Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Park Estates, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 8:01PM Saturday June 24, 2017 5:30 AM CDT (10:30 UTC) Moonrise 6:33AMMoonset 8:40PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound-lake Borgne- 351 Am Cdt Sat Jun 24 2017
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Sunday night..Northeast winds 15 knots. Waves 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..East winds 15 knots. Waves 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 knots. Waves 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 351 Am Cdt Sat Jun 24 2017
Synopsis..A cold front should move to near the coast early next week before stalling then moving north and weakening by late Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Park Estates, MS
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location: 30.15, -88.72     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 240837
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
337 am cdt Sat jun 24 2017

Short term
There is good news and bad news. The good, is a cold front on the
way with drier air and much lower chances of sh ts. The bad news
is that we will see more rainfall before getting there.

Three distinctive boundaries will come into play for the area
today through Monday. The first two are currently over the area.

The break down of each one will be discussed here.

1) the first most southerly boundary is an old band left over
from cindy which has now oriented itself ne-sw stretching from
southern alabama through southeast louisiana and into the gulf.

This boundary has basically shifted slightly northwest then
pivoted and move back into the area over the last couple of days
before stalling where it is presently located. This convergence
zone will continue to promote sh TS development today and tonight.

2) the second is an outflow boundary moving southward through
southern miss this morning. This boundary was promoted by a sfc
trough axis over northern alamama, central miss, through northern
louisiana. This boundary will begin to slow this morning and
collide with the first where they will become one and stall where
the first is located now. Both of these boundaries will simply
reinforce each other and should be capable of producing quite a
bit of activity this morning through the day and well into the
evening.

3) the third of these boundaries will be the actual cold front. We
will see this front move and put the breaks on just north of the
area by this evening. Lower dp temps will then begin to filter
into the area during the day Sunday with the best push starting
Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours. This air will be a
huge improvement and will not only be extremely noticeable but
welcomed compared to the conditions we have been tolerating so
far. By Monday morning, areas north of lake pontchartrain should
be observing dp temps in the mid 50s while low to mid 60s dp temps
may filter into the south shore areas. This will all but shut the
spicket off for many areas as well for Monday and Tuesday.

The paragraph identified as #2 will be one of the variables
responsible for the flash flood watch that will be posted for
today through midnight tonight. This may be extended into Sunday
along and south of the interstate 10 12 corridor as the front will
be slow to move through the area.

Showers and thunderstorms that fire along and flanking this #2
boundary axis will be very efficient rain producers today.

Normally, most areas would be able to handle this rainfall if it
had been dry. But grounds remain saturated and any further heavy
rainfall could become a flooding issue. One more complication to
add to the mix will be storm motion opposing backbulding vectors.

These vectors will work together to cause sh TS to look as if many
of these storms are not moving at all once they develop. With all
these variables considered, a flash flood watch will be issued
for the entire area. Although the area that should see the least
rainfall amounts will be the southern most portion of the
southeast louisiana coastal parishes. The northern portion of
these parishes will still have just as much opportunity at high
precip accumulations as all other locations. Accumulations are
expected to be 2" to 3" within these relatively stationary cells
through midnight, with some isolated locations possibly seeing
higher amounts with the most vigorous cells.

Coastal flooding is not expected to be an issue with this event.

But tide levels will remain very high with only the lowest
coastal or beach roads having water up to the roadway or slightly
over during high tide times.

Long term
There are some indications that the front will stall near or at
the coast. This would prevent the dry air from working into the
most southern locations of louisiana. For this package, we will be
optomistic and filter the dry air into these locations with
reduced but not alleviated rain chances for Monday and Tuesday.

The dry air does not last long and will move back to the north
allowing the deep moisture back with a vengence Wednesday. This
will bring the rain chances back to the area as well through the
remainder of the week.

Aviation
Conditions variable between MVFR andVFR as clouds in the fl015-025
layer range from scattered to overcast early this morning. One band
of shra tsra near the gpt and asd terminal areas at 08z with a more
extensive band to the northwest of that, affecting btr, mcb and hdc
terminals. Lightning has diminished quite a bit over the last hour.

These bands of convection are likely to merge as they weaken over
the next couple of hours. This is likely to leave an effective
boundary across the area to serve as a focus for convective
redevelopment this afternoon, and will carry tempo tsra for several
hours at most terminals this afternoon. Likely to be a period ofVFR
conditions this evening before MVFR ceilings return after 06z. 35

Marine
Winds are expected to remain light through Sunday before becoming
northeast around 15kt late Sunday night into Monday as a cold
front should edge into the northern gulf coast. These higher wind
speeds should be restricted to areas north of the miss river
mouth. The front will stall near the coast in a port fourchon to
southwest pass orientation keeping sh TS chances for most coastal
waters through the period.

Decision support
Dss code: blue.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: monitoring hydro convective trends
decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps pops
Mcb 84 72 83 66 80 50 50 20
btr 86 73 84 69 80 50 70 40
asd 88 74 85 70 70 50 60 50
msy 87 75 84 73 70 50 70 50
gpt 85 74 84 71 70 50 60 50
pql 87 73 84 69 70 50 60 50

Lix watches warnings advisories
La... Flash flood watch through this evening for laz034>037-039-040-
046>050-056>072.

Gm... None.

Ms... Flash flood watch through this evening for msz068>071-077-
080>082.

Gm... None.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42067 - USM3M02 8 mi111 min SSW 14 G 16 81°F 3 ft1014.9 hPa78°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 12 mi43 min SW 13 G 15 80°F 1015.8 hPa
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 16 mi43 min SW 5.1 G 8.9 80°F 1015 hPa
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 17 mi43 min WSW 8.9 G 11 81°F 1014.7 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 17 mi49 min 78°F
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 18 mi43 min 82°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 21 mi106 min SW 9.9 81°F 1016 hPa78°F
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi61 min SW 15 81°F 1014.9 hPa
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 33 mi61 min SW 15 81°F 1015.2 hPa
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 34 mi49 min W 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 80°F1015.2 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 35 mi31 min SW 11 G 15 81°F 1015 hPa (-0.0)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 37 mi43 min SW 15 G 16 81°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 42 mi61 min SSW 15 81°F 1015.2 hPa
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 49 mi43 min S 7 G 11 75°F 81°F1016.1 hPa
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 49 mi41 min SW 1.9 G 3.9 80°F 1015.8 hPa (-0.0)78°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 49 mi61 min SSW 13 82°F 1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Petit Bois Island, Port of Pascagoula, MS
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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S16
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1 day
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SE22
G29
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G31
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SE21
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G26
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SE18
G24
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E20
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G33
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G30
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G30
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S24
G31

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS22 mi33 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F74°F95%1015.5 hPa
Moss Point - Trent Lott International Airport, MS24 mi38 minN 08.00 miLight Rain75°F73°F94%1015.2 hPa

Wind History from BIX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S11S11S9S12S13S13S12S15
G21
S15S13S14S12S9S10S8SW10SW12SW12SW9N7NW4CalmCalm
1 day agoS16
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S12S16
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2 days agoE11
G19
SE10E14SE21
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SE15
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SE15
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SE21SE22
G33
SE16
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G24

Tide / Current Tables for Horn Island, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi
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Horn Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:32 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:16 AM CDT     2.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:37 PM CDT     -0.45 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:40 PM CDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-00.20.50.711.21.41.61.922.12.121.71.41.10.70.3-0-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chandeleur Light, Louisiana
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Chandeleur Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:55 AM CDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:34 AM CDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:47 AM CDT     1.63 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:00 PM CDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:40 PM CDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:55 PM CDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-00.20.40.60.811.21.41.51.61.61.61.41.210.70.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.