Sunrise 6:44 AM   Sunset 7:44 PM Moonrise 12:25 PM   Moonset 2:01 AM

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GMZ430 Sabine Lake- 330 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 16 2024
.small craft exercise caution in effect through late tonight - .
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late. Lake waters choppy. Wednesday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Wednesday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Thursday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Thursday night - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Lake waters choppy. Friday night - South winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Lake waters choppy. Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Saturday night - East winds around 10 knots. Lake waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Sunday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Lake waters choppy.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

GMZ400 330 Pm Cdt Tue Apr 16 2024
Synopsis - Modest and gusty south winds will ease late tonight into Wednesday as a storm system over the plains lifts off toward the great lakes, with a generally light onshore flow prevailing into the weekend. Precipitation chances are negligible until the weekend.

FXUS64 KLCH 162038 AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lake Charles LA 338 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

SHORT TERM
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Upper trof and associated SFC cyclone over the Central Plains progged to lift out toward the Great Lakes tonight and WED.
Associated LLJ and tight pressure gradient yielding gusty south winds across the area this afternoon, which will ease tonight as the gradient relaxes and the LLJ pulls away to the NE. Warm and humid weather will continue, with lows around 70 and highs in the lower/mid 80s. A weak impulse in the southern stream will traverse the area THU, but GFS/NAM FCST soundings show a decent capping inversion in place, which should act to inhibit convection. Thus, expect that THU will largely be a repeat of WED; warm and cloudy but otherwise dry.

13

LONG TERM
(Friday through next Monday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

The most active portion of the entire forecast period can be found in the longterm. Friday will be rather warm under strong high pressure influence and increasing heights aloft. Generally everyone should be in the mid to upper 80s (several degrees above climo normals) with minimal precipitation chances to end the work week.

Moving into Saturday, shortwave trof moving over the desert southwest will help to usher high pressure and upper ridging along to the east. This trof is set to swipe across the southern US states Saturday and Sunday, pulling southward a frontal system from the central US into the deep southeastern US. Between increasing forcing from the trof/front and decreasing heights aloft, precipitation chances start to increase Saturday morning. The front will slowly approach from the north and west on Saturday with PoPs increasing slowly but markedly into Sunday when the front reaches the region.
While moisture will be entrenched over the area, it does not appear we'll be looking at a flooding situation. Current forecast QPF Saturday and Sunday is generally 0.50 to 1.00 inches or less.

The front slides off to the east Monday with high pressure building in thereafter.

Above average temps early in the period will drop largely on Sunday between cool airmass moving in and cloud cover/rain cooled air.
Rebounding temps take place Monday with temps in the mid 70s and near 80 on Tuesday.

11/Calhoun

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Mix of VFR and MVFR CIGS this afternoon amid modest and gusty south winds. Pressure gradient will remain elevated into early evening, with winds easing into the overnight hours. Prevailing MVFR CIGS are expected to return this evening all terminals, with the decrease in boundary layer winds allowing for the potential for some light VSBY restrictions (4-6SM) and IFR CIGS at the I-10 terminals overnight into early WED morning. Any VSBY restrictions and IFR CIGS will improve mid to late morning into prevailing MVFR through the end of this forecast period.

13

MARINE
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Modest and gusty south winds will ease late tonight into Wednesday as a storm system over the Plains lifts off toward the Great Lakes, with a generally light onshore flow prevailing into the weekend. Precipitation chances are negligible until the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AEX 69 83 68 84 / 10 10 10 20 LCH 71 81 70 81 / 0 10 0 0 LFT 71 83 71 84 / 0 10 0 10 BPT 71 82 71 83 / 0 10 0 0

LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.

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