Thursday, August24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waveland, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 7:31PM Thursday August 24, 2017 5:30 AM CDT (10:30 UTC) Moonrise 9:18AMMoonset 9:37PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ534 Lake Borgne- 428 Am Cdt Thu Aug 24 2017
Today..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening.
Friday..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 428 Am Cdt Thu Aug 24 2017
Synopsis..Tropical storm harvey was located in the central gulf of mexico, moving erratically slow towards the northwest. SWells generated from the storm will be advancing into the north gulf waters throughout today and Friday, bringing choppy to rough conditions, particularly in the outer coastal waters. Winds and seas will become dependent on eventual track and strength of harvey through Monday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waveland, MS
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location: 30.13, -89.43     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 240927
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
427 am cdt Thu aug 24 2017

Short term
Tropical storm harvey re-developed last night over the southern
gulf of mexico. This storm will not only impact the texas coast
this week into this weekend... It could also have an impact across
much of the southern united states. More on harvey later, but
today we can expect showers and storms to develop this afternoon.

There has been some nocturnal development over lake pontchartrain
and along the coast. Some that has already weakened but thinking
that convection could develop early over the southeastern portions
of the forecast area. Overnight 6z sounding showed pw value of
2.33 inches and a convective temperature of 88 degrees... I am
thinking that once the Sun comes up and we get a little heating
showers and storms will start developing. With that type of pw,
showers and storms will be efficient rain producers and locally
heavy rainfall or some minor flooding is possible today as we
still have a frontal boundary stalled over the forecast area. This
will serve as a focus for development as well. Have kept pops the
same with a solid 60 percent over portions of the forecast
area... And have expedited the upward trend in pops this morning.

Temperatures should reach near 90 today before convection starts.

By tomorrow, some weak subsidence on the outer periphery of a
tropical storm harvey and an northward push of the low level
boundary back toward central mississippi and north louisiana
should result in lower pop values for much of the forecast area.

Long term
Going into the weekend the big story will be tropical storm
harvey. Latest advisory from the national hurricane center has
harvey becoming a hurricane before landfall. Harvey then stalls
across southeast texas for the majority of the weekend. All
guidance still suggest this solution and even has it slow to move
east into our forecast area. We may not see the heaviest solid
area of rainfall until Tuesday or Wednesday across our forecast
area. This is because harvey gets caught between two ridges
stalling it over texas for a few days... And it has to wait for a
trough to dig in over the eastern united states to pull it out
across the country. Have maintained the forecast for the most
part. Have adjusted temperatures in the long range and adjusted
pops in the long range to show the trends in guidance. Just a note
here... Just because we possibly won't see the heaviest rain from
this complicated pattern until early next week does not mean that
heavy rainfall is not possible this weekend with any shower or
storm. There will be plenty of moisture around the area with a
stalled boundary in place over the area. Do not let your guard
down. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible each and every day
starting Saturday and possibly lasting through Wednesday. There is
a large degree of uncertainty in the forecast for next week, so
the forecast could change dramatically over the next few days

Aviation
Better chance at areal convective coverage to include tempo groups
for mainly afternoon convection this afternoon and evening. Will
have to closely monitor banding behavior on outer bands of harvey,
which may move into khum and possibly into the new orleans metro
area overnight into Friday morning. Otherwise,VFR conditions
expected outside convection. Gust potential appears low,
generally 10-15 kts from weak outflow gusts features. 24 rr

Marine
Gradual increase in seas with swell generation from harvey through
the weekend. Periods should attain 8-10 seconds Friday then slowly
erode into 6 seconds for the weekend. This will support a SW ground
swell that will be intersecting a SE to E wind wave for steep sea
state for much of the weekend into early next week. 24 rr

Sounding discussion
06z special release sounding in support of tropical storm harvey
modeling went off without a hitch. Very light winds throughout kept
much of the flight within 2 miles of the station but managed to
terminate over lake pontchartrain about 4 miles SE of the mouth of
the tchefuncte river, about 18 miles downrange at an altitude of
18.9 miles at the 11.3 mb level. Very soggy air mass with a
precipitable water now up to 2.33 inches, which can see efficient
rain rates today, particularly with slow-moving nature of any storms
that do form. Showalter is an unstable -3 in the middle of the night
with a lifted index of -7. Chap shows a 50% pop with rain potential
in the 5.72-7.09 inch range. Average winds throughout the column was
7 knots. 24 rr

Decision support
Dss code... Blue.

Deployed... None.

Activation... Special upper air releases at 06z 18z.

Activities... Monitoring tropical storm harvey..

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action
blue = long fused watch warning advisory in effect or high
visibility event
yellow = heightened impacts with short fused
watch warning advisory issuances; radar support
orange = high impacts - slight to moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; hazmat or other large episodes
red = full engagement for moderate tonight risk svr
and or direct tropical threats; events of national
significance

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 89 71 87 73 60 60 30 30
btr 89 74 87 75 60 60 30 40
asd 90 76 90 77 50 50 30 30
msy 90 79 89 79 50 50 30 30
gpt 90 77 89 78 50 50 30 30
pql 91 76 91 77 50 50 20 30

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 15 mi43 min ENE 6 G 7 78°F 86°F1012 hPa
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 18 mi41 min Calm G 1.9 75°F 1012.3 hPa (-0.0)73°F
SHBL1 - 8761305 - Shell Beach, LA 22 mi49 min NNE 8.9 G 9.9 83°F 89°F1011.8 hPa
NWCL1 - 8761927 - New Canal, LA 37 mi43 min NE 8 G 8.9 83°F 88°F1011.5 hPa
CARL1 40 mi43 min 84°F
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 48 mi43 min N 4.1 G 5.1 78°F 1011.6 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 49 mi49 min 84°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 49 mi43 min NE 7 G 8 81°F 1012.4 hPa

Wind History for Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from ASD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN3E3Calm53NE4N5Calm3S8SW6S7S3CalmNE5CalmN6NE4CalmN4N3NE3
1 day agoN3N3N3N4N5NE7NE7E4E5CalmE5E3S3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmN4CalmCalm
2 days agoN4CalmCalmN3NE5E5E5SE4S3SE7SE5SE94CalmNE3N3N4NE4NE3N3CalmN3CalmN3

Tide / Current Tables for Long Point, Lake Borgne, Louisiana
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Long Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:05 AM CDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:30 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:18 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:35 PM CDT     0.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:29 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:37 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:19 PM CDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.50.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.70.70.80.80.90.90.90.90.80.80.70.70.70.7

Tide / Current Tables for Grand Pass, Louisiana
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Grand Pass
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:29 AM CDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:16 AM CDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:39 PM CDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:28 PM CDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:35 PM CDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:54 PM CDT     0.84 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.70.80.80.80.90.90.90.9111.11.11.21.21.21.21.1110.90.80.80.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.