Thursday, January17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Park Estates, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 5:18PM Thursday January 17, 2019 10:52 AM CST (16:52 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 4:03AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 905 Am Cst Thu Jan 17 2019
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers through the day.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening. Widespread fog after midnight.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Dominant period 4 seconds. Widespread fog early in the morning.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..West winds 25 to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers through the day. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 25 to 30 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers in the evening.
Sunday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of sprinkles.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 905 Am Cst Thu Jan 17 2019
Synopsis..High pressure will shift toward the eastern gulf today. A low pressure system and strong cold front is then expected to impact the coastal waters over the weekend. High pressure will then settle in for early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Park Estates, MS
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location: 30.15, -88.72     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 171328
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
728 am cst Thu jan 17 2019

Sounding discussion
This morning's sounding was successful with no issues noted.

Moisture has been slowly advecting into the area and pw is
slightly elevated compared to the climatology moving average for
the day. Most of the clouds forming should be low level clouds and
some high level. There is no instability so any precip forming
should be just rain showers. The winds at the sfc-1km are
south southwesterly and light then turn to westerly and increases
to a peak of 105 knots. -bl

Prev discussion issued 402 am cst Thu jan 17 2019
short term...

no major changes to the forecast this morning as a few showers
move their way into the forecast area this morning. These showers
should increase throughout the day as a system moves north of the
area. The trailing front will move into the area this afternoon.

There will not be a big temperature change with this boundary as
it comes through. Tonight expect dense fog to develop as the warm
air moves over the cool waters of the tidal lakes and sounds.

There may be a dense fog advisory issued this afternoon... Will
allow the next set of data to come in before making any decisions
on the advisory.

Long term...

going into the weekend and next week the pattern is still fairly
active. The main concerns are convective impacts with strong
frontal passage Saturday, followed by very cold air advection into
the region Sunday. This particular setup is a low CAPE high shear
situation. The storm prediction center has highlighted the entire
forecast area in a marginal risk for severe weather on Saturday as
the cold front moves through. Models are in better agreement with
time this morning placing the heaviest rainfall in the forecast
area early Saturday morning through noon on Saturday. This threat
does not appear to be major but a non zero threat of severe
weather is present. Strong straight line winds seems to be the
main severe threat if any were to crop up with this front. After
the front cold air advection of arctic air ensues and continues
through all of Sunday. This arctic air will only be a glancing
blow and short lived as we warm up quickly on Monday. There will
be freezing temps on the northshore and across SW mississippi
Sunday night into Monday... And mid 30s more than likely south of
lake pontchartrain. The high moderates and shifts east allowing
return flow by Monday afternoon in advance of the next system to
move through the area middle of next week.

Aviation...

ceilings will remain ovc070+ during the morning hours and slowly
lower to ovc040 by afternoon today. There is a slim chance of
-ra occurring at a few terminals but is too little to include in taf
set and should not cause more than 4sm vis reduction. There may be
some low level decks of bkn003 moving in tonight into Friday morning
with stronger vis restrictions. May be able to tempo a few of these
conditions for a few terminals that would have the best chance of
observing this.

Marine...

weak return flow is just beginning to get started today. These winds
will rise to around 15-20kt by the weekend. A cold front moves
through the area over the weekend bringing the possibility of gales
to the northern gulf after its passage Saturday. These winds should
ease by Sunday afternoon as the next front will begin to bring
return flow back to the area by Monday. The next front may move
through the northern gulf Wednesday morning with strong northerly
winds again.

Decision support...

dss code: green
deployed: none
activation: none
activities: none
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe or
excessive rain.

Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and or
excessive rain; direct tropical threats; events of national
significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 63 53 69 58 50 30 0 60
btr 67 54 70 59 50 10 0 60
asd 66 55 70 58 50 20 0 30
msy 67 56 71 60 50 10 0 20
gpt 63 55 67 58 50 30 0 20
pql 65 55 70 58 40 30 0 20

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... None.

Gm... None.

Ms... None.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 12 mi53 min SE 6 G 7 55°F 1025.9 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 17 mi59 min 56°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 21 mi128 min ESE 5.1 51°F 1025 hPa48°F
GBRM6 25 mi113 min 54°F
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi83 min SE 7 55°F 1025.4 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 33 mi53 min ENE 4.1 52°F 1025.1 hPa (+1.4)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 34 mi53 min SE 4.1 G 4.1 52°F 51°F1025.1 hPa (+1.9)
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 35 mi53 min SE 5.1 G 7 55°F 1025.1 hPa (+0.9)51°F
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 37 mi53 min SE 9.9 G 11 58°F 1025.1 hPa (+1.0)
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 42 mi83 min ESE 5.1 52°F 1024.4 hPa
MBPA1 43 mi53 min 53°F 48°F

Wind History for Petit Bois Island, Port of Pascagoula, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS22 mi57 minS 410.00 miOvercast54°F47°F78%1025.4 hPa
Moss Point - Trent Lott International Airport, MS24 mi60 minN 010.00 miOvercast56°F46°F72%1025.2 hPa

Wind History from BIX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW5S6S7S7SW7SW6SW4SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E3CalmSE4S3S4
1 day agoNE6N5N5N8N5NW3NW4N3N4N4N4N3NW3N3CalmNE4NE3N5NE3CalmN4NE4NE3NE3
2 days agoN7N8N9N10N7N11N7N6N6N5N9NE7N10N7N6N7NE10N9N7N5N7N6NE4NE6

Tide / Current Tables for Horn Island, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Chandeleur Light, Louisiana
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Chandeleur Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:03 AM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:41 AM CST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:51 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 02:04 PM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:19 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:04 PM CST     1.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.3-0.2-0.100.20.40.50.70.80.91110.90.80.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.