Friday, December15, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waveland, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:02PM Friday December 15, 2017 8:10 AM CST (14:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:19AMMoonset 4:31PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 325 Am Cst Fri Dec 15 2017
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely until late afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers after midnight.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning. Chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Showers in the afternoon.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers likely and isolated Thunderstorms.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and isolated Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 325 Am Cst Fri Dec 15 2017
Synopsis..A cold front will move through the coastal waters tonight and stall offshore later today before returning inland as a warm front late Saturday. Another cold front will move through Sunday and will stall near the coast until another reinforcing front moves through the gulf late Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waveland, MS
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location: 30.13, -89.43     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 151335
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
735 am cst Fri dec 15 2017

Sounding discussion
Routine flight terminated about 10 miles east of mobile at a
height of 110,000 feet, or 20.8 miles above the surface.

Airmass has moistened since last night with a precipitable water
value of 0.85 inches, but most of the moisture is located above
700 mb, with a saturated or nearly saturated layer between 650 and
350 mb. This fits with the solid high and mid level cloud cover
observed at launch. Frontal inversion looked to be just below 925
mb at launch time. Freezing level this morning is at 9,600 feet
with the -20c level at 22,700 feet.

Northerly winds at the surface up to just below 925 mb, with
westerly winds for the remainder of the flight. MAX wind of 121
knots was reported near 34,000 feet. 35

Prev discussion issued 357 am cst Fri dec 15 2017
short term...

an upper trough will be swinging across the mississippi valley
this morning. At the surface, observations show a cold front
currently moving southward across the cwa. At the same time, the
sub-tropical jet is carrying pacific moisture across mexico to the
northern gulf coast. Showers will develop over portions of the
forecast area as a result of this overrunning moisture. The bulk
of rain will be limited to areas from new orleans southward.

Exactly how far north the showers actually reach is quite
challenging. Thinking it will be around i-12. In terms of
temperatures, the combination of overcast skies and cold air
advection will likely keep temps fairly steady throughout the day.

These showers will fade and shift south as the front continues
towards the central gulf of mexico. Decreasing clouds and colder dry
air mass moving in will bring down nighttime lows quite a bit.

Expecting mid 30s for most locations with a few in mississippi
touching the freezing mark Saturday morning.

Long term...

models still show a cutoff low that is currently stuck over the baja
of california getting pickup by a pacific trough and racing
northeast to the mid mississippi valley this weekend. In response
to this, a surface low and appendant frontal boundary will
develop over east texas, with the front stalling over the cwa
Sunday. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to
develop as frontogenesis takes place. While rain will begin from
west to east Saturday night, most of the higher pops shouldn't
come in until Sunday.

The boundary will likely remain stalled along the northern gulf
coast through Tuesday as troughing is maintained west of the cwa.

This will lead to bouts of rain moving across the area rather than
constant downpours. Confidence in the forecast is normal through
this period and below normal thereafter. The main difference is the
the GFS clears out moisture Wed and Thu with the aforementioned
pacific trough, while the ECMWF is slower with the progression of
this trough. Didn't make too many changes from previous forecast
and went with a blend of solutions for pops.

Meffer
aviation...VFR conditions will generally prevail through the taf
forecast period with primarily mid and high level clouds expected. A
cold front will push south across the forecast area overnight early
Friday morning. Some patchy fog may occur prior to the frontal
passage at kgpt and khum. Otherwise, a few showers may impact the
more coastal louisiana TAF sites Friday morning. 11
marine... Cold front quickly moving through and winds will pick up
later this morning. Winds over all of the open waters will increase
to at least 15-20 kts but the outer waters south and west of the
delta will likely be closer to 20 kts with higher gusts. With that
will hoist an scy for those waters and then an scs for the rest of
the open waters just for today. High pressure will quickly slide
towards the southeastern CONUS and winds will relax some Friday
night and begin to shift out of the east through Saturday. By
Saturday evening and into Sunday with high pressure still off to the
east and lower pressure developing along the tx coast winds will
begin to slowly increase and become onshore. As the low pulls away
to the northeast the front will become stationary over the area with
winds relaxing again. Cab

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: small craft advisory
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national
significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 49 31 55 49 10 0 10 20
btr 50 35 57 53 20 0 10 20
asd 52 35 57 53 40 10 10 20
msy 53 40 58 55 60 10 10 20
gpt 52 37 56 54 30 10 10 20
pql 52 31 57 51 20 10 10 10

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for gmz570-572-
575.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 6 pm cst this evening for gmz572-575.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 15 mi41 min N 12 G 14 47°F 52°F1020.4 hPa
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 18 mi81 min NNW 1.9 G 5.8 46°F 1020.1 hPa (+2.0)40°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi41 min N 16 G 19 49°F 55°F1020.4 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 37 mi41 min NE 12 G 14 50°F 55°F1020.6 hPa
CARL1 40 mi41 min 51°F
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 48 mi41 min N 9.9 G 11 47°F 1020 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 49 mi41 min 53°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 49 mi41 min N 14 G 16 49°F 1020.7 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bay St. Louis, Stennis International Airport, MS16 mi21 minN 87.00 miOvercast46°F39°F76%1021.3 hPa

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmNW6CalmS5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5N8N8N8N8
1 day agoCalmSE6S9SW866S8SW4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN10
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NW8CalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:19 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:47 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:02 AM CST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:31 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:00 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 10:33 PM CST     0.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.70.50.40.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-0.1-000.10.20.30.40.50.60.80.80.90.9

Tide / Current Tables for Grand Pass, Louisiana
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Grand Pass
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:18 AM CST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:45 AM CST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:20 AM CST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:30 PM CST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:58 PM CST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:36 PM CST     1.32 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.80.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.2-0.100.20.30.40.60.70.911.21.31.31.31.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.