Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:56PM Friday March 22, 2019 7:36 AM CDT (12:36 UTC) Moonrise 8:56PMMoonset 8:03AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Expires:201903221430;;733845 Fzus52 Ktae 220628 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 228 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-221430- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 228 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019 /128 Am Cdt Fri Mar 22 2019/
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 knots in the late evening. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Monday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 228 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis.. Northwest winds will shift to northeast winds on Saturday but will remain at 15 knots or less with seas less than 3 feet. Winds turn southerly on Sunday and will be around 10 knots with seas 1 to 2 feet. Both winds and seas will increase slightly on Tuesday with the passage of a front.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.11, -85.74     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 221230
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
830 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Update
Minor adjustments to match hourly trends, but no significant
changes to the forecast.

Prev discussion [640 am edt]
Near term [through today]
Deep layer northwest flow on the backside of the exiting upper
trough will continue to funnel a very dry airmass into the region.

Aside from scattered cirrus this afternoon, skies will be sunny.

As surface high pressure builds in from the west, the gradient will
begin to relax and winds will be much lighter than what we saw on
Thursday. With MAX temps in the lower to mid 70s and dew points in
the 30s, minimum relative humidity values will drop into the mid to
upper 20 percent range this afternoon.

Short term [tonight through Sunday night]
Deep layer ridging continues to build tonight between a departing
upper low in the northeast and the next low digging into the desert
sw. Surface high pressure centered over il keeps the local area dry
with northerly flow continuing. The surface high shifts off to the
east Sunday, with southerly flow returning. Mid level heights
continue to rise so a warming trend will occur through the weekend.

Highs Saturday will be in the mid 70s, warming to the upper 70s on
Sunday. Lows will rise from the lower 40s tonight to the lower 50s
by Sunday night.

Long term [Monday through Friday]
The upper low that was over the desert SW weakens and opens up as it
moves east across the midwest. A weak mid level trough will
develop with surface lows riding along it. This front should be
near the ar ms border by Monday morning and pass southeast through
the area by Tuesday morning with some lingering showers Tuesday.

Tonight's ECMWF run is continuing to move further and further
towards the GFS (which has been very consistent) and is really
only different by a few hours of timing now. The GFS also leaves
the heavier rain north of us while the ECMWF brings a heavier
batch through N fl. Soundings are favorable for a few
thunderstorms with the front on Monday. Temps before the front
Monday will warm into the upper 70s, some spots hitting 80. Behind
the front, highs cool into the upper 60s lower 70s for Tue wed.

Sprawling high pressure at the surface builds in by Wednesday with
ridging aloft returning. This will keep the next system at bay at
least until Friday night with dry weather and temperatures
warming through then. Thursday will see highs in the lower 70s and
then back near 80 for Friday.

Aviation
[through 12z Saturday]
vfr conditions through the period with unlimited vsby and cigs.

Winds will be from the northwest around 10 knots or less.

Marine
Northwest winds will shift to northeast winds on Saturday but will
remain at 15 knots or less with seas less than 3 feet. Winds turn
southerly on Sunday and will be around 10 knots with seas 1 to 2
feet. Both winds and seas will increase slightly on Tuesday with
the passage of a front.

Fire weather
A very dry airmass will remain in place through Saturday with
minimum afternoon relative humidity dropping into the mid to upper
20 percent range both days. Daytime winds will be much lighter than
what we saw on Thursday so red flag conditions are not expected. Low
level moisture will begin to return on Sunday as winds swing around
to become more southerly.

Hydrology
Dry weather continues through Monday night until a front moves
through on Tuesday. Less than half an inch of rainfall is forecast
so no flooding is expected.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 73 43 77 47 77 0 0 0 0 0
panama city 68 49 71 52 72 0 0 0 0 0
dothan 70 43 73 47 76 0 0 0 0 0
albany 71 43 73 47 77 0 0 0 0 0
valdosta 71 43 75 46 78 0 0 0 0 0
cross city 73 44 77 48 79 0 0 0 0 0
apalachicola 69 49 70 53 71 0 0 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Update... Lf
near term... Barry
short term... Ln
long term... Ln
aviation... Barry
marine... Ln
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Ln


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi42 min NNW 8 G 12 53°F 64°F1019.9 hPa
PCBF1 10 mi42 min NNW 7 G 9.9 51°F 64°F1020 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 48 mi42 min NW 4.1 G 7 52°F 63°F1019.1 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi40 minN 710.00 miFair51°F39°F65%1019.9 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL17 mi43 minW 310.00 miFair43°F37°F82%1020.6 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW11------W13W17W18W17W17
G22
W16W14--W10W9W10W9W8W11NW11N8N10N8N7
1 day agoNE7E7NE11E10
G15
NE7N8N5N4NW4W11W11W7NW5NW5NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW4NW3CalmNW5
2 days agoNE8NE11NE9----N7N8N6N8N7N5NE4NE5NE5NE5NE4NE4E4E4NE4E6E6NE4NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:04 AM CDT     0.59 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:00 AM CDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:03 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:04 AM CDT     0.65 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:16 PM CDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:56 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Tide / Current Tables for Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Parker
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:30 AM CDT     0.70 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:24 AM CDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:02 AM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:30 PM CDT     0.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:55 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:55 PM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:40 PM CDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.