Monday, May22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Callaway, FL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 7:35PM Monday May 22, 2017 12:37 PM CDT (17:37 UTC) Moonrise 3:32AMMoonset 4:11PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ750 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee River To Apalachicola Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Out 20 Nm- Waters From Apalachicola To Destin Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Suwannee River To Apalachicola Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 921 Am Edt Mon May 22 2017
Rest of today..Southwest winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters smooth to a light chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Southwest winds around 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds around 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Dominant period 5 seconds. Protected waters choppy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet with occasional seas up to 9 feet. Dominant period 6 seconds. Protected waters rough. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Wednesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas subsiding to 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet after midnight. Protected waters choppy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Thursday..West winds around 15 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with occasional seas up to 6 feet. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday night..West winds around 10 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Protected waters smooth.
GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Destin Out To 60 Nm 921 Am Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis..Modest southerly winds will increase quickly on Tuesday to cautionary levels. A period of advisory levels winds and seas is possible late Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a frontal system that will move through the waters on Wednesday evening. Winds will shift to west-northwesterly early Thursday morning and decrease as high pressure begins to build over the waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Callaway, FL
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location: 30.12, -85.55     debug


Area Discussion for -
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Fxus62 ktae 221711
afdtae
area forecast discussion
national weather service tallahassee fl
111 pm edt Mon may 22 2017

Aviation [through 18z Tuesday]
Showers and isolated thunderstorms will be scattered about the
region this afternoon. Tlh and vld have the best chance of being
directly impacted. Late tonight, showers and thunderstorms will
start to spread inland from the gulf as well as move in from the
west, with ecp and dhn likely impacted before 12z with at least
MVFR ceilings and tsra. Through tomorrow, a line of heavy rain
will move slowly through the region resulting in lifr/ifr
restrictions.

Prev discussion [918 am edt]
Near term [through today]
Generally speaking, the upper-level pattern across the CONUS this
morning is characterized by a large, closed low over the great
lakes region, with a broad trough covering much of the conus. More
specifically, several shortwaves exist within and around this
trough. The first, associated with the core of the closed low is
moving east through northern michigan this morning while a second
moving south through montana will be responsible for amplifying
the low/conus trough over the next couple of days. Further south,
a couple of southern stream shortwaves exist across the southern
tier of the country, with one moving through central tx and
another entering the southwest. At the surface, an 11z subjective
analysis depicted a frontal boundary draped northeast to southwest
down the spine of the appalachians into central al. The front
then bends back through central ms and la, then down the tx gulf
coast.

Locally, the surface and upper level patterns remain somewhat
benign today. Expect a very weak seabreeze circulation to develop
due to the weak gradient between land and water. A few showers are
developing along the panhandle coast which is typical for this sw
flow regime. So, expect convection to be isolated to scattered in
nature due to the limited forcing this morning. More widespread
coverage is expected later in the afternoon across al and ga where
outflow from the scattered convection earlier could result in
better coverage. With a typical low-shear summertime environment,
we'd need some of the other wet-microburst parameters to be
favorable in order to support severe thunderstorm development. At
this time indications are that these indices will be marginal at
best. Thus, with afternoon convection expect a low-end chance for
severe, with sub-severe downbursts more likely. The SPC currently
has the NW half of the tri-state region in a marginal risk for
severe storms and this is to account for convection forecast to
move into the region overnight that develops along the front to
our west this afternoon. More favorable shear will exist tonight
as the tx shortwave approaches, though instability will be waning.

The main threat will be damaging winds with a very low-end tornado
or hail threat.

Short term [tonight through Wednesday]
The initial shortwave will move north of the region on Monday
evening and model guidance suggests this will keep the bulk of the
heaviest precip across central al/middle ga on Monday night.

However, by early Tuesday morning, a stalled frontal zone near the
gulf coast will serve as a focus for shower and thunderstorm
development overnight. What complicates the forecast from this
point forward is how this convection affects atmospheric
destabilization on Tuesday across the region. Some guidance
suggests that convection early Tuesday morning will be focused
across the western half of the region, which implies that the
eastern half of the region, particularly along and east of a line
from tallahassee to valdosta will get at least some heating
through early afternoon, enhancing instability and leading to an
increased severe weather threat in the afternoon hours. For now,
the region is outlined in a marginal risk of severe weather, but
as confidence increases regarding the zone of best heating, it
would not be surprising to see an increase to a slight risk.

Deep layer forcing will begin to increase on Tuesday night and
into Wednesday as the main upper trough begins to drop into the
mid south. Convection should become more widespread on Tuesday
night through Wednesday as deep layer forcing increases. However,
ongoing convection is likely to limit overall destabilization
which should limit the potential for a more robust severe threat,
despite very favorable kinematics for late may.

In addition to the concern for severe weather, there is the
potential for some heavy rainfall over the next couple of days.

This threat will be discussed in more detail in the hydrology
section further down in this discussion.

Long term [Wednesday night through Monday]
The main upper trough will swing through the region on Wednesday
evening, abruptly ending the precipitation after 06z Thursday.

Much drier air will begin to arrive on Thursday and generally
remain in place through Saturday. The big story will be the
temporary respite from the humidity as dewpoints in the mid 50s
return for Friday and afternoon high temperatures struggle to hit
80 degrees.

A return to a more typical pattern is expected by Sunday as high
pressure builds across the florida peninsula and southerly winds
bring moisture back to the region. Late in the period, model
guidance has a frontal zone stalling near or over the region on
Monday into Tuesday. This boundary would be a focus for showers
and storms, and accordingly rain chances increase at the end of
the forecast cycle.

Marine
Modest southerly winds will increase quickly on Tuesday to
cautionary levels. A period of advisory levels winds and seas is
possible late Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a frontal system
that will move through the waters on Wednesday evening. Winds will
shift to west-northwesterly early Thursday morning and decrease as
high pressure begins to build over the waters.

Fire weather
Low dispersions are expected today and tomorrow, especially in
southeast alabama, due to light winds and relatively low mixing
heights. Humid conditions will prevail for the next several days,
preventing us from reaching critical fire weather thresholds.

Hydrology
Recent rains over the last 48 hours have deposited the heaviest
amounts (3-4 inches) in the upper choctawhatchee river basin in
southeast alabama. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts have been lighter
generally 2 inches or less. Though there is some concern for minor
flooding from heavy rainfall on Monday and Monday evening across
the western half of the region, the greater threat for heavy
rainfall is on Tuesday. At this point in time, most of the
guidance suggests that rainfall over the next 48 hours should
generally be in the 3-4 inch range with isolated heavier totals up
to 6 inches. While this could cause some minor flooding issues,
slightly higher amounts would be needed to cause a greater flood
threat. Thus, will not be issuing a flash flood watch on this
cycle, though as confidence increases in the placement of
Tuesday's convection a watch may be needed.

The threat for river flooding from this system remains quite low,
given that many rivers were at significantly low levels from the
ongoing drought. Only the choctawhatchee river, which has received
modest rains in the upper portion of the basin is vulnerable to
minor flooding should heavier amounts on Tuesday materialize.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Tallahassee 69 81 68 80 61 / 30 70 70 70 30
panama city 74 81 71 80 65 / 50 70 70 70 20
dothan 69 78 67 80 58 / 80 80 70 70 20
albany 71 78 67 79 59 / 60 80 70 70 30
valdosta 70 81 67 79 61 / 20 60 70 70 40
cross city 71 83 71 81 65 / 10 40 70 70 50
apalachicola 74 80 72 82 65 / 50 60 70 70 30

Tae watches/warnings/advisories
Fl... High rip current risk until 8 pm edt /7 pm cdt/ this evening for
coastal bay-coastal gulf-south walton.

Ga... None.

Al... None.

Gm... None.

Near term... Harrigan
short term... Godsey
long term... Godsey
aviation... Harrigan
marine... Godsey
fire weather... Moore
hydrology... Godsey


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PACF1 - 8729108 - Panama City, FL 7 mi61 min S 8.9 G 9.9 80°F 80°F1016.9 hPa
PCBF1 19 mi61 min S 6 G 7 78°F 80°F1017.2 hPa
APCF1 - 8728690 - Apalachicola, FL 41 mi61 min S 8 G 8.9 79°F 81°F1017 hPa
APXF1 - Apalachicola Reserve, FL 42 mi112 min SSW 5.1 80°F 74°F

Wind History for Panama City, FL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tyndall Air Force Base, FL4 mi1.7 hrsS 910.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F71°F72%1017.2 hPa
Panama City - Northwest Florida Beaches International Airport, FL21 mi44 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy81°F70°F69%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from PAM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3S4SE8S9SW7SW6NW4CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4S9S10
1 day agoS16
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S14SE14SE14SE12S14S9S9S7N19
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NE9CalmCalmS11S13SE14NE4NE4N4NE4
2 days agoS9S10S11SE11E10E8--E4----CalmSE4E7E3E6SE7E3E3E5SE12SE13S16S16
G20
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G22

Tide / Current Tables for Laird Bayou, East Bay, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Laird Bayou
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:48 AM CDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:31 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:44 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:35 AM CDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:11 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:03 PM CDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.60.70.70.70.80.9111.11.11.110.90.70.60.50.40.30.30.30.40.4

Tide / Current Tables for Panama City, St. Andrew Bay, Florida
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Panama City
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:24 AM CDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:31 AM CDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:45 AM CDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:26 AM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:11 PM CDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:39 PM CDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:33 PM CDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.60.60.60.60.70.80.80.90.90.90.90.80.70.60.50.40.30.30.30.30.30.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northwest Florida
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.