Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 5:12PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 12:20 PM CST (18:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:16PMMoonset 9:41AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Expires:201901232030;;802612 Fzus52 Ktae 231424 Cwftae Coastal Waters Forecast For Florida Big Bend And Eastern Panhandle National Weather Service Tallahassee Fl 924 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019 Gulf Coastal Waters From The Mouth Of The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm. Seas Are Provided As A Range Of The Average Height Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Waves...along With The Occasional Height Of The Average Highest 1/10 Of The Waves. Gmz730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775-232030- Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 924 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 20 to 25 knots. Gusts to 40 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 6 to 8 feet with occasional seas up to 12 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..South winds 25 knots with gusts to around 40 knots becoming west after midnight. Seas 6 to 9 feet with occasional seas up to 11 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet after midnight. Dominant period 7 seconds. Protected waters rough. Rain showers and chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Friday..North winds 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Saturday through Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 924 Am Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis.. Strong southeast winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts of 35 to to 40 knots will prevail through Wednesday over our western waters, becoming south Wednesday night. This will build seas to 6 to 9 feet with occasional sets up to 11 feet today and tonight. Winds are expected to fall to 15 to 20 knots tomorrow morning morning, but will remain elevated through tomorrow night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.11, -85.74     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 231731
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
1231 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Aviation
[through 18z Thursday]
strong gusty southeasterly winds continue at all TAF sites.

Sustained winds of 10 to 25 kts with gusts up to 40kts at times
are expected through the evening hours. Winds will gradually
decrease through the night. Shra tsra will move from west to east
this evening, affecting all TAF sites. MVFR CIGS will impact all
taf sites later this afternoon, with reduced conditions continuing
through Thursday morning before gradually improving.

Prev discussion [920 am est]
Near term [today and tonight]
Upper level trough is digging across the central u.S. This morning
with an area of showers and thunderstorms stretching from eastern tx
northward through the midwest that will slide eastward today. A few
showers are possible this morning into the early afternoon,
particularly across the western portion of the cwa, but the main
focus will be late afternoon and tonight when a line of showers and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms pushes through the CWA ahead of
the front. All areas of the CWA will see rain from this and have
included 100% pops as the line moves through.

Plenty of shear exists with this system with guidance indicating 35-
40 knots of 0-1km shear and around 50-60 knots of 0-6km shear as the
system moves through. While instability remains on the lower side,
around 500 j kg, it is still sufficient when combined with the
aforementioned shear for a few severe thunderstorms. SPC has
highlighted the florida panhandle and portions of southeast alabama
and the florida big bend in the marginal risk, with a slight risk
just west of the cwa. The main threat for severe storms will be from
late afternoon through early Thursday morning. While damaging wind
is the main threat with this system, with such high low level shear
values, a few tornadoes will also be possible. Given the threat for
severe weather to persist into the overnight hours, please take the
time make sure you have multiple ways to get warnings, even when
asleep.

850mb winds indicate 40-60 knot winds well ahead of the line, so in
addition to the severe threat associated with the line of convection
late this afternoon into tonight, widespread, gusty winds will begin
this morning and increase into the afternoon. While some gusts of 30
to even 35 mph will be possible today, at this point expect
conditions to remain below wind advisory criteria but will monitor
trends through the morning as higher winds are not out of the
question.

Short term [tonight through Friday]
The cold front will exit our area Thursday. In its wake, a much
colder airmass will begin to work its way into the southeast. The
approaching ridge will remain to our northwest through Friday, but
we'll close out the work week with moderate northwest winds, daytime
highs in the 50s Thursday and Friday, and lows in the 30s Friday
morning.

Long term [Friday night through Wednesday]
The ridge will reach the tri-state area Friday night, allowing for
temperatures to drop into the upper 20s in southeast al and
southwest ga, low 30s in north florida. The low level ridge will
weaken as it sits over the area through Monday and morning
temperatures will warm steadily back into the low 40s by Monday
night. Around Monday night Tuesday, the upper level trough will
deepen and a weak frontal system is expected to develop, crossing
the tri-state area Tuesday-Tuesday night. Kept pops maxed at 30-40%
Tuesday, 20% over our eastern zones Tuesday night. With another cold
airmass sweeping in behind it, temps will likely return to the low
30s around the end of the period.

Marine
Strong southeast winds of 20 to 25 knots with gusts of 35 to to 40
knots will prevail through Wednesday over our western waters,
becoming south Wednesday night. This will build seas to 6 to 9 feet
with occasional sets up to 11 feet today and tonight. Winds are
expected to fall to 15 to 20 knots tomorrow morning morning, but
will remain elevated through tomorrow night.

Fire weather
A cold front will move through the area tonight, bringing a wetting
rain to the whole area. Given this, red flag conditions are not
forecast despite the stronger winds today and tonight.

Hydrology
The next system is expected to bring 1-2 inches of rain across most
of the area, with about 2-3" in southeast al and locally heavier
amounts possible. Significant flooding is not expected with these
rainfall amounts, although some local creeks and streams that get
the heaviest amounts could rise back to near minor flood stage. Some
minor coastal flooding is also possible across the big bend region
with strong onshore flow. The limiting factor here is that the
strongest surge component appears to be overlaid with low tide based
on the latest timing.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 50 56 34 56 30 100 10 0 0 0
panama city 46 55 39 56 36 100 0 0 0 0
dothan 41 52 34 52 29 100 0 0 0 0
albany 47 54 34 53 28 100 10 0 0 0
valdosta 53 57 34 55 30 100 10 0 0 0
cross city 57 61 36 58 33 100 20 0 0 0
apalachicola 50 57 38 57 36 100 0 0 0 0

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... Coastal flood advisory until 7 am est Thursday for coastal dixie-
coastal franklin-coastal jefferson-coastal taylor-coastal
wakulla.

Wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 am est Thursday for
coastal franklin-coastal wakulla-gadsden-inland franklin-
inland wakulla-leon-liberty.

High rip current risk through Thursday morning for coastal bay-
coastal franklin-coastal gulf-south walton.

High surf advisory until 7 am est 6 am cst Thursday for
coastal bay-south walton.

Wind advisory until 10 pm est 9 pm cst this evening for
calhoun-central walton-coastal bay-coastal gulf-holmes-
inland bay-inland gulf-jackson-north walton-south walton-
washington.

Ga... Wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 1 am est Thursday for
baker-calhoun-clay-decatur-dougherty-early-grady-lee-miller-
mitchell-quitman-randolph-seminole-terrell.

Al... Wind advisory until 9 pm cst this evening for coffee-dale-geneva-
henry-houston.

Gm... Gale warning until 1 pm est Thursday for apalachee bay or
coastal waters from keaton beach to ochlockonee river fl
out to 20 nm-coastal waters from ochlockonee river to
apalachicola fl out to 20 nm-coastal waters from suwannee
river to keaton beach fl out 20 nm-coastal waters from
mexico beach to apalachicola fl out 20 nm-coastal waters
from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county line fl out 20
nm-waters from suwannee river to apalachicola fl from 20 to
60 nm-waters from apalachicola to mexico beach fl from 20
to 60 nm-waters from mexico beach to okaloosa walton county
line fl from 20 to 60 nm.

Near term... Fieux
short term... Nguyen
long term... Nguyen
aviation... Pullin
marine... Nguyen
fire weather... Fieux
hydrology... Nguyen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi33 min SE 21 G 32 66°F 59°F1017.1 hPa
PCBF1 10 mi33 min SE 27 G 32 64°F 61°F1016 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 48 mi33 min SSE 16 G 19 64°F 56°F1017.6 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi25 minSSE 23 G 336.00 miOvercast with Haze and Windy68°F60°F77%1017.2 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL17 mi28 minESE 20 G 2910.00 miOvercast and Breezy71°F60°F68%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN7N7NE9NE8NE5NE5NE6NE5E5E6E5E7E8E9E8
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2 days agoNW17
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N13N9N10N7N6N7N7N8N6N8--N9NE8NE6NE7

Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:40 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:54 AM CST     -0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:16 PM CST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:02 PM CST     1.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.70.40.2-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.100.20.30.50.60.80.911

Tide / Current Tables for Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Parker
Click for Map
Wed -- 06:37 AM CST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:39 AM CST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:18 AM CST     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:11 PM CST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:15 PM CST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.51.41.310.80.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.200.20.40.60.811.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.