Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gulf Park Estates, MS

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:09PM Friday March 24, 2017 9:09 AM CDT (14:09 UTC) Moonrise 4:36AMMoonset 3:52PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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GMZ532 Mississippi Sound- 346 Am Cdt Fri Mar 24 2017
.small craft exercise caution in effect through this evening...
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Showers and Thunderstorms likely.
Saturday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday and Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday..South winds near 10 knots. Waves 1 foot. Dominant period 4 seconds. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Dominant period 4 seconds.
GMZ500 Synopsis Pascagoula To Sw Pass Mississippi- Synopsis Sw Pass Mississippi River To Atchafalaya River- 346 Am Cdt Fri Mar 24 2017
Synopsis..A storm system developing in the great plains will produce strong onshore flow through the weekend. Thunderstorms will affect the coastal waters on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gulf Park Estates, MS
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location: 30.15, -88.72     debug


Area Discussion for - New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
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Fxus64 klix 241302
afdlix
area forecast discussion
national weather service new orleans la
802 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017

Sounding discussion...

the sounding has an increase in moisture below an elevated
inversion at 850 mb. It is the return of gulf air with strong
onshore flow and there have been a couple spot showers across the
mississippi coast early this morning. Winds are southeast at 30
kts by 950 mb then become more southerly through 550 mb and switch
to west above. Today will be breezy as winds mix to the sfc with
daytime heating. Above the inversion the airmass is much drier and
overall pw is just above average at 1 inch.

Krautmann

Prev discussion /issued 352 am cdt Fri mar 24 2017/
short term...

the possibility of strong to severe convection later tonight and
Saturday is the main concern during the short term period. Prior
to that, another warm and fairly tranquil day is in store for the
forecast area. More in the way of cloud cover is expected today
when compared to the last dew days. Highs will be in the upper 70s
and lower 80s in most locations. An isolated shower or
thunderstorm will be possible this afternoon.

A much better chance for thunderstorms will be in the offing late
tonight and especially during the day Saturday as an upper level
low/trough pulling out of the southwest CONUS moves across the
southern plains today and into the mid mississippi valley by
Saturday. Convection will increase across the lower mississippi
valley late today and tonight as large scale lift increases
across the region ahead of the approaching system. Although a few
showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the evening, the
main convection will begin to push into the northwest sections of
the forecast after midnight tonight, perhaps even well after
midnight and during the early morning hours Saturday. The
convection will then translate eastward during the day Saturday.

Forecast soundings indicate an unstable atmosphere will be in
place and CAPE values will range from around 800 to 1500 j/kg.

Relatively low forecasted wbz heights suggest the possibility of
large hail with some of the storms. Forecasted SRH values in the
200 to 300 m2/s2 range later tonight and early Saturday along with
fairly low LFC heights indicate some threat of tornadoes will
exist. It would appear that the tornado threat will diminish
somewhat during the day Saturday as low level winds become more
unidirectional. Decent upper level divergence aloft should aid the
convection during the period from late tonight through Saturday.

With this said, it appears the the greatest severe weather threat
will remain north of the forecast where the overall best dynamics
will exist. Locally, the main severe weather threats will be
damaging thunderstorms winds gusts and large hail. An isolated
tornado or two is also possible. SPC has included the western
sections of the forecast area in a marginal risk for severe
thunderstorms late tonight, and the entire area in a slight risk
for severe weather on Saturday. The convection will diminish
Saturday night as the upper system pulls off to the northeast. The
associated cold front will not push through the area. 11
long term...

a warm period will prevail Sunday and through the work week with
a few bouts of convection. The next chance for showers and
thunderstorms will occur Monday and Monday night as an upper
trough moves east across the mississippi valley. Severe weather is
not expected with this system. Again, an associated cold front
will not make through the forecast area. Another round of
convection is expected Wednesday night and Thursday as a vigorous
upper low/trough moves across the lower/mid mississippi valley.

This system may have a better chance of producing strong to severe
thunderstorms across the area during this time frame. Again it
appears that a cold frontal passage with this system is unlikely.

11
aviation...

terminals reporting MVFR ceilings, except kbtr, where ceilings are
into the ifr range at fl009. Potential for most terminals to fall
into the upper end of the ifr range for an hour or two right around
sunrise. Improvement toVFR is expected at most terminals during the
morning, continuing through the day. Should see MVFR ceilings return
after sunset. One change with the 12z package is likely to be
delaying onset of tsra until after 12z Saturday, as most of the
mesoscale modeling is now showing the expected line of convection to
still be near or west of the atchafalaya river at 12z. 35
marine...

will maintain small craft advisories as currently depicted, and will
extend small craft exercise caution headlines through 00z Saturday
for remainder of coastal waters. Headlines of some sort will be
necessary tonight and Saturday as well. Gradient should relax enough
by late in the day Saturday for headlines to be dropped. Beyond
that, winds should remain below 15 knots for much of the time from
Saturday night into Tuesday or Wednesday. We are looking at a
prolonged period of southerly winds for the next week or so, outside
of convection. This should eventually produce some swell to enhance
wave heights by the end of the forecast period. 35
decision support...

dss code: green.

Deployed: none.

Activation: none.

Activities: assessing convective threat for late tonight/Saturday.

Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.

Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.

Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support.

Orange = high impacts; slight to moderate risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.

Red = full engagement for moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; events of national significance.

Preliminary point temps/pops
Mcb 80 65 79 61 / 20 50 70 30
btr 82 67 80 62 / 20 50 70 20
asd 81 65 79 62 / 20 30 70 30
msy 81 68 81 66 / 20 30 70 20
gpt 76 65 76 63 / 20 20 70 30
pql 78 62 78 62 / 20 10 70 40

Lix watches/warnings/advisories
La... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz536-557-
570-572-575-577.

Ms... None.

Gm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for gmz557-570-
572-575-577.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
42067 - USM3M02 8 mi150 min SE 21 G 23 70°F 6 ft1022.6 hPa67°F
PTBM6 - 8741003 - Petit Bois Island, MS 12 mi52 min ESE 17 G 24 69°F 1024.7 hPa
DKCM6 - 8741501 - Dock C, Pascagoula, MS 16 mi52 min SE 17 G 24 70°F 1023.9 hPa
RARM6 - 8741094 - Range A rear, Pascagoula, MS 17 mi52 min ESE 15 G 19 71°F 1023.8 hPa
PNLM6 - 8741533 - Pascagoula NOAA Lab, MS 17 mi52 min 69°F
ULAM6 - 8741041 - Dock E. Port of Pascagoula, MS 18 mi52 min 70°F
GDXM6 - Grand Bay Reserve, MS 21 mi85 min SE 20 70°F 1024 hPa65°F
KATA1 - Katrina Cut, AL 28 mi70 min SE 25 1023.7 hPa (+1.0)
CRTA1 - Cedar Point, AL 33 mi70 min SE 21 70°F 1024.4 hPa (+1.4)
WYCM6 - 8747437 - Bay Waveland Yacht Club, MS 34 mi52 min SE 18 G 23 71°F 71°F1022.6 hPa
DPIA1 - Dauphin Island, AL 35 mi70 min ESE 24 G 27 69°F 1024 hPa (+1.2)
FMOA1 - 8734673 - Fort Morgan, AL 37 mi52 min SE 25 G 29 70°F
MBLA1 - Middle Bay Light, AL 42 mi70 min ESE 27 69°F 1023.7 hPa (+1.4)
MCGA1 - 8736897 - Coast Guard Sector Mobile, AL 49 mi52 min SE 14 G 19 69°F 69°F1025.3 hPa
OSTF1 - Stennis Test Facility 49 mi80 min SSE 5.8 G 14 71°F 1022.9 hPa (+0.9)67°F
BSCA1 - Bon Secour, AL 49 mi40 min SE 21 1024 hPa

Wind History for Petit Bois Island, Port of Pascagoula, MS
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Keesler Air Force Base / Biloxi, MS22 mi72 minSE 13 G 2010.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F65°F85%1023.6 hPa
Moss Point - Trent Lott International Airport, MS24 mi17 minSE 14 G 2410.00 miOvercast72°F62°F71%1024.6 hPa

Wind History from BIX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9SE9SE12SE11SE14SE16SE17
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1 day agoN10NW8N5N8N6SW11SW9SW13W11SW10CalmCalmCalmNE5NE3NE3NE4NE6NE7E6NE6NE5NE5E6
2 days agoW5W4SW12SW14SW16
G21
SW15SW16SW12
G20
SW14SW12SW7SW8SW6W5CalmW3W4W3NW3W4CalmNW3NW7N8

Tide / Current Tables for Horn Island, Mississippi Sound, Mississippi
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Horn Island
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:35 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:09 AM CDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:53 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:51 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:08 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:53 PM CDT     1.35 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.80.60.40.30.20.20.20.20.30.50.60.70.80.9111.21.31.31.41.31.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Chandeleur Light, Louisiana
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Chandeleur Light
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:36 AM CDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:20 AM CDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM CDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 03:52 PM CDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:09 PM CDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:06 PM CDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.50.30.20.1-0-0.1-0.1-00.10.20.30.40.40.50.60.70.70.80.90.90.90.90.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Southeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Mobile, AL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Gulf Stream Current


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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.