 10 to 15 knot range through the
weekend with slightly elevated seas (especially offshore).

Conditions will calm a bit to start next week before becoming a
bit more unsettled by mid-week depending on the timing of a cold
front. Showers and thunderstorm chances increase Sunday night
through much of next week.

Fire weather
Much drier air will be in place tomorrow and relative humidity
values will dip into the low 30s. Transport winds will be low,
which will mean no red flag conditions, but will also mean low
dispersions in the southeast big bend.

Hydrology
Rain is not expected through Sunday. Starting Sunday night we'll
transition to a wetter pattern with the potential for widespread
average rain amounts from 1-3" through next week. These amounts
will be most common along and west of a line from albany through
panama city, with isolated higher amounts possible. At this time,
the forecast rain amounts are not expected to cause any flooding
concerns.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 42 63 44 73 59 10 0 10 10 20
panama city 42 61 50 70 64 10 0 10 20 40
dothan 34 58 40 69 60 10 0 0 20 50
albany 34 58 39 68 58 10 0 0 10 40
valdosta 41 61 42 72 57 10 0 0 0 20
cross city 45 67 46 75 60 10 0 0 0 10
apalachicola 45 62 52 70 65 10 0 10 20 30

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 4 am est 3 am cst Saturday for
coastal gulf.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Mcd
short term... Harrigan
long term... Harrigan
aviation... Nguyen
marine... Harrigan
fire weather... Nguyen
hydrology... Harrigan


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SHPF1 - SHP - Shell Point, FL 15 mi114 min NNW 6 G 8.9 59°F 1019.1 hPa
KTNF1 - Keaton Beach, FL 28 mi48 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 1019.3 hPa (+1.3)
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 51 mi63 min N 7 56°F 42°F

Wind History for Apalachicola, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Perry-Foley, Perry-Foley Airport, FL23 mi73 minNW 510.00 miOvercast63°F41°F46%1020 hPa

Wind History from 40J (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3W4W5W7W6W5NW6NW6NW7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW5W7W7SW10SW8SW7SW4Calm
2 days agoNW5W3W3NW4W4NW3W3NW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N4NW4W4N4W6NW4S9SW7SW4

Tide / Current Tables for Aucilla River entrance, Florida
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Aucilla River entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:34 AM EST     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:24 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:58 PM EST     2.62 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:09 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:16 PM EST     1.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.92.72.11.40.70.1-0.3-0.300.61.322.52.62.52.11.71.41.21.21.51.92.42.8

Tide / Current Tables for St. Marks River Entrance, Florida
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St. Marks River Entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:57 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:29 AM EST     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:25 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:55 PM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:09 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:38 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:11 PM EST     1.28 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.12.82.31.50.70.1-0.3-0.30.10.71.52.22.72.82.62.31.81.51.31.41.72.12.63

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tallahassee, FL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.