Tuesday, November20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lower Grand Lagoon, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:11AMSunset 4:45PM Tuesday November 20, 2018 2:12 PM CST (20:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:23PMMoonset 4:23AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Mexico Beach To Apalachicola Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Mexico Beach To Okaloosa Walton County Line Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Mexico Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 304 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Tonight..North winds 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Wednesday and Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thursday night..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Friday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 20 knots early in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters choppy. Showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..West winds 10 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters a light chop. Isolated Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 304 Pm Est Tue Nov 20 2018
Synopsis.. Winds will remain at or below 15 knots through Thursday, then will begin to increase to cautionary levels Thursday night ahead of our next front. Although winds and seas will lower Saturday, advisory conditions are possible again early next week after a second frontal passage Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lower Grand Lagoon, FL
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location: 30.11, -85.74     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 201950
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
250 pm est Tue nov 20 2018

Near term [through tonight]
The base of an upper trough continues to move through alabama this
afternoon and will eventually swing east of the region overnight. A
prefrontal trough and associated rain moved through this morning
with winds now all around to the northwest. The main cold front
though is probably just now moving through tallahassee with temps in
the lower 60s to the northwest and lower 70s to the southeast. Much
drier air, with dew points in the 30s, is seen behind the front and
moving this way. The clouds associated with it have made only slight
progress this far south and guidance is continuing to scatter them
out as they move south which will leave clear skies tonight. Low
temps tonight will ultimately depend on how low the dew points can
drop so right now lows are forecast to drop to the upper 30s in se
al to upper 40s in the big bend. Updates may be needed tonight to
account for the timing of the cooler and drier air.

Short term [Wednesday through Thursday night]
A broad upper level trough will remain in place over the eastern
conus through Thursday night. Wednesday night into Thursday, an
upper level +pv anomaly will move from the southern plains into the
southeastern u.S. Thursday. The area of enhanced divergence aloft
will be mostly over the northern gulf waters, so chances for rain
over land remain around 10% or less through the short term period.

Highs will be in the 60s. Lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s
Wednesday night, mid 40s to low 50s Thursday night.

Long term [Friday through Tuesday]
A stronger +pv anomaly will into the southern plains on Friday,
developing a cold front at the surface out ahead of it and an area
of low pressure along it in the northern gulf. This feature will
swing eastward quickly, with the front and gulf low moving into our
area late Friday night early Saturday. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. A third strong +pv
anomaly will move into the plains Saturday night, developing a low
over the mid-mississippi valley. This circulation will bring the
return of chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday and
Sunday night and swing off the mid-atlantic coast Monday night.

Highs will be mostly in the mid 60s to mid 70s through Monday,
dropping to the mid 50s to mid 60s Tuesday. Lows will be in the 50s
through Sunday night, dropping into the 40s Monday night and upper
30s to mid 40s Tuesday night.

Aviation
[through 18z Wednesday]
a surface trough has moved through with all terminals showing
northwest winds with the cooler and drier air still moving in. Skies
are generally clear outside a deck of mid level clouds impacting dhn
and ecp. The clouds should dissipate before reaching aby, tlh and
vld. Otherwise, clear skies and light winds tonight give way to
light northwest flow and a few upper level clouds on Wednesday.

Marine
Winds will remain at or below 15 knots through Thursday, then will
begin to increase to cautionary levels Thursday night ahead of our
next front. Although winds and seas will lower Saturday, advisory
conditions are possible again early next week after a second
frontal passage Sunday night.

Fire weather
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not forecast.

Hydrology
Most local rivers are steady or falling at this time. The
apalachicola river remains in minor flood stage and has crested near
blountstown but continues to rise further downstream. Many local
rivers remain in action stage. Two quick frontal passages are in the
forecast for the next week, producing a total of around one to three
inches across the area. These totals are not expected to cause any
flooding issues.

Spotter information statement
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @nwstallahassee.

Preliminary point temps pops
Tallahassee 43 65 39 64 47 0 0 0 0 0
panama city 45 64 42 62 50 0 0 0 0 0
dothan 39 61 37 61 44 0 0 0 0 0
albany 40 63 40 62 44 0 0 0 0 0
valdosta 43 65 41 65 47 0 0 0 0 10
cross city 48 70 42 69 52 0 0 0 10 10
apalachicola 47 66 44 64 51 0 0 0 0 10

Tae watches warnings advisories
Fl... None.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Ln
short term... Nguyen
long term... Nguyen
aviation... Ln
marine... Nguyen
fire weather... Barry
hydrology... Nguyen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 5 mi43 min NW 9.9 G 13 68°F 64°F1019.3 hPa
PCBF1 10 mi43 min N 11 G 14 69°F 69°F1019.4 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 48 mi43 min NNW 4.1 G 9.9 73°F 62°F1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL8 mi78 minNNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds71°F52°F51%1019.5 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL17 mi20 minNNW 1010.00 miOvercast68°F54°F61%1020.4 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW4NW3N2NW2W3SE1CalmCalmCalmNE1NW2CalmNW1NW1CalmSE1Calm3NW7NW7NW9NW6NW10
1 day agoW7W5N3NW2NW3CalmCalmCalmNE1CalmN2N2E1E2NE2E1NE3NE5NE5N4N3NE1S2W5
2 days agoW5W5NW2CalmCalmCalmCalmSE2NE2CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE2NE34E34NE3S3W8

Tide / Current Tables for Channel entrance, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Channel entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:23 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:26 AM CST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:12 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 03:23 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:44 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:47 PM CST     1.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.40.40.30.30.40.40.40.50.50.60.60.70.70.80.9111.11.1110.8

Tide / Current Tables for Parker, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Parker
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:22 AM CST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:12 AM CST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:50 AM CST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:22 PM CST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:43 PM CST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:13 PM CST     1.30 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.90.80.60.50.50.40.40.40.50.50.60.60.70.70.80.911.11.21.31.31.31.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.