Saturday, April29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 7:20PM Saturday April 29, 2017 12:33 AM CDT (05:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:57AMMoonset 11:01PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 850 Pm Edt Fri Apr 28 2017
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Saturday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 4 to 6 feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Sunday..Southeast winds 20 knots. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Sunday night..South winds 20 knots. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 10 feet. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms after midnight.
Monday..South winds 20 knots...becoming west 10 knots in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Seas subsiding to 4 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet in the afternoon. Protected waters choppy...becoming a light chop. Showers and Thunderstorms...mainly in the morning.
Monday night..Northwest winds 5 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters smooth. Slight chance of rain.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth. Slight chance of rain.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet. Protected waters mostly smooth.
Wednesday..South winds 10 knots. Seas 2 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Slight chance of rain.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 850 Pm Edt Fri Apr 28 2017
Synopsis..A relatively strong difference in pressure between a ridge to the east and a low to the west will develop across the marine area through early Monday...with southeast to south winds increasing to advisory levels at times...especially west of apalachicola. This will lead to high seas and above normal tides.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.11, -85.74     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 290522
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
122 am edt Sat apr 29 2017

Aviation [through 06z Sunday]
Ifr to lifr conditions are expected to develop from tlh westward
over the next several hours, with low CIGS and fog restricting
vsbys at these sites. MVFR conditions will be possible at aby and
vld through tomorrow morning. Conditions will be slow to improved
after sunrise, withVFR conditions resuming by early afternoon.

Southerly winds of 10 to 15 kts will prevail, with occasional
higher gusts through the afternoon.

Prev discussion [800 pm edt]
Near term [through tonight]
No significant changes were made to tonight's forecast, just made
minor updates to reflect latest guidance on cloud cover and
tonight's temperatures. Dry conditions are still expected to
prevail with some patchy fog possible in the early morning, mainly
from the tallahassee area westward into SE alabama and the fl
panhandle where the boundary layer will be nearly saturated.

Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across
our area.

Short term [Saturday through Sunday night]
The broad upper trough currently over the western CONUS will
translate slowly eastward this weekend. The core of trough will be
over the upper ms valley late Sunday night, while the attendant
surface cold front will be moving into southeast al and the fl
panhandle. Until then local rain chances will generally be less than
20% (during the afternoon hours). Temperatures will be above average
with highs 85 to 90, and lows 65 to 70.

As for Sunday night, pops will increase from west to east across
southeast al and the fl panhandle, reaching at least 50% at dothan
and panama city by daybreak Monday. It appears there will be
sufficient vertical wind shear and buoyancy for at least some storm
organization, but diminishing q-g forcing and CAPE may make
conditions somewhat marginal for severe storms.

Long term [Monday through Friday]
The aforementioned cold front/upper trough will move through our
forecast area Monday, bringing a good chance of rain to the region.

There will be a brief period of fair weather Tuesday and Tuesday
night, but the synoptic pattern will become more complex mid to late
week as a positive-tilt trough develops over the lower ms valley and
translates slowly eastward. This low will close off over ga or al
Friday night, but there is considerable disagreement about QPF among
the global models to close out the week. The mean of the forecasts
yields a chance of rain each day Wednesday through Friday, with near-
average temperatures.

Marine
A relatively strong pressure gradient will develop across the marine
area through early Monday, with southeast to south winds increasing
to advisory levels at times, especially west of apalachicola. This
will lead to high seas and above-normal tides. Early indications are
that peak storm tides of 2 to 3 feet are possible along the
apalachee bay coast, with inundation of about 1 foot along the
coasts of the fl panhandle and big bend Monday.

Fire weather
Rh values will remain above critical thresholds and preclude any red
flag warnings over the next few days. Winds will be elevated over
the weekend. Dispersion values will be high across parts of the big
bend Saturday afternoon and expand to cover parts of the big bend,
florida panhandle, southwest georgia and southeast alabama on Sunday
afternoon.

Hydrology
Local rivers will remain below flood stage through at least Monday
morning. QPF values will generally be in the 0.50 to 1 inch range
from tallahassee north and westward, and not enough to cause
significant river rises. QPF values in north fl will likely be
much less.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 88 70 87 71 78 / 10 0 0 10 60
panama city 82 72 80 73 74 / 10 0 0 30 60
dothan 89 68 87 70 75 / 10 0 0 50 60
albany 91 70 89 71 79 / 10 0 0 20 60
valdosta 91 69 89 70 83 / 10 10 10 20 50
cross city 91 69 91 70 83 / 10 0 10 20 30
apalachicola 82 72 81 73 77 / 0 0 0 10 60

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 5 am edt /4 am cdt/ early this
morning for coastal bay-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Lahr
short term... Fournier
long term... Fournier
aviation... Pullin
marine... Fournier
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Fournier


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi45 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 78°F1018 hPa
PCBF1 10 mi45 min SE 5.1 G 7 75°F 77°F1017.7 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 48 mi45 min SSE 2.9 G 4.1 75°F 77°F1018.1 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 50 mi108 min SSE 1.9 75°F 74°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi37 minESE 49.00 miOvercast73°F72°F96%1018.2 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL17 mi40 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist72°F70°F94%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9S9SE10SE12S9S12S10S11SE14S14SE12S16
G21
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S13SE14S14SE14SE12SE10SE4SE6SE4CalmE4
1 day agoSE16S13S16S15
G22
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2 days agoSW4SW6SW5SW6S3S3S8S10S13S11S13S11S11S11S13
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G22

Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:01 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:57 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:22 AM CDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:19 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:28 PM CDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 11:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.10.20.40.60.811.21.31.51.61.71.71.61.41.20.90.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Parker
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:00 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:56 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:55 PM CDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:18 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:00 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.3-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.70.91.21.41.61.81.921.91.81.61.310.70.40.1-0.1-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.