Wednesday, January24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 5:13PM Tuesday January 23, 2018 11:27 PM CST (05:27 UTC) Moonrise 11:40AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 1049 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
.small craft operators exercise caution...
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday..North winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds in the afternoon. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Thursday night..East winds 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy.
Friday night..East winds 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Slight chance of rain.
Saturday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Protected waters choppy. Chance of rain.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Protected waters choppy. Rain likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet in the afternoon. Protected waters choppy. Rain likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 1049 Pm Est Tue Jan 23 2018
Synopsis..Northerly winds of 15 to 20 knots are expected tonight behind a cold front, and small craft should exercise caution. Winds will gradually veer to northeast by Thursday and then easterly on Friday. Periods of cautionary to advisory level winds near 20 knots are expected through the weekend. A period of heavy rain is also possible Saturday night into Sunday as an area of low pressure moves across the northeast gulf.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.11, -85.74     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 232310
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
610 pm est Tue jan 23 2018

Aviation [through 00z Thursday]
Vfr through the period with light northwest winds.

Prev discussion [244 pm est]
Near term [through tonight]
At 18z, the cold front was just east of a line from valdosta, ga
to perry, fl. Cold air advection will continue into the overnight
hours, allowing lows to dip into the 30s tonight, with the
coolest temperatures in southeast alabama.

Short term [Wednesday through Thursday night]
Dry weather will prevail through the short term. An upper level
shortwave will pass north of the area Wednesday night with little
impact given the dry airmass in place. High pressure centered
across the lower ms valley on Wednesday will slide eastward to
the carolinas by Thursday night. Afternoon high temperatures are
expected to range from the upper 50s to mid 60s across the area
with overnight lows mainly in the 30s.

Long term [Friday through Tuesday]
Some model disagreement is evident this weekend with the 12z gfs
tracking an area of low pressure farther south over the northeast
gulf on Saturday night into Sunday compared to the 12z ECMWF and
canadian. This results in the heaviest rainfall staying just
offshore in the gfs, with the ECMWF and canadian models showing
much needed moderate to heavy rainfall farther to the north
across inland areas. The 12z GFS ensemble mean is a bit heavier
than the GFS across inland areas, and the 12z GFS may be somewhat
of a southern outlier. Rain chances look likely for Saturday night
into Sunday. Even if a more northerly low track pans out,
instability looks very marginal and thunderstorm chances appear to
be confined to offshore at this time. Clearing is expected behind
the system on Monday with near average temperatures.

Marine
Northerly winds of 15 to 20 knots are expected tonight behind a
cold front, and small craft should exercise caution. Winds will
gradually veer to northeast by Thursday and then easterly on
Friday. Periods of cautionary to advisory level winds near 20
knots are expected through the weekend. A period of heavy rain is
also possible Saturday night into Sunday as an area of low
pressure moves across the northeast gulf.

Fire weather
A drier airmass has filtered into the tri-state area behind a cold
frontal passage this morning. Near critical afternoon relative
humidity values are possible Thursday but winds will preclude any
fire weather concerns.

Hydrology
Some much needed rainfall is likely on Saturday night into Sunday
as an area of low pressure moves across the northeast gulf. While
there remains some uncertainty with rainfall amounts, there is
potential for the system to produce widespread 1-2 inch amounts
with locally heavier totals. Should this occur, it would be
beneficial rainfall with the ongoing drought conditions.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 38 60 33 63 35 0 0 0 0 0
panama city 41 57 38 61 41 0 0 0 0 0
dothan 34 59 31 62 35 0 0 0 0 0
albany 37 59 33 61 34 0 0 0 0 0
valdosta 38 58 34 61 36 0 0 0 0 0
cross city 38 62 34 63 36 0 0 0 0 0
apalachicola 40 59 38 60 41 0 0 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until midnight est 11 pm cst tonight for
coastal gulf.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Nguyen
short term... Dvd
long term... Dvd
aviation... Scholl
marine... Dvd
fire weather... Scholl
hydrology... Dvd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi40 min N 7 G 11 53°F 56°F1022.8 hPa
PCBF1 10 mi40 min NNW 6 G 8 50°F 56°F1023 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 48 mi40 min N 8 G 11 52°F 54°F1021.1 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 50 mi103 min NW 5.1 51°F 43°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi92 minNNW 710.00 miFair48°F39°F73%1022.3 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL17 mi35 minNNW 610.00 miFair43°F37°F80%1023.3 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S5S8W6NW10NW8NW11N7N10N10
G17
N9NW8NW10W10W12W10W12NW7NW7NW6NW8NW5N7N8
1 day agoE4E4E3E4E5E5SE7E7SE10SE15
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmE3CalmNE6E5E6E7E5E3S4W4S6S3SE3E4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:20 AM CST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:17 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 03:41 PM CST     0.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:20 PM CST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:13 PM CST     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.30.40.50.60.60.60.60.50.40.30.10-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Parker
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:32 AM CST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:16 AM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:20 PM CST     First Quarter
Wed -- 05:12 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:15 PM CST     0.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.20.20.40.50.60.70.70.70.60.50.40.30.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.