Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Orange, TX

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 5:18PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:31 AM CST (08:31 UTC) Moonrise 6:42AMMoonset 5:49PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 948 Pm Cst Fri Nov 17 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Chance of showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Lake waters rough.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Monday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters a light chop. Chance of rain showers.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Slight chance of rain showers.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
GMZ400 Synopsis For Lower Atchafalaya River La To High Island Tx Out 60 Nm Including Sabine And Calcasieu Lakes And Vermilion Bay 948 Pm Cst Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis.. Moderate southerly winds will occur into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. The front is forecast to push through the coastal waters Saturday evening, bringing a chance of showers, followed by a strong offshore flow and rough seas that will persist into Sunday. East to southeast winds are forecast to develop Monday, with northerly winds returning with the next front on Tuesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Orange, TX
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location: 30.1, -93.72     debug

Area Discussion for - Lake Charles, LA
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Fxus64 klch 180547
area forecast discussion
national weather service lake charles la
1147 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017

18 06z TAF issuance.

Few changes from previous thinking as breezy conditions will
persist in advance of a cold front. TAF sites remainVFR so far
this evening with either sct clouds or bkn ovcVFR cigs. Expect
cigs will lower some overnight to MVFR at all sites, with MVFR
cigs expected to prevail through the day Saturday. FROPA timing
still looks to occur ~22z at bpt aex, ~23z at lch, and ~01-02z at
lft ara, with vcsh mainly along the boundary. Winds will shift
nwly around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt behind the front, with
sky conditions bcmgVFR.


Prev discussion issued 958 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017

well this is the last night where temperatures will hover in the
mid to upper 60s around sunrise. Currently lake charles is at
71... Poe 70... Bpt 72... .Aex 69... . Lft 69... Tonight will see a
bit of fog but nothing like we have had the last several mornings.

But the real story is the frontal system expected to move through
the area tomorrow aftn. You will not miss this front although
temps will get back into the 80s prior to frontal passage. Aftr
the frontal passage look to see temps dropping thru the late
afternoon hours. There will be a chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Sunday morning upper 40s.

But for tonight the zones look fine.

Prev discussion... Issued 608 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017

18 00z TAF issuance.


wind gusts are beginning to diminish acrs the area although
southerly winds will remain between 7-12 kt overnight. This should
help keep fog development at bay, and instead allow for the
formation of MVFR CIGS after 06z. Winds will strengthen again
Saturday morning, bcmg southwesterly ahead of a cold front that
will move through late in the day. Expect sustained speeds
12-17 kt with gusts 20-25 kt. A few -shra will be possible,
mainly along the frontal boundary as it moves through the
northwestern half of the area, reaching roughly an aex-lch line
by 00z. Winds will continue to be strong behind the front,
shifting west to northwest, while CIGS will lift toVFR.

prev discussion... Issued 334 pm cst Fri nov 17 2017

gradient and flow between surface ridge along the east coast and
low pressure over the southern plains is producing breezy south
winds today helping to produce another warm and humid november
day. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows an upper level
disturbance moving out of the pacific northwest into the northern


gradient should allow southerly boundary layer winds to stay up
in the 15 to 20 knot range, with surface winds near 10 knots
tonight. Therefore, not expecting much in the way of fog
development. The moist flow off the gulf should result in a warm
and muggy night with a low cloud overcast for the forecast area.

Still decent agreement with upper level disturbance moving out of
the pacific northwest to move across the northern plains to the
eastern us over the weekend as an amplifying short wave. This will
help a canadian cold front to move across the forecast area from
late Saturday afternoon and early Saturday evening. The overall
moisture profile is not all that impressive with mean rh in the 50
to 60 percent range and pwat around 1.3 inches. However, decent
low level convergence and frontal lift should be enough to produce
scattered showers ahead of the front. Instability still looks
rather weather weak ahead of the front, with best upper level
dynamics well off to the northeast. Therefore, will keep the
predominate weather as showers with no mention of thunder at this

A much cooler and drier air mass will then move in behind the
front for the remainder of the weekend. Surface ridge looks to
settle across the forecast area on Sunday night, and this will
likely provide rather chilly temperatures, with mid 30s for
central louisiana and the lakes area of southeast texas, with
upper 30s possible down to the usual cool spots of the i-10

Surface ridge will move off to the east on Monday with some return
flow moisture and a moderation in temperatures.

Better agreement today in guidance for Tuesday through the
remainder of the holiday week. The next canadian cold front is
expected on Tuesday night. Operational ECMWF still looks to be on
the high end of the ensemble range when it comes to being too
robust on the return flow moisture and thus the pops for Tuesday
into early Wednesday. Therefore, will again go a little below
superblend numbers for those days and closer to a ECMWF ensemble
mean GFS compromise, which would bring low end chance pops for
Tuesday daytime, with a gradual decrease in pops Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning.

Guidance is also in better agreement with sweeping the front out
into the gulf for thanksgiving into next Friday, thus keeping
better moisture and any gulf low development further to the south
and east of the forecast area. Therefore, a dry and rather cooler
turkey day into Friday looks to be in the works.


low pressure over the southern plains is helping to increase the
gradient across the forecast area and producing breezy southerly
winds. The moderate onshore winds will continue for tonight into
Saturday with wind speeds between 15 and 20 knots. Therefore, will
have the small craft exercise caution headline for the coastal
waters forecast.

A canadian cold front will move across the coastal waters on early
Saturday evening. With good cold air advection moving over
relatively warm gulf waters, decent mixing should occur allowing
for strong and gusty north winds to develop. Sustained winds
overnight Saturday into Sunday should be 25 to 30 knots with
definite small craft advisory conditions. Gusts over gale force
to near 40 knots will be possible, so there is also the
possibility that a gale watch warning may be issued using the
frequent gust criteria.

Winds will begin to decrease Sunday night as the high pressure
system behind the cold front settles across the coastal waters.


Preliminary point temps pops
Aex 66 80 41 62 10 30 0 0
lch 69 80 47 64 10 30 10 0
lft 67 81 47 63 0 30 20 0
bpt 67 81 46 65 10 30 10 0

Lch watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Tx... None.

Gm... Small craft exercise caution through Saturday afternoon for

Small craft exercise caution from 6 am cst Saturday through
Saturday afternoon for gmz452-455.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KCVW 31 mi32 min S 12 73°F 70°F
SRST2 - Sabine Pass, TX 33 mi32 min S 9.9 G 13 72°F 1011.8 hPa (-2.1)71°F

Wind History for Port Arthur, TX
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Orange, Orange County Airport, TX5 mi37 minSSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F70°F96%1012.2 hPa
Southland Field, LA18 mi37 minS 910.00 miFair72°F68°F89%1012.2 hPa
Beaumont/Port Arthur Southeast Texas Regional Airport, TX19 mi39 minS 610.00 miFair70°F68°F93%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from ORG (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE4CalmSE3SE5SE5S5SE5S9S11
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmS4SE5S3SE5S7S7SE4S3CalmCalmSE5SE4SE5S3CalmSE3
2 days agoN3CalmCalmE3CalmE3SE8SE6SE6S5W4S3SW4SW4S3S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Orange (Old Navy Base), Texas
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Orange (Old Navy Base)
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Sat -- 01:10 AM CST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:14 AM CST     0.70 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 AM CST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:41 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 01:08 PM CST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:17 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:49 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:50 PM CST     0.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Rainbow Bridge, Neches River, Texas
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Rainbow Bridge
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Sat -- 01:09 AM CST     0.81 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:34 AM CST     0.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 AM CST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:42 AM CST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:43 AM CST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:59 PM CST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:17 PM CST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:49 PM CST     Moonset
Sat -- 09:50 PM CST     0.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of SouthCentralPlains    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Lake Charles, LA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Lake Charles, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.